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IT'S FRIDAY!

We are heading into the holiday season next week and the weather pattern is going through a major change.  It does now appear likely that a storm will affect our local area around Thanksgiving Day.  As this weather pattern reveals itself more and more every day, we are getting closer to identifying the cycle in this years LRC.   There are likely three major longwave features that keep showing up.  I will talk about one of them now, and when our winter forecast comes out Monday night we will go into extensive detail on what we believe to be a fascinating weather pattern, one that will bring some rather wild weather across parts of the nation this winter. 

One of the features that has shown up a few times already is a split flow near the west coast of the United States.  Look at the map below:

The flow aloft is splitting big time just off the west coast of the United States by early next week.  This map, above, is valid at midnight next Wednesday night and it shows a storm that has dropped into the southwest part of the nation centered near Salt Lake City, UT.  Just upstream, or northwest of this developing storm is where the split is located.  Notice how the flow at 500 mb takes off to the north going way up into northern Canada. This is the northern branch of the jet stream.  The southern branch of the jet stream breaks off and heads south, off the California coast curving around into the southern plains.  This set up almost guarantees that we will experience some kind of a storm later next week, right around the day after Thanksgiving.  When the flow splits like this the models have a very difficult time and make many major errors.  If you have been paying close attention to the computer models then you know they have been all over the place offering many different solutions for the holiday week and beyond.  So, confidence may be growing that we will have a storm later next week, but at the same time there are still many questions that will slowly be answered in the coming days.

There is a very good chance that the split will lead to a very high amplitude weather pattern in about 10 days.  A big ridge will likely develop near the west coast of Canada or just off shore during this extended forecast period and we have to watch this carefully for our first signs of Arctic air mass generation.

The 06z GFS run has a snowstorm near Kansas City within a week.  And, this is something that is possible, but as discussed above with the developing split flow the computer models are making major errors after day one.  So, we will be monitoring the holiday week forecast and updating it as we get closer.  We will be making some special graphics to describe all of this today and tonight on NBC Action News.  Jeremy Nelson will keep you advised on the trends over the weekend, so check back in Saturday and Sunday.  And, then Monday night at 10 PM........The NBC Action News Winter Forecast.   I will be doing an extended on-line version by sometime Tuesday as well.

Yesterday, Stormy and I went to the "Thanks for Seniors" Thanksgiving meal in Mission, KS.  Here are a couple of pictures. It was really a great and fun event. Thank you for having us there!

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Afternoon update:  Wow, what a day!  We did reach 66 downtown and 64 at KCI.  We had been forecasting 62 to 65 degrees for today's high for the past week so we are quite proud of today's forecast on the big warm-up.  The cold front is about to blast through!  We will be tracking these changes and look ahead into Thanksgiving week at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

We are five nights away from our winter forecast.  It will be on NBC Action News at 10 PM Monday night. 

So, what is this weather pattern that we believe is now in place and cycling?  It is very complex as we see one major storm track that dives down over the plains into eastern troughs, and another part of the pattern, a second storm track that does break into the west coast with storm systems dropping in west and southwest of Kansas City.  We are currently waiting for this second storm track to return and it has been frustrating waiting for the models to predict this trend.  But, we are expecting it at any time.  I wouldn't mind if it would hold off until after next week, one of the biggest travel weeks of the year.  But, my confidence is still low on it staying dry all next week.  More on this forecast tonight on NBC Action News.

Does what happens in November really matter for what is about to happen this winter?  Let's compare last November to November, 2008:

Average temperature:

2007:  1.2 degrees above average   2008:  1.2 degrees above average

Precipitation: 

0.20"  (0.4" of snow)         2008:  1.18" (trace of snow)

Days 60 degrees or higher:

2007:   10 of the first 20 days    2008:  6 (so far)

Last year, the first 20 days of November were much above average with no measurable precipitation.  Then it snowed twice on the 21st and the 24th as much colder air moved in, but it was still a dry month of November.  This year has been very different as we have had at least a trace of precipitation at KCI 9 of the first 18 days of this month.  It has been much wetter than last year, after a wet September and October.  And, we still don't know how the last 10 days of the month will pan out, although there isn't a strong storm showing up at this moment. 

What does this mean for the rest of the winter?  Perhaps not much! Last November was dry and rather warm, at least the first 20 days were warm, and then it was a cold and wild ride through winter. We believe that the weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th and then begins cycling (Go to www.LRCWeather.com for more on my weather pattern theory the LRC).  So, we believe that the weather pattern is set, but what happens specifically in November may or may not be an indicator of what happens the next few months.  More likely it is what happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere during the last six weeks leading up to today.  And, this part of the weather pattern has been just fascinating.  I will add a lot more thoughts on what all of this means very soon.

