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Jeremy,

What's you order from the Strongest Storm Systems to the weakest ones in December? I'm talking about precip wise, ULL Strength, trying to gather all this data based on the LRC to see if I can come up with my own Severe Weather Season Forecast.

We have hope!....maybe?

 Hello Jeremy, which areas are most likely to see the change over to snow? The place's that see the change over to snow, will there likely be accumulations? Would the snow be on the tail end of the storm?

oops, never mind! posted to soon! of coures..

You other bloggers have any order of storms?

Here's what Jeremy said, who agrees?

"Andrew,

December 10-11 to me is the biggest storm last month.  Maybe not the most impressive at 500mb, but the surface moisture was incredible!

December 22 & 28 storms looked pretty good at 500mb and would rank them 2/3 in either order.

Then December 15 & 26 would be 4/5.  Not as impressive at 500mb, but they did produce some snow.

That is a very quick glimpse and estimate for you.

Jeremy"

...now thats a poof...

00Z GFS......A real yawner..

No joke on 00z.....BORING

Is there a chance of seeing possibly a couple strong storms pop up...If so where do you think the most likley spot would be?

*************

Well southeast of KC.  Likely outside the viewing area.

Jeremy

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*****************

Andrew,

I won't delete this...but we cannont use the blog to advertise for free(even if it is weather related gear).  There are paid sponsors on our website.  Hopefully you understand.

Jeremy

oops sorry!!

Can't say this storm really went poof at all.  It was never really there.  Sure the models painted a nice picture..but if you subscribe to the LRC or any surface trending...this really wasn't much to write home about.

It is really hard to stick to the LRC or surface trending when models do this...but in the end...its worth it.

Consider the past 3 cycles for this storm date.  Zilch. I will be suprised if KMCI records anything above .10 inches.  

If anything the only thing close would have matched the 10th-12th..and that is a loose match yielding very little.

Huh.

***********

This is the 'dry' part of the cycle.  In November there were a few times that fronts just missed KC and produced rain to the southeast.  Looks like a majority of the precip. misses east this time.

Jeremy

pvt_murphy,

No poof here as there was never a really consistent signal for any snow whatsoever.  Some fleeting signals by an occasional model run or two, but thats why its never good to copy exactly what the model says.  

Now maybe it will show up again today, who knows, but models cannot be trusted right now.

***************

The 6Z GFS brings the snow back...That's why for now we are keeping the precip. chance at 60% with rain and snow possible. 

Jeremy

Jeremy:

Good warm morning to the weather team!!! Currently under clear skies with a very warm temp. of 50 degrees!!!

A few random observations with a few of them going out on a major limb for me especially considering my very limited knowledge-I just hope the limb doesn't break LOL!!!

1. On the 12Z surface charts this morning, you can see the weak front has cleared Manhattan, Kansas as they are currently at 35 degrees-it appears the front is just to the NW of Topeka but it looks like it is hitting a brick wall. Not much of "front" but you know, it doesn't take much to amuse me LOL!! I love looking at the surface charts this time of year and watching the progression of fronts.

2. For the past 24 hours on satelite it has appeared that the mountains really are doing a number on the Tuesday storm and they pretty much robbed it of most of its energy. It appeears, latest 6Z GFS operational run aside, that it comes out very weak but then begins to reorganize over the top of us-it never becomes really strong per se but it does appear to gain some strength as it moves east. May be one of those deals where one is not sure absolutely until you see it on satelite. I do think maybey (big limb here) it could get a bit more energized if that front does hold together-having some 60's in southern Missouri and 30's to the NW may be a good enough temperature gradient to kind of inject some sizzle into it. All that being said, if I am seeing the projections correctly, I think it is fascinating that the 500 vort is falling into the same place the others have this season-This has been mentioned in yesterday's blog but fascinating for sure to see that long wave trough and how it fits with the LRC!!!!

3. For me personally, something I am kind of watching is the clipper type system on Thursday-that looks to really bring down a bigger push of cold air that is more lasting in its affects. I am interested because by my score keeping at home this coincides with the stronger cold front we had come through around 11-21 where we went from the lower 70's into the lower 40's to upper 30's in a 24 hour period. This also to me was the beginnings of the more active period-I have always thought that our weather got interesting around Thanksgiving and it appears that we are in the process of seeing the beginnings again. Do I hear the limb cracking here??? If a weather hobbyist falls off of a limb and nobody hears it, does it make a sound???

Just a few random thoughts-for me it will be fun to follow that front today weak though it is-12Z data seems to show it beginning to kind of wash out but who knows. I am a believer in the LRC for sure/whole heartedly and to my little hobbyist mind it looks like things are beginning to pop. By the way, Eureka in Nunavut is currently at -60 degrees-that is cold even for them so there is some cold air beginning to build in Nunavut and the NWT.

