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I was looking at weather maps in Florida and parts of Florida got down to 19 overnight - thing is their record low was 15 so they were not quite record cold.

Is there really a chance for Severe Weather next week just South of here?

or is

The SPC jumping the gun.

--------------

Andrew,

There is a chance, but as I mentioned so many times last spring, just wait until Saturday or Sunday and let's see how it is setting up.

Gary

Gary - I'm going skiing late next week in Colorado (Breckenridge). Will these storms affecting California also affect the Rockies?

--------------

Breckenridge will get some of the snow. I haven't really analyzed it yet.

Gary

Angelo,
I am sure that the ski conditions will be pretty good. :)  Enjoy your trip to Breckenridge. :)  I love it there. :)

Kristi

hopefully we get our chance of a snow storm like that, maybe 10 inches. do you think we could see that?

Gary-
Do you know if this cold-to-warm-to-cold-to-warm weather we've been having this season has any adverse affects on the Canadian Geese?  I mean, they seem to be confused.  Our home must be under their flight path, as I see them flying overhead quite often in the winter.  About 1/2 hour ago I saw about 50 honking geese flying north again, as if they think winter is over just because we have some warm weather coming in for a few days.  Seriously, don't they get tired of all the flying back and forth all winter each time the weather changes?  Does this cause them to have a shorter life span because of all the flying they do because they are confused?

----------------

It really hasn't been that extreme.  But, it could get wilder later this month.  So, I think the geese are fine.

Gary

Today is was mostly sunny with a COLD SOUTH wind in St. Joe. earlier it was even blowing the snow around somewhat, kind of unusual to see that with a south wind, but with the cold air mass it is trying to move out it was able to do that.  Last night I was looking at the NWS point forecasts for the California area and I thought it was neat to click on the mountains and get the forecast they had for them and I did see the predictions of winds gusting to 145 m.p.h. with snow, absolutely amazing!!!!  I also saw you show the potential for 8 inch per hour snow fall rates in your weather cast, I cant even fathom that!!  this is turning out to be one heck of a roller coaster ride of a winter.  You said that Sunday there may be a boundary near by, think fog may be an issue for areas this weekend?, even with a lot of the snow melted there will still be the soggy ground.  Nick in still mainly white St. Joe!!

your making us salivate with talk of 8 inch per hour snowfall rates Gary!

Gary, the seven day forecast looks great, but I'm thinking there's probably going to be a lot of wind associated with the warmer air. Is there a chance we'll sneak in a day or two without the howling winds?

------------------

I doubt it!  That western energy is very strong.

Gary

Creepy... you come out with your forecast, and the GFS begins to fall right in line, up through next weekend at least...  once again, WOW!!

---------------------

Nick,

It is amazing, but it hasn't happened yet.  This will be fun to watch.

Gary

Gary, remember last year there was "the storm"?  In researching last year..I actually found 4 of them that were consistant through 6 of 8 cycles.

Pretty cool.  

Also, remember how there was thought to be a warm and cold phase?  That didn't really take hold until January, but is very visible from that point forward.

Makes it easy to find that April freeze.

Its fun to play with data once you know what to look for and how to use it.

Fortunately, this year is very straight forward from a surface trending perspective.  Glad I didn't try this last year...without as much understanding and with how opposite each phase was..I am sure I would have pulled out my hair!

-----------------

Scott,

And we are closer to the features that bring exciting weather with this year's pattern.  It also makes it more fun and easier to see.

Gary

Its also very interesting to see how the maps allign with the surface impacts.

Take this year...the cold and warm trends are very definitive.

We are now exiting a cold streak that has cycled since early September.

We are entering a warm up [Jan 3rd-6th] that has cycled since mid September

We will be normal for a bit, then go into a another cold streak [started to show in November, but has traces in the previous cycle]

It flows just like the maps.

Gary,

Thanks! Severe Weather in January.... Amazing!!

And people don't even think to say that it's because of Global Warming!!

