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Watch Our Winter Forecast One Week From Monday Night On NBC Action News!
Good morning bloggers,
It's FRIDAY! Did you watch NBC Action News last Friday night when I threw the football into one of our big television screens? Every Friday night, during high school football season, one of us throws the football to Lance Veeser, our weekend sports anchor, to begin his high school football segment. During the last 8 weeks we have made 6 pretty nice completions to Lance, but there were two misses. Elizabeth threw one into the ground, and last week was my overthrow into the TV. Should I get to redeem myself, or should Elizabeth take over the QB job? Here is a picture from last Friday night:
Now, onto the weather. The warm November weather pattern is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. It was already 60 degrees by 8:10 AM as I am writing this and our forecast of a record breaking 79º is very likely on Saturday.
Have a great weekend! Here is the ENSO report from the Climate Prediction Center issued yesterday:
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 November 2009
ENSO Alert System Status:
El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central andeastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 & 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month (Fig. 3). Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat contentanomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 4) also increased during the month.
In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of theequatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.
For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.
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Good morning bloggers,
While today is a rather boring, but nice weather day, I decided to look at something from a year that was rather fascinating....The LRC in 1992-1993! There has been increasing discussion on my theory in recent days with a lot of questions and this very exciting weather year hopefully will be a great example of my theory. Before we get to this, here is a comment posted yesterday by blogger "supercell" with his way of describing the LRC:
Here's my layman's explanation of the LRC:
1) Think of waves. Ocean waves come in sets. Surfers have learned how to read the sets so they will know when to expect a good wave. Sometimes the sets vary, but once the pattern is recognized, an extremely accurate prediction of future sets can be made. There's no debate ocean waves come in sets. What we debate is why? Because we can see the waves and study their movement with our own eyes, we firmly accept the conclusion they come in patterns and not some random variation. The bigger question is Why? Much like the LRC.
2) Think of waves again. This time it's a human wave. Imagine Arrowhead Stadium with fans doing the wave (how long has that been?). Sometimes the fans are really into it and the wave can easily be seen making its way around the stadium. Sometimes the fans are not as energetic and the wave will be strong to start and fade in the middle. However, we still recognize the wave even if only a few people are doing it because we recognize the characteristics of the wave. With just a few characteristics of the wave in place, it's possible to accurately predict what will happen with the wave. Will it die out? Will it make it around? Why? Because it's a pattern we recognize. The strength of the wave makes it easier or harder to predict what will happen. Just like the LRC.
My point? Patterns are easy to recognize if you look for them. Not many things are random. In no way do I believe weather is random. There is a pattern. The prediction of what will happen next comes from observation and recognizing what you see. That's what Gary and his team are doing now. Observing and looking for characteristics so they will be able to accurately tell us what will happen over the next set. Will this year's LRC be a long set or short set? Will we have big waves or small waves? Will it be 35 days or 70 days between sets? Just like waves. Weather has a pattern and someone is working to figure it out.
To me, the bigger question isn't whether or not there's an LRC. My question is Why? If someone can figure out what causes the pattern, then long-term forecasting will take a quantum leap. If you know why, then a forecaster could predict a pattern BEFORE it forms. As it stands now, we wait for the pattern to form and then predict what it will do. Imagine taking the next step...
Thank you for your input, supercell. There is a lot to think about!
Now, let's take a look back at the 1992-1993 season. This was a particularly active and stormy pattern for our region. It was my first winter in Kansas City after moving north from Oklahoma in 1992. The "long term" longwave troughs and ridges set up placing us in a stormy weather pattern that began in October, picked up in November, and then went wild during the winter months. There were two one foot snowstorms in the KC metro area that winter. The winter was very active with many storm systems. The biggest ones did fall right in line with what must have been around a 47 to 50 day cycle that year. And, the pattern ended with the Flood of '93.
