Good morning bloggers,
(I will update this blog around noon after the new data comes out)
Something big to think about today!
The weather pattern is now bordering on becoming one of the most exciting weather patterns in many years. Sometimes this happens and you don't enjoy it until it is over. So, let's stop and smell the roses every week as we go through this year's LRC. Remember there is a lot more to the LRC than the simplicity that I try to show you! It is so complex that we really need some PHD students to grab onto my theory and do the research that I just don't have the time to do. There are two ways I try to explain the LRC to you. #1: "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges set up between October 1st and November 10th. These troughs and ridges will drive the main storm tracks through the entire season and if you are near one of these "long term" long wave troughs then you will have a much better chance of having strong storm systems throughout the entire pattern. So, not only will we likely experience the big stormy part of the pattern of the first half of December, which will return twice before our snowy season ends, but we also will have potential in other parts of the pattern since we believe one of these "long term" longwave troughs is located near Missouri extending north to the western Great Lakes states. #2: A cycle becomes established and repeats over and over again from November through summer. Every year is unique!
As we were researching for our winter forecast this year, NBC Action News meteorologist Jeff Penner came across this site: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ This is a great site with archived data. We were looking at all of the La Nina years of the past. And, we did notice a La Nina influence but at the same time we noticed the LRC and the pattern of "long term" longwaves was very different every year, and this was just more evidence that anomalies like La Nina, El Nino, etc. influence the pattern, but they don't create it. Anyway, my point is....as we were looking through all of the years we came across one very interesting find. The weather year, 1959-1960. It was a very weak La Nina year, almost neutral. But, looking at that weather pattern it appears the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges are almost identical to this year. Oh, there are differences, but the patterns are closely aligned and about a week or so out of phase. What happened in 1959-60? There was a wet October, and extremely dry November (sounds familiar), a stormier, but not so wet December, and then blast away with one of our snowiest winters in Kansas City history. 58 inches of snow fell that winter, with 20 inches in February and 29 inches in March. How does that sound to you? Wow! A pattern that actually compares to this year's weather pattern, and the results thus far have been similar. Could we be about to have a very snowy winter? It is possible and we are seeing the potential for this to happen.
The LRC appears to have a 53 to 57 day cycle, which means the part of the pattern that just produced the stormy first half of December will likely return between January 20th and February 10th, and again between March 15th and April 5th. Kansas City's biggest snowstorm in our recorded history happened in March. And, it appears that the weeks in between the stormy periods could also continue to be active. The part of the pattern that produced the 30 day dry spell of November could be much more active this time through as there was no cold air available in November. With the baroclinic zone farther north in November strong storm systems tracked across southern Canada while we were forced into the dry and warmer month. With Arctic air now readily available and likely returning in a bigger way in January, there is a very good chance that we will have an active pattern through most of this winter. The first Arctic air mass of the season was generated across Canada in November, while we were warm. That same part of the pattern is going to evolve in the next few weeks. We will get blasted sometime by a real Arctic air mass this winter, and with this pattern we are in, there will be some major winter storms in our near future.
As I said, we better stop to smell the roses. If this is really happening, it is extremely rare so let's enjoy it. Hopefully there won't be any more major ice storms, as I vote for snow over ice every time. We will stick to our winter forecast which includes 19 inches of snow, but now that we know the pattern better I am expecting it to go over that total, possilby much higher.
Last nights GFS model and other models have trended towards us having a possibility of snow on Saturday. I will add to the blog after the new data comes out later this morning.
UPDATE: The models have mostly come, still waiting on the ECMWF and UKMET. But, the Canadian model, GFS, and NAM all have a strong southern wave that must be watched for Saturday. They try to phase it into the flow which would eliminate any big storm. A slightly stronger solution could still produce snow on Saturday. The trend is away from a storm, but it is only Tuesday.
Have a great day!
Gary
