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Should the drive home be ok?  Or will it be slick?

Just posted on the last blog that the topkea radar looks quite impressive...seemed to come out of nowhere.  

Gary...

Hope we get something out of this, because the 12Z GFS looks pretty uneventful for the entire 384 hour period after today...


Matt.

Gary can you give the sports crew some lessons in blogging?

looks to me like the center of that precip is taking a drive straight down I-70 headed for the metro.

We've have some lite snow in the Crown Center area for about 15 minutes.

Matt the 1000-500mb I've been looking at shows a good batch of precip from the 240hr to the 264hr mark (Friday the 18th into Saturday the 19th)

Simply amazing, Gary..regardless of the approach - LRC or surface trending, the cycle is there.  It gives a huge advantage...

Nevermind sharing it further..just keep it to yourself and kill your competition.  LOL

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Scott,

Yes!  The colder part of this pattern is showing up more and more as it approaches.  I hope it gets even colder this time so we can prevent the ice storm set up.

Gary

bring on the snow! i am sitting at 35 degrees right now.

hey i was wondering about sat the 12th about how the weather looks right now its my babys 4th b-day party. i have heard mixed things about maybe some bad weather.

thank you

the light snow is picking up again somewhat, the accums. from earlier have tried to melt just a bit but still a good dusting on other than concrete/asphalt surfaces.  All in all considering that this is the "break" in the pattern still awesome.

Snowfall Forecast

.50"-1" for KC and North. (I-70)

.25-.50" or less for KC and South (I-70)

So when should it start snowing in Belton? or is the snow not going to reach are area?

Drexel : 0.56
Gary, why did this storm, particularly the tornadic aspects of it, seem to sneak up on the forecasters in SW MO? I have family in Springfield and they say there was no forecasted warning as to the strength and severity of the storm. It seemed to them that the experts were taken by surprise. What are your thoughts.

Scott,

I looked at your blog, great job, nailed the weather we are experiencing now!    Also, looking at your blog, I can definitely see the trend.

Gary, the LRC is simply amazing...it definitely gives you and your weatherteam an advantage to predicting long range. I look forward to learning more about it in the near future.

Fred

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Fred,

It also helps in the short range as well.  We learn how storm systems act during this season.  And, when a storm approaches we can tell when the computer models are way off, even a day out. 

Gary

I also would like to get a proffessional opinion on how the severe weather outbreak got past most of the forecasters.  I would think anytime you have that warm moist air out ahead of cold air something like yesterday has to be possible.  

I'm sitting on 35.8 degrees at my house in Olathe.  I really hope this thing doesn't dump snow.  I want the 60 degrees back!!!!  ;)

iplayoutside,

It got by some, but not all...the SPC had this in their sights for the last week.  I think it was more of the local mets that it got by due to atleast several factors, one of the most obvious is...

You don't expect a severe weather outbreak in Winter.

That aside, normally for a severe outbreak, you need to have some decent convective potential, in a classic sense.  This typically is void at this time of year in this area.  The thing that enhanced this potential was in part due to a bit of convection being found and the signficant upper air dynamics present yesterday.  

I think Gary showed last night on the newscast the jet streak that established out of TX and sloped into SW Missouri.  More than any other component, that was the one piece that really made it work.  Otherwise, it likely would have just been some thunderstorms.  For tornadic weather, you need convection, sheer, and moisture amongst other things.  It all came together yesterday.

Normally, you will see this type of setup further south with and along the axis of the sub tropical jet.  That is especially true for Winter time where convection is weak.

If it were more common place in this area..I am sure more would have picked it up.

Winter forecasting and Spring forecasting are very different in the parameters one looks at.  If you are not keyed to look at Springtime, I am not sure anything within the normal tools of Winter forecasting would have shown this as clearly.  Sure, you could see thunderstorm potential..but not the specific focus of whether it would be tornadic.

I am not sure many in the area missed the thunderstorm potential...just the tornado potential.

