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Here's a quick update to close the weekend. Still looks like parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri stand the best chance of seeing snow on Tuesday morning. During the news I mentioned areas like St. Joe, Maryville, Hiawatha, Topeka, and Atchison could see 1-2" on grassy surfaces. This isn't set in stone since temps are still marginal and a 1 or 2 degree change either way could mean a mix or even rain. But right now I am confident that if accumulating snow occurs it would favor the same areas as other storms this season. Gary will have the updates and answer your questions in the morning.
Here are the start dates for our new NBC Action News shows!
Midday show starts January 14. Airs Monday-Friday 11am to Noon
Weekend mornings start January 26. Airs Saturday & Sunday mornings 8-9am
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Spring was in the air this past weekend across the region as high temperatures were around 60 degrees both Saturday and Sunday in Kansas City. The warm temperatures helped to eliminate the snow pack across much of the viewing area and also cure many people of 'cabin fever'. Numerous records fell across the state of Missouri today and even one will likely fall in Kansas City. The low temperature as of 7pm in Kansas City has been 45 degrees. As long as the temperature does not drop below 40 degrees by midnight, this will go down as the warmest low temperature on record for January 6. The current record is 40 degrees set in 1900, 1921, & 1931.
Here is a list of record highs that were tied or broken across the region on Sunday.
Columbia, MO: 72 (72 1907)
Springfield, MO: 71 (70 1907)
Joplin, MO: 74 (60 1967)
Rolla, MO: 71 (59 1965)
St. Louis, MO: 73 (67 1907)
Temperatures from Kansas City and areas north are retreating back into the 40s right now as a cold front has pushed into the region. This front will stall out tonight and be the focal point for a few showers by morning. The best chance of seeing morning rain showers will be around Kansas City and points north. The front then lifts north as a surface low moves north and west of the area. This will allow south to southwest winds to crank up again and give us highs in the 50s to 60s. The 60s will mainly be south of KC. Once again I think northern locations will stay about 10 degrees colder...probably 40s to maybe 50s. Even though temperatures will be colder to the north any precipitation that falls on Monday will stay in the form of rain.
Another cold front will enter the region later Monday and this is the front that finally brings our mild weather to an end. The front will also produce more showers and a chance of thunderstorms(likely southeast of KC). To recap Monday...a few showers early....temps in the 50s to around 60...then late day showers with a stronger cold front.
Monday night into Tuesday a second surface low moves to our southeast and also a vort max at 500mb will move across the area. This area of lift will produce one last area of precipitation with this system. Some areas will likely change over to snow by Tuesday morning, but here are the concerns. Surface temperatures above 32 degrees. Ground temperatures warmed over the weekend. Snow falling during the day. All of these will combine to likely limit any snow accumulation to grassy surfaces. The best chance of seeing snow is likely many of the same areas that have received the bulk of the snow this winter. That includes St. Joseph, Maryville, and maybe some flakes in Kansas City.
Here is a look at the 500mb vort that will swing thru early Tuesday.
Now look at the 850mb chart from the 18Z GFS. The freezing line at this level is still over central Kansas early Tuesday morning.
While the lift will likely be around the area...we are lacking a good push of cold air for a quick change to snow. As a result, I think some areas will see snow, but mainly north of Kansas City and accumulations in those areas should stay on grassy surfaces if it happens. Those are the current trends and if something changes after the 00Z models come out I will update the blog. Otherwise Gary will be blogging early tomorrow morning with his thoughts.
I also wanted to mention to everyone in case you missed it in the comments section. NBC Action New is starting a midday newscast that will air from 11am to Noon weekdays. The show will debut January 14, 2008. This is great news for viewers, because now you won't have to wait to get the latest model information from the 'other shows' that air at Noon. We will be the first to deliver the 'new data' each and everyday! Also coming in the near future, a weekend morning show that will air for 1 hour each weekend morning. I'll have more details on that in the near future.
I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend and get ready...the pattern is going to get colder and more exciting soon!
Jeremy