--------------

Andrew,

Severe weather is not unusual in the deep south during January.  It hasn't happened yet.  And, we haven't forecast any.  It is just too early

Gary

Gary,
   
      WOW!!!...8"per hour..thats freakin insane...what is the highest snowfall rate you have heard of around here?

That would be awesome if we got that high of snowfall rate here!! Cant wait for it to get warm, but then again cant wait for winter to come back!

-----------------

That snowfall rate is for the upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada mountains.  That would be just ridiculous.  Around Kansas City the highest I have ever seen is close to 3 inches an hour. 1 to 2 inches an hour is very heavy snow.

Gary

I was reading the winter storm warnings out for out west, and my jaw dropped when I read this:

"LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH SATURDAY...
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ARE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT...
LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET
SATURDAY."

7 to 12 FEET!! WOW! That is just incredible!!!! Plus 100 MPH winds.

"IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BUFFET THE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND CREATE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH LOCAL WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 100 MPH OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT."

Here is the entire warning:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/warnings.php?wfo=hnx&zone=CAZ096&pil=XXXWSWHNX&productType=Winter+Storm+Warning

How incredible would it be to witness this?!?

David

I am waiting for the glacier in my drive-way to retreat back to my yard.

The first January I lived in KC I remember sever thunderstorms all over the place.  Growing up in Wichita I've seen severe weather in just about every month of the year.  Remember last years Feb 28th outbreak?  

I can't concentrate on weather right now...  I am watching a heart-stopping VT-KU game.  :)

Kristi

What a great set of blog entries today. Kudos to everyone - pro and hobbyist - who has commented!

Kinda nice to have a little weather downtime so everyone can think about and discuss the bigger picture, i.e. the LRC and its existence or non.

Gary, I've seen eight inches in an hour once and 3-4 inches per hour in some pretty good storms.  It's AMAZING!!!!

I hope everybody caught the NHL Winter Classic on Sunday.  It was awesome to see the hockey game in the snow.  Boy, that brought back a lot of memories.  I'm assuming it didn't for you, Gary.

I hope everybody doesn't get so swept up in Sunday's weather that they miss the Giants' playoff game.  It will still be sunny and warm after the game.  Go Big Blue!!!

Having travelled out of state last week and also putting in a lot of hours at work, I haven't kept up with everything.  Any word on another bloggers' meeting?

The cycle is amazing.  I just researched and added a visual aid that really shows how the surface trending and upper air do relate.  It is in my blog.

I am stunned that even I can do this.  Maybe even Notes can see it?

------------------

Scott,

You are likely asking for way too much!  I am going to go and look at your blog.  It will be interesting to see how you have finally seen this connection.

Gary

How much rain per hour would equate with 8 in of snow per hour? I'm trying to somehow get a visualization of this craziness.  When I lived in FL I can remember seeing 5 in of rain in one hour and that was crazy enough... and fun to play in.  

--------------------

It would only be less than 1 inch per hour of rain, but the point is that when it is cold enough to snow, 1 inch of liquid at those temperatures is a lot.

Gary

Rock Chalk Jayhawk!!!

I am one happy KU Jayhawk fan right now!

Kristi

Gary and Team,

Is this gonna be the winter everyone has been waiting for?  Do you think your snow prediction was right on, or too low now that the LRC is able to tell you more What was the exact number of inches your predicted?  I can't quite remember.  Even I, the snow hater, is starting to get excited about more snow.  My kids are loving this.  Can we throw in a few warm days too every once in a while though?  This weekend is gonna be awesome.  I'm an outdoorsy kinda gal and will be spending some quality time out doors this weekend.

Thanks for your insight.
Keri

----------------------------

Keri,

If you read our 45 day forecast from Wednesday, then you will see that I am expecting nearly 50 inches of snow across parts of the viewing area this winter.   So, our 19 inch forecast will likely be low in most spots.

Gary

Its called 'orographics.'  The heavy snow rates out west are greatly enhanced in this way.

