NBC Action Communities

Gary, I have been watching your forecast for the past several years.  I would watch everybody and found that you were by far the best!  Recently, I have discovered "the Blog"!  Wow, this has been the most useful weather tool I have seen.  The paid telephone weather forcast are a joke compared to the information that I get here.  My family owns a lawn and landscape buisness so we do snow removal, and we use the blog to make decisions on purchases of salt and sand, icemelt, and it is also a huge help as to when we need send our crews out to begin work.  I also read the comments of the other bloggers to see what is happening in other parts of the city to know what actions I might need to take, eventhough it isn't doing anything at my house.  That sure beats calling Quick Trip across town and asking what is happening in their parking lot!  The information here is priceless and I just wanted to let you know how grateful I am for you, your dedication, and enthusiasm for the weather.  That goes for the entire team as well.  You have built an incredible team. Have a great day, and I hope to see that snow vest very soon!!
Mike

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Mike,

Thank you so much.  As you know weather is my passion, yes likely an understatement.  This blog is what I have been doing on paper in my weather calendars since 1978.  When I learned about blogging three years ago it just hit me like, WOW!  This is me.  I just hope we don't give the competition too much information.

Gary

Gary, what a change.  I went to bed last night around 10:30 and it was 42 degrees.  Then I wake up this morning and it is 62.  A 20 degree warmup overnight - AMAZING!!!

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Yes, it is yet another dramatic warm front. 

Gary

Do you think there will be much precip with the next storm?

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It is too early to tell on Thursday nights storm.  This is the one that has the moisture available though.  Some areas will likely get more than one inch of rain tonight, while others only get a few hundreths.  We will be trying to figure this out on our weathercasts tonight.

Gary

I took a chance with a short sleave shirt this morning, and wow, how unbelievable it felt out there.  Over 60 degrees in O.P.

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You did the right thing.  The front won't move back through until sometime tonight.

Gary

Is it really May and I just slept in a little too long?  This is crazy; walk outside to warm up the car and that was a waste of time.  I'm honestly sad to see this warm air leave us, but it is January, so bring on the snow!

This is OT for weather, but when is NBC Action News going to a full HD signal, so you don't have the blue bars on the sides of the picture?  Anyway I had someone telling me about "another stations" newscast being in HD and therefore it was better, just due to the HD, blah, blah, they had no idea what they were talking, etc.  Anyway, it got me to thinking and I figured this is the best place to ask.  Gary's snow vest in HD?

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We will be completely HD sometime this year.  I don't know the exact date yet.

Gary

Yikes!  We are leaving to drive to a wedding in South Carolina on Thursday!  I hope there is not going to be bad weather driving down or back on Sunday!  I don't like to see the chance of a storm on Thursday!

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I think you will be just fine.  It is looking like the best chance is later Thursday or Thursday night.

Gary

Gary,

Just a question about the LRC:  I know you've shared your theory and research with meteorologists from across the country, but are there any areas of the country where the LRC is "less" applicable? (eg. areas with bodies of water or mountain ranges which also impact the weather, etc.)  Or do the trough patterns and number of days per cycle apply everywhere, and those other land or water bodies just affect how the LRC "looks" in a particular area?

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Great question!  Since it is the entire pattern across the Northern Hemisphere that is cycling, it would apply to any spot.  It will work for Los Angeles, Seattle, Buffulo, Edmonton, Montreal, Miami, etc.

Gary
 

Awesome, HD sometime this year!  Please tell your techs to have it done by tornado season so we can see your radar in perfectly clear HD.

When might we see the warm up in St. Joseph. It is still currently only 37 outside with a very thick cloud cover. There were even a few sprinkles this morning. Is it possible for the front to not make it past St. Joe?

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The only chance of it getting there will be during the next three or four hours.  Good luck!  The front will start sagging south afternoon.

Gary

I kept checking my thermometer this morning because I just wasn't sure that the 61 degrees it was reading was right.  This weather has been awesome!  I've had the furnace off and the windows open for the past two days.  I'm going to enjoy it while I can!  :)

LandscaperMike,
the weather team also has a telephone forecast. Just thought I'd tell you. But the blog is so much better. If the competition ever took their forecast from here and made it therer own, it just proves that the are jealous of a team that's been most accurate for 5 years, and they've been 2nd,3rd, or 4th.

On to weather, for a snowlover, I was acctually happy when all of my snow melted and it was warmer for a while. I'll enjoy it while it lasts.

Gary I just remembered I have to drive to Saint Lukes by the Plaza for a CPR/AED class in the morning.  Am I correct in assuming IF any snow is falling it won't stick to the roads or bridges for the Tuesday morning commute?  Obviously, I'll allow extra time for those "high strung" drivers who freak out on the road after seeing a couple snow flakes.

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There is absolutely no chance of snow for the morning commute.  If we get any at all it will be later, and it is iffy.

Gary

Even though the winds were blowing out of the WSW yesterday and the temperatures were warmer, the wind still felt pretty cool.  More like a windy fall day than a spring day.  What will be the rate of temperature change when it starts to drop?  20-30 degrees in 6 hours?

GARY ARE  YOU GAING MORE CONFIDENT OR LESS ON THE WORST PART OF WINTER BEING  AHEAD OF US AND IS THERE ANY STORMS OF LARGE PROPOTION SHOWING UP YET TO SUPPORT IT THANKS

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Everything is right on schedule.  We are cycling through this pattern so confidence is very high that we will get that big series of storm systems within weeks.