Hopefully the limb won't break to badly LOL!!!! I hope everybody got to enjoy the day yesterday and even today will be fantastic (unless that weak front pulls a trick!!!)-enjoy it!!!! Have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good to hear from you.  The 'front' is pretty weak today and I'm not sure if it ever clears the entire area.  Almost more of a trough.  In KC it may pass through late today and then winds will go variable.  But a record high is within reach today!  I'll take record highs in January anytime over a record low!  When I moved here over a year ago a friend of mine from college that is a native of Kansas City told me that there is always at least one day each January where you can enjoy a 'cold beverage' outside.  And I would say yesterday and also today would qualify for that!

The Tuesday forecast is a bit frustrating at the moment.  But I do think a change to snow is very possible.  Hopefully the waters clear a bit by later today.

Enjoy your day and the weather...because we know this isn't going to last the entire month:) 

Jeremy

 

hmm....will it snow or not?...I think if theres any likelyhood of it snowing somewhere in the metro it will be extreme north Kansas city where the temps are cold enough....I think with this storm, its not a matter of where the heaviest precip tracks, but how far the cold air sinks...it may be all rain to the south. ************ Brent, I wouldn't count on that. The 0C 850 line passes well south of the area on Tuesday. The best chance of a quicker changeover is areas north of KC, but snow can't be ruled out to the south. The 12Z GFS continues to produce snow on Tuesday. Jeremy

I have a hard time believeing that its 60 degrees outside  in the shade!!!

I'm going outside to see.......

yes, its 60 outside.....man its nice.... *********** Lows were in the 40s and 50s overnight. Climbing to 60 won't take much in most areas. Jeremy

zeus,

i was talking about the storm altogether.  the point is moot now as the storm is 'back' on the models again. ************** PVT...outside of a few odd runs the snow has been in the GFS most of the time. That is why we have never pulled the snow chance from the forecast. Jeremy

Jeremy or anyone else are you buying this latest GFS run showing 54 hours out, because that looks like a mess for someone?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_054m.gif *************** This would be a rain to wet snow and I think the GFS is trending in the right direction. Looks like a change to snow will occur as we have had in the forecast the entire time. Jeremy

Well... the snow has taken a massive beating and I think it was just declared a "knock out", sure there are some areas left but it really has been decimated my yard is almost totally snow free, exposing the tangle of twigs that litter it from the ice storm, I might have to "rake twigs".  As for this next storm, well we will see, oh and yesterday we did have a nice burst of warm air advection fog for a bit.

62 in Harrisonville clouds are rolling in,.

Brent

Well the 12Z GFS and NAM are far more interesting solutions than the 00Z was.  It seems to indicate accumulating snow close to the metro.  Will be interesting to watch through the next day or two....(Hopefully..)


Matt.

We slept with the bedroom window open all night; it's amazing we were able to do that in January!

Flip Flop again........Hey do you think the models will become more in line when the system is sampled by the on shore networks rather than the ones out in the pacific they say that help the models along or is it considered to be on shore already? **************** I'm sure that will help. But I'm confident of some rain changing to snow in areas on Tuesday. The timing is bad for the fact of during the day(peak heating) and surface temps will be above freezing in most/all areas. Jeremy

I know you are still trying to figure out the Monday/Tuesday storm, but what is it looking like for Friday - Sunday?  I'm sure I'll ask this question again in a few days, but just looking for a preliminary forcast : )

is the front coming further south I saw temps drop a bit @ KCI and Dwtn ?

wow the winds are howling from the south....I would estimate at least 30 mph sustained winds.,.....thats on the low side...its really really windy... we have no wind block from the south , here

Brent: what your temp...ur in Harrisonville right, im in south Kansas city almost martin city and only 3 miles north of cass county I have 59.4 here but KCI now has 51 and dwtn tumbled to 56 they were 58..something strange, but winds remain SW even up in Iowa so I guess that the boundary I have winds due south but kci SW and st joe and there at 41. ************** I think the SW surface wind is affecting areas from KCI and points north. The SW wind is blowing off areas that may have a little snow left on the ground and if not the ground temp is colder. Yesterday's south wind was blowing off bare ground that has been that way for days. Odd how that little wind change drop temps that quick! Jeremy

In Lenexa right now it is 55, up from 53 a little while ago. Winds are from the southwest between 5 and 10 mph.

i'm at 60.6 in Grain Valley

its back down into the 40's again here at the fort.  i am surprised that we hit our max temps so early in the day today.  i wasnt surprised at the outcome, as i somewhat knew that yesterday would be the warmest day(during the day)...however, we did have the most snowmelt overnight last night.  we still have about 30% coverage, although we still have huge piles in and around the area.  

now that the gfs is in the 'window', if the 18z corresponds to the previous runs, i will be pretty confident in some accumulating snow for the area.  

jeremy, i am aware about whats been happening with the gfs, i was just responding to zeus' comment as apparently he thought i was just talking about the snow potential.  

however, it seems as though the low wants to head south of us, as they have been doing all winter.  if the low goes south, our snow chances head way up compared to it going north!