Along the west coast, including the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington and particularly the Sierra Nevada Range in California, as well as parts of the Rockies, great amounts of snowfall can fall from  "orographics" or "orographically enhanced precipitation."   That is when strong winds bearing large amounts of moisture slam into mountain range barriers at high speed and are very quickly lifted.  The mountains are a most efficient and quick lifting mechanism.  

The Donner Party found out about orographics many years ago.  That area of the Sierra Nevada Range - southwest of Lake Tahoe or east of about Sacramento - often has a direct line of sight to the Pacific Ocean through the Sacramento/San Joaquin River delta and the low hills of the San Francisco Bay region where the coastal range does not rob a significant amount of moisture.  That can often bring extremely heavy snows to that area in set-ups like this.

This also makes Nevada the driest state in the country.. and Utah the second driest.  It makes Death Valley the driest spot in the country.. in 'normal' years.  

But they need the precipitation in California.. it has been a dry season for a couple of years in that region and reservoirs are low.  

Of course one thing lacking in the plains region is orographics.  Purely atmospheric, or dynamic, lifting mechanisms are required in these parts.  Sometimes fronts act kind of like mountain ranges in this region, which is often referred to as 'over running.'

One frequently  used term today that I would be interested in hearing a clear, layman description of 'isentropic lift'..    

-----------------

We will go over isentropic lift at another time, but thanks for the discussion on orographic lifting.  I grew up in Southern California, so I know this term quite well.  When conditions are right oragraphic lift is the best lifting mechanism to produce precipitation.  And, this set up over the west coast right now is impressive. 

Incline Village is a mountain town on the north shore of Lake Tahoe.  If you drive from Incline Village to Reno, NV you can experience the dramatic contrast that this orographic lifting produces.  As you approach the summit on Mt. Rose highway it can be snowing at 2 to 3 inch per hour rates and then once you go over the top and start decending the sun will come out and even though it is still snowing that downsloping and sinking air can be impressive.  Just watching those clouds fall apart is fascinating.

Gary

Gary are you changing the snow amount you predicted for the Metro area?  

----------------------

A forecast is a forecast.  So, when we made the winter forecast we thought there was potential for some significant snow, but we were unsure of the cold air potential.  Now that we are certain that there will be some long stretches of cold the forecast snow amount of 19 inches that we made in November is likely way too low in many spots.  As I stated two days ago, we think some parts of the viewing area will approach 50 inches of snow this winter, if not exceed that number.  For Kansas City it will likely go above that 19 inch forecast, possibly much higher.

Gary

gary with 8 inches per hour and all that wind what kind of drifts are they looking at man i cant picture what they are in store for.

-----------------

Remember, this will be happening on the slopes of the Sierra Nevada.  There will be tremendous drifts.

Gary

Downsloping is fascinating to watch.. In the coming satellite photos, one should see it well in the  in the lee of the coast ranges as well as the lee of the Sierra.  The parallel lee wave clouds should be impressive at times.  But the wind is so strong, some of the moisture might get carried over the crest of the Sierra giving places like Reno surprising amounts.. with the rain shadow taking hold farther east.  I have seen the same effect in Palm Springs, CA, on a few occasions.  

----------------------

I know Reno is expecting 2 inches liquid, but I wonder, seriously, if this westerly flow is just too much for them.  I won't be surprised if they get less than 1/4th that total.  It is not an easy place to forecast precipitation amounts.

Gary

Gary,
Sorry to switch subjects here, but I was plotting the cyclical forecast on calendar and paper and noticed a gap in the pattern at the end.  If we are using 54 days between events, then what will happen after Feb 20th till Feb 26th?  I will assume calm and quiet, but the temperature is the question.  My guess is cooler than normal but not much below normal like what will happen in phase 2.

Any thoughts?
BAClair

--------------------

BAClair,

After the stormy stretch that period around February 20th-25th is sort of the pattern we are in right now, so it should be a calmer period.

Gary

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Don't get me wrong - but isn't 12.9" of liquid like 129" of snow (10'9") at a bare minimum? Of course, some other models put them in only 6-8" of QPF but that's still 5-7 feet.

