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Looking forward to seeing what the newer models show.  You mentioned 3-4 hours of precip, will this be primarily in the afternoon?

I mistyped, you said it could snow heavy for 3-4 hours.  Does this mean that we would probably only have 3-4 hours of precip or 6+ with 3-4 being heavier?

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With the lack of moisture and the storm forming right here it is tough to say that it will be 6 straight hours of precipitation.  But, about that 9 hours of precipitation in the area.

Gary

Well I guess I can forget about my Birthday snow storm I was wishing for on Saturday!!! Oh well..I guess I can not get everything I want, LOL!! It was nice to get some rain Sunday into Monday, everything looks cleaner. Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton

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Monica,

We didn't know about your request for a Saturday snow storm you wanted on your birthday.  I will put in the order.  There is a very slight chance.

Gary

Snow Dance!!    

Very tough indeed. I'll update my blog and 5 day Later. I continue to study radar data in StormLab 4.0 Supercharged from Monday's event.

I think this storm has very high bust potential, probably see some snow but no accumulations. The LRC just doesn't support that right now.

Bryan

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Bryan,

This storm can only bust if it produces a big snowstorm.  The forecast is for just scattered showers with snowflakes mixed in.  A forecast can only bust if its wrong.  What I think you mean is, this storm will most likely not come together.  That is a big difference than saying the word "bust". 

Bigger storms lie ahead of us.  If it rains or snows at all on Thursday I will be impressed.

Gary

Another light storm.  These storms are trailers.  The main show lies ahead.

Thank you Gary for correcting me! That is exactly what I was trying to say. I should have looked at what I was typing! Scott, I agree these smaller scale storms are leading up to the more active part of the pattern!

Bryan

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Bryan,

No problem.  The word "bust" scares us meteorologists.  If we blow a forecast then we will deserve hearing that word.  But, I would prefer to never hear that word again, at least when it comes to our forecasts.  I know it will happen once in a while though.

Gary

Gary,  

         The storm is coming in negatively tilted, would you expect to have some strengthening over the next 12 hours based on this fact?  Thus, giving us a better shot at a bit of snow over rain.

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It isn't as negatively tilted as the last one, but it looks dynamic enough.  The moisture is seriously lacking.  Let's see how the next two model runs trend.  I don't really see a lot of potential, but there is some.

Gary

The 12Z GFS looks quite cold after days 8-10 for areas east of the Rockies!

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I know, and for fun I will probably issue an Arctic Air Watch soon.  If you look at what happened in December, the pattern never locked up enough to produce a true Arctic air mass and blast.  Will it this time?

Gary

It will lock up for about a week...I expect to see a day or two that touch sub zero nearby, it just won't be prolonged.

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Scott,

If it locks in for even three days then it will be a deep freeze for10 days or longer as the storm systems start tracking across.  So, the "not prolonged" forecast may fail if it locks in at all.  The last time through the cycle it didn't quite lock in long enough to produce a true Arctic blast.  Let's see what happens this time.

Gary

Scott,
If we even have an inch of snow on the ground the lows will likely be below zero, especially in the outyling areas. It is VERY hard to get subzero lows in the urban areas unless the airmass is very cold.

EDIT: This is the potential I see if the cold air projected by the GFS actually materializes in the longer range. Thickness values will likely drop to 510mb if not lower. The Upper Midwest has the potential to see thickness values drop as low as 486mb!

hmm interesting storm....

all storms have their  "if this happens we will see snow" things, but rarely do they materialize....I just hope I see some snowflakes.....

I await the arctic airmass showing up on the 7 day....so far we have tuesday with a high of 40!.....

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Brent,

Try to do something today. I know this is difficult because it is so frustrating.  But, let's say you would just imagine yourself being in Leavenworth, Lawrence, or St. Joseph this winter, thus far.  Would you be saying rarely do they materialize?  Try to do this.  Harrisonville and areas south have been mostly left out this season, but there is potential for you to finally get one soon.  We will certainly see some chances within the next month.  Now, try to think positively. 

Gary

Gary,

As always, you are "dead on!"  I have become a believer in the LRC.  What do you think will happen in the period from 168 hours to 336 hours (week 2)?

Great job, as always!

A TRUE Believer,

Jeff
Scouter1900

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Jeff,

Thanks!  But, it hasn't happened yet.  Everything is heading in that direction though.  We think it will be quite stormy after the cold gets here.  4, 5, 6, or even 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th.

