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This is indeed the ole "splitter" system...Mark my words, I believe that the southern stream will become stronger than the northern, something that the models always have a heck of a time handling.  Would not be surprised to continue to see an intensification of the southern stream...this, of course would mean a more wintery solution.  Just look back at the storm on the 22nd of December!!! Although the one this Tuesday should be weaker, it is the same type of "splitter" system, and models had difficulties with that one too!!!  What are your thoughts Jeremy?

jeremy,

from the last blog...i will send it to gary as well, although i have never gotten a response from him...

looking back...46 days ago it was 73 degrees, and we were fresh off one of the first hard freezes, we were also a day away from an event(possibly similar to tomorrows).

i see correlations for both 54 and 41 days...but i also see loopholes in both.

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I think once this month is over the cycle and number of days should be clear.  If you sent Gary the email or PM when he was on vacation it probably got lost in the mix since he gets lots of emails everyday.  Maybe I'll forward it to him too.

Jeremy

I just can't believe this...its 67.8 here!!!!!
and sunny....wow!!!!

i dont send many emails, but the couple i have sent before have never been acknowledged.  however, i can understand how swamped his email can get...not complaining, but thats why i come to you if i want answers. :)

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Murph,

I do get hundreds of emails a day.  So, just resend me an email if you haven't heard from me in a couple of days.  Sometimes they get buried 1,000 deep down into my in box.  I am sorry if I didn't get back to you in the past.  The best time to send me one is around 4 PM.  This is when I am sitting there answering emails.

Gary

no worries

We have finally hit 60 now in Lenexa. The winds have died down now too. The average for the last 10 minutes has been around 2 mph. It sure feels nice out there, but I can't wait for winter weather to make a return.  

David

68!

hey gary what about more snow coming into play around mid week or late on friday

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Mag...make sure you know the difference between our forecast and others.  We love that everyone gets involved and make forecasts...but we just don't want to confuse ours with others.  Anyways, a little wave could give us some snow on Thursday, then another chance by Sunday.  Sunday at the moment looks light.  Check back to Gary Lezak's 15-45 day forecast.  That should help with stuff about 10 days out.

Jeremy

Brent, where did you hear possible snow from this storm first?

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Parts of the viewing area will not see snow from this.  Maybe more areas don't see snow than actually do. 

Jeremy

Mag, I wouldn't expect anything significant until about the 23rd....

Here in SW Topeka we lost all of our remaining snow cover overnight.  At my house today the temperature has peaked (so far) at 54F.  The spring fever must have hit hard for you guys getting close to 70F!

Mike

61.5 now in Olathe!

Gary B mentioned snow almost 10 days ago I (think)
he also kept the snow totals opn the uprise untill about a week ago, when he was forecasting a good 4 to 6.....he has since dropped his expectations to 1 to 2 inches at most in SOME areas....its about 24 hours away from the event people....if theres going to be snow, lets predict how much will fall...if not...then we expect rain...

so yes Gary did talk about snow much earlier than anyone else...but he was not right on the amounts...and it really hasn't even rained yet....

69 in Harrisonville...will it hit 70!!!!?

Brent

Jeremy:

I just returned from a birthday party and took a look at the 21Z surface observations and was already to Blog and say awesome job on calling the temps. and the front position today but the new blog already covered it!!! Anyway, kudos to you on the call with the temps. today as they were tricky!!! I am currently at 55 but notice that Concordia, Kansas is at 42-not a front to be confused with the "power bands" of the 70's and 80's (just a little nastalgia LOL) but if had drifted further south today would have made about a 10 degree difference in the temps. Fun stuff to watch-as I said, not much to amuse me LOL

Again, Jeremy, great call today on the position and location of the front-you nailed it!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I hope the party was enjoyable.  The forecast today was/is tough.  I have to put a number down but even the metro temps had a huge range this afternoon.  Last night I went 61 today for KC.  I'm pretty happy with how that turned out.

I thought mid 60s were possible to the SE, but some areas hit 70!  What a great day.  And once again about 10 degrees cooler for St. Joe compared to KC.  The wide range of temps will continue on Monday.

Jeremy 

I am living in a different world it is 45.4 at 1550 hrs in st joe sno nowmostly gone except the piles.

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Still 10 degrees above average:)  Probably a repeat tomorrow with your temps being about 10 degrees cooler than KC.  You'll also have some early and late day rain showers.

Jeremy

Ahh-so close to 70. Kingsville topped out at 68.6. Feels great to be outside in short sleeve shirts and windows open, now if I could just have one more day like this......

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You should see highs in the 60s on Monday.  Close enough?

Jeremy

Jeremy,
The 18Z GFS seems to take the potential snow to the north and west,through areas that have been seeing the most snow this season. But the NAM takes it much closer to the city. What is your thinking about this?

David

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David,

I will likely stick with forecasting snow for the favored locations so far this season.  The storms really like this storm track to the east/southeast of KC.  As of now the best chance of snow accumulation would be somewhere near KC to the MO/IA/NE/KS borders.  Temps are marginal and this would be a wet snow and likely accumulate on grassy areas.