Good Morning weather team...I have a buddy who lives in June Lake, CA...I believe he told me they were expecting about 2 to 3 feet of snow. I have requested pictures from him during and after the storm. I couldn't imagine what KC would be like with that much snow. Probably shutdown the city.

Bryan

-------------

Bryan,

Let us know if you get any pictures.  I have driven by June Lake many times.

Gary

For those that are tracking surface trends or how it may be part of the LRC, highlight this week in your notes.

We are seeing three major things happening.  Come the next few times through the cycle, this week may actually be more telling that what most people are watching for the Oct/Dec/Late Jan part of the cycle.

1.  Abnormally strong high pressure that surged deep into the South.  This did two things, first it brought very cold air very far south.  The depth of this surge was impressive.

It is this recurring cold streak evident since September that I go into details on my blog about.

Second, with the strength of the High pressure, it brought signficantly strong pressure gradient spawned winds.  Very strong return flow behind the high pressure.

2.  Very strong low pressure following in its wake.  While not the deepest I have seen, this low hitting Cali is very strong.  If it were a hurricane with the current 964mb readings, it would likely be a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 hurricane.

The winds being recorded are not that suprising to me.  Also, this storm brings a nice helping of moisture with it.

These are some very stricking dynamics.  While it is expected as the jet dips to see more amplitude, this is a bit more than normal.  Also, this storm has cycled twice before, so it is here for the duration.

This would be a storm I would look into Spring to keep a very close eye on.  Strong pressure and temp gradients, very strong return flow and ample precip.

This is a severe outbreak waiting to happen in the last week of April and the middle of June.  That is quite a distance out there, so hold off on buying your helmets just yet.

;-)

---------------

Scott,

Good observations.  Jeff was saying the same thing last night.  This part of the pattern in May could be crazy.  Will there be a cap, etc?

Gary

I was wondering about that Scott. This storm system of this magnitude coming back in April would really be a prime setup for Severe Weather. After last year around KC, it would be nice to see more storms this spring.

Actually Scott, that might not be a bad forecast.  Look back in November at this time in the pattern.  Severe storms and a few tornadoes on Nov. 14 in the TN/KY area, then again 7 DAYS LATER down in MS/AL, granted nothing tornadic, but hail and wind involved.  
I am eyeing Feb.3rd and Mar. 28th as big letter days, as by the pattern.  Just a wild guess per the pattern, but we'll see.  Also put down the period between May 13th and May 20th as the big severe weather week; that's using another cracked pot theory!!!

Hello All - I have a question that may be a bit off topic, but nonetheless thought I would throw out to the group.  Since the ground is a bit frozen from the last stretch of cold weather, and since it appears we may be inline for some rain, will this increase the chances for localized flooding?  

----------------

It would be a factor.  But, there is no really wet storm setting up right now.  Monday's set up has some potential for thunderstorms and rain, but perhaps not enough to cause flooding here. 

Gary

Gary - Here is another nail in the coffin for support of my method of surface trending.

For grins, I checked another location very different than KC to see if the same specific temp trend existed for the last three cycles.  I picked Atlanta.  I figured that was far enough away and in a different climate, it would be interesting to see if it matched.

It does!  Adding 3 days forward for each streak, still 54 days apart, but 3 days later than what would be trended here in KC, you will see the cold streaks recorded per the NWS.

It would be consistent with the pattern, so yes...it also validates the LRC..but in totality it shows that the surface trends and the upper air trends to directly correlate and that it is quite possible to see the "LRC" much earlier than December, or that it sets up in October to November.

Can you see it yet?

7-12 feet imagine if their wasn't Global Warming.

Looking forward to the warm up, but where is that sunshine I saw on this mornings forcast!!!!  Everyone seems happier when the sun comes out.

8 inches per hour, how is that even possible???????????????????

