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Good morning,
The Waddell & Reed Kansas City Marathon, Half-Marathon & 5k is just two ways away. I waited until today to post a forecast to be sure that there would be little change to the forecast between now and start time. Last year was a warm race by any standards. It was in the in the mid 50s to start and climbed to the upper 70s by noon. This year looks much better. Why is that important? Because, when the air temperature is cooler, your body doesn't use as much energy trying to stay cool. Cooler temp = less energy, less energy needed = better, faster (?) run! Check out the temperature forecast for 8AM Saturday, an hour into the race. The 5k will be over by this point, the average half marathoner will be a little over half way through it and the marathoners will be settling in to a race pace they will carry for the next 10-14 miles.
By around 11:00am, the elite runners, will be done, the average marathoner will have hit wall and be holding, the legs will be sore but the threat of leg cramps, if you drink enough fluids should be lessened because of the temperatures. Below, the predicted 11am conditions.
Winds appear light for the entire race. A little light breeze might be welcome about this time to help keep runners cool. Make sure and watch Friday morning from 5 to 7am. I will be live at the KC Health & Fitness Expo inside the Crown Center Exhibit Hall A, its connected to the Hyatt Regency Crown Center at Pershing & McGee. Its free, open to the public. It's open Thursday from 4 to 9 p.m. and Friday 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Have a great day,
Brett
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Good morning,
More marathons are run in the month of October than any other month of the year. Cool, crisp mornings with cool conditions persisting into the afternoon can make ideal conditions. I posted some research earlier this year on this blog that described the perfect marathon as one where the temperature was a chilly 41 degrees at the start and never sees the temperature rise above 60. Lately though, chilly days like that have been the exception and not the norm.
Take last year's Chicago marathon, at the start, the temperature was 80 degrees and it just got hotter and more humid. Race officials stopped the marathon due to lack of water at aid stations and several heat related injuries. Lots of Kansas Citians are heading north this weekend to run Chicago and hoping for better weather. I can tell you this, it does not look like a repeat of last year's race but it is looking like another warm marathon. Here is the projected start time temperature, Sunday morning at 8am.
60 degrees and somewhat humid, there is a chance that it is quite cloudy but my feeling after seeing the latest data is that if its overcast, its just a thin veil of clouds that clears by mid-race. Winds should be out of the southeast at 10-15 mph.
The elite runners will finish in less than 3 hours, so they will be finished before things get WARM. Here are the noon time temps for Chicago on Sunday.
It looks like by that time the sun could be back out with the humidity climbing. Don't forget the Waddell & Reed Kansas City Marathon/Half Marathon & 5K is next Saturday, October 18th. Last year we experienced temperatures near 60 degrees at the starting line and warmed well into the 70s by the time the last runner crossed the finished line (No it wasn't me, but I was close). A quick peak at the long range models for next Saturday reveals a potentially cool morning (upper 40s to 50) and a warm (70) partly cloudy finish. If you are running Chicago, Good Luck, have a great race, relax and enjoy it. 90% of the work is over, the marathon is your victory lap!(A very long one) I'll have more on the KC marathon on this blog and on NBC Action News Today (5am-7am) all next week.
Brett
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Good morning,
This weekend the weather looks unbelieveably beautiful. That is great news for Crown Center's Annual Pumpkin Patch.
A great event where you will find 30-thousand pumpkins will be piled high. Admission is free but you do have pay for tickets to the games and the pumpkins. The pumpkin patch benefits the Children's TLC (Therapeutic Learning Center), a great non-profit organization that offers evidence-based therapeutic and educational services in a variety of settings to children with and without disabilities. A team of professionals works with the family to assess each child’s individual needs. Together, they help each child overcome obstacles and reach his or her personal goals. Our families are active members of the treatment team and help to determine therapy objectives and evaluate outcomes.
There is a kids costume contest at 12:30, free entertainment on the stage and lots, lots more. I'll be out there emceeing so come out and say hi.
So will the weather be as sunny as the above photo? In a word, YES! and look at the forecast highs for Saturday afternoon.