Gary

I was doing some calculations and if they pattern is at about 54 days then that means all the storms we saw on Fridays and Saturdays will now be more Monday's and Tuesday's?? Is that sound about right I was looking back over the blog to get dates and stuff.

Spring Forecast #1.1  
Updated January 07,2008 10:06am

**3-4 Major Severe Weather Outbreaks**
**5-7 Minor Severe Weather Outbreaks**

A Late Freeze around April 20th ( Thanks Scott!)

Above Average Precipitation

Below Average to Average Temperatures (during the warm cycle a few days could be above average.)

**Major Severe Weather Outbreak possible dates:

March 27,2008
April   14,2008
May    20,2008
June   07,2008    

The minor ones would be the smaller storms in between the big ones, and small storm systems that pass during the dry cycle. Ex, like January 8,2008 might  equal a March 2,2008 minor outbreak.

**This just using some of the data I know about the LRC, and using Jeremy's ratings of the storm systems. I will be changing this alot as we get close to the spring time.**

Gary,


Can you get the date when you go HD? Please!

Gary,
Considering that the cycle theory is so groundbreaking, and you have shared with us that "when you get time" etc. you want to explore it more fully, why doesn't your station make the investment and hire the meteorological assistance to get the research done?  If the theory is true then it would be a leading candidate for a Nobel award in science.  Wouldn't that be valuable enough for the Station or the owners of the station to invest in? The theory offers so much potential for drought forecast etc that would help so many people, such as sub-Saharan Africa, US Farmers etc.

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There is no doubt that there are a lot of benefits to using the LRC.  We are now using it, showing it, and researching the LRC.  The station barely understands that I even have a theory and how it works or what it is.

Gary

Gary, there was a brief shower at I435 & Metcalf a moment ago.  I looked at the radar and there appeared to be a line of showers.  The front is too far away. What could be causing that echo.  I notice the wind isn't hell bent for election out of the south anymore.

Gary-
This warm weather has been a welcome break from what we had in December, even if it is short lived.
I noticed over the weekend that there was an unusual amount of flocks of geese flying every which direction. In the past couple of years, I have not noticed many geese flying anywhere at all during or before winter set in. But this weekend, flocks of geese were flying every where. They say animals can sense when storms are coming. Is there something big about to happen in the near future that they sense that is sending them into such a frenzy?
Also, I was curious as to what makes snow it's white color.

Susy

Susy,
  You must have children... Cute question!

Gary,

I'm with Dwight above when he says the LRC is ground-breaking.  I'm also a bit skepical.  Not sure your theory puts enough emphasis on the "black swan" ( large-impact hard-to-predict rare events) see N. Talib.   The term black swan comes from the ancient Western conception that all swans were white. In that context, a black swan was a metaphor for something that could not exist. The 17th Century discovery of black swans in Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that the perceived impossibility actually came to pass.  Your vocation (weather) is hard to predict -- uncertainty compounds as you forcast further into the future.  Similar to my vocation (miltary) where we are dealing with complex human beings, organizations and nations.  Still the LRC as a pattern and system seems to be consistent even though it is complex.   I'm facinated with your work, I'll stay tuned....beware of the black swan.  M

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M,

We are always aware of the  "black swan", as you call it.  Even though I believe the LRC to be a major discovery in meteorology, it is a long way from being excepted out of our little circle.  And, until we prove that it exists it will be ours to use.  It is providing us with a huge forecasting advantage.  It isn't the reason we are the most accurate though.  But, it helps in many ways.  It is also frustrating as well. 

I will keep presenting evidence. And, just like when I was studying in college at the University of Oklahoma, sometimes it just clicks.  As our research continues and we see the LRC defined uniquely each year, maybe someday soon it will click.  Click with me, a researcher, or one of you.  But, putting it out there for everyone to see is the best way to advance this possibility.  Does this make sense?

Gary

Peer review and putting it out there makes great sense to me.  Thanks,  M

Gary you're a pioneer in your field by going in a direction no one else is going, because they're not willing to believe there's a different way of weather forecasting, without some type of scientific research.  Nothing groundbreaking is ever uncovered without someone willing to go against conventional held beliefs.  The LRC theory is amazing and it's mind blowing to see it really working.  I look forward to the future when you have more data and evidence to support this.  Hey at least you have a large group of people listening to you on hear and no one believing you.

I have a strange question.  I was given a weather station for Christmas.  The barometer currently reads 28.80".  This is quite a bit lower than what I see with the NWS as well as what I see on TV (I live in Holden, MO).  I also have an unrelated barometer in my house that also reads approximately 28.80".

Can anyone explain this??

Thanks

Susy,

This is from "How Stuff Works" on what makes snow its white color:

Snow is a whole bunch of individual ice crystals arranged together. When a light photon enters a layer of snow, it goes through an ice crystal on the top, which changes its direction slightly and sends it on to a new ice crystal, which does the same thing. Basically, all the crystals bounce the light all around so that it comes right back out of the snow pile. It does the same thing to all the different light frequencies, so all colors of light are bounced back out. The "color" of all the frequencies in the visible spectrum combined in equal measure is white, so this is the color we see in snow, while it is not the color we see in the individual ice crystals that form snow.

It is now 67 degrees in Lee's Summit.  WOW!  Also, the NWS has issued a discussion for a weather watch just south of here.  Gary do you think sever weather is possible today and tonight one because it is so warm and we are close to the warm front and all that.  Could it be interesting later today?  

dowder-
I do have children- 3. I also work with 80 students in the public schools. They come up with some interesting questions!

MelissaLG-
Thank-you for the explanation on why snow is white. That's really fascinating.  I had no idea about all of that.

Susy