Here are some maps to compare and if you look at the dates you can pick up the likely cycle. The dates of the maps are listed here with the # of days between each cycle. Remember, each one of these dates is just a snapshot in time, and the overall pattern is cycling, not just one storm system:
- October 8, 1992
- November 25, 1992 (48 days later)
- January 13, 1993 (49 days)
- February 25, 1993
- March 3, 1993 (49 days)
- April 20, 1993 (48 days)
- June 8, 1993 (49 days)
- July 25, 1993 (47 days)
The 1992 October showed this developing pattern, but could we have known it was going to be this stormy? The first major winter storm of the season in our region developed around November 25th. I remember this day well as we were forecasting the biggest November snowstorm in Kansas City history, but it dumped on Dodge City Kansas and redeveloped as it ejected over us leaving around 1 to 5 inches of snow in our viewing area.
This next map, below, is from January 13th, 49 days later. This is the one that produced up to 14 inches of snow across the KC metro area.
This next map, below, shows the 500 mb flow as we were being blasted by a 10 to 14 inch snowstorm in Kansas City. At first I thought this was right on the cycle for this year, but it was 5 days off. But, look at what happened 5 days later on the next map. There is the storm that is related to the others in the sequence.
And, now we move into spring and here is the next storm in this part of the pattern and right on schedule. April 20th is 48 days after the March version version of this storm system.
As we move out of May and into the summer months the jet stream retreats significantly and the same pattern gets a bit more masqued. Here are the June and July versions of the cycling LRC in 1992-1993:
It was a very wet winter across the plains states setting the stage for one of the worst floods in USA history. The "Flood of '93" materialized as we moved through the spring into early summer. MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) activity developed day after day across Nebraska/Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri with this summer version of what we believe was the same pattern from the previous winter cycling over and over again. The flooding rains abruptly ended after the middle of July and this was when I first believed the old pattern falls apart in late July and August. Something very different began developing at this point.
What do you think of this example? It was a weather pattern to remember and we haven't had as exciting of a weather pattern since 1992-1993 in Kansas City. I believe this is a great example of the LRC. Do you think it was just a coincidence? Two nearly 1 foot snowstorms, not to mention all of the others, were a result of the cycle and the "long term" longwaves according to my theory. If you have any questions let's begin another debate today.
So, where are these features this year? We are still identifying the features and there are still so many uncertainties. By December most of these features become better defined. Our winter forecast will come out November 16th and we will have a special segment on NBC Action News that night. Hopefully most of the pieces of the LRC puzzle will come together before mid-November.
Have a great day! I am on Sports Radio 810 WHB, at 8 AM. Then it is off to work out, and go in to track this very warm air heading our way.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!
Good morning bloggers,
Today we are going to compare the ECMWF to the GFS as these models have been consistent in the past few runs in rather diverging solutions in the 6 to 10 day forecast period. There was a discussion about the LRC in yesterdays blog, and it was quite educational and somewhat entertaining. I barely had enough time to read all of the comments and I wish I had much more time to address some of the questions. I will find the time in about two weeks as we finish up our winter forecast, so please be patient. If you do not believe in the LRC then I say you do not believe that what happened in October into early November will return this winter. Because, the basics of my theory are that a pattern sets up, cycles, and repeats. So, later this fall and through the winter if the pattern repeats and can be shown to be related to what happened earlier in the fall then it is strong evidence that the LRC does exist. Do you agree? I know, here we go again. I will try to find some more time to answer any questions you may have, but I do have a full slate today.
O.K., let's begin with the battle between the beloved ECMWF (European) model and the GFS model. The ECMWF has been consistent in its last three runs to NOT dig a trough into the west during the next ten days. The GFS and its ensembles have been consistent in the other direction. Let's take a look at these models:
The above 500 mb forecast map is the 216 hour ECMWF model. As I said the European model has been consistent with a solution of not digging anything into the western states. This is very different from what the GFS has been doing during the past few days. Take a look at the GFS valid around the same time as the above ECMWF:
So, the battle is on. Which model has the right idea? We are still analyzing the developing weather pattern for the season. This is the time of the year with the lowest amount of confidence in the pattern, but as the days and weeks go by my confidence grows substantially. We are still learning more about what this pattern will mean for the fall and winter months, not to mention the spring and summer. Let's see what happens during the next ten days first.
