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Good late evening bloggers,
Something fascinating is going on right now. It is currently down to 9º at KCI airport as of 9 PM. In Sioux Falls, SD it is 11º BELOW zero, but guess what? There is a warm front just north of Sioux Falls. Yes, it is coming in from the north. It is 25º ABOVE in Minneapolis, MN, which means the temperature will be warming around 30 degrees overnight in southeastern South Dakota. This warm front is not only going to move through Sioux Falls and warm them up, but it is going to spin completely around this vigorous upper level storm and head our way by tomorrow warming us back up into the 20s. Before this happens, our temperatures will continue the free fall for another six hours before clouds associated with the upper low and warm front rotate over us with some snow by around 7 or 8 AM. WHEW!
Watch at 10 PM on NBC Action News. I am going to concentrate on this and I promise I won't run out of time. This is a storm that is about to create a major blizzard again for D.C. and NYC.
Have a great night. Oh, BTW, this happened in some form a couple other times this winter, including Christmas Day when warm air rotated around the storm. Go back and read one of my blog entries from those days.
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
Temperatures have crashed from 34º around noon into the teens this evening. The sky may briefly clear around this storm allowing for a combination of radiational cooling with the cold blast, but it will be short lived as clouds and warmer air wrap around the storm system. It will likely drop into the single digits between now and midnight.
I will add more thoughts in a little while, after the newscasts, which I am about to do the 5 PM weathercast right now to show these developments.
And, now I am getting some dinner. We will look at the temperature drop in just a little while.
O.K. Here is a quick update. It has already dropped to 12 degrees as of 8 PM at KCI Airport. The sky is just now clearing and we have a wedge of clear skies around the main upper low. This will allow the temperatures to drop to near zero before the bands of clouds move back in. As this vigorous upper low tracks into northern Missouri early in the morning we will get a surge of clouds rapidly moving in with a good chance of snow showers during the morning. On Tuesday, we will go over the details of these developments, and I will go back and look at our eight winter storms. This was Winter Storm Hoss.
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD for Kansas City's Most Accurate Forecast
Good afternoon bloggers,
Before we get started today we must go over the rules of the blog again. Let's keep the conversation to about weather. There will be no tolerance for personal attacks on other bloggers, or any bad language. We will be monitoring this closely and any blogger that breaks the rules will be eliminated from the blog.
Now onto the weather. A very strong cold front is going to pass through this afternoon sending our temperatures crashing into the teens by evening. Snow has been increasing along and ahead of the cold front and there will be some quick accumulation of the snow before the cold air blasts in. We are forecasting 1/2" to 1 1/2" this afternoon with the heavier amounts likely south and southeast of Kansas City. As the temperatures drop some slick and hazardous driving conditions will be developing.
This is about to be a rather dramatic next 24 hours of weather:
- Snow is increasing and will spread across the entire area this afternoon before exiting rapidly off to the east this evening (1/2" to 1 1/2" will be possible
- A cold blast of air will arrive during the afternoon with temperatures dropping into the single digits before midnight, if not by 8 PM in some spots
- Another band of snow will likely rotate in early Tuesday around sunrise as this vigorous upper level low tracks across northeastern Missouri
- Warmer air wrapping around the storm will be following the cold surge complicating the temperature forecast
Take a look at the noon surface map:
The winds will shift to the north with the cold blast arriving across the entire viewing area this afternoon. By this evening temperatures will likely drop into the single digits. Look at the RUC forecast valid at 8 PM tonight, and notice the warmer air circulating around the storm. This has already happened a couple of times this winter.
We will be tracking these developments on NBC Action News tonight. Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather Blog. Tomorrow we will go back over the eight named storm systems that we have experienced this winter. And, it isn't even close to being over yet.
Have a great afternoon and get prepared for a winter blast that is now moving in.
Gary
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Good morning bloggers,
There are bands of snow, the heaviest well south of Kansas City, tracking across the local region. We are expecting 1 to 3 inches totals in most spots and only a dusting to an inch on some secondary roads with most highways just being wet. There will be one final band of snow near the cold front as it moves through today. Any additional accumulation will likely be an inch or less today.
We are going to call this Winter Storm Hoss, even though it barely is a winter storm. There are around 45 school closings mostly well south of Kansas City, and there has been a 1 to 2 inch accumulation on the south side of the city with up to around 4 inches in Mound City, KS. So, Hoss will be a category 1 winter storm from our list.
