Good afternoon bloggers,

As we are preparing our weathercasts for tonight new data has strongly trended toward a major storm system on Monday into Tuesday.  It is a bit early in this development, but this would affect early holiday travel, and it most likely will track just north of Kansas City.  The latest model runs have trended into a much stronger storm with a likely upper low closing off near the Kansas/Nebraska border.  The latest GFS model (18z) did not trend the way of the other models and I am throwing it out as the odd model out right now.  Let's see what the evening model run does.  We will be monitoring this situation over the weekend.

Have a great Friday Night in the Big Town!

Gary

Good morning bloggers,

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect early this morning for areas south of I-70.  Visibilities have gone down to just a few hundred feet in some locations.  The sky cleared south of I-70 overnight and temperatures dropped and hovered just above freezing.  And, with almost no wind at all dense fog formed as the dewpoint was near 40º when the sky cleared but radiational cooling dropped the temperatures and forced the dewpoint down. The air became supersaturated, but remember that the relative humidity can't be more than 100% and instead dense fog was forced to develop.  At 7 AM, north of I-70 it was around 41º & cloudy, but to the south it was down to 34º with visibilities down to near zero with fog.  Another pretty interesting morning. 

Our next storm system may now be just a cold front early next week.  Take a look at the latest GFS run from the 06z (midnight) model run:

The flow over the Pacific Ocean is strong and pretty much zonal, west to east.  Most of the models were diving the energy into a Rockies trough, but not the GFS.  And, now the other models have trended strongly to the GFS and confidence is growing that this next trough will blow past us on Monday.  With this solution there would be travel problems developing around the Great Lakes states, but for our local region it would be rather dry next week.  This is by no means set in stone yet and we will be monitoring this situation closely.

Our weekend meteorologist Jeremy Nelson has just a few days left with us at NBC Action News. It is a rather exciting move for Jeremy as he has accepted a job in Milwaukee at the ABC affiliate there.  I am very happy for Jeremy, but very sad for our weather team.  He has been a great addition to our team and he will be missed.  Working with Jeremy the past three years has been a great experience as he strengthened our weather team and was fun to work with.  His help with the Action Weather Blog was tremendous adding his own insight and keeping all of the bloggers informed over the weekend and while I was on vacation.  I am sure he will get a good blog going in Milwaukee where he is about to experience more than double the amount of snow we get here in Kansas City (I think it is over 50 inches/year).  I am not so sure he will like that part of the move!  Good luck Jeremy!  His last day will be Sunday night so let's wish him luck as he takes his next career step.

Gary

Good early morning bloggers,

Snow is falling and becoming somewhat heavy early this morning, but this has been an isolated area of snow.  The National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Kansas City Metro area through early this morning.  This area of snow is surrounded by rain and the snow will likely change back to rain soon, but some accumulation will be likely on grassy surfaces, on the tops of cars, and possibly briefly on bridges and overpasses.  As I am writing this it is snowing moderately in Overland Park, Olathe, Leavenworth, and crossing the state line east to Odessa, MO.   But, it is raining just north of this area in Gladstone, MO showing the small area where the snow is actually falling.  It is 39º at Chillicothe with rain and 33º in Downtown Kansas City at 4 AM and snowing.  Take a look at the radar image from 4 AM:

We will continue monitoring this strong disturbance rotating around the powerful upper level storm.  We are expecting it to change back over to rain, but will we get our first inch on the Plaza before this happens?  It looks like it will be only around a dusting to 1/2" before this band exits the area by around sunrise.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony will keep you updated on NBC Action News in HD all morning.  The Winter Forecast was issued last night and we are expecting quite a bit of snow this winter.  You can read it below, and watch the video from our main website at www.NBCActionNews.com.

WINTER FORECAST 2009-2010

The United States is about to experience an unusually wet winter, as a unique weather pattern has set up across North America and the entire Northern Hemisphere.  The weather pattern is cycling and will repeat according to my theory, Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC).  This forecast is based on the LRC:

Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (The LRC)

• A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1^st and November 10^th
• The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.  Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
• Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle.  These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest. 
• The LRC is a winter-long pattern!  There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.  We use our forecasting experience to piece together the LRC for a particular year, and the LRC helps us analyze the upcoming weather.

Analysis of this year’s LRC

Ski areas across Colorado will tell you that something very different is happening this year as they are having a great beginning to their season with many wet snowstorms hitting the high country and some resorts having their earliest-ever opening.  The United States as a whole had its wettest October on record.  These early storm systems are just the beginning as a unique seasonal pattern sets up. 

Here are the dominant features that are becoming evident for 2009-2010 and where they are likely to set up for the LRC.