A huge warm-up is in the forecast for the weekend. It may surge to near 80º Saturday. Our current forecast is for 74º Friday and 76º Saturday. Wow! I am looking forward to this nice weather.
Have a great day! Be sure to watch our weather forecasts on NBC Action News as we will be working on some special graphics to describe these changes!
Gary
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13 days until our winter forecast comes out! Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast!
Good morning Action Weather Bloggers,
We had a wide range of low temperatures this morning. Temperatures ranged from 27º to 38º around the local region this morning. At 7 AM it was 27º at St. Joseph and 13 degrees warmer than that with KCI coming in at 40º at the same observation time. High pressure is sitting right over our area this morning and the lower lying locations had pockets of very cold air. You could probably have walked through your own neighborhood and gone up and down little hills with a thermometer and had these 5 to 10 degree differences in temperature. On my way home last night I watched the car thermometer go from 50º to 41º in about a two block distance. The sun does wonders, though, and we will all be near the same high temperature this afternoon. Forecasting low temperatures is often much harder than forecasting the afternoon high.
Another major warm-up is in the forecast for Thursday into Saturday. There is a very good chance that it will jump back into the 70s on Friday and Saturday with downslope warming and some rather warm air around 5,000 feet up heading right over us by Friday night. This first map shows the 850 mb (around 5,000 feet) flow with temperatures plotted in ºC.
It will likely warm into the 60s on Friday and Friday night at this level and with a nice south breeze at the surface we can expect 70s for highs Friday and probably Saturday. The flow higher up, around 18,000 feet (500 mb level), is showing the changing weather pattern.
The map above shows the predominantly zonal flow aloft but the buckling is about to begin. There is a very good chance of another western storm developing by Sunday. Take a look at the 500 mb forecast valid Sunday night:
This dry week of weather should come to an abrupt end early next week. But, coming out of strong zonal flow can be a very difficult pattern to forecast. When will the flow buckle? The 06z GFS showed it buckling by the weekend, but it could still be a day or two off. This pattern also is falling into what will be one of the pieces of the LRC puzzle this winter. We are atill working on our winter forecast which will be coming out two weeks from yesterday! There hasn't even been a chance of a snowflake in our entire viewing area so far. The deadline to enter our snowflake contest is a week from Saturday, so you still have time. I think we will have our first snowflake this month, but it takes an inch of snow to end the contest.
Have a great day and let us know if you have any questions. Here is a picture taken by Michael Martinez at Oak Grove Park near Oak Park High School. The leaves will continue falling, while a few more trees reach peak color this week. We have past the peak of the season, but there are plenty of trees left that still are absolutely beautiful.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most in-depth and accurate forecast!
Good morning bloggers,
We will begin with the October statistics. It was the third coldest October in Kansas City's recorded history. The 3.66" of rain at KCI is much lower than many locations just to the south and southeast where close to 8 inches of rain fell during the month.
October Statistics
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Highest Temperature: 76º (1st)
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Lowest Temperature: 31º (18th)
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Total Rainfall: 3.63”(+ 0.33”)
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Days with rain: 12 days with at least a trace
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Average Temperature: 50.6º (-6.2º)
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3rd Coldest October on Record
With the third coldest October behind us, November is starting off very differently. The jet stream has retreated north with another ridge aloft forecast to move over the middle part of the nation by the end of the week. This will result in another substantial warm-up by Thursday into the weekend.
The LRC continues to set up and reveal its identity. What does this overall weather pattern mean for the winter? Will the cold October anomaly return? Remember, it isn't just one day, one week, one month. The cycle length will likely be somewher between 35 and 75 days and this has not been identified yet. We now know that after a cold October there is another part of this weather pattern that may very well be rather warm. We are analyzing the overall pattern and our winter forecast will be coming out on November 16th, two weeks from tonight. You can learn more about my theory at www.LRCWeather.com. Click on the blog over there as we talk about some of the details of this developing weather pattern.
I went trick or treating with my Godson Skyler Penner Saturday night. Here is a picture of Skyler in his Thomas the Train costume......pretty scary!
