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So possibility of a inch around Leavenworth? *************** LV StormSpotter,

Hi, you are in the half inch or less area.  St. Joe will have the best shot, it gets cold enough there by 10:00am this morning, Leavenworth and KC have to wait two to three more hours and by then most of the moisture could be gone. Brett

The severe weather continues down south.  Springfield had up to 100 mile an hour winds not long ago.  It sounds bad. :(

Kristi ********************************* Lots of tornado warnings still going as of 3:30 am. Brett

thanks, time for me to go to bed. Have a great early morning.

Hello Brett, I wasn't sure if anyone else was still awake. Lol. How is the storm near Leavenworth looking? I am watching the radar and it looks to be getting stronger. **** I just put our velocity scope on it and there doesn't appear to be any rotation, just looks like the rain is increasing in intensity.  I'll keep an eye on it for hail.  Brett

It looks like the front has moved thru Springfield.  I noticed that with the latest observation there that the winds out of the NW.  I am still listening to a live stream from KTTS, a radio station in Springfield.  The live stream is about to end.  There is one building that has collapsed right near downtown Springfield.

Kristi ***************** Kristi, thanks for the update.  It appears as if the worst is over for Springfield.  One cluster of heavy rain, wind and thunder near Collins and Bolivar.  Drier air is punching in from the west.  Brett

You are welcome.  The rain is moving away very quickly.  Do you think that we will have any precip today?

Kristi ******************** Kristi,  Yes, we will see the wrap around precip that is over central KS.  It should be a rain/snow mix as teh morning goes on.  I don't see much in the way of snow accumulation.  Brett

What is amazing to me is the Springfield area was under the gun from 6pm to 3am..  Thats 9 hours of constant tornado threats, large hail, and heavy rain.   It will be a sight to see when the sun comes up.   Crazy what the cost of all these storms are this year already.    With the LRC,  this is going to be one year to remember. ****** Can you imagine if this an upper low had formed and was negatively tilted?  Brett 

At 7:30 as I was driving to work, It started sleeting in the north part of town. By the time I reached school, it was mixing in with some snow. I'm curious if we will get some sleet before changing all over to snow.  ************ I think it will mix back and forth before changing all to snow.  You could get an inch of snow or two. Brett

Gary

Amazing evening for those folks just to the south. Grain Valley had a nice thunderstorm early this morning and picked up .61 at my house. Jeff ***********

Thanks for the update, Brett

By 7:40 am I noticed that we are starting to get some snow here in St. Joe and now it is snowing here!!  Unreal some areas of KC in the last 7 hours have had damaging thunderstorms and now we are having snow in St. Joe...******* Nick, thanks good to hear you are getting the changeover already.  Brett

SNOW IS REALLY COMING DOWN NOW, WOO HOO PRETTY LARGE FLAKES TOO!!

Sleet and snowing in Leavenworth. Changing to snow and large graupel.

My daughter called me about 7:50am as she was walking into school in Northeast Ks, she said there were little white balls everywhere and it was starting to snow. She just now called before one of her classes and said it was snowing good there! ***** Thanks, for the report.  Where is she in northeast KS? Brett

Flakes are a bit smaller but the snow is still coming down thick here in St. Joe...
There already is a good dusting on the grassy and elevated surfaces and it is even trying to stick to the streets some. ********** Sounds like its playing out as expected for St. Joe.  Brett

Light to moderate sleet falling at Fort Leavenworth this morning. Lots of lightning and thunder near Reno last night. About .28" of rain. ******* Thanks.  Brett

Just called my mom in Northwest Leavenworth County, She said there are big flakes of snow falling!  Not to far away from KC!  ****** That is very helpful, Brett

Could be interesting some the the precip. near St. Joe looks to be somewhat convective on the radar.

we had some sleet earlier this morning now its a snow sleet mix here in Lawrence!! ******** Thanks, I'll get that in my next update here in less than a minute. Brett

08:31 CST, currnet observation 37.4 degrees and falling slowly with heavy mist/drizzle falling.  The rain snow line is very close.

At least Quarter sized snow flakes now.

After last winters disappointments I hope the folks up north are finally satisfied and content, can we now get onto winter and the storms come through the southern part of the metro! We too would like to see snow as well.

SNOW is more than welcomed here too!!!!!  ******** I'll talk to the weather genie and see if he or she can make it happen.  Brett

Huge beautiful flakes falling in St. Joe. Ground is almost completly covered. Parking lots and drives also covered. The roads are staying clear, at least the ones that are travelled.  I was surprised to see the drive at school covered though. Would love if it would start sticking to the roads. I like driving in the snow. My students are already talking about getting out early, not that it will happen. ****** Teacher, thanks for your effort keeping us updated. You still have a heavier band yet to move through. Brett

Wee I agree.  SN to MSN now and for the last 30 minutes before that sleet then graple or snow pellets....33 degrees.....Parked cars and ares that are shadded are getting oated as well as the grassy areas.....we could get 2 inches on the ground if what is in Eastern Kansas on RADAR

heavy snow falling at the fort...already accumulating

Wow! Everybody get ready this storm will be back around March 1st. And the Jetstream will be a little bit farther north?? It might be our turn next time.