• A trough near Colorado
• A ridge across the eastern Pacific Ocean between 135º W and 155º W
• A ridge from the Gulf of Mexico extending northeast to the Atlantic Ocean east of the southeastern United States

As usual the jet stream energy will intensify significantly between now and when it reaches peak strength in late January.  But remember: the same long-term long waves will still exist through the winter, spring, and into the early summer months.  As energy increases into the flow across the Northern Hemisphere, the long waves noted above may look very different at times, and the surface weather may vary, but storm systems will still be falling into the long-wave troughs and rising up over the long-wave ridges.  The “same pattern” will seem to have a different look at times, but I will argue that it is still the same one all the way through, with seasonal variations. 

Here is a closer look at the main features that will likely affect the weather pattern this winter:

Dominant feature #1:  Long-term long-wave trough stretching from Montana south through the Four Corners states.

The above map shows where we believe there is a strong long-wave trough.  Energetic flow will quite often strengthen across the eastern Pacific Ocean and drop into the mean trough position regularly during the cycling pattern.  This will lead to the development of very wet storm systems across much of the United States.  The flow aloft will likely split and amplify at times, providing different looks to this same pattern. 

Dominant Features #2 and #3:   A long-term long-wave ridge exists from off the California coast at around 140w extending north into the Gulf of Alaska.  Another long-wave ridge is located off the southeast coast.

The Pacific ridge is a strong feature that showed up during the critical developing phase of this year’s LRC.  You can see where this strong feature is located, above, but it seems strongest at lower latitudes.  When this ridge amplifies it will look a lot like what happened in October, as shown above.  However, when the flow splits, or becomes more zonal then the ridge well off the California coast would be suppressed south leading to strong western storm systems.  There is also a long-wave ridge extending from the central Gulf of Mexico northeast to off the southeast USA coast.  This also seems like a strong feature that will return, amplify, and affect storm systems by deflecting them away from the southeastern and mid Atlantic states.

El Niño:  El Niño is the periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific waters centered over the equator.  Warming and cooling occur on a somewhat cyclical basis and El Niño is the warm phase of this oscillation, with La Niña being the cool phase.  Together, these are sometimes called the Southern Oscillation and thus the term ENSO, for El Niño-Southern Oscillation.  The waters have been warming over the tropical Pacific in recent months, and most forecasts are for El Niño to at least reach moderate strength during this winter before falling apart later in 2010.  This will likely have some impact on the LRC this year.  The southern branch of the jet stream should be stronger and there may be an abundance of tropical moisture pulled into storm systems forming in the mid latitudes.  We have weighted some El Niño influence into our winter forecast.

High amplitude and split flow scenarios

When the flow amplifies there will be the likely development of a deeper western trough with the eastern Pacific ridge in a good position to create Arctic air masses which will then slide down the lee of the Rockies.  When the flow aloft amplifies it will lead to a split jet stream with an “El Niño” influence.  I will talk more about El Niño below. 

When the flow splits the Pacific flow will likely undercut higher heights over Canada and this will lead to major winter storms farther south.  The eastern Pacific ridge will be suppressed south allowing for wet storm systems to intensify and threaten the western states with strong and wet storms.  This will happen during a couple of stretches this winter, but then the ridge will recycle and develop once again over the western states.

Remember, the weather pattern is cycling.  There is about a 15 day stretch that will likely repeat in each cycle where the jet stream will retreat north producing a warm period, but this is not the dominant part of the weather pattern.

Forecast Discussion:

Precipitation: Storm systems will be reaching their peak strength most often as they track inland over the western states and especially over the southern Rockies into the central and southern plains states.  We are expecting above average precipitation over a large part of the United States. The exceptions being the northern tier of states and the east coast where average precipitation is expected.  The most likely spot to have a drier winter and spring will be the southeastern states.  This pattern shows some similarities to the classic El Niño precipitation pattern, except for the southeast being dry.  Here is the precipitation forecast:

Temperature:  With El Niño strengthening there will likely be some influence on the temperature anomalies across North America, but I am not expecting the usual El Niño forecasts to verify.  The eastern fourth of the nation is the most likely area to have a warmer-than-average winter.  The western states are the most likely area to have a colder-than-average winter due to the location of the long-wave trough through the Rockies.  Thus, the pattern will be more divided between a cool west and mild east, as opposed to the usual El Niño pattern of a mild north and cool south.

Kansas City Forecast:

The weather pattern has set up for Kansas City to have a wet winter with long cloudy stretches.  Temperatuures will likely be near average as the cold outbreaks should be balanced by a few warmer and drier periods.  We have already experienced a few examples of what this pattern can do when it comes to rainfall, and the most recent storm system is producing snow in the region.  We are expecting more storm systems like these and they will be better organized than they have been in recent years.