And, during the high school football season Lance Veeser, our weekend sports anchor, has one of us toss the football to him in front of the sports set on Friday nights. It was my turn Friday night and my throw didn't quite get to him. But, it wasn't intercepted either. Here is a picture:
Have a great start to your week. Let us know if you have any questions.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News HD from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!
Good Sunday bloggers! I hope everyone had a great Halloween and if you have a picture of your costume please send me an email and I may add a couple pictures to the blog this afternoon. Here is one that I received of Zachary dressed in a great Batman costume!
Today starts a new month and likely a weather pattern we have never experienced before! What lies ahead? We will give you our thoughts during our winter forecast which is just about 2 weeks away. There will be more details on that forecast in the coming days.
Before we discuss today's weather let's look back at October. Here in Kansas City the average monthly temperature was only 50.6 degrees, or 6.2 degrees below average! The coldest temperature at KCI was 31 degrees on the 18th, with the warmest reading coming on October 1 at 76 degrees. The rain total was 3.66", which was 0.33" above average.
For today we are going to see temperatures about 10 degrees above average! Highs should warm into the 60s to around 70 degrees. By early Monday a cold front will sweep thru the region. Behind this front winds will turn to the north at 10-20 mph and cooler air will gradually move in. Highs Monday should still be in the low 60s in the city, and then likely back into the 50s for Tuesday. Below is the forecast surface map at 6 a.m. Monday. The cold front is just south of Kansas City.
Later this week the GFS is advertising another nice warm-up. Below is the 500mb forecast map for this coming Friday afternoon. Notice the strongest of the winds are north of the U.S. & Canadian border. This is a good indication that the jet stream is well to our north. Also on this map you can see the winds are westerly from the Pacific right to Kansas City. This zonal flow will keep our temperatures average to above average for much of this week. And there is a good chance we could be in the 60s to around 70 by late this week!
Just as a reminder with the time change that 'Z' time also changes a bit. If you look at models like the one above, 18Z will now correspond to 12pm (Noon) and 00Z to 6pm.
Have a great Sunday and make sure to check out our newscasts for the most accurate forecast!
Jeremy
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Watch NBC Action News HD from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!
Good Saturday and Happy Halloween bloggers! After a blustery Friday across the region we are in store for a nice treat this weekend. The first thing you should notice today is skies will be mostly sunny. The sun should rule not only today, but also on Sunday. The second big change for today will be the wind, or lack of compared to Friday. Winds should be in the neighborhood of 5-15 mph out of the west and ease to 5 mph for trick-or-treaters late this afternoon and evening.
Highs today should top out in the 50s, which is pretty close to average. Below are the forecast temperatures from the RUC for around 4 p.m. today.
After a nice Halloween, don't forget to set your clocks back one hour before heading to bed tonight. This is also a great time to check the batteries on your home's smoke detectors.
Halloween each year brings out the ghost and goblins, but for me it brings out memories of hands down the worst winter storm I've ever experience...the 1991 Halloween Bizzard. I lived in southwest Minnesota and an early afternoon rain quickly turned to snow. By 4-5 p.m. 3-4" of snow was on the ground as trick-or-treaters ventured out. The snow continued for the better part of 3 days with very strong winds and much colder air arriving for the second half of the storm. The snow was tough to measure since it was blown around, but I measured 18-20" where we lived. If memory serves me right Halloween that year was on a Thursday or Friday and due to the strong winds and huge drifts everything was shut down, meaning we were still out of school on Monday!
Below is the snow accumulation map from that storm, which still holds many of the state's all-time single storm snow records. One of those records is 36.9" of snow in Duluth from this storm, Minnesota's all-time record for a single storm.
As the storm departed it drew in record smashing cold temperatures that lingered for a week or more across the nation's mid-section. While Kansas City escaped the snow, it couldn't elude the cold. Looking at record lows for Kansas City from November 1-8, 7 of those records were set in 1991. Here is a look at the brutal stretch of record cold from 1991 at KCI Airport(no record low broken on Nov. 5).
November
1 20°
2 12°
3 10°
4 7°
6 16°
7 7°
8 1°
That storm occurred almost 20 years ago, but is still the most memorable winter storm I've ever experienced!
Have a happy and safe Halloween and thank you for stopping by the Action Weather Blog!