Wow what the heck is going on right now?  This weather is absolutely INSANE out west.  I have relatives that live around LA, luckily not areas prone to mudslides, and I'm guessing there not enjoying this mess right now.  The pressure of a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane in the NW and freezing temps in Florida.  Just amazing to watch this unfold.  Then KU wins the Orange Bowl.  Not to mention this LRC theory has me worried about the months ahead.  I'm starting to wonder if I'm a little behind in building my underground bunker and stocking up a years supply of food.

New blog anytime soon?

------------------

Andrew,

Maybe later.  I am just wiped out today.  We will try to do one soon.

Gary

Found this out there..kinda cute....the NWS does have a sense of humor.

At the end of this part is today's forecast discussion from San Fran...

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CST MON DEC 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND ONCE AGAIN THIS YEAR
THE NWS IS FORECASTING ON THE METEOROLOGICAL FRONTIER.
THE MODELS ARE IN DISCORD WITH THIS TROF ON THE WAY...
AND WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF SNOW IS IN PLAY.

THE NAM IS IN A HURRY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS SLOW.
WHICH ONE TO BELIEVE AND DO I CONTINUE WITH SNOW?
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SURFACE WINDS WON/T HELP BECAUSE THERE ISN/T ANY BACKING.

WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND NO HOPES FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO FALL FROM ALOFT TO DOWN BELOW.
WITH SO MANY DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL
I FOLLOWED THE GFS SO I WON/T HAVE TO TWADDLE.

THE SLOWER PROGRESSION REQUIRED SOME CHANGES...
I ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDED DIURNAL RANGES.
WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING THAT THE GFS MIGHT SUGGEST.

POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPPED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
30S NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AS THE GRIDS WILL DISPLAY.
WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM AND THE DYNAMICS GOING NORTH...
ONE INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IN THE GRIDS WILL GO FORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL.
THE AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO RULE.
SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST...
THE TIMING OF THE TROF WILL DETERMINE WHEN THEY CEASE.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH JUST A BIT OF CRITIQUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AND PRECIP CHANCES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.

FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST THINGS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE
BESIDES...THE STORM FOR LATE CHRISTMAS LEFT A PRETTY FULL PLATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SOME OF THE FIELDS...
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE MIGHT YIELD.

TO THOSE WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN THAT THIS DISCUSSION IS IN RHYME...
MY APOLOGIES TO Y/ALL...I AM HAVING A GOOD TIME.
FOR WE AT THE NWS HAVE TO WORK ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND I TRY TO HAVE FUN WHEN I CANNOT GO OUT AND PLAY.

REGARDLESS OF THAT...WE WILL BE SITTING RIGHT HERE
KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE WEATHER...BE IT CALM OR SEVERE.
TO CLOSE OUT THIS DISCUSSION...AND I KNOW I AM RIGHT...
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS AMARILLO AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!

-----------------------------------------------
from NWS San Juan

THIS OVERNIGHT TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A SMOOTH
RIDE FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER. LATEST POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NORAD DEFENSE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING A SMALL
FEATURE JUST PASSING GREENLAND AT THIS TIME. GFS ENSEMBLE ANALYSES
DEPICT THIS FEATURE TO EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

-----------------------------------------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007

...DUE TO THE DREADED LACK OF COLD AIR...KEYS COMMUNITIES WILL BE
FOILED ONCE AGAIN IN EXPERIENCING A WHITE CHRISTMAS...

....CLIMATE...
DESPITE HAVING WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE...ONE RATHER
KEY INGREDIENT BEING "COLD AIR" IS LACKING TO FULFILL A WHITE
CHRISTMAS. ALTHOUGH SO CLOSE...OUR RECORD STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE
YEARS WITHOUT A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN KEY WEST IS NOW 137...WITH
RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1871. OH WELL...MAY BE NEXT YEAR


Here is the forecast discussion for San Fran.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=mtr&pil=afd

40MPH sustained - 80MPH+ gusts...and holy cow...200kt plus jet streak!