Last year there were very few snow days in our viewing area.  Some school districts didn't even have one.  With this pattern we will have at least a few snow days in every school district.  Will there be any ice storms?  There will likely be a few storm systems with some ice potential, but as usual this should be more likely well off to the south and east with this wet pattern we are in.  A few minor icing events are still likely.  The chance of a major ice storm is higher to  the southeast.

How much snow are we predicting around our viewing area?  We are forecasting 20" to 32" of snow.  Last year, just within the immediate KC metro area, we had 13" to 22" and a range much bigger than that for the viewing area.  And, we average 15" near Pleasanton, KS, and 27" near the Iowa border.  So, predicting a range should not be that much of a stretch.  It is what will happen this year.  Could spots get much more than 32" this season?  Yes!  But, could a few spots get just under 20"?  Probably, but I am not expecting that to happen.  I am expecting above average snow and much above average rain!

If you have any questions about this winter forecast please just let us know in the comments section. 

Gary Lezak

Watch our Winter Forecast at 10 PM tonight on NBC Action News in HD!

Good late morning bloggers,

Snow and sleet are being reported in many locations and the snow is accumulating north and west of Kansas City. The defining line/changeover line will be tough to place as it may oscillate back and forth.  A band of heavier precipitation is developing and rotating north and northwest into the area.  Please keep sending in your reports and watch NBC Action News from 11 AM through noon for details.  The changeover line is near Kansas City.  Brett Anthony just showed our local ski area in Snow Creek, just west of Weston, MO with snow covering it!

This is a very compex and strong storm system.  Predicting the exact location of where the changeover line will move is very difficult and it is right over our region.  It may drift west or it could be stationary.  I don't think it will move too much farther to the east.  Areas north and west of Kansas City could easily see a few inches of snow. 

For the snowflake contest to end an inch needs to fall on the Plaza as measure by one of our meteorologists.  So, will this happen today? 

Gary

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5 p.m. and after NFL Football for the latest on Monday's storm!

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Quick update before the show where I will handle the snow predictions.  One thing to look at this evening is the drier air to the north.  The models are not forecasting the dew points to be low.  What does this mean?  When precipitation starts to fall the column of air will cool and the lower the dew point, the lower the air temperature can fall to.  In other words, with the models not recognizing the lower dew points they are probably not grasping how cold it will be on Monday.  Right now I am going with a rain to rain/snow mix on the south side of KC, with a possible rain to mix/snow on the north side.  Some accumulation possible?  And a period of snow in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.  Someone may pick up 4"+ of snow.

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Good evening bloggers.  I just wanted to provide a quick update.  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri for Monday.  The 18Z models were slightly colder and it looks like the areas under the advisory will see the first accumulating snow of the season.  Below is the 18Z GFS forecast for noon on Monday.  The blue line is the 850mb 0C line.  This is a key layer of the atmosphere to watch if it is going to snow in areas that are not currently under the Winter Wx Advisories.  If the 18Z verifies, it will likely snow in Kansas City on Monday...a big if right now:)

Right now I would say that locations under the Winter Wx Advisories could see 1-3"+ of snow.  A little shift here or there could change these totals a decent amount.

If you are curious about today's rain...here are some totals.

• Knob Noster  0.86"
• Lee's Summit  0.72"
• KCI Airport  0.43"
• St. Joseph  0.06"

Make sure to check back after the new data comes in...we may have an update.

Jeremy

Watch NBC Action News HD from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. as we track our next slow moving storm!

Good Saturday bloggers!  If you like cool, cloudy, and damp weather the next 4-5 days are for you!  A cold front dropped south of Kansas City early this morning, behind the front temperatures have already fallen into the upper 40s.  It looks like temperatures will hold nearly steady today somewhere either side of 50 degrees.

Below is the surface map at 8 a.m. Saturday morning showing the northwest winds in Kansas City and cooler air slowly moving in.

For today right through probably Wednesday we are going to see cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and on and off rain chances.  Today's wet weather should just amount to pockets of drizzle and maybe a light shower.

As we head into the second half of the weekend the storm system that we have talked about for days will begin moving from the Four Corners Region into and just east of the Rockies.  This storm will send a few showers in our direction tonight into Sunday, with possible thunderstorms during the afternoon.  The exact position of the thunderstorms will determine will picks up 1"+ of rain on Sunday.  At this time it looks like near and south of I-70 looks like the best bet for the heaviest rain.

Below is the 500mb forecast map from the 6Z GFS for Sunday at Noon.  This shows the large upper low about to cut-off. 

Once the low cuts off we will see clouds and on and off showers thru Wednesday.  Temperatures will also cool down into the 40s for highs.  Right now, the chance of snowflakes is low, but if we do see some the upper low would need to move almost right on top of KC which may happen early Wednesday.  Still something to keep an eye on.