Yes, that is a high of 80, if not a degree or two warmer. It may a little breezy but otherwise very nice. This will be a welcome change since last year the event was washed out by toreential rains.
Have a great Wednesday,
Brett
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Good morning,
When my son signed up to play Upward Flag Football through the College Church of the Nazarene in Olathe, his team the Buffalos needed a coach. I volunteered and then wondered "what have I gotten myself into". Well, 7-weeks and 4 games into the season, I am so glad I gave it a try. The first and second graders that make up our team are the greatest bunch of kids a coach could ask for. Everyone of them is eager to learn, eager to play different positions and above all, they display great sportsmanship. The Upward Sports Mantra is "Every child is winner". The league is designed to give kids of equal playing experience and ability a chance to match up and most of all have fun. At this young age, we don't keep score. (Not supposed to anyway, but I know the kids are keeping it in their heads, they keep asking if we won.) We're not focusing on the outcome, but on developing basic skills. Its a great program. I also have two great dad helping out as assistant coaches, Brent Driggers and Clint Sprague. They are patient, give great instruction and are both having as much fun as me. Thank you Brent & Clint. Anyway, here is a picture of me in action this past weekend, right before our offense was about to run a play.
Our playbook is really simple, but in case you are wondering---No. All of our plays are not named after weather terms, but imagine...running plays called the blizzard or short passing routes called Gustnadoes, or an all out blitz called the "Tornado". Come to think it, maybe we'll work on something for this Friday night's game.
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Good morning,
It was pretty cool out there this morning. Some of our bloggers who commented on the weather blog reported morning lows from 40 degrees at 130th & State Ave in KCK to near 45 in Paola. Quite a spread across the area. Seems that geography played a role in some of the deviation. The coolest reading came from Lawson, MO where the temperature dipped to 37.7 but blogger Watkins Gal said the temperature reading was taken in a valley. Cold air does tend to drain downhill because it is more dense. So low lying areas were likely the coolest this morning. Also pretty cool this morning was the fog. Jack Dannell sent me this picture from near Lone Jack. You can clearly see how this low lying area was also very conducive for fog formation.
The water tower sits up on a hill so the air cooled enough at the base of the hill to reach the dew point and a dense stratus cloud (or fog) to develop.
Have a great Thursday,
Brett
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Good morning,
I thought it was about time I posted a new blog. Ike is long gone but weirdly enough still causing problems and people are still trying to get lives back to normal. Laura is the latest tropical storm and I'm starting wonder if it isn't the last. Probably not, but things certainly have quieted down in the tropics. There are no signs of tropical development this week and now we are past the peak season. Meantime, Tropical Storm Laura continues to weaken and head toward the Bristish Isles.
So far we have 12 named storms, slightly above average for the entire season. As for the month of October, most tropical systems now start to flare up in the Carribean more so than the Eastern Atlantic. Without a lot open water to work with, most of the storms that develop would likely only reach Tropical Storm or weak hurricane status. But like I said, I didn't see any evidence in any of the data this morning of much activity if any in the next week to 10 days.
Have a great day, Brett
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Good Tuesday Morning,
Hurricane Ike is creating a lot discussion. Here is the latest hi-res snapshot of Ike from one of NASA's satellites. It has an eye and as of Tuesday morning was a category one hurricane with max winds around 80 miles per hour.
Looking at the satellite picture, it appears "Ike" is gaining strength. The eye is just off the south central Cuban coast and it is forecast to move out over the warm waters of the Gulf. But where does it go from there?
Just look at the variance...central Mexico to southwest Louisiana. The European model is the one that takes it into southwest Louisiana, the NAM shoves it farther south into northern Mexico. The track, generally used by most national forecasts is the one that splits the difference and goes right down the middle. If you have been watching this closely, you may have noticed the track has changed every day farther south & west. So is the trend farther south and west or will the European model be right and is a right hand turn in the cards? The only thing agreed upon is a Saturday landfall. Where do you think "Ike" will make landfall? Let me know, maybe we can come up with a consensus.