Here is the sat...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_west.html

Gary, do you have any plans to update your snowfall forecast for the winter?

----------------

Alden,

I am not going to update the snow forecast.  As mentioned in the blog earlier this week, I am expecting the 19" forecast to be low.   The way the weather pattern is I would be shocked if parts of the viewing area don't more than double that number, but down south it has been a struggle thus far.

Gary

everyone keeps asking Gary if He's going to change his forecast...lol but he says he's not going to!

I like someone who sticks to their forecast....
lets just hope we don't get another ice storm....lol that would prove your forecast wrong...but so far you have done really well...

I don't know whether to be little worried about the temperatures dropping below freezing when this rain is still around or not.  I just don't like the looks of these two images, because it's pushing the colder air down farther south.
http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_P2TS_108.png
http://models.easternuswx.com/euro/ECM_00_opNA_P2TS_120.png

Is there a chance we could see some snow out of this system on monday?

About snow for Monday.

If you believe the current GFS trend, it wants to put the surface low through the central KS going straight NE.  We would have rain on Monday night as the cold air would be lagging a bit behind.

Ahead of a 850mb low, almost always to the east of it - it will be rain.  Based on the 90hr view, this is what it looks like to me.

But - I am not quite buying into the path of the GFS yet.  The longwave this year dictates that this should dig a bit further south and east before riding NE through Central Missouri.

If that happens, which would be feasible..then I could see a bit of commahead potential for snow...but it would be light.

All along, I guess I have thought based on the surface trends we would get a low output somehow from this storm.  I am thinking .25-.5 max for any liquid precip totals.  If snow, I would throw in the obligatory 1-3 inches if the storm follows the longwave.

Brent, you will not see any snow...just because it's you.  LOL  No - any snow would be in its usual spot this season thus far to the N and NW tapering to the SE, as this would be consistent with where the longwave is and how the past few stormtracks have followed.

Just what I think.

Something interesting and I have no idea if this fits into the LRC and/or what will happen early next week, but I went back and found that between Nov. 13th - 15th the high temp dropped 16 degrees from 65 to 49 and was below freezing at night.  Also, the winds started from the south on the 13th and were picking up with 30mph gusts out of the north by the 15th.  So according to the LRC's 54 day cycle, should I expect similar events for the 6th, 7th and 8th?  The only difference this time around according to the models is there's a nice chunk of moisture showing up.  Am I off base on this whole thing?

Gary,

I am gonna guess I missed that 50 inch total that you put out there.  That is alot of snow.  I don't know if I am that excited anymore or not.  Sorry you had to repeat yourself.  

Keri

nastyweather, you are very close.

The events you describe above were a warmup due to the return flow ahead of a surface front.  Then the surface front comes through, and the winds shift from the S to the N.

If you look at this event through the last two cycles, it is weak..but there.  In Sept, there was rainfall, and in Nov, there was rainfall at the tail of the storm.  This is why I doubt we will get a huge amount of rain that the GFS wants to show.  

I think it could produce the rain..but if the longwave holds serve, this rain should go SE of us leaving us with minor precip.

This is what I think.  

nastyweather,

You are now starting to go down the path I did this summer and last summer in finding surface trends.  While this one in the cycle is relatively weak, you will find other temp and precip trends that are cycling that are easier to see and are stronger matches.

Keep looking..you will find more.  And as I tried to show in my blog [click my name], I believe it matches to the LRC in the maps in what they show as well...

Being a winter forecast, should it be assumed that any forecast would be terminated at the end of winter?  Obvious question, but I want to know if we are considering winter until March 20th or March 1st.  It  will make a difference.

Some say spring is March - April - May..so to that extent, winter would be December - January - Feb.

Look at the current snow totals for KMCI.  9.4 inches for December.  I think that is about normal, but liquid precip was above normal [where did I hear this before?  LOL].

For the original forecast, I think there is a good shot at hitting it still.  We may have a blast in late Jan/early Feb...but that is alot of snow to come up with in a short time.