Jeremy
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Don't forget the time change on Saturday night! The clocks go back one hour at 2 AM. Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!
Good Friday morning bloggers,
A cold front moved through the viewing area over night and it came in from the southwest around this complex storm system. At midnight it was still 63º at KCI airport while at the same time it was 47º in Oklahoma City and Emporia, KS. Here is the midnight surface map:
Rainfall Totals:
- Grain Valley: 2.00"
- N. Lee's Summit: 1.73"
- S. Lee's Summit: 1.60"
- Shawnee, KS: 1.45"
- 99th & Antioch, KS: 1.32"
- Smithville, MO: 1.25"
- Kansas City, North, MO: 1.15"
- Southwest Independence: 1.10"
- Fort Leavenworth, KS: 1.10"
- S. Overland Park, KS: 1.10"
- La Cygne, KS: 1.07"
- Kearney, MO: 1.01"
- Liberty, MO: 0.76"
- Piper, KS: 0.68"
Thank you so much for participating and adding in your rainfall totals. Now, take a look at the surface map this morning showing that the surface low is moving into Canada later today. The pressure gradient is quite strong so we will have a windy Friday.
The jet stream is about to retreat significantly to the north, so as cold as October was we are likely about to have a good chance of a warmer November. Here is the 500 mb forecast valid Sunday morning:
There will be some downsloping air allowing for a rather big warm-up on Sunday. We are forecasting 68º for Sunday afternoon and well into the 50s tomorrow. More of the LRC is being revealed in the coming days. Our winter forecast will be coming out on November 16th. This is a very complex weather pattern, as every year is. Have a great weekend. Watch out for the trick or treaters Saturday night. It will be a full moon as well so it could get a bit scary.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
A few locations have experienced torrential rainfall this afternoon at the rate of around 1.5 inches per hour, but the radar echoes have been moving so fast that it hasn't lasted long enough to produce that much rain, yet. Meteorologist Jeff Penner & I just stood outside and watched the heaviest thunderstorm in the area move through. There were only two lightning strikes near us, but the rain fell hard enough, combined with the leaves falling from the trees to make Oak Street, just east of the Plaza, to become under water briefly. Here is a look at LIVE:ESP taken at 4 PM:
The storm is rather powerful and we can see the reflection of this upper level storm at the surface below. Snow continues to fall across Colorado with four feet of snow in some spots across the foothills just west of Boulder. Boulder has had around 2 feet of snow. Another friend of mine, meteorlogist Matt Kelsch, reported 22 inches officially in Boulder and said "it never really snowed that hard". Oh, come on Matt! By our Kansas City standards I can imagine us never saying something like that after 22 inches of snow. Well, we may never see that in our lifetime here? Well, maybe this year? Just kidding! Here is the surface map:
 Let We will be tracking the very strong dry slot developing soon on our weathercasts tonight. And, let's see how much warmer air pumps in here after sunset tonight. There is a chance of a warm up to 67 or 68 degrees after dark. Let us know how much rain you received and we will start a list here soon. Have a great evening.
Rainfall Totals:
- Grain Valley: 2.00"
- N. Lee's Summit: 1.73"
- S. Lee's Summit: 1.60"
- Shawnee, KS: 1.45"
- 99th & Antioch, KS: 1.32"
- Smithville, MO: 1.25"
- Kansas City, North, MO: 1.15"
- Southwest Independence: 1.10"
- Fort Leavenworth, KS: 1.10"
- S. Overland Park, KS: 1.10"
- La Cygne, KS: 1.07"
- Kearney, MO: 1.01"
- Liberty, MO: 0.76"
- Piper, KS: 0.68"
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD as we track this storm all day. We are the only station on from 5 AM through Nooon with weather updates every day!