Very light snow starting to fall in western KCK. ******** Mark, thanks.  Brett

We had a break in the precip. here in Olathe, it has now begun falling again and this time it is sleet.  The temperature from my weather station is now showing 36.5  and very slowly falling.  The radar trends are kind of frustrating for this particular area.  The sleet is mixed with a few flakes, this is in the 119th/35 area.  ******* We are not expecting much snow in Olathe.  Brett

The snow has  shut down pretty much in St. Joe right now just some flakes. ***** There is another band that may track across St. Joe and produce another heavy period of snow.  Brett

Snow at KCI.  Very light at this time.

O.K. THIS IS WEIRD... out side my house it is not snowing much at all, but looking at the live radar, it shows a band of moderate green that should be RIGHT over my part of town!!!!!  According to the radar I should be seeing mod. snow right now but it is just a few flakes, very perplexing  And I know where my position should be compared to the radar.

Hello from Springfield,mo we had to move here a few months ago, but we miss nbc action news, anyway everyone is very tired today we had tornado after tornado, just when we thought it was over another storm with a tornado came thru. we live in greene county. About 3:30 last nite we had about a 100 mph wind gust. I have to go to work now and hope i get thru the day without falling asleep, take care friends.

Snowing in Zona Rosa since about 9:45 AM...

According to Gary we are in a 54 day cycle for the LRC, so November 7th should of had precipitation shouldn't it?  The 6th or 8th didn't either!  I'm just curious.

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Doug,

It isn't what happens specifically at the surface that matters.  This storm system did happen in November, but not on the 7th.  54 days ago was November 15th and we had a strong short wave trough ripping by.  It can be traced directly to this storm we are having now.  Go back and look at our 45 day forecast issued last week.  Everything is down on paper now.  The test is on and the LRC is coming through big time with a great long range forecast.  Just watch what happens in the next three to four weeks.  Keep paying close attention. 

And, I say it isn't what specifically happens at the surface, but in many situations, especially the bigger events there will be very close comparisons to what happens in each event.  This just happens to be one of the weaker events in the cycle.  The big ones are ahead of us.

Gary

Checked the rain gauge-.20 yesterday evening and overnight an additional .60 for a grand total of .80!! (Kingsville) Did it storm last night down here-I didn't hear a thing if it did!!!

Hello!! No snow flakes for me but we I did get .95 of rain...yeah!!!! It was nice to get that ground washing that we needed. The weekend was soooo beautiful and it was wonderful to have the girls playing outside and running off that energy they have been storing for weeks now. Have a good day.
Monica
Pleasanton

oops sorry Gary on my math there, yes it would indeed be the 15th!  I guess it's still early.

So if that's the case then Feb 2nd should be the big magical day.  54 days after the Dec 11th ice storm.  

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Doug,

We don't  want another ice storm do we?  Remember the 54 days has been pretty precise so far.  It could be off by a couple of days this next time through the cycle.  If these storm systems do repeat during the January 25th to February 20th time frame it will still be amazing.  Yes, I expect it, but predicting long range has been shown to be almost impossible, until now with using the LRC. 

And, there is hope that the cold air will be deeper this time and there could be snow instead of ice.  Let's hope.

Gary

fat snowflakes in Liberty beginning about 15 minutes ago.....:-)  pretty!!!

After a small round of sleet this morning, there is now a rain/sleet/snow mix in NW Ray County near Lawson.  Very little snow in the mix.

"And, I say it isn't what specifically happens at the surface, but in many situations, especially the bigger events there will be very close comparisons to what happens in each event.  This just happens to be one of the weaker events in the cycle.  The big ones are ahead of us."

Wow Gary, for the first time in awhile when it comes to the LRC and surface trends, i agree with all of what you said.

The bigger events are easy to see in surface trending, and extend back three cycles.  It is the weaker events that are looser in the surface trending by far.  Yesterday/today was a very loose corrleation, and if I remember right, only had two matches spanning two days with very light precip associated to them.

I was tentative for yesterday at best as it regarded precip.  In fact, KCI did not record any precip at all.  As this comes back again, I am not sure sure I would expect much if any precip then either.

As far as the only trend that matched yesterday was the last day of a prominent warm streak.  This warm streak has been very strong and very consistent for the last three cycles.  I would expect to see this again in another 54 days.

All in all, yes..the maps show a shortwave..and it did what it was suppose to do.  Its funny how this event will be recorded.

Per the LRC, it was a shortwave that like last time materialized to our east.  This matches.  Per the surface trend, it was nearly a non event.  Even if it rains today, it will be part of the loose match, but it will not rain much at all.  This is consistent with the type of storm that shows up in the surface trends.

All this excitement and all that happened to the SE will be rather meager on paper when all is said and done for this area.

It is amazing how the cycle works, regardless of how you view it - LRC or surface trends.

WOW...does the Topeka radar look really impressive or am I seeing things...heading our way

We had a thunderstorm just to our south in marceline

Gary,

We received 0.30 inches of precipitation in the raingauge for today.

Ray
East Lawrence