No onto a couple of things that caught my eye and violated my 'Rules of Forecasting'.  First this morning when I was driving into work it was drizzling, not heavy, but enough to run the wipers from time to time.  When I got into the weather office I flipped on the TV's and looked at LIVE:ESP to see that really nothing was being detected execpt right near the radar sight.  The reason, the clouds were only about 600-1000ft. above the ground.  The radar beam is being sent out at a 0.5 degree angle.  This means that not that far away from the radar site the beam is above the drizzle producing clouds.  So the radar 'looks' dry.  To my amazement one local weather forecaster failed to look outside and when I was watching, this person kept saying it was dry across the area, because that was what the radar was saying.  Rule #1 of forecasting...LOOK OUTSIDE.

I've violated this rule in the past, but generally once you violate this rule it takes a long time to break it again.

Now onto another rule that I will ask your take on.  I think it is good to communicate when we are uncertain of a storm track or give possibilities of what may happen in the extended forecast.  But what one Minneapolis station did recently I will never do during my career, at least putting it in the 7 day.  Notice the 'low confidence' on days 6-7.  I think it goes without saying that once we get into days 5-7 that forecast error increases quite a bit.

What are your thoughts on this 7 day?

Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather Blog and don't forget, our winter forecast is Monday Night at 10pm!

Jeremy

Watch Monday Night at 10 PM For Our Winter Forecast in HD!  We will also be putting some more information online soon!

Good morning NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

While the remnants of Hurricane Ida blast the mid-Atlantic states today with 10 inches of rain, or possibly more, near the Virginia coastline we have what could be a wet storm heading our way.  There is even a chance that we could see our first snowflakes on the backside of this storm that hasn't even formed yet.  The energy that will begin developing and organizing into a storm is still well offshore in the Pacific Ocean.  You can see it below on this first forecast map valid at 6 PM this evening:

The eastern United States storm, now a cut-off low, will be centered just off the Virginia coast at 6 PM tonight.  This is the storm that will produce the excessive rain and winds near the coast of over 55 mph.  It is cut-off from the main jet stream and is moving very slowly. 

Take a look, below, at the next storm forming by Saturday night near the Utah/Arizona border:

There is a lot to pay close attention to in the next two weeks as the weather pattern is about to get a jolt of energy.  Split flow is going to become more enhanced near the west coast and the southern branch is often under forecast during the earliest stages of any developing split flow.  Our weather is about to become much more exciting than it has been so far this month.  You can see the split flow forming off the Pacific northwest coast.  There is a very high probability that this next storm is just the beginning of an energetic and stormy second half of November.  Earlier this week I showed how we have had our first snowflakes before Thanksgiving the last five years in a row.  The last time we didn't have our first snowflakes before Thanksgiving was 2001.  As this pattern becomes energized I am expecting this year to make it 8 years in a row with those first snowflakes before the Plaza Lights go on!  Will we have our first inch to end the snowflake contest?  The deadline to enter the snowflake contest is Friday.  Go to www.NBCActionNews.com/snowflake to enter. 

There are many uncertainties concerning this next potentially very wet storm heading our way.  The rainfall and snowfall forecasts will be trending one way or another in the next few days, but here is what the 06z (midnight) run of the GFS showed:

This rainfall forecast will move around west and east, a bit north or south, in the coming days.  But, it looks like a certainty that this is going to be a very wet storm for November.  For us to see our first snowflakes here in Kansas City we will need the upper low to track near or south of Kansas City.  This still may happen by Monday night or Tuesday and we will be working on some very special weather graphics on NBC Action News in HD the next few days to help describe and clearly show to you what we are thinking.  One thing we pride ourselve on doing is creating these weather graphics to enhance your experience in watching our weathercasts.  It is a goal I have every day.  So, watch closely as this storm approaches.

Get ready for increasing south winds today.  The nice weather has about two more days to go, and then the changes begin.  We may regularly return to our two blogs a day as conditions warrant so check back in later on as we analyze the new data. 

Gary

Watch NBC Action News in HD for our WINTER FORECAST next Monday night at 10 PM!

Good evening bloggers,

I will update the blog later Wednesday morning after the new data comes in as it could get very interesting early next week with the strong potential of a storm around Sunday night into Monday.

Today is a special day as I am remembering my dog Windy!  Windy would have been 20 years old today.  She died three and a half years ago and November 10th will always be a special day to remember her.  Windy was on the Oprah show, Animal Planet Channel (two different shows), and she made her weekly appearances on Kansas City television for 15 years.  She went to over 800 public appearances with me, and there were many times when Windy got recognized while just walking down the street.  But, it never got to her head!  Anyway, I just wanted to remember Windy today!  Here is a picture from 2004 when she was 15 years old. Stormy was in the car with us on the way home from work.  Have a great night, and look for an updated blog later Wednesday morning.