Gary

Hello Gary!
I am new to this, so bear with me. I have enjoyed reading this blog immensely for the last couple of weeks. I am a weather fan....especially SNOW! I grew up in Alaska, and have 2 brothers who still live there. Also have a son who lives in Minneapolis. I am so envious, as he has a foot of snow in his yard! But, surprisingly, the brother in Anchorage hasn't had that much snow so far this winter!

If we are allowed, I would like to recommend a fun site weatherunderground.com.

I am anxiously wating for the BIG snow to hit Johnson County(Olathe in particular!)...it does seem we are in a dome a lot of times...even when it comes to spring storms. What could be up with that??? The proverbial "split". Storms seem to just go either north or south of us. Could be we aren't close enough to the river??
Any thoughts welcomed!

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Welcome to the blog and thank you for your first comment,

First of all on the split.  No matter where you live you will feel like storms split around you.  A lot of times they converge right on top of you, but most of the time they seem to miss.  This is nothing special to Olathe, Blue Springs, Lee's Summit, Sedalia, or Norman, Oklahoma.  I spent many years in Norman going to the University of Oklahoma and starting my career down there.  And, we called it the Norman pit affect since storms seem to split around us.  So, it is real, but it exists almost everywhere. We just want to get hit by these storm systems and when they leave us disappointed we think it happens all of the time.

And, our snow may still be coming soon.

Gary

I am eagerly awaiting the portion of the LRC when it gets colder.  I have told everyone I know about what to possibly prepare for.  But KC maybe on the fringe of the excitement..... we know how that goes!  Atleast we haven't been totally excluded this time!  Thanks for keeping your blog so updated, its awesome!  I am also thinking this spring will be a little on the rough side given this years LRC.  I just got a computer at home FINALLY and I am looking over everything to a T on here and I am going to use the LRC to help me pinpoint the spring months. I have to plan vacations for storm chasing, lol.  I didnt have the time last year but this year I will.  I think this spring may be alot more rough than a couple years past, we will see.

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We will work on our spring forecast soon.

Gary

I am trying to think positively....but really...this year stinks down here...we haven't seen a snowflake since the middle of december....and even if we get ONE storm...I doubt I will be  happy.,..lol......you don't have to take this upon yourself...I'm not mad at you guys....I'm mad at this weather....its terrible....I mean we aren't getting anything.....I'll try not to

I would love to live in st joseph....lol its like snow heaven up there...its amazing that the heavy snow falls in the horizontal lines...instead of vertical lines...then even the southern areas would see a lot........can anyone explain why that doesn't happen?....the southern zones always get ripped off....because the heavy bands are almost always north....

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Brent,

If you get two snowstorms will you be happy?

Gary

any accumulating snow in Harrisonville on thursday?

you know I would rather deal with snow that tornados in Jan!!! Our thoughts and prayers go to those in the southern missouri.  Wow what a strom, that was a very intese storm for southern missouri, and now I am ready for snow!!! I want snow in winter, not severe weather, I know some of you guys would agree with me on this statement.  I am noticing a big cool down later on in the computer models, espically for next week.  Gary you said that the 540 thickenss is very important becasue in most cases this would mean snow, but I am wondering, how thick the warm layer is.  Is there a way that I could find out? (trying to interpt model data).  If the warm layer is a certian thickness, can evaporative cooling cause the warm layer to diminish?  thus resulting in a colde airmass that would allow snow?

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John,

The thickness of the layer is just that.  It is a measure of temperature, the evaporative cooling will exist through the layer, but the thickness won't drop much at all just by evaporative cooling of a portion of that huge 18,000 foot thickness.

Gary

Everyone seems to complain that there is no snow ever in K.C. or south.  I have lived in St. Joseph since 2000 and this is by far the most winter precipitation that I have ever seen.  I remember last year south of the Missouri River getting all of the action.  It appears that around here you get it good some years and in other years you do not.  Just the way it goes.

Do you not remember last year Brent?    I know it was only 1 big storm, but the Northlanders were screaming for snow last year.     Its all how the low tracks and how much cold air is at the surface.... timing is everything.    

I for one am glad we have not had the winter St Joe has had.   The ice storm with no power is enough for me to bypass winter and bring on spring.    I would have loved to have seen that blizzard though, been awhile since a storm like that.   We will get our shot of at least one big one this year Brent, so keep the faith.

Hi Gary,
Will the arctic air be in place before or during the active part of the pattern?

Kristi

Brent...

Pal, don't you remember last year?  You had more snow than anyone in the entire metro area last year.  Almost every single storm hit Harrisonville harder than it did the rest of the city.  I live in Blue Springs, and am frustrated right along with you, but we can't say we "never" get it....  We may be able to say we "never" get it this year though...Don't lose faith yet...

