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Jeff..what ideas are you currently looking into for the blogger meeting?

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All kinds of things!

what actually happened at the blogger meeting?

Gary,

I was wondering what the record is for total snowfall at one time here in KC? Also I am sorry that I have not blogged for a long time, but I do read the blog every day, you're the best!!!!

I know its early and hard to predict, but what is it looking like for next weekend, the 12th-13th?  We have company coming into town from just north and want them to be able to make it.

I sent a couple of pictures and figures it will rain...I washed my truck today!  Have a great weekend everyone.  

Well if the LRC is correct sometime around the 14th there will be another storm in the area.  We had .25" of rain in Olathe on the Nov 21st and 54 days from that is Jan. 14th  and the GFS shows a little something on that day already.  Should be good to go until Sunday night, but that's my uneducated opinion.  Scott your thoughts?

nastyweather,

It's a loose match.  The precip trend isn't that strong.  I would have to look at my other data to see if the temp trends match..but in a prelim look..it too is loose.

Normally in the trending if I don't see a strong repetitive match, I don't discount cycle, but the potential.  

I believe we have seen three cycles.  If I see a match in two..then I will consider it.  If it was a loose match with a day or two seperating the events within the cycle, I consider that as well.  

So..when we have say - 6 cycles to review, then if I see a match in 5..its pretty firm.  4, possible.  3. I would have to go into further research of the dynamics of each day.  2.  Coincidence.  1.  Wouldn't look at it.  

Also would have to consider days within a day of the cycle to analyize as well.

The one you picked out is loose.  It is possible, but it is not signalling a strong storm to me.  It may end up to be a dry surface front with little precip to work with.

As we cycle through a few more times..this gets easier as there is more data to review.

Can Somebody put in order from strongest to weakest, the storm systems for this year? I want something so I know which storm systems to watch in the Spring.

Example:

December 1st Storm - Strongest

"
"
"
December 8th storm- Weakest        

Something like this!

Thanks!

Gary, Jeff  , I think you might have to rent the Sprint Center for our bloggers meeting with all thenew bloggers.

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I know, we have to think how we would do it.

Gary

          any chance of any rain evening/ or tonight looks like rain to the southwest on radar??

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No, it is all aloft!

Gary

Is this "bloggers meeting" for adults only? And what goes on during a bloggers meeting? sorry for the questions.

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Last year's meeting was by invitation only.  We had 100 people and it was nice to meet everyone.  Our weather team did a presentation and then we answered questions. 

And, Stormy the weather dog made an appearance too!

Gary

do I know anyone in that picture?

hey Scott...if you don't mind, whats your last name?...no big deal if you don't want to tell me...  8)

I am definitely going to attend the next bloggers' meeting!  I would love to see more pictures. :)

Grant,
It looks like bloggers brought their kids with them as I see a kid in the picture.

Kristi

It really would be awesome to have another bloggers meeting...I'd love to be able to put some names with faces.

Gary,

The GFS has done a much colder route..all of the sudden...if it was to verify it would be light rain Monday t\storm over st.Louis and snowfall after that heavier south..whats your take? how does it fall in line with LRC and is the GFS just "out to lunch" ? Thanks

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This is a storm, the last time through the cycle, that really produces just east of us.  So, this trend fits perfectly.  The GFS has just gone from a chance of thunderstorms to a chance of snow, but let's see how it looks this weekend.

Gary

GFS is plunging a massive artic airmass in the long range pattern towards the 20th. Of course, this is way out and we cant buy a single model run, but the GFS seems to be wanting to run the -10c line down to MO and now wants to run a -30c down through Iowa...

sprinkles in  Lee's Summt right now 6:15pm
strange

Perhaps you could incorporate some training into the next bloggers meeting; especially with spring storms just around the corner. Not to take the place of the NWS training, but to supplement it.

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That may be the direction we take!

Gary

TWC is calling for severe thunderstorms here Monday, courtesy of the 'monster storm on steroids' currently hitting the Sierras/Rockies.  Are they even close ?

Gary & crew, thanks for the great work !

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Nope, but snow is possible.

Gary

sorry, lost track of the time (and earlier comments)!

So the new NAM and GFS both take the potential snow to the north around St. Joe to Kirksville ...Imagine that...can't we for once get blasted..of course it still isn't here so I'll be watching the new runs this weekended (yeah I got no life) lol :-) Isn't it weird how last year the heavy snow was south and this year north so that means next year right on top us us...lol

Gary thanks, I'm a still-celebrating Jayhawk. will try to get back on track!

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The Jayhawks should be #1 in the nation!  In the old system years ago they would have won half of the National Championship.

Gary

Gary, that kindly comment from a Sooner is greatly appreciated!  
This western storm is unprecedented, isn't it? The possible major snow storm just north of us seems awfully close, so should we be preparing for any shift south? These extremes (64 Sunday, maybe snow in St. Joe Monday) are bizarre.

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The wild weather likely during the next 45 days may pale in comparison to that extreme.

Gary

If we get snow then idk wat i will do

OMG. Your LRC was scary enough without that comparison ! ;) But I surely do appreciate your work.

The bloggers meeting was a dream for my brother and I.  We took our spouses to the meeting.  Seeing part of the station and meeting the weather team was the highlight, but the storm chasing presentation was terrific.

I agree with the previous suggestion of some weather spotter training in the meeting.  It would also be great to see behind the scenes at the weather center/station.

We hope to be there for meeting #2!