Good morning bloggers,
The strong storm that is hitting the Rocky Mountain states hard is bringing us our first round of rain with embedded thunderstorms. Here is the 4:40 AM radar image:
This first wave of rain/thunderstorms will likely move right through the KC metro area by sunrise with some heavy rain and lightning spreading north along and east of the state line. Other rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely today and tonight as the main storm ejects northeast across western Kansas. Look at what the storm has left in Boulder, CO. Some areas have had over 2 feet of snow, and this picture was taken by a friend of mine who lives just east of Boulder, between Boulder and Denver where 21 inches had fallen by Wednesday evening:
The snow continues to fall in Denver early this morning. It should shut off sometime today. This is one rather unique storm for Colorado as it is a powerful upper level low taking a perfect track to become a record breaking snow maker. Take a look at the surface reflection of this big storm as of 7 AM this morning:
Can you imagine this storm being a bit farther south with cold air in place in our region later this season? Or, this storm during the spring with more warm & moist air available for severe weather? There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms fromaround Springfield, MO southward, but this doesn't include our area. Go to www.LRCWeather.com for some more information on this historic Colorado storm.
Have a great day. We will try to update the blog later this afternoon. I caught a bad cold and sore throat and went home early yesterday, but got to bed around 9 PM and had some good sleep. I think I am feeling better.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's most accurate forecast. And, you can still enter the snowflake contest as the deadline for entries is still two weeks away!
Good morning bloggers,
A very strong storm is moving through the Rocky Mountain states this morning. It will emerge out into the plains later today and affect us on Thursday, and possibly over the weekend. Here is a picture from Denver, CO this morning with the huge snowflakes falling. Some areas will get more than a foot of snow today out there so if you have travel plans to Denver check ahead.
You can see the storm system by looking at the main curl in the clouds over eastern Utah. This storm is now forecast to split into two pieces as you can see on the next two maps.
This GFS 500 mb forecast is valid at 7 PM Thursday. The main 540 dm (decameter) upper low is a rather impressive as it lifts out over the western plains states. There is a second lobe of this storm that is forecast to split off and form into a new southern storm system. The lifting out storm will bring us a strong band of rising motion Thursday along and ahead of a cold front and this will result in rain & possible thunderstorms during the day tomorrow.
This second storm has to be monitored closely as it will affect Halloween. If it gets any closer we could see some rain back in here from the east on Saturday evening, but most likely this will just miss us to the southeast. How will this storm split and exactly where will this storm track after it develops on Friday?
We will be tracking all of these developments on NBC Action News in HD. Check back in this evening and I will try to update the blog as new data rolls in. And, for those of you just wondering about today, well, it is going to be a great day. We are forecasting 65º with some sunshine breaking out.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD as we Debut Our New Weather Look Tonight! We have been working on our new graphics and they will debut on our Midday Newscast at 11 AM this morning.
Good morning everyone,
We are tracking two storm systems this morning. The first one already affected us as it passed by on Sunday with the band of rain and thunderstorms. It dropped into Texas, reorganized and the upper system has become negatively tilted and it is being ejected out as a much stronger storm dives into the western states. You can see the two storm systems on the this map:
There is an area of light rain showers moving into southern Linn County this morning and the showers are drifting north. There is a chance that these showers could make it close to Kansas City later this morning, but areas to the north and west will not be affected much at all today by this system. The second storm is much stronger as you can see on this next map:
Quite often we will talk about a major storm system for days, and then when it moves through we only experience a quick band of showers when the system tracks to your north. This system will eject northwest of Kansas City, with a trailing southern split off of the main storm which will fall into almost the same spot as today's storm system. As the northern part of this storm moves out we will likely get that one band of showers/thunderstorms. So, we have two more days to talk about this storm, but the impact will likely be small.
After this next storm goes by, the jet stream is forecast to lift significantly northward. But for how long? The LRC is still becoming established with the first cycle still in progress. There is going to be much more to it than just what we have experienced the past few weeks. So, as the jet stream shifts north it should be a reality check for anyone who has jumped to any conclusions on what this weather pattern means for winter. We are still analyzing the new LRC and our winter forecast will come out November 16th when I do a special segment on NBC Action News. Here is the retreating jet stream as shown on the 500 mb GFS forecast valid at noon on Sunday. I would have usually said 1 PM, but the time changes this weekend, which means the data will come out an hour earlier.