Fred..thanks!  Keep reading as there will be more and more examples of how surface trending is crucial to long range forecasting!

Will there be a strong wind gust ahead of this next storm?

Light snow begining to fall at Fort Leavenworth.

Andrew, are you aware with your snowfall predictions, you are trying to split the atom?  LOL

Your ranges in a liquid precip amount range from .025 inches to .1 inches.  That level of precision is not only extremely difficult to forecast, but to me a bit too granular.

I can say for sure, most of the general public couldn't even measure this to validate a forecast.

You will lose far more on this type of forecast than win.

Imagine trying to get to this level of precision for a springtime storm.  You would pull your hair out, and still likely be wrong.

Great effort in doing this, but probably too finite...

Just my thoughts.

Gary -

"The colder part of this pattern is showing up more and more as it approaches."

Who cares if the models show it?  We know it will be there.

I don't look at models more than 3 times a week max anymore...LOL

Gary,

If you were to put a % chance on if we are going to have a "really harsh" winter here in KC, what would it be?  It just looks like it's getting warmer to me not colder.  Just a question.

I am ready for snow, this has been too much spring like weather.


Gary,

That Jet Streak was like a different Jet Stream that developed yesterday?

Everyone dont be too exited about snow!!! Here in Leavenworth its all falling as rain, meaning it will most likely be rain for areas south of here as well. : (

gary i see another channel has taken the snow out for thursday what are your thoughts on it thanks

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It appears that the Thursday storm will be producing precipitation in Iowa.  Let's see if this trend continues.  If it does we will likely take it out of the forecast as well.  I am waiting on one more computer model run.  The latest data has no chance, but things change fast.

Gary

light snow is steadily coming down now but the stuff on the ground up here is melting so in the end we have already hit the "height" of accumulations.  If this trend keeps up, this may be one of the most "damaging" winter in a long time if you count the ice storms and the severe weather truly some craziness!!

I dont expect areas south from topeka to North of Leavenworth to Platte City to see any more snow outa this thing. Maybe a snowflake at best.

Still hoping up here in Leavenworth. Temp rose to 37.2

I have a couple of questions. Gary, you said we have to watch the temperature and 34 or 35 we could see light snow, 36 and above it would be rain. So why is St Joe getting snow when their temp has been 36 for a while? The temp here is 35 but not getting anything. Second, do you think from the triangle south will see any rain or snow?

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It is cold enough to snow just above us, so 36 or even 37 to 38 could have snowflakes mixed in.  Otherwise the snowflakes melt.  When the precipitation is at its heaviest the temperature may drop one to two degrees and this could change it briefly over to snow.

Gary

Soundings for Olathe look ok for snow at 35F at 1800z...but like LVS says above, after the 3 hour window, surface temps rise.  They likely only fall for this duration due to a hair of evaporative cooling.

Will be nice to watch. little concern about accumulations.

Snow has picked up again in St. Joe with pretty good sized flakes!

Scott,

Thanks! In Other Words: I'm not expecting much in the way of accumulation!!

Scott, maybe you could answer my question, I know Gary is busy.

So far Olathe North HS- .30" of RAIN

Snow begining to mix in leavenworth, The heaviest of the precip is moving in from the NW, As that moves through thats your best bet for seeing some really big snowflakes. : )

Its coming down hard now!

snowing here at 130th and State Ave in KCK

Bryan

Gary,

When is the "cold part" of your pattern?  For instance, what date range would you stay it occured the first time around?  

Thanks

Snow is coming down extremely hard in Leavenworth, giving us a nice dusting.

If the cold pattern comes back KCI MUST have temperatures below zero. If that does not occur it is not a true blast.

Still snowing here in KCK 30 mins later, however no accumulations.

Bryan

Gary,

I'm curious by your comment earlier? "That Jet Streak was like a different Jet Stream that developed yesterday" Are you saying that Jet Streak was unlike anything you have seen before as a totally new type of weather Phenomena or just extremely rare for early January?