Matt.

"radman22 said:
Do you not remember last year Brent?    I know it was only 1 big storm, but the Northlanders were screaming for snow last year. "

yes, therefore I have  a right to "scream" or complain about no snow..lol just kidding.......

yeah last year we had about 28 inches I think.....

but there were people that had almost 40 inches...I believe it was warrensburg...or butler!

Everyone on the blog,
I am trying to create a anthology of the March 12th 2006 severe weather outbreak, and  for my anthology I would like to know some websites you would suggest to get past weather information, if it would be at all possible I would love to also get some information on where I could find archived data on sounding charts, station plots, archived radar images (if possible) satellite, hodograph, information like that, I know some of the information I need I will have to talk to the nws and various sources, but if anybody knows of any good sites to find archived weather data, please let me know.  Thank you for all of your help.

Well, go back a few posts and I already have my Spring Forecast!! hmm, how different will it be from Gary's? hmm

Hi John,
Here's info about the March 12, 2006 outbreak here in the KS-NO area:  http://www.extremeinstability.com/06-3-12.htm

It has pictures and radar images.

Pictures and info from the Topeka NWS:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=lwc_wind_031206

Information regarding the outbreak March 11th thru March 13th from St. Louis NWS:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=03_11_06_tornadooutbreak

There are just a dew I came across..  Google "March 12, 2006, tornado outbreak"  and you should come up with a lot of information about the outbreak.

Kristi

Hi John,
I have some more links for you.

Here's a link from the Storm Prediction Center with all the storm reports from 3/12/06:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060312_rpts.html

The link below has a link to a radar loop of the entire outbreak on March 12, 2006.
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cases/060312/supercell/withstorm_all.mpg  Everyone needs to see this!  I am not kidding.

Kristi

Excuse my typos...  I did a yucky job of proofing before I posted.  Sorry!

Kristi

If anyone can explain this I would appreciate it.

I was given a new wireless weather station for Christmas.  For about 2 days before the storms hit the other day the barometer was reading about 28.80".  In addition, my indoor barometer was reading about the same thing (the two of them are unrelated).

All other areas were reporting a pressure quite a bit higher than this (internet sites, news, etc.)  

Can anyone explain why my barometers would read significantly lower than the norm?

Thanks

Terry

where can i go to see the 2006-2007 snow totals for the Kansas City Region?

thanks

Thank you Kristi for your information, I will be sure to go to those sites, I really appericate it.  
Thank you,
John Moon III

Terry...if it is anything like my weather station, I had to setup when the pressure was 30.00...i didn't do this at first and it was reading all sorts of crazy until I did that....Again not sure if it will help you or not but wanted to mention it.

Bryan

Yea, don't move to St. Joe just because of one LRC year, last year I was so envious of the area just south of K.C. It just takes time...  I'm going to try and soak in every snow event that I can this year because I know that we may be the snowy ones this year but it won't last forever...

husky...try the national weather service.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax

Bryan

could we be in for a "slush storm" in St. Joe;)

I bet it starts soon enough and snows hard enough that we have accum on grassy areas of 3-4 and slush in the streets.  Maybe even accum in the streets it is only 41.1 now with broken overcast and can drop back to 32-34 very easy.

Gary L said: "I spent many years in Norman going to the University of Oklahoma and starting my career down there.  And, we called it the Norman pit affect since storms seem to split around us.  So, it is real, but it exists almost everywhere. We just want to get hit by these storm systems and when they leave us disappointed we think it happens all of the time."

Then look what happened in '99!  F5, costliest tornado in US.  I remember following that one from my dorm room in Maryville.  That was a huge outbreak day, may 3rd.  

and... it was the highest wind speed ever recorded from a tornado yes???  Am I remembering correctly?

John,

Here is the motherload in what you are looking for...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/060312/index.html

This is a nice product from the SPC.

It has all that you are looking for.

The Moore F5 was intense.  Because of its locality and proximity to OU, I suspect they were able to get some decent data on that tornado.

Pound for pound, I would match that tornado from a sheer weather perspective with Greensburg.  Obviously, because of the Moore location..there was a much different human/economic impact as result based on population density.

Scott- Thanks!  I am into this too.

Scott,
Your link is much better than what I found!  

Kristi

nope the tri state tornado of the late 1920s beats them all hands down. . . just look it up it nothing short of awful.  Thank God it was in the 20s a long track tornado two miles wide with a debris path of over ten miles on the ground for over three hundred miles.  That is a tornado!!

Yes, Lori, the Moore OK May 3, 1999 tornado was the one with the highest winds ever recorded.