The NAM has been too far south with virtually every snow chance this season.

Jeremy

I say go with the Nam!

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The NAM would help your cause, but I think at the moment I'll favor the same areas that have seen the most snow this winter.

Jeremy

64 in Grain Valley! I'm sure glad this warm day was on the weekend and not on flippin monday when we are back at work!!!

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'We'?  My days off are Monday-Wednesday...don't forget about me:)  My daughters are hoping for another wagon ride outside before winter returns.

Jeremy

dang it.......man, no words can express my dissatisfaction with this winter....

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Until it actually happens keep thinking positive:)

Jeremy

i thank you jeremy and yes i did see it on the other station (whoops) and I might have to travel to omaha on wed and will drive back on fri , I wish 41 would have a weekend morning news cast , but than agian you guys need the time off also looking forward to the weather cast tonight ,and you guys by far outscore the others ,thank-you once agian. mike mag

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Mike,

We are starting a weekend morning newscast sometime in February!  It will be on Saturday and Sunday mornings from 8-9am!  Our new midday show begins a week from Monday and is on from 11a-Noon Monday-Friday.  Now there will be no reason to look at other forecasts:)

Jeremy

"Until it actually happens keep thinking positive:)

Jeremy"

good philosophy....untill I'm dissapointed once again by nothing...or a dusting........

..actually...at this point a dusting would seem like a major snowstorm

we hit 69 today Jeremy

Brent

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Now I'm jealous of your weather Brent!

Jeremy

wow the new newscast will be awesome!...will weather be on at 11:15 on the weekdays!?..

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Weather will be on at least twice during the show.  Not sure what times yet.

Jeremy

Actually even I will admit that its really nice outside....
If I can't have snow...I might as well have 70 degree temps...

I can't wait for a great sunset...I just got a new camera that has special functions for taking pictures of sunsets and snow....so all the pictures I will be sending you guys now should be much clearer and better......if we ever get some snow down here....  8'(

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In the next active cycle I don't see how you could get missed by 4 or more possible storms.

Jeremy

ok well if you find out the times later on please post them...because I don't have time to watch the whole newscast...I turn the TV on for the weather and turn it off before sports comes on...lol

I'm getting into somewhat of a negative cycle here...although its hard to aviod....I need to focus on something else....LOL...I have posted 4 times in a row...

when does the new data on the storm come out?
and only 45 minutes till the new blog comes out!

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Brent,

I should have the blog done by 7pm.  Usually I take a break to eat and then dive into work stuff again.  The next batch of new data comes in between 8-10pm.

Jeremy 

Jeremy. With the cycle that keeps repeating and the significant snow where suppose to get later on this winter, Do u think that this will have a Major Effect with Severe weather and Tornado Production.

Zach

Yes!! Finally a weekend morning show! Been waiting forever on that.

Jeremy, do you really think the southern parts of the viewing area will have a better shot of some snow the next go around-this "no snow" cycle is getting a little old.

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The weekend morning show will be a good time.  Now you don't have to settle for a second rate forecast;)

As Gary mentioned in his long range forecast this week we would be surprised if one of the storms in the active part of the cycle doesn't hit southern areas.  Your turn is coming...at some point.

Jeremy

Brent, do you ever say anything positive? Everytime you write anything, it is always something negative about why it has not snowed in your area and if it will. Geez, it does get old seeing the same thing come from you 24/7. You really need to get over the weather not favoring you and what you want! Come on, be positive, have fun, and learn from others on here! Im not talkin smack on ya either, it just get's old.

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Everyone play nice...the weather was great this weekend and let's continue a good weather discussion:)

Jeremy

Kellyann...I commended myself for that....I don't need you pointing it out also.

where do you live anyway in St joseph?

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ok...I let each of you have a say...now we are done.

Jeremy

Brent, I do not live in St Joseph, I used to live near there but moved to Belton last March.

well took down the christmas decorations down today was great weather to do that the snow for the most part has melted in leavenworth, we sat here in the 50's I will take that any day in january now I am gearing up for some more active weather,have a good rest of the day Jeremy and bloggers.

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I saw a few others taking down lights today too.  A great weekend and hopefully everyone had a chance to enjoy some time outside.

Jeremy

thanks Jeremy....

Dang it I missed the weather!.....man how did I do that?....I'm so preoccupied

can someone give me a summary please?

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Read the new blog in about an hour.

Jeremy

We...um... haven't even picked up and hauled off the tree branches in our yard from the ice.  oops.  Maybe this evening... but I guess that would be right now huh???  

awww I have to wait!?.....well the new 7 day will hold me over...it looks quite good...snow 3 times maybe! and 30's most of the week!..yay...it looks too warm for snow on tuesday....

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That's why it is marginal.  Surface temps are pretty warm...I'll discuss more coming up.  I better get started...

Jeremy



Brent

I don't know if theres a nice way to say this....but is it done yet?
lol

Cant wait..another exiting week!!!