NBC Action Communities

You go on well to explain it, Gary, but "The warmer the dewpoint temperature, the more moisture is in the air." isn't entirely true without knowing the surface temp.

Also, carryover from the last blog since it is relevent to Mr. Heady...

Doug models his analysis after some LRC principles, but not all of them.  Same with me.  So to say another meterologist has bought in is a bit premature, though I will concede that Doug is using the same concept...

That is evident by a cycle..and a cycle of the same duration.

And to answer a question before Gary replies to this.  I know it is not the same version because of this quote from Doug.

"That means I can tell you now for the next 10 months when we will have storm systems move through that could give rain or snow."

The LRC has many times been stated to die in August.  That would be much less than the 10 months offered above.  Also, Doug does not allow for a transition period.  So, one day we have one cycle, the next day we have another..or so it seems by his comments.

Also, the LRC by definition does not focus on the surface.  Without a surface focus, it would be impossible to state any claim of surface impacts such as rain, snow, or other sensible entities.

---------------------------------

Scott,

We have refined the LRC this year to continue through August and September as it begins the morphing to the new pattern, so this is the LRC that Doug is using!

And, the dewpoint is a direct measurement of the moisture in the air.  The higher the dewpoint the more moisture there is in that layer of air.

Gary

Wow KOAM TV is a blast form the past, because I went to Pitt State and watched them during school, well when I actually watched the news.  Anyway, is Doug using your version of the LRC, so you guys collaborate on this or a version he's tweaked on his own?  I asked because he says 55 days and I thought you said 54 days, granted that's not much difference in a long range forecasts and maybe I've misread something.

Regardless I hope the SE Kansas and SW Missouri area doesn't get that horrible ice storm they had in December and maybe 16" of snow like I remember from one storm.

Never mind I just read that Doug and Gary are apparently working on analyzing the LRC together, according to this:

"This is a pattern I have been watching for years now.  Gary Lezak (chief meteorologist in KC) and I have done a ton of research on it over the past few years.  This is a repititive pattern that we see set up every single year in the month of October."

http://koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7495269

Hmmm...seems the LRC is open source.  LOL.  

If the theory is solid, why only stop at a 45-day forecast...why not run it out through the end of the summer?

Dew point actually is a measure of absolute moisture in the air, Scott - regardless of ambient temp.  That is what makes it a better measure of moisture than the relative humidity.  RH varies depending on temp, but dew point does not.  A day that is 50 degrees with a 45-degree dew point contains the same amount of absolute moisture (water content) as a day that is 80 degrees with a 45-degree dew point.  They will FEEL different, but have the same amount of raw (absolute) moisture.  

Going back to some earlier comments:
lvsnow said:
"First off, I am not a weather expert as alot of you seem to be pretending to be, no insult there, just reality."

I'm a meteorologist. It isn't just a hobby to me.

"But why so much criticism of Gary all of a sudden"

I've never criticized Gary, the man, only his theory.

"With that being said, lay off the man."

Again, I don't need to "lay off the man" as I've never laid into him - I've only respectfully and consistently disagreed with his idea that the weather cycles very 54 days this year...or any other year.

If by putting his theory out there, he's only seeking positive feedback, then he's got another thing coming - that isn't the way science works.  There is this little thing called "peer review" where other scientists - meteorologists, climatologists, atmospheric scientists, etc... - will review the work and take issue with it when they see the need to.  That is how science works.  "Peer reviewed" reserach is what appears in academic journals and to this date, I haven't found any indication that this theory has been adequately peer reviewed.  Sure - that other cheif met at another station is a fan, but he also used to work in this station ... and all of the current propoments in the field of meteorology have a vested financial interest in their support of the theory.  I still have yet to hear of any met outside this station that is on board wit this theory.  

That is not to say that those with vested interest cannot have a say - they certainly are entitled to it, but in order for it to gain support in the scientific community, some outside objective, peer-reviewed research will have to be completed.  I know Gary is busy and he always will be - that is how he lives his life.  But for acceptance in the professional community, there are steps that will have to be taken - time consuming, expsive work no doubt, but steps none the less.

Just because I disagree strongly with this theory doesn't mean I'm not a fan of Gary and this station (I most certainly am, as I've stated repeatedly around here) and many of you seem to have conflated my academic critique with some personal attack...to set the record straight, there is a big difference.

------------------

Notes,

Great response!  And to everyone out there I agree with Notes entirely on this comment.  He is legitimately arguing his points on the LRC.  I think that he knows that I will keep working on coming up with more compelling evidence, proof, etc. to help in showing that the LRC exists on the points I am so insistant on!  But, it will take more time.  In that interim period I welcome the critical statements.  It is still just a theory.  I hope to prove it someday, but it just hasn't happened yet.  It doesn't mean we can't still use this tool if it indeed helps us in forecasting! 