Jeff

Snowing in Olathe!


frigate,

That was me, asking Gary. Since I really don't know what a Jet Streak is.

snow has shutoff here in KCK

Bryan

I am still curious how this is going to affect the drive home?  Is it going to be slick?

Plazajayhawk, I doubt the drive home will be slick, I know where I am at, we have had nothing, just off and on super light drizzle.

The sun is starting to peak out in western KCK

Hey Notes, I want to know the "cold" part of the cycle too.  I don't see it.  I see two cold streaks within the cycle both in the amplified and zonal phase, and several smaller warm streaks...

As far as each of these streaks, I can show them back three cycles.  

I think Gary is referring to the cold streak that alligns with the more amplified part of the cycle or the beginning of the AKA mid October or early December version.

On a different puter, I could define exactly what that date range should be...and for that matter the rest of February if you are interested...

Notes, I know I committed to provide more information, and hope I have begun to spark that from my blog and comments in this one.  If you want more, let me know...as I think there is enough data available know in this year's cycle to show significant trends that could be used in long range forecasting this year.

Are you game?

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Scott and Notes,

I didn't get to read Notes comments yet, but I am looking forward to it.  Anyway, so I make a statement of something like the cold part of the cycle when just answering someones question.  You guys just take that out of context.  The pattern is about to go into some big amplification, right on schedule according to the LRC.  So, this will lead to colder weather, with the potential for an Arctic outbreak. This is all I meant. 

O.K., now I must go search for Notes statement.  I was outside catching the last few snowflakes for a little drink.  Sorry, I got away for a while.

I just found Notes statement, but I can't get back to respond.  Notes, you saw our 45 day forecast, enough said!

Gary

centralop, according to the gfs, the cold comes back with a vengeance starting early next week...look at the fantasy models for florida...not only is that snow, but heavy snow??? cant be...this should be an entertaining remainder of january for us.  although, to tell you the truth...next week is looking cold and dry, not cold and wet as of now...

still just plain rain here in Marceline

Now there is a light mixture here between Belton and Grandview.

snow in independence

From Notes:

"For instance, what date range would you stay it occured the first time around?  "

From Gary:

"I just found Notes statement, but I can't get back to respond.  Notes, you saw our 45 day forecast, enough said!"

Wow.  I thought it was a fair question.  Perhaps, Gary, when you get back to respond you can provide where in the pattern this happened before.  

When I can get to another puter later, I will be more than happy to show it if it hasn't already been answered.  I can show one of them now, but will have to look later to get the other..

Here is the first cold streak...

Sept 10-16th
Nov 1-7th
Dec 27-Jan 3rd


If you look at each of these periods, they fall within +/- 2 days of the 54 day cycle. So far each of these streaks are 6-8 days.


Based on KMCI NWS data, below is the respective mean deviation for each of these 7 days.
-5.4 F
-5.0 F
-6.1 F

Notes, does this help?

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Notes and Scott,

This is not from me, this is from Scott.  I have not embraced Scott's idea of the surface cycle, and of the possibility of the cycle beginning earlier than October.  I went through this in a private email to Scott, after pouring over all of the data this past weekend.  I am firm in the belief that the LRC began in October again this year, right around October 7th or 8th where this pattern took on its identity.  And, that the September part of the pattern is from last year's LRC. 

Anyway, I did find Notes statement.  And, I answered it!  We have it laid out in our 45 day forecast issued last week.

Gary

Pvt_murphy,
According to the LRC, we won't have any active weather until Jan. 25th.  Then the weather is expected to be active thru Feb. 15th or 20th (can't remember which date it was).

No snow accumulations here in south Raytown.  I don't know if we had any snowflakes or not.

I want warm weather. :)

Kristi

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Kristi,

Thanks!  This is what our forecast states!

Gary

We have a bright sky now, our mixture lasted 10 minutes.

Gary,

Your response to my question about when the cold part of your cycle existed in the past ("I just found Notes statement, but I can't get back to respond.  Notes, you saw our 45 day forecast, enough said!") reminded me of a politician begging to not be pinned down on anything specific.  Running for office this fall?  It seemed like a fair question to me since you've never really stated specifically before what period you considered your "colder" part of your cycle.  