murph *********** I agree with the low position correlating to snow chances. 2 things that concern me even if the track is perfect. The GFS timing is during the day(peak heating) and also the surface temps will have to be overcome. If it does change to snow which I think it will in areas. The snow may take some time to accumulate if it does at all. At least with surface temps near or above freezing the roads should be okay. I think we had a snow like this a few weeks ago? Jeremy

What are the chances of travel out of KCI  at 7am Tue morning beging a problem? Should I start making other plans? ************ At the moment I think you would be fine. Surface temps will likely be above freezing. Jeremy

In Kingsville our temp was at 68.2 now down to 67.5, but it still feels great!! Window's are wide open!! :) ************* Thanks for the report. Hard to pick one temp. for the area today:) Jeremy

59.5 degrees here in Olathe. :( I can't wait for more snow, 2-3 FT Please!!

Jeremy,

Thanks for you ratings, that helps to see when there will probably be a Big Severe Weather outbreak in the spring. Now, do you think we will have another late April Freeze? *************** Andrew, It feels good here in Olathe! In regards to the storm ratings I don't think each will produce severe weather, but in the spring the chance may be with the biggest and smallest of storms. I think spring will be quite active this year. Especially compared to last year. Jeremy

someone aksed what the temp was here......its easily 64, and partly sunny...strong south winds still blowing

Brent

im beginning to hope for more severe weather than snow. It definetly looks more favorable.

Well the snow 65 percent gone, except for piles....will more come seems to be the question?  The ground is still cold at two inches frost and 27 degrees up here.  With clouds despite 50 or so we can accum on at least the grassy areas Monday nite and Tues morn....but the storm will need to bring its own cold air.

NWS is saying isolated TSTORM will that translate to convective snow Mon nite isolated heavy bursts ?? Temp 42.7 wind CM

It is a chilly 43 in St. Joseph. Sun peaks out every now and then, and windy which makes it feel cooler outside. ************* Just north of KCI to St. Joe is in the 40s. The SW wind and cold ground along with clouds are playing a big role today. Thanks for the report. Jeremy

TeacherInStJoe windy where you are I live down in between two bluffs and the wind is almost calm; you must be on a hilltop.

I do live on a hill, wind comes and goes.

Jeremy. With this system repeting its self. does that mean that the Dec ice storm could have an effect on tornado Production in the KC area. Basicallly will we see more tornados due to this active pattern or about the same.

Zach

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Zach,

With an active pattern heading into spring we should have more opportunities at seeing severe weather.  But tornadoes are a microscale event and the LRC or any type of pattern is based at the synoptic or large scale level.  Just because we have more storms doesn't equal more tornado activity.  But I do believe that more storm activity will at least give us a higher chance at seeing severe weather this spring compared to last.

Jeremy 

jeremy,

take this for what its worth, but if you ask me...this upcoming storm reminds me of the thanksgiving storm we had...which was actually the day after.  started as light rain, but eventually changed over to snow before it tapered off.  kci ended up with .2", officially i believe.  we ended up with .5" here at the fort with that one.  the major difference i see with this event is that the ground temps are considerably colder this time around.  as a previous blogger stated, even though we are around 50...the ground is still frozen-atleast here.  secondly, the gfs wants to bring most of the moisture in after the supposed changeover would occur.  that being said, i think that this will be remembered mostly as a snow event, but probably around .5" or less...

how certain are you that this a ~54 day cycle, jeremy? looking at temp profiles, as well as the potential storm in a couple days...along with the end of the week one, strongly resemble what was occuring about 46 days ago.  i will send you a 'report' i did on the lrc that explains my predictions for this year via PM.  i just looked at it for the first time since submitting it, and it has been uncanny so far! it has been 1 day early for a couple events.  i dont think the cycle is 41 days, but im starting to think its actually between your 54 and my 41....maybe around 46?.  i have sent it to you jeremy.

murph

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Murph,

I'll check it out.  Make sure to email it to Gary too.  His inbox on the blog is pretty full:)

I know 54 days ago in KC it was 70.  The LRC doesn't apply to the surface in Gary's definition.  But generally when the storm track in the sam longwave position the surface influence is pretty close.  70 degrees 54 days ago was warm...and 50s and 60s across the area today is considered warm for January.  Also, this past week when it was 5 degrees for a low, 54 days previous that it was one of the first hard freezes in KC.  Just wanted to note some of the surface features I noticed with the recent cold snap and also mild air this past weekend in relation to a cycle.

Jeremy 

PVT the models are the same way with that storm as they are with this one...you are right on the money.

My thermometer says 65*(Sibley),  is it broke?  The sun isn't even realy shining right now!  It was earlier and the entire family enjoyed lunch outside today.  Audrey

Oh yeah, forgot to mention the lady bugs are moving.  Sorry about the bug obsession.

Bulldog, I don't think your thermometer's broke. My weather station say's 67.9 down in Kingsville and it's partly cloudy out. Curious to see what Brent's say's.

61.3 F in Olathe

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