And, to answer your first question is not easy.  We can go forward and project into spring and summer.  And, I will attempt to do this soon.  It will take some time to analyze this pattern.  As you have noticed, our confidence grows into what the pattern is going to do as every week goes by.  So, let's get through this next cycle, whether you believe it is cycling or not.  Once we do, then we will firm up that it is a roughly 54 day cycle.

Gary

Excellent post Notes! And to Gary...an excellent response and someday you might get even more people on board with your theory. As for those that think Gary is beng attacked..loosen up a bit.

Bryan

Gary-Notes:  I stand corrected regarding dewpoint.  I always had it in my head as related to RH in a ratio based form.

"We have refined the LRC this year to continue through August and September as it begins the morphing to the new pattern"...

Cool.  So later when time is available, when I show this cycle goes back through September, this may also be refined again?

Gary, I am somewhat teasing, but of the whole LRC and recurring cycle, the part I struggle most with is two fold.  

First...I/we gotta figure out this whole transition thing.  I think once it can be figured out, it will give a clue to some of the other factors that establish the new pattern.  In the past, I guessed maybe it was a relationship between the hurricane season [transfer of energy to the poles] and perhaps the PNA.  Maybe that will resurface.

Second...I love the LRC discussions, and I accept the fact that it is a work in progress, but lately it seems the marketing side has grabbed on to the LRC and is doing it a disservice in assuming facts it can definitively measure.  More and more, I am not liking how it is being spun.  Even for the winter forecast, as I think I pointed out as well long ago, the main page defined that the LRC was used for its creation.  We know that isn't true since the cycle was still undefined..but it is this type of example that really creates confusion and needless negativity to what the theory can do.

One idea is while you have spent a great deal of energy defining what the theory is...how about more about how it can and is applied.  I would like some thoughts on this.  I want to know how the application is used for surface based forecasting.

I suspect I know the answer, but I would like to see some bounds applied.

Just my opinion...

--------------------

Scott,

We are applying it more and more.  Thanks in part to your pushing us to do so.  Be patient!  And, concerning your idea of the cycle starting earlier than October, it is possible, but I doubt it.  The "long term" longwaves most certainly aren't set up yet for the new season.  I think the cycle is determined after these "long term" longwaves are set.  At the same time, I am open to any other possibilities and I will be looking into your surface based ideas soon.  Email me tomorrow with all of your information once again, even though I likely have it sitting in my email already. Remember, I got back to work yesterday to all kinds of issues that I had to deal with at NBC Action News.  First of all there were 100s of emails that I am still working my way through.  So, give me some time.

Gary

Is the LRC valid for other parts of the country? I.E. can a meteorologist say in Phoenix, or Atlanta use your theory to see the same pattern there as you do here?  

lilricky - Yes.

"Some parts of our viewing area could easily get close to 50 inches of snow this winter.

Gary"

wow!....easily?......I bet Harrisonville isn't even neart that category...maybe 10 inches for the year down here?...lol.....we get one record snow winter...and I"m down in skiff town...lol

I keep hoping that the 7-day forecast will change and that the temps. will be lower with this upcoming system early next week!!  Do you see any chance of that happening or should I just accept the fact that it will primarily be a rain event?!!  Missing the snow.  :(

I appreciate multiple view points, because this isn't a blog dictated by Gary that you either believe in his LRC theory or just keep your mouth shut.  Just be respectful of everyone's viewpoints and don't throw specific stations under the bus.  I believe there's something to the LRC, but I also learn more about weather in general with Notes and Scott bring up new questions in regards to the LRC.  I knew very little about meteorology coming on here, so I just enjoy learning anything I can from this blog.

lilricky, if I'm correct, the LRC is for the whole nation.

Gary, just read yesterday's blog in which you lay out the forecast thru the rest of the winter based on this winter's LRC.  You have really laid it on the line with your forecast!!  I've been on the fence about whether I buy into the LRC because I'm a scientist and a skeptic by nature and have not done a detailed analysis of any year's LRC vs actual events.  With respect to last winter's LRC, when generally compared to last winter's actual events, I now lean somewhat towards believing in your theory.  However, if actual events the rest of the winter line up well with the forecast you gave in yesterday's blog, you will have fully converted me.  If you're right, the rest of this winter and spring will be very interesting indeed and few people (except possibly the members of the Flat Earth Society and their ilk) should be able to doubt your theory!  If you're not right, the debate will continue.