But while you're answering questions:  I'm curious about why you stopped at a 45-day forecast.  If the cycle is relatively straightforward (which you claim it to be at 54 days) and is consistently repetetive, why not run the forecast out 6+ months into the summer?

Scott - your feedback with dates was exactly what I was looking for - thank you.

Also Scott - I have read a little of your blog, but haven't followed it super closely - it just seems to me to get infinitely complex ... beyond being helpful.  When you start working phases into pattern into the cycle into the ... ... it seems to get beyond manageable...like Ptolemy and his epicycles in describing a geocentric solar system.  That's not to say I'll stop reading - indeed I won't - I'll keep examining any evidence you put forth but as much as you can probably assume - I'm not convinced as of yet.

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Notes,

I did treat it like a politcal statement, but only because I have not much time today.  I referred you to last weeks blog, because the specific dates are there.  Let's be patient and see what happens. By putting our forecast out there, and showing what the pattern will actually look like, based on the past cycle, this will either confirm or raise questions concerning the LRC.  So, we are in a "mid term exam", wait and see mode, and this is why we will be patient.  I think you are seeing in the models a trend right towards what we have anticipated.  But, it is in the models, and not reality yet.

Gary

We had big puffy flakes earlier here in TOnganoxie but now it is sunny and 41.4

Gary,

I am aware you have not embraced the surface trends yet.  I believe that since the surface trend method and the LRC method each yielded 54 days, it seems there would be a connection.  

Also, I am puzzled as how I found the cycle in early November if it didn't exist yet.

In addition, as each warm or cold streak occurs, it seems to allign to a trough or ridge nearby, futher solidifying the notion of a cycle and strengthening the evidence supporting the LRC.

I remember seeing in a previous entry about a week ago noting that my method is really the LRC with a Scott twist.  While I disagree with this since I do not use maps in my analysis, I am intrigued that you would not embrace this if indeed it is just a subset of the LRC.

Help me as I am confused to what all this means.

Notes, ignore the phases.  That was simply put into the analysis to designate a point of reference between the zonal and amplified stages of this cycle.  Also, it seemed to be a good idea at the time to use this point of reference to define where the warm and cold streaks cycled as it related to the overall cycle.

Since that time, I have more clearly defined this information in my research and will continue to simplify it ongoing.  More specifically, I have attempted this in the last week or so.

Thank you for the feedback.

Gary,

If it isn't the surface (sensible) weather that cycles (according to your theory) then why are you talking about cold and warm parts of your cycle?

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Notes,

There is a strong relationship to what happens around 500 mb and at the surface.  I have continued to present the LRC by using the 500 mb level.  I am certain that we could use other levels to show the cycle and the weather pattern since they are all interconnected.  The least likely level to use is the surface.  This is because of the energy in the flow varying in strength from one month to the next.  The jet stream will strengthen from October to Januaury.  It reaches peak strength in January or February and then weakens as we move towards summertime.  According to the LRC, the pattern in November and the pattern we are in right now is directly related in this years pattern.  But, the jet stream is stronger now than it was in November.  And, we are seeing some different results at the surface.  But, NOTES before you go crazy here, it is just these weaker features that can be very different at the surface.  This is why Christmas week stayed stormy even though it wasn't anticipated by the same part of the pattern in late October that had already occurred.  When the stronger features reappear in each cycle, similar results are likely at the surface, especially during the winter months. 

So, when the flow is expected to amplify, we can expect a much higher likelyhood of having a cold outbreak.  This is the part of the pattern that is heading our way.  When I am talking about a warmer or colder part of the pattern, this is when there is a strong signature that will lead to a cold or warm stretch.

Gary

had nothing in SKC just some rain. But Sunny Now..

not one snowflake......all rain....