There was a big question all weekend long on whether or not there would be phasing of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream. In the end, we ended up being dominated byt the northern branch. The phasing is happening farther south and east, as you can see below:
As the northern branch of the jet stream takes control, and an upper low drops south into northern Missouri, a strong cold front will blast south today. This will cause temperatures to crash into the 20s and teens, but not until much later in the day. Take a look a the front as of 6:33 AM. Temperatures are in teh single digits and below zero in northern Nebraska this morning. We will track this cold air today.
The weather may calm down just a bit, but hold on because there is no warm air in sight. The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC and we are in the part of the pattern that may give us a small break from storm systems, but unfortunately not much of a chance to warm up. And, there will still be some potential for some smaller storms caught in the fast moving flow in between these active periods.
Have a great day! Can you believe the New Orleans Saints are world champions! Congratulations to all of the Saints fans out there.
Gary
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We've gotten reports this evening of slick roads around Chillicothe, Lees Summit, Maryville, Nevada. Temperatures are below freezing in these areas.
In KC, we were at 34° at 11:00 pm with mainly wet roads, but still be careful out there on the bridges.
I'm going to catch a nap, have to be back in 4 hours from now for some more wintry weather coverage.
Thanks for all your reports, and please keep them coming, they help a lot!
-GW
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Hey Guys...
Here's the latest forecast map...there's still time for forecast bands of snow to migrate either north or south depending on the storm tracks, but around 2-3" inches looks good for KC for now.
As far as the winter storm watch. Updated to a winter weather advisory starting at midnight. If our temperatures stay above freezing overnight (our forecast low is 31° in KC), we may not see many travel problems in the morning. However, as of 8:00pm a few locations have dropped below freezing and started seeing icy or snow covered roads. Be careful. In the afternoon, we may quickly drop below freezing, and slick roads may result in the blowing snow.
Recent models have trended less agressively for snowfall, as you may have seen other forecasts taper back their number for snowfall. We tapered a little too! The Canadian model remains one of the more aggressive models with this storm system for KC. Upper left quadrant shows vort max appear to head a little further north-closer to KC-than others. Lower right shows more precipitation for Monday morning as well. Overall, the 18z Canadian model has the potential for 5" of snow for us.
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Finally...if you think our weather's been a total drag lately...check out the weather in Canada this afternoon.
Don't forget, these numbers are in Celcius. For some reason the "negatives" disappeared from Saskatoon and Calgary's numbers. Wishful thinking I guess!
Thanks for reading!
-GW
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Hey!
Not getting a whole lot of contrary information from the new models...we'll likely not change our forecast of 2-5" for now through Monday night for the KC area. But that's not official yet.
As far as the Winter Storm Watch is concerned...it's been adjusted to a Winter Weather Advisory for most of the area. However, this isn't over yet.
More to come.
-GW
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Here it is...the 12z NAM model run...500mb vorticity plot for Monday afternoon. Although this is just a snapshot of upper level disturbances in time, I've drawn arrows for how this model is handling the vorticity maxes over time.
Areas of precipitation that depend on these upper level disturbances would roughly lie on the SE, E or NE sides of these disturbances around this time frame. In other words, this run is leaving us out of the really heavy snow! Check out the precipitation from the 12z NAM through Monday night at Midnight.
My how things change! This would support an area of 2-4" inches of snow widespread around the KC area. I'm very tempted to push any more much further south..towards Nevada, MO.
1. Hopefully the 500mb plot can give you a feel for why the precipitation fields have take this strange shape.
2. Using the 500mb plot alone isn't enough, because it doesn't consider snow developing along front near the low levels of the atmosphere.
3. My handy Bufkit has been very consistent over the last few days of dropping 2"-3.5" over the KC metro area...using NAM and GFS data at the local airport stations.
It'll be interesting to see how this winter storm watch evolves over the next 6 hours.
A few pics that were sent to the station after Friday's quick 8"+ (11 in Lenexa!) snowfall.
You have to admit..this is the least heartbreaking 8" of snow you've ever gotten!
"Fluffy, Jerky Treats!!!! Wipe your feet!"
Looks like a pin-up calendar!
-I'm gonna PO for a little bit (that nerd lingo, for peace out)
-GW
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Bloggers and Bloggettes...
Good morning! I'll have an update on here after the 8 AM news is over.
For the morning...light passing snow...some mist...Streets are mainly wet but there may be a few slick spots along with areas with a dusting of snow.