Kristi

I think the GFS is overdoing the thickness progs a bit.  I am expecting a blast, but more in the realm of the 15th -21st, and maybe not quite a deep, though I am seeing signals of damming.  I think beyond that range, while we will have troughs to bring cold air...I am not anticipating the cold as much due to prefrontal warming trends.

One thing to do when analyzing this...look at the 4 panel view.  While we see some nasty progged thickness values down in the low 500s, look at the 540 line at the 500mb level.

In many of the views, it still is north of KC or really north of KC.  That would indicate that based on thickness and where the 500mb height is, that is would be much colder toward the ground.

This verifies based on some of the progs of the 850mb level nearing in some frames -15C.  That said, it appears that the arctic air is progged to be rather shallow, but cold and deep reaching.

We have seen the GFS struggle a bit this year with shallow cold air.  Thinking back to this part in December..who remembers this piece?  Shallow cold air?  During our ice events?

I don't see ice coming back..that isn't my point...but I do think the GFS will struggle a bit with progging the cold air.

I just can't fully buy into it yet knowing the difficulties the GFS had with it and what I detect in surface trends.

stjoeattorney,

You may be right.  I can't say either way.  Historical references past the last 30 years are tough to figure.  This is the same argument for hurricanes as well.  Not to say they weren't as bad as they say, but measuring, communications, and other factors were much different then.  Its hard to compare apples to apples.

Scott,
Yes, the cold air will be interesting to track. I am expecting the Upper Midwest to see temperatures below zero again in the next 8-12 days. The snowpack in many areas took quite a hit over the past several days, though.

Purely based from the LRC, the theory would dictate a potential of cold air based on the upper air, some ridging, and some amplification.  I am curious to what part of the upper air analysis would help draw out surface projections.

I am so lost on the theory definition and how it is used for surface forecasting.  

;-)

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Scott,

I will have to do a series on the surface/upper air connection.  I think in three days we could get this point across to everyone.  But, the current surface low, that is forming over the Texas Panhandle, is being forced to form there by what is happening with the upper level energy.  It is a sign that this storm is tracking even farther south!

Gary

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_slp204240_l.shtml

The GFS has been consistent at showing a strong arctic high after day 7. However the 18Z GFS is now weaker with the cold air intensity compared with the 12Z.

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Central OP,

Like I always say, try not to analyze the models so scrutinizingly close that far out.  Just imagine a blend between the 12z and 18z run and that is probably going to be the closest.

Gary

gary, i am sending you something...mainly about cycle length...youll find it interesting.

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Murph,

I will look for it!

Gary

i just sent it...

on a separate note, the cloud formations are going to yield a terrific sunset tonight...just a shout out to all you photographers out there(kristi)

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Murph,

I never did get your email?  Or are you sending it by regular mail?

Gary

Thank you Scott, I will be sure to check it out.

i am sending it pm...thats the only 'email' i have for you, did you want it elsewhere or something? i will send it again!

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Murph,

My email is LEZAK@NBCACTIONNEWS.COM

Gary

       Hello Gary, I know you said temp will be critcal, what your gut feeling 38 or 33? Morning drive be ok?

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My gut feeling is that it will warm up to 38 or 39 and then drop back down to around 35 or so.  The morning drive may have some rain.

Gary

I don't know if anybody got to see it, but National Geographic and Discovery Science had 5-6 hours this past week of tornado specials.  They had some on the great tornado breakout in April, 1974; the Moore, OK tornado in 1999 (not the 2003 one), and some others. It was very good.  

Hooray for wednesday!!!! arctic air!...and snow!

can someone tell me why he has rain/snow....on  wednesday when its going to be 27????

I am glad that snow is back in the forecast...

and no Gary...I won't be happy if I get 2 more snowstorms this winter...unless they are big...and they stay on the ground for more than 2 days.......in a normal winter 10 snow events is normal...we have had 4 tiny ones so far....2 more is technically under average in my opinion....but maybe I don't know anything...but I have kept weather records for two years...

3 more would satisfy me...if they are larger than 3 inches....

I missed the weather at 5 and 6......what is a summary?...I caught 2 other stations on at the gym...but I would like your forecast...

Brent

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Brent,

You should get your gym to have us on their screens, that is ridiculous.  And, we have rain and snow on there just to drive you nuts?  At this moment it doesn't look like much with that first strong cold surge, and the timing could be off and there may be some rain too.

Gary

Temp 35.5 dewpoint 26 we should have an all snow event  up here there will be some cooling effect when it starts to take us down to 31 or 32 despite the 15 mph ESE BREEZE.  Now it needs to arive as forcasted!!!  