Brett
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Happy Friday,
It is a little over 5 months away and now is the time to mark your calendars. Here is a challenege to all of you who say you love cold weather. Join me on January 31st for the Polar Bear Plunge at Longview Lake. We jump in the icy water around 2pm, not the coldest part of the day and who knows you could get lucky and have temperatures near 50 degrees just like last year. Its for a great cause, Special Olympics-Missouri. If its like last year, you raise 80-dollars and you get to jump in the lake. Raise a lot more and you could win a great prize. You are helping some great atheletes compete and have fun.
New this year is the "Super Plunge"  Plungers will jump in the lake once an hour for 24 straight hours. Can you imagine if it turns out to be the coldest stretch of winter, what that will be like? Wow, whoever goes this far deserves some big donations. So come on and get a team together to plunge. You can wear a crazy costume and get freezin for a reason. For more information visit. www.somo.org
Have a nice, warm weekend,
Brett
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Good morning,
Overnight, "Hanna" spun over Hispaniola and the Bahamas causing destruction on those islands. If you look closely at the high res satellite image courtesy of NASA you can see how those two land-masses have sheared the storm apart, if only just a bit. But enough that Hanna is now a tropical storm.
Where will Hanna go? She seems destined for the southeast coast of the U-S, but where?
The latest GFS computer model, one that handled the track of Gustav very well, places "Hanna" near Myrtle Beach on Saturday. It will be close enough to the coast that if you have travel plans later this week or this weekend any where from the Space Coast of Florida up to the beaches of North Carolina you will be impacted in one shape or form from this storm. It could be rough surf or heavy rain or gusty winds.
Have a great Wednesday,
Brett
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Good morning,
NASA's satellite passed over Hurricane Hanna and look at this amazing high resolution snapshot of the storm as it moved over the Bahamas. Early Tuesday, the maximum winds were 70 miles per hour and it was chugging west at 2 miles an hour. Forecast models have Hanna heading to northwest and making landfall Friday between northeast Florida and southast Georgia.
On top of Hanna, there is Tropical Storm Ike and Tropical Depression #10, likely to become "Josephine" later Tuesday. It appears to be very active in the Atlantic Basin and it should be were are approaching the peak of hurricane season.
The season peaks around September 10th, with a slow decline through the end of the month and then a rapid decline in activity from October 20th to November 10th. Where do most of the September hurricanes originate and travel. "Gustav", "Hanna" and Ike all appear to be following climatology when we look at where September tropical storms originate and travel.
Follow the key in the upper right hand corner of the graphic to see the most likely track a September tropical storm takes. Note where they start, "Ike" is following climatology. How about Gustav, formed south of Jamaica and made landfall in Louisiana. Nothing out of the ordinary, but what may be unusual is to have four storms in different stages all active. So far it appears the Hurricane forecasters have hit their mark for an active season.
Have a great day,
Brett
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Happy Friday,
Here we go, the last weekend of the month. Looks like the weather will cooperate with our fishing fortunes. Cool mornings, warmer afternoons. Fishing may pick up a bit. Water temperatures are cooling a bit, now ranging from 76 degrees at Smithville Lake up to 83 at the Lake of the Ozarks. Most of the reports are for fair to slow fishing but some late reports had some species of bass hitting early and late in the day. I've had these pictures in my possesion for a couple of weeks but this is a good weekend to share them, This is my neighbor Aaron Todd with a whopper of a Largemouth Bass. He caught it at a farm pond up in northern Missouri.
We were using powerbaits and topwater lures. I was using something called a motochug, it has unbelieveable action and man when I tossed that in the water, "WHAM!" Here is what I caught,
Good luck this weekend ! Have a Happy & safe Labor Day Holiday.
Brett
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Good morning,
The weather this weekend is looking good. Especially if you like to run. Saturday morning the NAM forecasts temperatures in the low 50s with low humidity. Sunday morning will be a little warmer and more humid but still good weather for the "Human Race".
What is the human race?