I man begining to wonder if its winter anymore?..lol

its been at 36.5 since I woke up.....hasn't budged a tenth of a degree

Hi Gary--just got home and checked the rain gauge.  It showed .32
I see the temperatures marginal over the next 7 days a little above normal to near normal.  According to the NWS this week is supposed to be the "coldest" week yet according to the LRC and the 45 day forecast colder air should be coming and the stormier part in about 10-15 days?  Thanks for your work, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

It is just nice to get our first precipitation of the new year.  We didn't have to wait too long.

Gary

Partly cloudy now in St. Joe with most if not all of the snow from earlier melted, still some good snow flakes, I guess I  would call it a "fluffy rain";)

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Nick,

Thanks!  Have a great evening.

Gary

Gary, et al,

We got 1.4" overnight and another .10" with the light drizzle today for a groundsoaking 1.5" total rain (five miles north of Warrensburg and just west of Highway 13).  It came pretty heavy yesterday evening and woke us up overnight!

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Thanks! That is a lot of rain for January, and it is amazing a few spots south of you had over 5 inches of rain.

Gary

Hi Gary,
It's interesting to see that severe weather outbreaks are getting earlier and earlier.  In 2006, it was March 12th.  Last year, it was Feb. 28th.  This year, it was Jan. 7th.  One has to wonder what is behind this.

Kristi

kristi,

although not as frequent in january, there has always been occasional tornado outbreaks in all 12 months...i wouldnt use this as a crutch for global warming or anything...not saying that you are...but some will try.

also, i am aware what gary's stated lrc theory is...however, i provided evidence to him and jeremy that conflicts with their cycle length, and since i havent heard back from them, i am just commenting on sensible weather in the meantime.  

My comment has nothing to do with global warming...  I stay away from that argument.  I am just wondering why we have outbreaks like this in areas that normally don't see them until spring.

I know it is not unusual to have tornadoes in any month of the year.  But, it is unusual to have the outbreak that we saw yesterday.  Look at WI, it is highly unusual to have a tornado there in either Jan. or Feb.  

Kristi

lol, next year we expect an outbreak in december!

i know you didnt suggest it was global warming, thats why i mentioned that in the initial comment.  but one could ask, what did you mean by...one has to wonder what is behind this?...but like i said, i never said that you did say it had to do with g.w...

they certainly are uncommon in these parts...the peak(strong) tornado season in fla is jan-feb, but aside from that, you have to go to the gulf coast region to find tornadoes with any sense of regularity.  

the second worst weather event of my life(behind hurricane andrew)was a tornado outbreak in orlando on feb 22/23 1998.  we had tornadoes going all night with softball sized hail...42 people died, including 3 people one street down from us.  42 people died within a 60 mile radius of orlando that night.  it seemed like 'everyone' knew someone that periled in that storm...it came out of nowhere.  i think i remember that 16-20 people of the 42 were at a KOA campground.  can you imagine going down that way? in a campground? thats awful

Exactly, Murph...  These kinds of outbreaks are unusual for us here in the central part of the US during the winter.  They are outbreaks that you might find farther south this time of year.

That would be terrible...  Losing your life with very little or no warning. :(  That's why my friend has a SAME weather radio down at the lake.  She got caught in a tornado warning in the area some years back and was unsure if the tornado was coming her way or not.  Another friend down there now has a storm shelter for some people to head to.  Tornadoes at night are deadly when people are sleeping.  My weather radio is set to go off for tornado, flash flood, and severe t-storm warnings and watches.  I also live about 1/2 block from a tornado siren too.  

A weather radio should be a standard piece of equipment in every household inr areas that is prone to severe weather.  I wouldn't be without one.

Kristi

fortunately in these modern web-based times, i am able to let loved ones know if there is a threat of severe weather much easier than before...although yesterday is a testement that even if you know the possibility is there, there is no way to know how severe the situation can get...

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Murph,

Great point!  The big F5 Oklahoma City tornado on May 3, 1999 it was a slight risk at first.  You just have to monitor every situation and take it seriously.

Gary