Now, onto today's weather:

The above map is the forecast surface map from the RUC model valid at 11 AM this morning.  The leading edge of the north winds and colder air will be surging our way as we move into the afternoon, and by this evening that cold front (the blue line) will be way past Kansas City.  Look at the strong surface high that was generated in Canada.  This has a central pressure of around 1047 mb, or 30.91".  Last winter we barely had surface highs that strong all season long.  This could be a sign of things to come.  Right now there is hardly any true Arctic air that has built up.  We will have to keep monitoring northern Canada and Alaska closely for the development of any Arctic air masses.  This will be a strong cold front, however and we could drop all the way into the teens by Friday morning.  And, we are still watching that Pacific storm closely for Friday night.  Unless it makes a turn southeast and holds together our chance of any snow Friday night will stay slim. 

The European model and the GFS model are both showing a stormier trend within about 10 days. I will talk about this change on the air tonight.

Have a fantastic day!  Remember our winter forecast is just 5 days away, Monday night at 10 PM on NBC Action News.

Gary

Our Winter Forecast will be on NBC Action News one week from tonight!

Good morning bloggers,

We just had a rather interesting weekend of weather.  Our first snowflakes fell Saturday, and then Sunday was beautiful with temperatures warming to near 60 degrees.  These ups and downs are going to continue this week.  Colder air masses are now strengthening across Canada, and we could have a chance of some more snowflakes before the week is over.  But, first, what is going on with the developing LRC?

The LRC is now set and cycling (go to www.LRCweather.com for more details).  We have yet to identify the cycle length which has always taken until sometime in December to really figure it out.  As soon as we see a clear repeat to the weather pattern, then we will know how long the cycle is.  So, be patient.  Another major part of the LRC is identifying the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges over the northern hemisphere.    We have tracked many longwaves since we moved into October and this analysis continues this week.  The latest 06z GFS run is quite fascinating as it has a series of storm systems developing that could begin affecting us soon.  And, the overnight European model agrees with the 06z GFS in the series of storm systems.  Once we "know" this years LRC, then we will know where the models are wrong and when they have the right idea and trend.  Right now we strongly favor the latest model runs, but don't get too emotional from run to run.  We will see what the trend is on this mornings models, but I am expecting a very exciting run today.

It is back down today, then up, up and away on Wednesday as temperatures jump ahead of a strong cold front on Thursday.  An upper level storm may move close by on Friday and we will be watching this weak system closely as some of the models have a threat of snow near us with this northwest flow storm.  The snowflake contest continues until we have our first inch of snow at the KSHB-TV studios.  We had over 5,500 entries this year, and about 15% of them have already been eliminated.

Have a great day. And, remember, our Winter Forecast will be on one week from tonight at 10 PM.

Gary

***Tune in Monday, November 24 at 10 p.m. for Kansas City's most accurate Winter Forecast***

The title of the blog will be the weather theme for about the next 3-5 days.  Lots of ups and downs are on the way...with today being a definite down!  Highs were around 40 today, but most of those occurred just after midnight.  Mainly upper 30s were observed Saturday afternoon.  But the cold was half the story since winds gusted near 30 mph and we also recorded our first trace of snow at KCI.  For more information on the snow and some climatological numbers related to average snow dates please see my previous blog.

The cold push of air that arrived yesterday and today was something we were discussing almost 7 days ago.  Last weekend I even blogged about possible snowflakes with this system for Kansas City.  While this wasn't a major precipitation maker, it was a huge change and our accurate forecast leading up to this event is a good reminder why so many people continue to participate in our blog and watch our weather segments each day.  A huge thank you to everyone!

Alright, time to discuss some of the changes ahead this week.  The previous blog displayed a surface map for Sunday with temperatures in the 50s.  Now let's look at the 850mb temperature map.  Notice the push of warmer air about 1500 meters above the surface.  Around Kansas City the 850mb temperatures on this map are about 7-8C.

After Sunday another shot of colder air will drop in and as a result by Monday highs will be back in the 40s.  There are a few holiday lighting ceremonies around the area Monday evening, and if you attend plan for temperatures from 40-35.

Below is the forecast surface map for Monday.  The cold front is well to the south of the area.  Lurking on the horizon is a warm front that may push highs back into the 60s by Wednesday.  The key this time of year to any warm-up is if the warmest air aloft can arrive during the day and peak heating.  With the shorter days big warm-ups get tougher the farther we head into November and December.

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With the cold air moving in on Monday and a good warm-up possibly in the cards for Wednesday, Tuesday will be a 'transitional' day with a cold morning in the 20s and afternoon highs in the upper 40s to 50s.  By Wednesday the GFS is advertising a warmer day with a front arriving late.  If this is the case highs well into the 60s look possible at this moment.