I've have the latest on our snowfall totals Sunday night/Monday. You may be surprised...
More Coming..
-GW
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Updated Winter Storm Watch:
The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include northeastern Missouri, central Iowa and into Minnesota. Central and southwest Kansas have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning...with a Winter Weather Advisory just north (i.e. near Salina and Russell).
18z GFS has impressive upper low just north of KC Midnight Monday night. Our southern branch now over southeastern OK. Remember, the rising motion that can help spawn precipitation is not ON the yellow/red contours, rather just "downstream" of the yellow/red contours. Wind vectors point in this direction.
So at this snapshot in time, just east and southeast of the big vort max north of KC, we have some of the ingredients for the Winter Storm Watch in north central MO, central Iowa and MN. The east-west swath of watches through OK, KS, southern MO, etc. all lie in the path of the southern vort max.
Under this scenario the main driving force for snow in KC would be the disturbance just north of KC. I'm staying with this morning's prediction of 2-5" of snow...over the course of very late Sunday night-Monday evening.
Gary and I were talking and he brought up the following "what if"...
If the vort max north of KC tracks a little further southwest and deepens the trough further west, our flow aloft would be more northeastward. This could drive the southern-most storm a little closer and deliver higher snowfall totals!
Also, the NAM does try to direct a little more energy from the southern system our way Monday afternoon.
Stay cool!
-GW
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We've got snow on the brain. Another Winter Storm Watch is in effect Sunday night-Monday. After we talk about this, we'll talk about Raytown.
In white, the Winter Storm Watch. KC is on the northern edge of this watch.
There will be two upper level lows to watch...one coming in from the north which will pass overhead...and one coming in from the west that will pass to our south. The latter southern branch looks to be the prolific snowfall producer. Right now, the southern branch looks to pass just to the south of KC, but has trended north with recent model runs. This "trending northward" is a bad habit by models has been common lately!
I know it's small (forgive me)...but this is 36 hour precipitation forecast from Sunday noon through Monday night midnight for the 12z NAM model. Blues and purples are the heaviest amounts. KC, on this map right on the fringe...at about .5" of liquid. In KC we're going to assume that will all fall as snow. South into Oklahoma, this will be rain and snow. Regardless, .5" water can easily translate to 5" of snow for KC. More south, less north.
Same thing, GFS. Same result for KC. Looking at this one could easily assume 5" of snow for KC. Which may not be a bad estimate at this point. Keep in mind, this assumes all of the predicted precipitation over 36 hours will verify...and doesn't consider a change in trajectory of the storm. Further south, less snow...further north, more. With previous models showing the southern branch a little further south, i went trended of the conservative side and updated my AM snowfall to 2-5" for the am show. We could easily get this spread in the KC metro, north to south. With 6+" amounts just south of town.
Now you can see why the Winter Storm Watch is for KC and portions south. And we still have to consider snowfall that can be produced by the disturbance in the northern branch. The Monday AM commute may be a total drag.
RAYTOWN!
OK, so I'm new to town, and I want to really get a feel for the area. So I'm trying to visit one community each week to learn a little more. This week, Raytown. Why? Well, proximity for one. And I was kind of curious about that whole MAMA'S FAMILY thing.
As I walked into the Raytown Area Chamber of Commerce, they knew exactly who I was! As if they were waiting for me! Vicki and Kyle were very enthusiastic about Raytown, explaining that its western border was along the Santa Fe Trail and one of the oldest Pre-Civil War Houses was there.
Vicki said, "Did you get a picture of our clock downtown?"
I said, "I missed it as I negotiated the rush hour traffic."
So we took our picture in front of a picture of it.
According to Vicki, the sitcom MAMA'S FAMILY did take place in Raytown. And the actor that played BUBBA works in a motorcycle store nearby.
Thanks guys. Vicki and Kyle invited me back to the Raytown Summerfest and BBQ Cookout. Done.
-GW
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Good Morning bloggers,
I am just getting started and thinking about the seven named winter storms we have had this season. I am going to go back to each one and work on a blog that I will likely post next week as it may take quite some time and effort to put this together. I should have this done by early next week. In the mean time, George Waldenberger is on at 8 AM this morning tracking the developments on this weather pattern. I will look at the morning NAM model and write some thoughts in a few minutes....
