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Strange August weather day

 

Good afternoon everyone,

The final results on yesterday's question are now in!  63% were in favor of zero degrees over 100 degrees.  I will ask the same question sometime during the harshest part of winter and see if we get different results.

This morning was a fascinating weather morning.  Flooding was occurring over parts of northwest Missouri as the day started with very heavy rain for some of you up there.  A series of outflow boundaries moved through Kansas City as the past few hours went by.  We had a nice easterly breeze blowing for a while.  Thunderstorms developed and dumped some very heavy rain at KCI airport, Liberty, the Plaza, Leavenworth, and a few other spots but it didn't last very long.  It is now slowly winding down and the heat will likely return this afternoon. 

We have a heat wave problem for next week. So, hopefully we will get some more rain tonight before the heat builds back in stronger.  Let's begin with the weak cold front moving our way.  Weak is an understatement, but it could be just enough to bring us some thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning, somewhat like today.  Below, you can see the very weak cold front forecast for early Thursday morning at 7 AM.  Notice that there are no isobars in our area so the wind fields will be very weak as well.  But, I do expect a wind shift to the north on Thursday.

GFS surface Thursday morn.gif

 

But, uh oh........look below:

gfs_600 high.gif

 

Look at the HUGE anticyclone forecast to be over the Kansas/Oklahoma border by Monday.  The circle near the KS/OK border is a 600 circle. This does not happen very often. WOW!  This is a strong anticyclone and, if it does form, it will have to go above 100 degrees.  Hopefully it will break down.

Have a great day!  We will have special graphics on the air tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM on NBC Action News.

Gary

Published Wednesday, August 08, 2007 11:31 AM by glezak

Comments

 

cledwards said:

Did the rain that was in the area last night and this morning catch everyone off guard?  I didn't see the slightest chance of rain in the forecast.  I work in Edwardsville and there was a small orange blip on the radar yesterday afternoon that passed by around 4:30 and dropped some heavy rain for about five minutes.  I don't think anyone was expecting it as a lot of people rushed outside to roll up the windows on their car! ... kinda funny actually.
August 8, 2007 12:09 PM
 

momof3 said:

I would gladly be caught off guard in exchange for the rain! If the seats in my car got wet then at least the ground would too. Come on fall!!!!!!!!
August 8, 2007 12:17 PM
 

beckysma said:

Doing the happy dance!!!  We got 1/2 inch of rain this morning at 169 & Cookingham.  We haven't had measurable rain for OVER a month!!

YIPEEEEE!!

---------------------

It is about time, since it has rained 35 days near Kansas City since June 1st.

Gary

August 8, 2007 12:25 PM
 

kurt said:

We had another 1/3 of an inch just south of st. joseph this morning, that brings the monthly total for august to 2.5 inches, which is almost triple what we had since mid June.

Also, hoping for more, those storms looked impressive to the north last night.
August 8, 2007 12:35 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Gary,

I noticed that the SPC has pulled the slight risk area down to KC. Do you think we will see any strong storms?

David

-------------------

David,

Any thunderstorm that develops will likely be rather strong.  The most likely area is west and north of Kansas City.  We will go into this on the newscasts tonight.

Gary

August 8, 2007 1:06 PM
 

Barbara said:

So this is what it feels like to see the rain so close and yet so far away!  LOL!  
August 8, 2007 1:21 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

It was close by Olathe, looked like Overland Park got some rain, I bet your house did Gary.
August 8, 2007 1:27 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Well if that anticyclone forms next week it would be just about right. Our fair is that week and it is ALWAYS HOT HOT HOT and muggy for it. We are having a BBQ tonight for alot of friends and man are we gonna sweat. LOLOLOL!!! It was planned long before I saw the heat. Oh well, we will have fun anyways. Keep cool!!
Monica
August 8, 2007 1:36 PM
 

jameskessler said:

Gary,
Can you pleae explain "600 circle"?  If it was in MM or Inches, it would make sense, but 600 does not.
Thanks,
Jim
August 8, 2007 1:56 PM
 

Eswar said:

I had no rain this morning at 151st and Mur-Len in SE Olathe.  My August rain total is only .13 inches.  I am hoping for some rain.
August 8, 2007 2:03 PM
 

Alden said:

Yes, I agree with jameskessler. Could you explain 600 Circle? And how it is rare?
August 8, 2007 2:19 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I stayed up til after 4 AM watching those storms track away from KC.  Then I go to bed a little later and miss the action here in KC.  BTW, we had no rain here in south Raytown.