St. Joe Lawyer. the temp may actually increase, you probably have clear skies allowing the cooler air to come down. As the clouds arrive the temp may go up a few degrees.

39.3 degrees NE winds 2 gusting to 3 with 74% humidity, probably won't cool down too much with the clouds coming in.  Rian or Snow?  

Sorry- that obsv. was from Olathe KS.

I realize the temps may rise as the clouds roll in but the dewpoint at 26 is a factor that can not be ignored. . . the breeze is also cooing the ground . . . not that it is that warm it was overcast most of the day. . . we have cold in the ground still up here. . . we just melted 6 inches of snow off on monday. . . . we only say 60 for a couple hrs late sunday. . .we will know in 18 hrs as it will be darn near over by 1300 hrs thursday. . .  or well underway. . . i said a couple days ago that this event was going to need to bring its own cold air. . . help from the clear skies at the moment can not be ignored.

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Stjoelawyer,

Yes, but the dewpoints are higher to the south and southeast.  This air is trying to pump in here tonight.

Gary

Does this count as one of the upcoming "4-7 snowstorms" in your 45-day forecast?

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Notes,

No, this is not one of them!  This was just a fast moving shortwave trough the last time through the cycle.  The stormy part of the pattern, where we are anticipating the 4 storms and possibly up to 7, is due to arrive later this month through February 20th.

Do you think it is going to snow on Thursday?

Gary

T-minus 90 days and counting to the home opener, can't ya just smell that fresh cut grass!

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Ahhhhhhh, no not yet!  I want more winter first!

Gary

So there is a chance of higher snow totals just depending on the storm track and intensity? To me the storm seems to be intensifying.

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The biggest problem is that it will likely not be cold enough as we move into the daylight hours on Thursday.  The storm will need to be stronger and a bit farther south for it to snow.  It may do it.

Gary

Gary, can't a man dream a little? When I retire from civil service, I too will root along for the snow, as always I enjoy reading the blog, educational and definetely entertaining!

I didn't quite understand what you meant Gary...

do you mean its going to snow tomorrow?

and I was asking about next wednesday...it can't be rain and snow when its 27 can it?........thats freezing rain....

the other channels seemed to say that it would snow tomorrow between 11 am and 4 pm.......maybe some rain mixed in...I just hope it snows....

Brent

Latest NAM starting to roll in, looks like it's trying to cut a bit deeper south from the last run...but I am a rookie at this so am I correct?  

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It is actually about the same and not as wet.  It still has a chance to be a bit farther south, but with so much lack of cold air I wonder.

further south, further south!!!

Thanks Gary, I hope it's enough to at least see some snow tomorrow.

So do I!!

like i said a couple days ago it needs to bring its own cold air in the system. . . if it tracks a tad farther south then st joe will get accum in the grass for sure and depending on the rate of snow and duration of the event streets likely as well.  i think .35 moisture from what i am seeing so 3-4 in of wet snow. . . now it might be melted by 6 when i leave work but it will fall and cause issues. . .. .  

is there going to be a new blog in less than 30 minutes?

this storm looks like it will develop more to the east of us.

Gary

I live in central Missouri and have experienced some unbelievable weather this week from a high temp. on Sunday of 76 to a funnel cloud/tornado on Monday night, followed by almost 3 inches of rain Monday night.  In what you are seeing and thinking for this next storm, are we more in line for acc. snow than maybe you are in KC?  Just wondering as I really could use sometime to dry out alittle. Keep up the good work.

Jason

look at the midwestmosaic radar it is out there headed this way. . . it is now cast time..   ....   ...   ...   ...   ...

Dramatic.....lol

I think we will see up to .25 inches of rain through the day before the solid turnover to snow in the afternoon or early evening.  Same story..those north get a bit more than south..but with this storm, it will be splitting hairs since no one will get much

~ 1" max around the metro if that.

I wonder if much of any of it will stick.  

          Hello Gary and everyone,  Will the precip be here by about 3:00am look at radar out west!!! what time is the switch over rain / to snow or just all Snow?

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We think it is dry through the morning rush hour.  It is too dry right now.

Gary

    Hey Scott, I know it one storm at a time, the precip on Saturday, what do you think any accumulations? Think tomorrow will be like on Tues?

Gary,
Any chance you could put a new blog on for us? Also, many people are questioning whether this "harsh winter" is really going to happen.  Are you still set on this really cold stormy pattern? I'm starting to wonder if it's really going to be that bad. We'll see.

I personaly dont care wether it snows or not...I am just hoping for some precip out of this system.