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch that will go into effect Sunday for our next storm, which could be our 8th named storm of the season. But, there has been a trend in the models of placing our viewing area more in the northern branch instead of directing a storm in the southern branch our way. This is something we must pay close attention to. If we are more in the northern branch the potential snowfall accumulations will be a lot less with the best chance much farther south, but if that souther stream wave gets phased in before we go into the northern branch, then we could have significant accumulatioins of snow Sunday night and Monday.
The latest NAM has Kansas City on the northern edge of this storm. It brings some heavy snow all the way up to around I-70, sound familiar. So, here we go again. I don't like being on the edge of these storm systems. We will be tracking the trends on the other models and update the blog later today. Watch NBC Action News in HD tonight as George Waldenberger will keep you updated. He will work on a more extensive blog entry later today.
Have a great Saturday. What a winter!
Gary
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Good evening bloggers,
Another final band of snow has developed and it is rotating southwest around the major developing winter storm to our east that may bring up to 30 inches of snow near Washington D.C. This final band will come during the evening so some slick spots may develop with temperatures near 32º.
We are working on a map to show this unusual day, and I will get it posted here soon. 3" to 11" of snow have been reported through the KC metro area. Yes, 11" and someone just sent me a picture to prove it. Maybe it is an inch or two too high, but wow. Take a look at our quick analysis of the snowfall totals:
Please provide your snowfall totals. I will finish the blog around 6:30 PM tonight.
- Grandview, MO: 8.5"
- Overland Park, KS (South): 7.5"
The next storm system didn't trend, but jumped to a solution that only has some bands of warm advection snow Sunday into Monday night out ahead of the Arctic front. 2" to 5" would still be possible, but any big storm wouldn't quite happen in our viewing area, IF this solution is correct. We will go into more details tonight on NBC Action News in HD.
It's FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE BIG TOWN! Yes!
Gary
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Good afternoon bloggers,
We will be having live updates on NBC Action News every half hour as we track this upper level storm spinning across the Kansas/Missouri state line as it heads into the eastern states. As we have discussed, this storm is taking a perfect track for Kansas City to be in the middle of the comma head. 3 to 4 inch snow reports have been coming in and an additional 1 to 3 inches will fall before this storm leaves. The snow is now starting to make that southward turn, rotating around the storm.
I will add more thoughts in a few minutes........
Gary
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Watch NBC Action News in HD as we track these heavy bands of snow today!
Good morning bloggers,
The radar echoes continue to expand and intensify as they move across the state line this morning. The upper level low is going to track across central Kansas into southern Missouri today and this track is perfect for at least the forecast we showed last night and are sticking with this morning. Take a look at the upper low as forecast for 11 AM this morning. The upper level low will be located just northeast of Wichita, KS. This means that the bands of snow will rotate in from the west, but then likely stall, or slow down as they spin around the upper level low:
The accumulating snow may last up to ten hours (7 AM -5 PM) as the snow will likely not stop until the upper low gets east of the Lake of the Ozarks. The lifting is going to enhance right over Kansas City this morning which will likely lead to snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. In just two hours our forecast of 2 to 4 inches could fall in the heavier bands, so some locations will likely end up with 5 inches or more, especially east of Kansas City. You can see the lifting forecast as we move into the late morning hours below:
The red circles indicate the strongest rising motion. And, you can see the comma head forming around the upper level low by looking at the green shades. There is a dry slot shooting up into southeast Kansas which has to stay well south of us due to the southeastward moving upper level low. Here is our snowfall forecast:
When the heavy snow band moves across most surfaces will be completely covered in snow causing slick and hazardous driving conditions. Please allow a lot of extra time if you go out today.
After this storm moves by we will then concentrate on the next one which appears it will be a Major Winter Storm for our area with signicant impacts on Monday as the Arctic blast surges our way. This next storm has the potential to produce much more snow than this one.
We are planning a blogger/storm spotter meeting this month, during the last week of February. If you would like to be an invited guest, then please email your request to the following email address:
- Weather@NBCActionNews.com
- Put in your subject line: Blogger Meeting
- Add in why you would like to attend the meeting
In the meeting we will be going over storm spotting and chasing. We will also discuss the LRC and introduce you to our weather team. Stormy the Weather Dog will entertain as well. I will be announcing the location and time soon. So, send in your email request soon. We have limited space available and we will be sending out invitations through email next week.
Have a great day! Today's storm is being called Winter Storm Ginger, which means this is our seventh winter storm of the season. We made a list using our pets names. How many more will we have this season? Go to www.LRCWeather.com and click on the blog over there through the weekend as I update the status of the LRC and where we are within the cylcle.
Gary
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