And remember the longwave and where its at.  Areas N and NE might see alot more snow..but I am not sure KMCI or points SE will go much above what was originally forecasted due to the longwave/stormtrack.

Just what I think.

I think Gary should stick with the 19" forecast he made ealier. With the pattern the way it has been this winter, yes, places like Atchison, Topeka, and St. Joe may see 50" but Kansas City will probably be spared by the majority of the precip. Yes, we could see a good 8" snow sometime down the road but mostly I think we will see 1-2" storms much more commonly. Where I live we have already seen between 8 and 9" of snow... add in a few more 2" snows and maby one 6 or 8" storm and 19" is pretty close

(Much closer than saying 50", that is :-) )

"Some say spring is March - April - May..so to that extent, winter would be December - January - Feb. "

Yes, some, like NOAA/NWS for example. All official seasonal climate records are set up based on Winter being DJF, Spring is MAM, Summer is JJA and Fall is SON.

Scott I read your blog and see what you're talking about with surface data.  I guess I didn't know understand Gary's LRC and the surface data.  Anyway, I just had one of those jawdropping moments, because of this data from the Olathe airport:
August 16th -  

Ok my post was screwed up early, from Olathe Airport check this out:
August 16th - .61" of rain
October 7th & 8th - .65" of rain
December 1st - .24" of rain
Wow that is just crazy how every 54 days approximately there is rain.  So I'm looking for something to happen yet again on January 24th.

thanks scott....quite depressing for me though...

Nastyweather, regarding the 24th.

Look at the most recent 45 day from Gary:

"January 25th -February 20th:

The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th.
"

Here is what I have in my updated January forecast:

"Last, but not least...our most active part of the cycle kicks up around the 24th...this will last for about 10 days. Expect signifcant snowfall in this time frame. While it may start as rain for a day or two, expect a plunge of colder air. This will bring some signficant accumulations to the area."

Specific to the storm you refer to, yes..there is a pretty good match on that date as well.

We will have to keep watching this trend...lets see if it works throughout the year.  I believe it will.  Not just precip, but temp trends too.

Then...as I did in my blog, I believe its possible to map each event to a frame/map of the cycle to further show why it happened.

Only then will we have stronger proof of the cycle..but...like you are seeing...the trends show the cycle likely started earlier than October.

A cycle in the atmosphere has long been dreamed of and sought out.  This is not a new concept...what is exciting is how the LRC uses longwaves and charts the trends in a defined cycle in the upper levels.  Equally as exciting is how trending surface events can also yield the same results.  And most exciting is how the surface trends and the upper air movement/trends can be mapped together.

So..as passionate as Gary is about the LRC and its discovery, I feel the same about this method.  

Keep watching...this year will be fun.

Gary,

Great job!  I will be watching with much anticipation for the remaining weather events.  Having been in the Lake Tahoe region many times, I can't even fathom 8 inches per hour.  Is this Thunder snow, or something even more extreme?

Glad to have you back!  Brett and Jeremy did a great job keeping us up to date - and they continue to do so.  You guys are the best I have seen in my almost 50 years . . .

Jeff
Scouter1900

Gary,

From the NWS for the Lake Tahoe area, including the Lake Tahoe Basin:

CAZ072-NVZ002-051615-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...
TRUCKEE...MARKLEEVILLE...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE
403 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY

TONIGHT
WINDY. HEAVY SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
WITH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. LOWS 15 TO 25. SOUTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING. RIDGE GUSTS
UP TO 110 MPH DECREASING TO 95 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
WINDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. HIGHS 20 TO 30.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RIDGE GUSTS
UP TO 85 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
WINDY WITH SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14
INCHES...WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. LOWS 10 TO 20.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. RIDGE GUSTS
UP TO 105 MPH.

SUNDAY
BRISK WITH SNOW. HIGHS 18 TO 28. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.

WOW!!!  Have you ever been in anything like this before?  These Cat 3 Hurricane force winds on the Ridge!

Unbelievable!

Jeff
Scouter1900