These quick moving fronts will be our main forecast challenges the next 3-5 days.  With little to no moisture to work with I think most of these fronts should move through dry.  

Finally we always mention that severe weather can occur anywhere at anytime of year.  Very early Saturday morning deadly tornadoes moved thru North Carolina killing 2 people.  Here is the preliminary NWS storm survey from one of the 7 tornadoes that was reported.  This was an EF-3 tornado.

...TORNADO SURVEY OF EF-3 TORNADO NEAR WILSON AND ELM CITY IN WILSON
COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WILSON COUNTY EMERGENCY SERVICES AND WILSON FIRE AND RESCUE...DETERMINED THAT AN EF-3 TORNADO OCCURRED IN WILSON COUNTY. THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG A DISCONTINUOUS...APPROXIMATELY EIGHT-MILE PATH THAT BEGAN WITH
MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A DWELLING AND A SNAPPED TREE ALONG HARRISON DRIVE JUST SOUTH OF WARD BOULEVARD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS THEN NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG LONDON CHURCH ROAD...SOUTH OF ROUTE 1330.

ON LONDON CHURCH ROAD...ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND SWEPT OFF OF ITS FOUNDATION. BASED ON EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS AND THE DAMAGE...FIRE AND RESCUE ESTIMATE THE HOME ROLLED AS MANY AS FOUR TIMES. IN THIS HOME...THERE WAS UNFORTUNATELY ONE FATALITY AND TWO INJURIES.

ACROSS THE ROAD FROM THIS HOME TO THE NORTHEAST...THE UPPER
PORTION OF A HOME WAS DESTROYED...AND ANOTHER HOME HAD A ROOF COMPLETELY BLOWN AWAY WITH TREES ON TOP OF IT. IN THIS LATTER HOME...EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS NOTED THERE WERE TWO MORE INJURIES...CONDITIONS UNKNOWN. OTHER EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUGGESTED THERE WAS LITTLE NOISE WITH THE EVENT UNTIL THE TORNADO STRUCK. SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS WERE AWAKE FOR VARIOUS REASONS AROUND 330 AM...AND IT WAS JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER THIS WHEN THE TORNADO STRUCK THE LONDON CHURCH ROAD AREA...ESTIMATED TO BE AT 340 AM.

THE TORNADO THEN FOLLOWED A DISCONTINUOUS PATH INTO ELM CITY.
THERE WERE NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF TREE DAMAGE IN ELM CITY WITH A PORCH ROOF BLOWN OFF...AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED OR TOPPLED.  FINALLY...THE LAST NOTICEABLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG ROUTE 1400...AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HEFNER ROAD AND ROUTE 1402...WHERE SMALL CLUSTERS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. THE DAMAGE IN AND NORTHEAST OF ELM CITY WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 DAMAGE.

TIME/DATE: ESTIMATED FROM 330 AM TO 345 AM EST, SATURDAY NOVEMBER
15, 2008
PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH: APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES DISCONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
INJURIES: 4 KNOWN
FATALITIES: 1

Thank you for stopping by the weather blog and don't forget you can catch our newscasts weekends from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m.  Make sure to remind your friends and family to watch the winter forecast on November 24th! 

Jeremy 

The NBC Action News Winter Forecast will be issued at 10 PM on November 24th!

Good morning bloggers,

IT'S FRIDAY!  A cold front will move through this morning.  This is not an Arctic cold front as the air is much more Pacific in origin, but it will produce a lot of wind later today and tonight as the pressure gradient tightens.  Many locations are still near 50 degrees this morning and with some sunshine and a downsloping northwest wind I am expecting temperatures to rise a degree or two today despite this cold front coming through.  There is a lot of cold air aloft that will surge over us today.  When the cold air moves over the relatively warmer air near the surface, combined with a developing deep trough aloft, some showers will likely form.  By tonight it will be cold enough for snow to be mixed in with these showers but they will be rather sparse.  Will we have our first snowflakes of the season during the next 24 hours?  The chance is very slim!

The jet stream is strengthening today.  Look below at the forecast map valid at 6 PM tonight:

Notice how Kansas City is at the base of the upper level trough.  The 140 to 165 mph core of the jet stream is to our west causing the trough to deepen.  The key on the left shows the numbers in knots.  100 knots is equivalent to around 115 mph.  This trough literally is developing today, deeping, digging, and forming right over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  It will rapidly shift off to the east producing a storm that will quickly move through the eastern states and out of here.  As the heights rise and the jet stream lifts to our northeast we will have the advertised dramatic warm up on Sunday.  But, before this happens we may have just enough ingredients for snow showers tonight or early on Saturday.  Let's all monitor this potential tonight and I will be tracking the developing showers this evening on NBC Action News.