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit

Gary,

Looking forward to the next bloggers get-together, which will be my first.  I posted the NWS forecast for the Lake Tahoe Region on your previous posting - WOW!!!

I can't even imagine . . .

Thanks for all you do!

Jeff
Scouter1900

From the previous blog earlier today...

"If snow, I would throw in the obligatory 1-3 inches if the storm follows the longwave. "

LOL

SREF is still going for rain...will have to look at the trends tomorrow.

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Scott,

It will be quite difficult for this storm to produce snow, but it is January.  And, the GFS is continuing the perfect trend into the 45 day forecast.  This is truely fascinating.  I will be looking at your stuff over the weekend.

Gary

the nam and gfs are on completely different pages at the moment...

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Murph,

They really are close.  Both have the potential winter storm.

Gary

ha! i was comparing old data...i cant read...my bad!

yeah they do seem pretty similar.  i will be more excited this time tomorrow if it is still there.  48 hours out is when i personally start taking the models seriously.  so, according to your theory, this should get its act together east of us, not really putting us in the crosshairs, right?

Gary,

     Is there the possibility of getting t-storms/rain transitioning to snow, or just rain, or just snow...in your mind at the moment what are you leaning to or is it just a little too far away to tell?...This blog has helped me a lot...I want to get into meteorology in some way and this blog is a great learning experience for me...I added this site and TWC as my favorite sites..I like the weather channel and watch it everyday..They may not be the most accurate, but they tell a lot of information which helps me learn. I also like the local on the 8's...Thanks for all the hard work you and all the other meteorologists have done and are doing to keep us informed and safe.. I appreciate your guy's work..Thank you :)

I think it is pretty cheap to book large rooms at the independence hilton.  They have a lot of conference rooms and screens and such.  I bet everyone would be willing to pay a small fee for the opportunity and the knowlege offered by our favorite wx forecasters.  I have some connections and would be willing to look into it if you would like.  Just thought I'd throw it out there since I doubt the station will hold all of the bloggers at this point! =)

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If/when we have a bloggers meeting you won't pay for anything.

Jeremy

The bloggers meeting last year was interesting and a lot of fun.

I know this isn't the place to post this, but maybe one of you can pass it to the news room.... There is a terrible wreck on I-29/35 N at E. 16th Ave.

"The wild weather likely during the next 45 days may pale in comparison to that extreme."

WOW Gary you know how to get someone excited for winter weather!! ha

I cant wait until spring time thunderstorms get here! But then again, if the wild cycle has sever weather with it for this area... might be a bit more than i would like.. !!! Either way i sure think (hope) this spring is going to be exciting!

but i think i should just focus on the winter stuff for now.

Thanks to the weather team (and scott, and others) for this blog. Its on my "to check" list everytime i get to my computer.

f00dl3 said:
GFS is plunging a massive artic airmass in the long range pattern towards the 20th. Of course, this is way out and we cant buy a single model run, but the GFS seems to be wanting to run the -10c line down to MO and now wants to run a -30c down through Iowa...

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yeah thats just a bit on the cold side !!!!!!

Good warmish morning to the Weather Team!!!!

Currently sitting at 37 degrees this morning under clear skies.

A little word of warning: be carefull on the sidewalks this morning if you still have any snow left on the ground-even though our temp. is above freezing some of the sidewalks and even parts of the side streets have developed a bit of ice/frost on them due to how cold the pavement still is and the snow left on the ground. Not really a big deal but I did wind up in the air this morning as I did not think about it. Pretty interesting stuff that the snow on the ground combined with the cold pavement can still litely freeze on the pavement even though we are above freezing.

The boy's snow fort really took a hit last night as we did not get below freezing-it kind of looks like an ancient ruin you see-just a crumbeling mish mash of snow LOL!! Although I know we always have thaws the winter weather lover in me is kind of bummed to see the snow go-I realize 99% of the population think I am crazy for this, but we did have a very impressive snow pack one that we do not get here often (not just in the past 10 years but over the past 100) and it is just kind of sad to see it go. I do trully believe it will return but there are no garuntees so when you get one like we had it is just kind of a bummer when it goes-you always know it will, but I am like Snoopy-I know it will go away but it still bums you out when it happens!!

A few final random thoughts this morning:

1. I think it is very interesting that the models are indeed showing (at least I think they are LOL) a big build up of cold air in Canada and indeed by around the 20th of this month the real colder air begins to inflatrate the U.S.-very similar to what we saw from Thanksgiving to around the first of December. I think???

2. The one concern I have been thinking about is the cold air-I really think it is an X factor for the end of the month in the idea of how strong will it be-one of my fears is that it become too strong and the storms that affected us in December will be suppressed to the south. Or will it kind of just ooze down here and we stay in the 30's?  Just something random I have been thinking about-I do fully believe that there will be much energy comming in from the SW U.S. later this month-but what does the cold air do?? Does this make any sense?  I feel kind of like Lelie Nielson in Airplane-and what I am doing here??? LOL

I hope this makes a little sense-even though I am sad to see the snow go, I know that from living here my entire life, snow here is very much like fame: fleeting-it can not by climatology stay around for 6-8 weeks and a thaw is always in the cards-thus, I will get out and enjoy the warmth today shall bring-I hope the weather team gets to do the same!!! Have a great day

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The cold air will return in full force later this month.  Probably the snow too:)

Enjoy the 50s and 60s this weekend and what's left of the snow.  The snow took a huge hit overnight in KC with temps remaining in the 40s! 

Jeremy