I can't wait for the Harshest part of Winter! I'm so excited, I hate this 50-60 degree weather, because it is Winter for goodness sakes!

Gary,

The SPC still has an area just south of here that could see Severe Weather on the 7th and 8th?

I am looking forward to some more moist air coming in. The drier winter air wreaks havoc on my skin.

I was fully converted this time last year on the LRC.  If I'm remembering correctly, Gary pridicted WEEKS in advance when two different storm systems would cycle back through.....and he was right, almost to the exact day.  I remember feeling somewhat nervous for him when he threw the dates out there, but when they varified....nothing short of amazing to this weather novice.  

Bring on the warm weather, but I am dreading the mud that will form in the driveway (gravel).  The ground hasn't frozen, since we have had a consistent snow and ice pack since the first week in December.  If we have two more cycles similar to the last one this winter that could put us up to 60 inches of snow for the season!  I am really praying that we don't have the horrible ice again in March when the weather starts warming up.

Also some of the schools will be going until June at this pace....

Here is a question for you Gary.  Do longwaves segment all lanes of the atmosphere?  Can I see it at 850 as well as 500?

Better copyright your threory on the LRC so when the first book is published you at least get some Royalties Gary! really weird reading about this on another sight and someone else other than you explaining it, kind of scary since you are the man!!

Protect yourself on this thing, you have put much into it and deserve the credit. OR sale out, sit back and each year for a month analyze and give out the next years LRC from a beach in the tropics.

Or last but not least, get NBC to buy "The Weather Channel " that is up for sale and you can explain this stuff all day long with no time constraints to your legion of bloggers.

Maybe even make Scott and Bill on air analyst?

Gary,

     Great blog, I cant wait to hear more on the weather pattern and the LRC...Is it possible to make an estimate oon how much snow Marceline will get in SE Linn County...I cant wait till the extreme part of winter gets here...Keep up the good work!!

This little 8th storm is amazing to watch through the trends of the GFS.  It has turned warmer now, and follows the longwave to the T.  Also, it wants to phase again in the northern stream.

Amazing?  Nah..overused.  Crazy.

Or for the non-believers...nothing to see here.  Move along.

LOL

N2 - I have a face for radio.  I will pass.  ;-)

I don't think Atlanta would buy into the LRC where they've had the driest fall on record.  So 45 to 54 days from now, they'll go through another 90 days with no precip?

We had pretty much absolutely no precip through Nov.  Anywhere from 21 to 27 days.....  With everybody's theory's we should be in at least a 2 week dry spell for now...  All of a sudden that's a poof according the the LRC.

ok so let me see if I've got this figured out Gary!
Using the big rain event in October as the starting point for the LRC.
10-17-2007....2.27" of precip
54 days later
12-11-2007...  .74" of precip (but obviously much more just north)
54 days later
2-2-2008....  guess what it's a Saturday!  (the weekend trend again??)
54 days later
3-27-2008..  guess this could be rain or snow

If you want to get really crazy August 24th had precipitation as well.  54 days before your October 17th event....hmmmm!

Hello all!,

I love this blog and read it frequently.
Could some one point me to a reference of Snow total by day for the month of Dec.

Thanks.

Well I might as well jump in on this one.  Gary introduced me to the LRC back in 2002, before it even had a name.  I am not someone who just jumps on board, so I had to do my own research.  I went to the NWS office out of Springfield MO back in 2003.  I looked back on the 500mb charts as far as I could go.  Since the late 50's I know that this pattern holds.  Now there is a lot to still figure out about the LRC. I think one of the big questions is how does this form?  And why does this pattern form?  However, we know it is there.  On the comments of how long does this pattern last.  I think we are still in a very weak version into September and then it phases into the new pattern during October.  You just have to remember we are still figuring the reasonings behind this all out.  For the past 5 years I have done a month long forecast down here and hold well over 90% accuracy on when we will see storm systems move through the area.  This pattern is really something you need to watch for an entire year to get the grasp of it.  If you do, I would be amazed if you don't see it.  Give Gary props for figuring this LRC out.  He is hands down on of the best forecasters in the country.
Doug Heady
Chief Meteorologist
KOAMTV/FOX 14
Joplin MO/ Pittsburg KS

Griffdude...this is what my numbers came from.

http://weather.kansascity.com/auto/kansascity/history/airport/KMKC/2007/11/26/DailyHistory.html

Sorry for the spelling errors.  That is what happens when I am forecasting and typing at the same time, lol
Doug Heady

Doug,

I see its merits.  Question, if you have been using it for forecasting and with long range forecasting, do you have records of your forecasts and the resulting accuracy from the theory?