The snowflake contest will not end for quite some time.  We had nearly 6,000 entries in the contest.  Each day around 50-75 people are eliminated.  There are still aound 5,000 people left in the contest and there is still no indication of our first inch of snow happening anytime soon.  The contest ends when one inch of snow falls at the KSHB-TV studios as measured by Brett, Jeremy, Jeff, or myself.

Have a great Friday!  We are on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures for a while.  We will be tracking the rapid warm and cold changes in the forecast today and tonight on NBC Action News.

Gary

Watch the WINTER FORECAST Monday night, November 24th!

Good morning bloggers,

We will talk about the developing weather pattern, the cold front heading our way, and whether or not it is going to become sunny this afternoon.  Let's start with today. 

I was walking Breezy and Stormy around 5:30 this morning and we saw the nearly full moon sneaking out from behind the clouds.  This is a good indication that the sun will make its return by this afternoon.  The clearing line should pass the state line by noon today.  So, we are sticking with our forecast high of 52 degrees.

Now, onto the cold front approaching.  Look below at the forecast surface map for Friday morning:

A cold front will be moving through Friday morning.  There is a disturbance aloft that will also be approaching Friday morning and depending on how it evolves we could see some precipitation on Friday.  Surface cold air will be lacking, so despite the thickness dropping down to critical snow criteria snowflakes may still hold off for now.  It is something to pay close attention to however.  I circled the 540 thickness indicator above.  Thickness is directly related to the temperature of a layer.  540 means 5,400 meters is the distance between the 1,000 mb level (near the surface) and the 500 mb level (around 18,000 feet up).  Kansas City is near the 546 line (the first dotted red line).  This means that the layer between 1,000 mb and 500 mb is 5,460 meters thick, and warmer than the area to our northwest.  We consider the 540 line as the 50% chance that it is cold enough to snow near the surface (below 1,000 feet).   So, watch this first blue dotted line on the surface maps as storm systems move by as one of your forecasting tools.  But, just because we have a 540 thickness or lower doesn't mean it will snow. We have to be able to generate precipitation first.  We will be monitoring this situation and describing it on our weathercasts today and tonight on NBC Action News.

Upper level energy is strengthening/developing over the northeast Gulf of Alaska, southwestern Canada, and the Pacific northwest states.  A longwave trough will be forming east of Kansas City later this week and this will allow a strong cold front to move through.  A longwave trough is a broad big feature that moves slowly.  Shortwave troughs are fast moving upper level storms that carve out the bigger and broader longwaves.  The LRC, my weather pattern theory, describes the mean longwave troughs and ridges that become established every fall and tend to repeat over and over again for months to come.  I call these mean troughs "long term" longwave troughs.  During the past few weeks we have experienced the development of a unique weather pattern of these troughs and ridges that will likely be the determining factor on how we experience winter this year.  Where are these mean troughs and ridges?  A few have dug into the western states.  Many have dug into the central states, and a few in the east.  The weather pattern is obviously very complex and it is something we are still trying to figure out and pin down before our winter forecast airs on November 24th.  I do have a first impression, but I am being very careful and waiting, analyzing, researching, and working on the best way to describe this weather pattern.  So, be patient.  The winter forecast is just days away (one week from Monday night). 

Have a fantastic day!  Is anyone going to see Coldplay Thursday night?  I may be able to go, depending on breaking news.  I would do the weather live from the Sprint Center, outside if everything lines up.

Gary

Good evening everyone,

The first band of rain is moving in, rotatating around the broad upper level storm system.  We will be tracking this storm and much more on NBC Action News tonight.

I have a request for the bloggers tonight.  We are currently putting our winter forecast together.  As we continue to analyze the data and write up the details that we will unveil on our 10 PM newscast two weeks from tonight, we are hoping that you can be a part of the package.  Here is what we would like to have by Friday, if you can get it done by then:

Create your video and upload to our gallery by clicking here: 

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/ugc/cat/winterwxpreview/default.aspx

1. Answer these questions:
   • What is it that you like about winter?
   • What do you dislike about winter?
   • The LRC.....do you believe in it?  What do you think it is?
   • Let's say a winter storm is coming in....do you get excited, concerned, what do you think about as a storm approaches.
   • Anything else that you want to add.
2. We will need this by the weekend.  And, we may or may not include them in the special segment, depending on time.  I may still put your thoughts and video on-line anyway.

Thank you for thinking about this project.  Technology continues to rapidly change.  So, if you know how to do this, give it a shot.

Have a great evening.

Gary