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This is going to be an interesting storm to watch.  I am fascinated that the storm could be warm and have thunderstorms in the KC area in January.  I am even more fascinated that it come be either warm or cold for this storm.  Is it unusual to not be sure which way the storm will happen in January?  I know in November or March it could go eithe way but I think it is strange for January.  Have a great Saturday.

Jeremy:

Good morning to you!! How was your time away from the station? Hope you got to enjoy some quality time with the kids!!!

Quick Note: A pretty good fog just popped up here in Lawrence-I think due to the warm air comming over the top of the snow-but made me wonder if I am not in a John Carpenter movie-are the ghosts of the pirates comming?? LOL

Thanks for the response earlier-I will for sure enjoy the warmth and hope you get to do the same!! It is just awesome to me how you can see that cold air building over Canada right on cue and that is what I am really looking at as in my own little hobbyist mind that is kind of what kick started the active period in both October and in late November-not sure if that is even close to being on track or not, but just my own little random thoughts!! Going to be awesome to watch the next 4 weeks-just awesome stuff indeed!!

Have a great day and again thanks to you, Gary, Jeff, and Brett for making this such an incredible place to follow and more so learn about the weather!!!!

Bill oho Pirate John is knocking on my door in the Fog in Lawrence

I really liked the forecast last night, but I was hoping to wake up and find a blog about a winter storm..lol... ************ Certainly not ruling it out...but where you live the chances are lower! Jeremy

Well December was amazing, so I will take this storm any way it wants to come through, Yes the snow is shriveling up here in St. Joe, but there are still good areas of white around here, if I had to guess I would say that as of right now my yard is still close to 80 % covered in white.  As of tomorrow, we will have had at least SOME snow and or ice on the ground for a month straight here in St. Joe, since the December 6th snow event, really amazing!!  right now we are socked in with low clouds and it is a wet one, a lot of slush, and soon mud will be an issue. ************** Nick, Even with some snow on the ground you will warm into the 50s today. The south winds will be blowing over mainly bare ground now. Jeremy

Jeremy, you described my morning!  I woke up to find most of the snow had melted overnight!  It feels so warm I even took my coffee out to the front porch for a short while.  Looking forward to getting details for this next week. Thunder? Snow?  Maybe more thunder snow! ************* The less cold the solution for the next storm=the better chance for t-storms. Jeremy

I have seen 70 Degrees and Thunderstorms one day and Snow the next day.  That is KC weather baby. **************** Hopefully we don't go quite that extreme...but it may be close:) Jeremy

Temps right now at my house are 46.8 degrees...I'm so LOVING this!  It feels like spring! :)  I wish it could be like this all winter. ************ I'm with you...but I know many love the snow and cold and it will return. Jeremy 

The 0Z and 6Z GFS shows a colder and stormier pattern in the longer range. I do not think the warmer air will last that long. However, this has been fairly common this winter. We have not really seen any long periods of well above or below normal tempertures. The temps have been slightly above or below normal overall. The TRUE arctic air has not hit us yet because the lowest temp so far in the viewing area has been close to 0F. ***************** I think when the 'stormy' part of the pattern returns even KC will see a day or two below zero assuming we have some snow on the ground during part of that stretch. I think around Feb. 23 or 24 this recent cold airmass should return. Obviously there will be others, but 54 days out puts a cold part of the cycle around then. Jeremy

Can Somebody put in order from strongest to weakest, the storm systems for this year? I want something so I know which storm systems to watch in the Spring.

Example:

December 1st Storm - Strongest

"
"
"
December 8th storm- Weakest        

Something like this!

Thanks!

The SPC says theres a Slight Risk for Severe Weather just South of KC.

Can Somebody put in order from strongest to weakest, the storm systems for this year? I want something so I know which storm systems to watch in the Spring.

Example:

December 1st Storm - Strongest

"
"
"
December 8th storm- Weakest        

Something like this!

Thanks!

The SPC says theres a Slight Risk for Severe Weather just South of KC.

So when you say cooler in the northern viewing area on Sunday, how north are you talking?  We live near Liberty and were hoping to get my daughter out on her new big wheel tomorrow.  What will our temps be? ************* I think on Sunday 'north' would be north of Platte City or Weston. Those locations will be very close to the front. I think the metro is in the low 60s Sunday, unless the front drops farther south or it is completely cloudy. Look at today...fog and low clouds have kept areas to the north around 40 so far today. Once the low clouds push north...I think even northern areas get around 50. Jeremy

I love having a good snowstorm, but this jump in temperatures, with warmer moist air, is much needed break.  Heck I opened up all the windows, turned off the heater, and just let the "spring time" air fill up the house.  Didn't think I would like this warm up, but it feels great.  Hate to say I wish it would last a little longer, but it's winter after all.