This would be interesting to see.

I will ask you the same thing I have asked Gary...have you taken the LRC down to the surface yet?  Meaning that so much as you can see it in the 500mb range, have you looked at surface obs to verify?

dougbce and Griffdude, the NWS has a much better product for past events.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

dougbce, you are on the right track to the research I have done.  There are 3-5 other dates you can plot as well for temps and precip.

Garyb, I am lost by your statement above.

You have to get past the fact that one cycle's sensible weather equals day to day with cycles from the upper atmosphere.  There is a loose tie from a trending perspective, but a much stronger tie as it relates to larger scale events.

Temp anomolies +/- 5 degrees and rain events spanning more than two cycles could be considered.

Not sure how Atlanta or anything else made sense above.

What's so great about October? I believe the LRC and everything - I mean, it does keep repeating :-) -- but what's so special about why the year's pattern sets up in October, and why not another month?

------------------

Food,

The jet stream starts to strengthen from late September into October. This is when the new weather pattern sets up.  I first starting noticing this in the late 1980s.  And, we have been tracking it ever since, but only in the past 10 years have we really firmed up what is now the LRC. 

October is the most critical month for the beginning of the new pattern. 

Gary

Here's some data from Unisys on surface data at 00z and 12z for every day back through 1996 if you want to look at one date and then go back 54/55 days:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sfc_map/

"I hate this 50-60 degree weather, because it is Winter for goodness sakes"

Let me get this straight...you are already complaining about weather that hasn't even happened yet?

Hi Stormdog here:  Gary, Notes and Scott and Jopinwxman, I appreciate your intelligent and non-insulting discussions of the LRC or whatever it is eventually termed.  Being a pioneer means taking risks, some right, some wrong, but I believe, being a historian of weather events, in the most humble of meanings, that Gary and all of you are adding to our knowledge of weather, and that is to be highly commended.  Me, I am just a hobbyist, and know a bit of weather, enough to get me into trouble!!!  Take care guys and any gals...!!!  BTW  Gary should be in the Sierras tommorow!!!  Not me, keep the snow away!!!  Rain is welcome, always.

Cheers,
The Dog

----------------

Storm Dog,

Ahhhhh, that would be nice.  5 feet of snow.

Gary

very true RDub

GaryB (not Lezak):  I looked at your long range forecast the other day (Monday or Tuesday) and found the forecast of 64 degrees with thunderstorms on January 31st to be pretty striking.  Now I looked there today and see you've got a high of 11 degrees, low of -9, and thunderstorms (with heavy snow the day before)!  Wow - what induced such a dramatic change in your forecast?

Here's a question Gary, Doug, or anyone non-meteorologicaly challenged can answer.  Ok, so this LRC has setup and we're cycling now and we're getting a lot more moisture than normal, does these mean we're going to see above average moisture on through the summer so we have more severe flooding problems?  Doug I know you  experienced the terrible flooding first hand down there, so you might be more cautious to say it could be that bad.  However, I drove through Coffeville, KS a few months back and wouldn't wish that type of destruction on anyone.  I truly feel sorry for anyone who is has to deal with flooding of that magnitude.

-----------------

We haven't really looked into the spring and summer potential for this pattern.  We will do this in a few weeks.

Gary

I enjoy reading everyone's take on the weather patterns.  I really like it when everyone responds respectfully to one another on points that they don't agree with.  I learn a lot more that way.  Thanks for the great discussions today, everyone! :)  

Kristi

Noooo! all hope is extinguished!

who in the world put 50's and 60's all over the 7 day?....is this some kind of joke?...lol I'm just kidding...but man...its January...bring on the 20's!
when is the real cold that will stay a long time supposed to come back?

Brent....

still awaiting a decent snow

Notes, you are going down a slippery slope.  I will throw you a rope.  LOL

Notes...siraluce passed on my offer to go into depth on the cycle.

Are you game?

Brent..your cold air will be back soon enough.  

"Let me get this straight...you are already complaining about weather that hasn't even happened yet? "

In Andrews defense...we are looking at Gary lezaks forecast...the most accurate in KC...if  he says its going to we in the 50's and 60's for 7 days..we believe him.

Brent

My brother who transplanted to Florida several years back called me a little bit ago and said the governor issued a state of emergency because it was 30 degrees last night and it would kill the oranges and Florida didn't know how to deal with it being so cold.  He says he always gets a good laugh out of it on 50 degree days when the Floridian's have to wear extra layers of clothes because they think it's cold...lol!