Nike is trying to get 1 million people to run a 10K by hosting races in 25 countries and 4 U.S. cities along with a host of virtual races like Kansas City. There is no fee to participate but you can purchase a shirt like this one.
Or contribute to one of several charities like the Live Strong Foundation. You can also get the Nike+ Sportband, its the black watching looking thing at the top of the picture. The Sportsband tracks the number of miles you run and you can upload your data to a website that adds up all the miles you have run or your team has run. The race starts at 7:30am, Sunday at the 119th & Quivira Garry Gribble's store. To participate, simply RSVP at 913-469-4090. The first 100 runners to do so will receive a free gift from Nike. Click here to Join the Challenge www.nikeplus.com
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Happy Monday,
As we celebrate our great weather here in the metro, the folks to our west had an exciting Sunday. Check out this picture we got into the NBC Action Weather Center. It comes to us from Patricia Wilson who lives south of Denver in Castle Rock. It looks really close but Patricia estimates the tornado was about 5 to 10 minutes away from her house.
I have seen a couple perspectives of this storm from various sources; i.e video, pictures. From this vantage point it looks more like a landspout as a parent thunderstorm cloud is not real apparent to me. It didn't last long, check out the next picture.
It appears here the tornado is roping out or weakening, it wasn't long after this the twister fell apart. There were no reports of damage and no one was hurt thankfully. Still, yesterday in Colorado there were 8 reports of tornadoes. Oh by the way, the 2009 Farmer's Almanac is out and predicts a snowier than average winter for us and below average temperatures in January & February.
Have a great Monday,
Brett
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Good morning,
Checking out the models this morning, it was interesting to look at the forecast path of Tropical Storm Fay. The GFS had an interesting solution. Check it out below. The Map below is valid for this Monday morning around 1AM Kansas City time. I circled "Fay". It may no longer be a tropical storm but it looks as if it will still be a strong low pressure system throughout this weekend.
So where it will go? Will it meander back out into the Gulf? It seems cut-off from the main flow, so will it sit and cause day after day of rainy weather for the panhandle of Florida and the Gulf coast? In the meantime check out the hi-res picture of "Fay" taken by a NASA satellite earlier this week.
Fay made landfall early Tuesday near Cape Ramano in SW Florida. Winds were sustained around 60 mph but gradually weakened as the day wore on. So what will happen with Fay? I'd love to hear your predictions!
Have a great day,
Brett
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Hi, lots to talk about this morning and some pictures for you. I'm getting some reports that the fishing is slowing down. It may but last Friday night, I caught some great bass at a farm pond north of Cameron, Missouri and the Missouri department of Conservation reports fair to good fishing for Crappie, Bass, bluegill & Catfish. Water temps have cooled a bit this week so the fishing may pick up again if it is slowing down in your neck of the woods. By the way, topwater lures and plastic worms seem to be a hit for bass. My friend Aaron caught some nice Crappie last week with something called "Powerbaits"
Got this email from John King who went fishing with his brother David and nephew Theo. Check out the pictures after the e-mail.
"Theo and I got up early (5:00 a.m.) on July 29th and were on the water before sun-up. We caught several crappie, bluegills and bass. We kept a few and around ten went in for a break and I got to cleaning fish. Then Dave shows up and wants to take Theo out for some more fishing. After I got done cleaning fish they came and got me and we caught a bunch more.
Although it was hot as blazes we still caught a bunch of fish. 40+ crappies and some bass, bluegills and perch all told. We only kept about a dozen or so however because this old man is only willing to do so much cleanin'!
It was great for Theo who lives in Arizona and was up here on a visit. He doesn't get to fish much down there as they live in Phoenix where fishin' holes are pretty scarce."
Blogger Adam sent me this side note,
"I called down to a fishing guide that I go with down in Branson, and taneycomo is almost unfishable because of the flooding. He said that we might be able to catch some trout in the parking lot!!!!"
The Kansas Department of Wildlife & Parks reports most area lakes are experiencing slow to fair fishing.
Good Luck this weekend,
Brett
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