Kristi
August 8, 2007 2:57 PM
 

sertorius said:

Good Hot, Humid, August afternoon to everyone in the weather center!!! Just looking at the latest hourly observations: Lawrence has a heat index of 111 right now-combine that with that cool refreshing SW breeze at 15-20 MPH-triple double yuk!!!!!! I also notice that the highest dew points in the country are right here in our own back yard-sometimes summer here...what are you gonna do-when we get under one of those big upper ridges-well, like in the movie Aliens: Game over man Game over!!!!!

It was interesting this morning-no rain here-but they had some just West of here last night and that brief period of the easterly breeze was outstanding-it was pretty nice this morning!! Have a great afternoon-I hope we can get lucky and get a storm to hold together tonight, but just watching the clouds the past 3 days-man that CAP is just big-strong-I don't know, like Hercules....

Stay cool!!!

Bill in Lawrence
August 8, 2007 4:10 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

My weather bug says it is 95 here in Lenexa with a heat index of 103. My daughter and I took advantage of the sunny day and went shopping for school clothes. Then I came home and ehaded outside to read. The dogs wanted to be in (but then they ALWAYS want to be in) and I enjoyed the day.
August 8, 2007 4:13 PM
 

AZ123 said:

There's a mesoscale discussion right now for KC and points north and west on the SPC site...apparently our "extremely unstable airmass" should produce something soon - and we may see MCS activity tonight.  What do you guys think?  Any boomers in downtown KC?
August 8, 2007 4:14 PM
 

RDub said:

600 means that the height of the 500 millibar level is 600 meters off the ground...500 millibars (mb) is a measure of pressure. So, when there is an upper high pressure system, the 500 mb level gets higher. In other words, you have to go higher in the atmosphere to reach a point where the pressure is only 500 mb.

600 meters is a very high height for 500 mb. It is rare to see the 500mb level get that high. This means a very strong upper high pressure system, which means very hot temps on the ground.
August 8, 2007 4:20 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Gary, I noticed there was a tornado warning in extreme northeast missouri,do u think we will see any storms around kc this evening or overnight.
August 8, 2007 4:21 PM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Just me again-wow-the 12Z models are pretty consistent in building that ridge early next week-the gfs has had this for a few runs now-looks like we are going from the frying pan into the fire!!!!

Both also show (I think??) a pretty vigorous upper level low comming ashore over Washington state on Tuesday-maybe this will be our ridge breaker or for lack of a better term ridge weakener!!!!! It appears the models are trying to have this sytem push the upper high down somewhat-gotta find something refreshing somewhere!!!!

The RUC is trying to give some hope but it looks like most of the action dies before it gets here-the 700 MB temps are running around 14-16 degree celecius-I think that is a pretty strong cap-will it erode in time??? Will storms actually develop?? Will Bill just take the chicken off the grill and cook it on the floor of the unfinished Club House??? Stay tuned....

Just some random thoughts-hope they make some sense!!!!!

Bill yes, still glad its not 1936 even though it does feel like 111 here currently in Lawrence

--------------------

Bill,

Next week should sizzle, but there is still hope it changes faster than the GFS is advertising.

Gary

August 8, 2007 4:32 PM
 

RDub said:

My mistake...the 600 line is actually 6000 meters above the ground, not 600. About 20,000 feet. It's in decimeters, I guess.

---------------------

Rdub,

600 stands for 600 decameters, or 6,000 meters, still up around 18,000 feet, but a bit higher since it is 600.

Gary

August 8, 2007 4:37 PM
 

jameskessler said:

Thanks guys.  I figured you meant 6,000 and not 600.  That seemed way low for half the atmosphere to be below you!
August 8, 2007 5:11 PM
 

jbtornado said:

Gary,

I have on NBC action weather plus and you have the instant warn on but you have not been interrupting for the Tornadic cells with a confirmed tornado on the ground up around Fairfax Missouri in Atchison County Missouri.. Is this just on NBC Action Plus you aren't on? I noticed the CBS and ABC station aren't doing anything either, but they all consider this in the viewing area..

Also is the LRC dying or dead? This doesn't seem like the same weather to me.. we have rain in north missouri which didn't see many storms all spring and summer and a huge building heat wave where we never had a huge high sit all summer yet
August 8, 2007 7:11 PM
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