Jeremy IF someone in our area sees snow Tuesday, obviously not Brent, would there be a good chance of "thundersnow?"  Also, IF we see a drop in temps is it more likely this will be all snow or a mix bag of snow/sleet/freezing rain?

Brent a group of us should "borrow" one of those snow making machines from Snow Creek in Weston and give you the snowstorm you just can't live without.  Assuming you don't mind the fake stuff. LOL

"borrow" one of those snow making machines

haha nice...LOL

It is beautiful outside! Almost all of our snow in Lenexa is gone, leaving behind a lot of sticky mud. I will definitely being taking my dog on a couple of walks this weekend to take advantage of this warm up! ************ Enjoy the mild weather now! Jeremy

so the GFS flip flopped he other way...how do we know when it makes up its mind? lol

**************

The 12Z GFS is a little more in line with previous runs.  The 6Z seemed kind of odd and it looks like some rain, then maybe followed with snow in some areas.  Hopefully the 18Z continues the trend and then I will have much more confidence with the current forecast.

Jeremy

Jeremy, most models are advertising a stronger northern stream and weaker southern stream with this system.  Wouldn't you agree that this would not be the case, since the southern stream is almost ALWAYS stronger with these "split" systems???

My weather station is reading 62.1 degrees outside in Kingsville. Wondering if reading high? Even if it is, it's nice outside although a bit breezy.

***************

I think that is correct where you live.  59 or 60 now in KC!  Enjoy!

Jeremy

The GFS does get this storm back on track into the longwave.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_072.shtml

Notice the 500 mb vort over about Joplin or just a hair south?

Rain to start the event, with wrap around bands of snow behind it.  With the vort about 50 south of the last few, we might find the snow bands come through KC.

Might.  This storm is doing exactly what it should.

61 downtown and 61 in Columbia....Very Nice too bad we only have like 3 hours of daylight or something...lol

*****************

We are gaining daylight pretty quick now.  I've noticed because now we can see the sun setting during the 5pm news.  A couple of weeks ago it was generally setting right at 5pm.

Jeremy

All said...maybe between .15 and .35 of precip for the metro.  

**************

Not real impressed at the moment with QPF...this part of the 'drier' phase.

Jeremy

SREF is still not buying any snow.  I am giving only 30% chance for it.  And it does..it will melt quickly due to surface temps...

its 63 here!!!...I can't say I don't like it...but next weekend is looking good....I love that blue color on the temps!...lol

*****************

Plenty of winter ahead of us...but today is nice!

Jeremy

Warmer weather sounds fine to me soo all of the snow can melt and when the next accumlating snow comes we can have a nice fresh, hopfully deep new blanket of snow

*****************

Fresh I would like...deep snow...no:)

Jeremy

Wow, what a perfectly aweome day!  63 seems to be our high here in Paola.  All the nasty, dirty snow piles have melted, woohooooo!  I truly wish it could be like this all winter but I'll take a tease of Spring anytime!  

**************

Should be around 60 the next couple of days.  Then changes:)

Jeremy

"Plenty of winter ahead of us...but today is nice!

Jeremy"


depends on who you include in "us"...lol  maybe not for us harrisonvillians...

It was pretty nice out today!  I am still savoring that KU win in the OB. :)

Kristi

Ok, guess my weather station is reading correct. The high for Kingsville was 63-not too bad for January!! Glad I had a chance to get the lights down today.

What a wonderful day!  My dogs thoroughly enjoyed getting out for a nice long walk and I actually opened my windows.  And I am loving seeing no snow when I look out my windows!!!! *************** The snow vanished in a hurry today! I'd say by Monday afternoon even northern areas will have lost most/all of their snow pack. Jeremy

December Storm Systems:

December 8- Strongest
  "           1
  "          22
  "          15
  "          26
  "          28
  "          5- Weakest      

I think this is the right order?

Do you think that the surface temps will get to 32 or below if/when there is snow on Tues?  Or do you thimk the GFS has the right idea with the surface temps above freezing on Tues?

Thanks, Eswar

***************

Eswar,

Tuesday will likely see a midnight high temp. and then it will fall into the 30s which would be cold enough aloft and at the surface to support snow if the moisture is still around.