Have a great day. We have brand new weather graphics debuting tonight on NBC Action News in HD. Let us know what your first impression is later on today.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast
Good morning bloggers,
The last band of showers moved out earlier this morning. The clearing line is advancing fast and it looks like we will have a sunny & cool day. Our next storm is a strong one diving into the west and it is going to be a very strong storm. How will it affect us? Let's take a look:
The map above shows the deep upper low centered over Arizona. This 500 mb forecast map is valid at 1 PM Wednesday. This is going to create a majors snowstorm over the Rocky Mountains and higher elevations of the western states, but the impact on our area could vary from just one or two bands of showers to some very heavy rain & thunderstorms later this week. A strong cold front will eventually move through by Friday, but the biggest impacts from this storm could end up being the warmer air being drawn north and a lot of wind. Here is the forecast surface map:
So, it looks like we will go another week without a chance of our first snowflake. To end the snowflake contest an inch has to fall and you have until November 13th to enter the contest. Here is a little fact for you this morning? What city that averages around 10 inches of snow by today's date hasn't had more than a dusting of snow so far? The answer is Fairbanks, Alaska. They have officially had 0.2" of snow this season, so the snowflake contest would be going on there as well. One of the features of this years LRC is affecting Fairbanks already. Go to www.LRCWeather.com and click on the weather blog over there for more details on this feature.
I was at the game yesterday and what is wrong with this picture:
It did begin raining during the last two minutes of the first half. Look at all of the people leaving the stadium. It was halftime....HALFTIME of the Chiefs game. Yes, they were trailing 20-0, but about half of the crowd left at halftime.
Have a great start to your week. We will be tracking this next storm on NBC Action News with some special weather graphics.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News HD after NFL Football as we track rain on LIVE:ESP!
Good evening bloggers! If you still have your rain guage set-up, please send along you rain totals and I will show a list during our newscast after the game. The radar estimates put over 3" of rain in parts of Anderson, Linn, and Miami counties.
Below is the NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates thru 5:45 p.m.
The heaviest rain this evening will be from the southeast side of the metro and points east and south. Overnight scattered showers will continue, before ending early Monday. There should be some sun Monday afternoon.
Jeremy
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Watch NBC Action News HD from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 p.m. and after NFL Football for updates on rain chances!
Good Sunday bloggers! Thank you for checking out the weekend edition of Kansas City's favorite weather blog! Today may be a half and half day. Temperature-wise the day won't be too bad with highs in the 60s again. The downside may be rain showers, which should move in this afternoon. Rain chances will increase the later we get into the day. So a trip to Arrowhead should start dry, but I can't guarantee the entire game will remain rainfree. Right now I would put the rain chance during the game at 30%.
Since yesterday we looked at the GFS in regards to rain, let's check out the NAM. This is a 24 hour rainfall forecast. This puts a bullseye of over 1" of rain just east and southeast of the metro. I do think there is going to be a heavier pocket of rain, but saying with 100% certainty where that sets up is difficult. The best chance will be from Kansas City and points east-southeast.
This is round one of the rain. The models late yesterday and this morning are showing a more organized storm for Monday-Tuesday. This could keep us in the showers right through parts of Tuesday. This second piece of energy will bring us round two of the rain.
Below is the 6Z GFS forecast for 7 a.m. Tuesday. The 500mb vort max is about to reach its peak intensity. Could this be one of the long term longwave trough positions for this coming winter? It is something we are watching closely, because again, what you see below is a forecast. The exact position of the trough or vort max will be a key not only for this one storm system and impact our rain chances, but possibly a key ingredient to our winter forecast?
The main theme for today is rain chances increase as the day progresses. Showers could continue all the way into Tuesday. Not raining the entire time, but periods of showers are possible.
One other thing I wanted to point out. Yesterday the 12Z GFS numerical 'guidance' had a high of 54 for Wednesday. Our forecast has consistently been in the 60s for that day. I think yesterday it ranged from 66-68. We are anticipating a slower and stronger solution for the storm in this time period that the models seem to slowly be grabbing onto. If the storm slows even more, then 60s may start Thursday before colder air rushes. Lots to talk about in the coming days and we will be on top of the changes in the blog and on-air!
Jeremy
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