Jeremy

wow...all I have to say is what a storm!!! The reports coming from CA, is just insane, some of my family lives in CA, and they told us that they had to close the san raphael bridge in San Francisco bay area... insane, and now the SPC is saying that there might even be the possibility of severe weather on monday for parts of the viewing area, a possible spotter activation,... this is crazy beause it is happening in the middle of January!!! The main factors that I see for the severe weather development will depend on the frontal boundry and where it sets up on monday, I dont think we would have issues with wind shear lol... moisture is in place, but it is going to depend on when, and where the thunderstorms develop, and also if they form into a squall line and of course the bondry line/ layer.  Then the chance of snow wrapping around the system!!! WOW!!! Me personally I live in the southern viewing area, and we have not recived one snowfall event that even totaled 3 inches!!! LOL I would love to have a snow storm some time soon, I will worry about the severe weather during the spring,... but there is a possibility that I will have to deal with it on monday!!! LOL The latest computer model trends I think are trending to a warmer situation (Not good for us bloggers that want snow) LOL... but things could change, but you all have to admit that this storm is going to be a fun one to track, and experience... well it will be interesting at least.  I have not blogged for a long time... believe it or not I have been busy over winter break, I go back to college on the 14th so yeah I have actually been busy lol :P.  

What are your thoughts on the upcoming storm, the models are having a hard time handling it but, I guess they get better over time LOL... just wondering  about your thoughts... this is an interesting storm that is for sure!!! ... boy that was long winded ... oh well :P

***************

John,

Good to hear from you.  The storm out west has been very intense.  But watching the Seattle/Washington game today it didn't look too bad in the NW.  This storm really impacted the central and southern West Coast the most.  A piece of this storm will head our way later Monday.  Right now I think some rain in spots Monday night early Tuesday and then a chance of snow if the storm tracks just right.  The 18Z models continued the colder solution at the end of the storm so I am gaining cofidence of the possibility of snow on the backside sometime Tuesday. 

Jeremy

i will reserve judgement until the 00z comes out for both models.  the nam isnt that impressive at all.  the gfs gives us a decent burst of snow tuesday morning.  personally, i dont see much of a chance for thunderstorms unless if you are well to the east of kc, and farther south as well...just my take, and like i said, i will reserve judgement until the 00z models come out.  that is when the gfs usually starts getting a consistent grasp of the storm ~48-60 hours out.  

*************

PVT...I think the t-storm chance is from KC and points east with chances higher the farther east you travel.  I think Gary was mentioning this for a couple of days.  Hopefully the 00Z runs agree, but even the GFS doesn't look like a huge snow maker. 

Jeremy

The warm air was nice today. It got up to 62°, but it made our snow fort collapse. :(
http://weather.kskoellers.com/blog/snowfort1.jpg

Lets work on getting some more snow in here so we can repair it!! :)

David

I can not believe that we hit 64 here today in Harrisonville!
its spring....  8(

As I have saids many times an Andrew will agree with me, "its January leave these 60's and bring real winter on!"

but alas I will have to wait one week...just for any hope of cold temps....

**************

Brent,

You may see some snow on Tuesday, but the exact track of the storm and timing of the cold air is still a littly tricky.  Most of these 'big changes' in the weather recently have been delayed by 8-24 hours.  This would mean the cold air and snow chance may be pushed back into sometime Tuesday.  The 18Z GFS slowed the timing a bit.

Jeremy

Amen!! Brent.

lol andrew...

sounds good Jeremy...at least a good snow shower would be encouraging at this point!

does the new data look like maybe some accumulating snows up in northern MO?

*****************

I'll update the blog soon...but the NAM favors southern areas.  Then again the NAM has been too far south with virtually all the snow events this season 48 hours or more from the start of the event.  Don't put too much faith in the NAM right now...but it does give you some hope:)

Jeremy

It only reached 45 in St. Joe today. It was still a bit chilly. It has melted off some of the snow, but areas that are in the shade (like my front yard) still have several inches of snow. I've heard several comments about possiblity of snow up this way. Is that still holding true? It's currently down to 39, will we reach 50 tomorrow or not? I'm guessing it will be a wait and see kind of game.

******************

You should be close to 50.  If the clouds hold tomorrow maybe a little below...but if you see some sun then 50 is possible.  There is also a front working south during the day...which should pass thru St. Joe in the early afternoon.  I'll address the snow discussion in the new blog.

Jeremy

Jeremy,

What's you order from the Strongest Storm Systems to the weakest ones in December? I'm talking about precip wise, ULL Strength, trying to gather all this data based on the LRC to see if I can come up with my own Severe Weather Season Forecast.

**************

Andrew,

December 10-11 to me is the biggest storm last month.  Maybe not the most impressive at 500mb, but the surface moisture was incredible!

December 22 & 28 storms looked pretty good at 500mb and would rank them 2/3 in either order.

Then December 15 & 26 would be 4/5.  Not as impressive at 500mb, but they did produce some snow. 

That is a very quick glimpse and estimate for you.

Jeremy

thats great...finally it favors the southern areas!!...I can't wait for the new blog!

New blog out!