NBC Action Communities

I hope I wake up to a different blog...lol

Well, your comment that "the best chance of any accumulation will be in northern Missouri" will definitely incite some members of our blogging community!  

These "wishful thinking storms," (possible winter weather events that excite everyone and produce little) are just a precursor to the weather events we will see in the next several weeks.

gary,
many people are questioning whether this "harsh winter" is really going to happen.  Are you still set on this really cold stormy pattern? I'm starting to wonder if it's really going to be that bad. We'll see.

--------------------

Jacob,

Everything is right on schedule. I think it will get at least as cold as it did in December, and then the storm systems arrive.  We will see. Predicting the future is very difficult Jacob.  Be patient.  This warmer period was supposed to happen, remember.  So, as I said everything is right on schedule.  Look at our 45 day forecast we issued over a week ago.

Gary

Jacob,

I am surprised by your tone in your post...as one of Gary's biggest fans, I thought you would believe him when he discusses the LRC and the current part of the cycle we are in.  He is still forecasting winter weather, he is still set on the cold part of the pattern... just have patience :)  We will definitely see more snow in the future!

Beyond that, hope the second semester at school is going well!

---------------

Thanks Fred!  And, Jacob as I just repsonded, just relax.  Remember, winter started only a little over two weeks ago.  We have a lot of time left.  And, remember the last time Jacob got upset with me, it was right before Lee's Summit got about 2 inches of snow. It can be frustrating waiting.

Gary

the storm isnt even here yet, be patient. this storm could do something that would suprise all of us. I still see a chance of accumulating snows, not much, but i still think its there.

Jacob may be a big fan of Lezaks...but I support him almost always when it comes to 41 busting a forecast....yes it doesn't happen often...but one or twice this year they have forecasted too much snow for areas where jacob and I live and when everyone else is congratulating the team...overlooking their mistake.....we are the ones that really got the bust forecast...and yet we are quieted because of our "negative or complaining" attitudes....infact when it came to forecasting the "blizzard" earlier this year...we both agreed that we would get an inch or less....even though Jeremy had previously said 3 to 6...then had decreased.......I know this is over..I am not trying to bring it back...

although I don't entirely agree that the harsh winter will not happen...I am getting concerned that while st joseph may have a very harsh winter...points southeast of KC will not.

Brent

Thanks Fred, it is going rather well.  Also, I didn't mean it the way I think you think I did.  Just the way Gary has been talking lately, to me it just doesn't seem that he's as excited about it.  Just kind of a general wondering thing...you know?  Canada doesn't look that cold, and there is a strong pacific flow cutting away at the cold air.  Still has a lot of time to change I know, but right now it kinda worry's me a little bit.  I guess we will find out what happens...right?  Have a great night!

I think the LRC is working...although I haven't seen significant evidence yet...it may be coming....although Gary...(to my knowledge) has not yet talked about dates yet...he just said that there would be 4 to 7 storms....thats not really specific...not even one date of a possible storm yet....

Gary,
I'm not upset with you at all.  I was just wondering.

Never know Brent,never know!! Remember whose in control.

I have noticed an infusion of myopic arrogance to the blog over the past several weeks.  We ALL need to realize that the weather team is top notch when it comes to doing their jobs. I commute to Omaha each week and rely exclusively on the guys at 41 for accurate non-ego saturated forcasting.  Brent, there have been NO Busts in the forecast for the viewing area that I can remember from the NBC team.  Maybe the other channels have busted the forcast but Gary and his team have not.  If what you are looking for is a microcast for your backyard, maybe you should contract with a private vendor.  But i have to say your negativety is getting old.  Sorry for coming down in the venue but enough is enough.

Jacob,  

No problem, I understand your concern about the winter weather...I think Gary is still excited about it, but he is also in a "wait and see" mode, like most of us are.  I am sure when the storm(s) are making their way to the KC metro area, his excitement level will go up!  Anyways, do you any extra-curricular activities at LSN (sports, etc)?

Brent,

Weather is a tricky thing, anyone will tell you that, and you know that. It can miss you by a few miles and leave you out of loop.  I also live in an area that has missed several of the major weather events of the past year, but I also understand that weather is not an exact science...it pretty much does what it wants to do, when it wants to do it...the forecast just gives you a probability of what it may do.  

I remember reading the blog so many times last year, and reading the disappointed posts of those who lived in St. Joseph compared to the excitement contained in the posts of those who live points south of the KC metro area.  Sometimes it may not be your year...but then again, the year is only 9 days old, winter has just started, and our winter weather in KC typically gets exciting in Jan/Feb/Mar...just be patient and know that Gary and his team have nothing against Harrisonville or Lee's Summit, or anywhere and neither does mother nature :)

I agree with Brent on this one, opeterson, Brent, may be negative, but he is telling the truth. He has been wishful for a good snow this whole winter, and one is predicted, he never gets any. The weather team is very accurate but they are not perfect, mistakes in predictions have been made, but they are by far the best in the area.

Gary, Every winter in Jan. we have a warming trend and I wonder why.  It gives credit to your 'LRC' theory since for  years now we have about a week or two or realitively warmish weather before Old Man Winter comes back.

As a native to the area I remember when I was a kid our winters were cold and stayed cold.  There would be a warm spell here or there but nothing like the patterens we now see.  One couldn't predict more than a couple of days in advance much less 45.  Yet, my belief is this.  Global warming has vastly changed our weather and have you been able to chart this through your theory studies?

you may have gotten the perfect forecast for all the storms opeterson.......

but the team is not God......they are not always perfect....


acknowledge that...

and please stop calling me negative..

it Is getting old......


Brent

gary-got it and i volleyed one back to you...

are temps supposed to warm up before the precip comes this time around, gary? its already around freezing at the surface here, thats why i am asking(slightly above).

murph

Fred, I am really involved in ROTC. I'm on the Drill Team and Color Guard.

Jacob where do u go to school? Are you doing Atmospheric Science as well? I Did JROTC in Highschool.

Brent,

I hope you get some snow, or you might be hammered in the Spring which you don't want.

Gary,

Last Year did the Severe Weather stay South east, I can't remember. Will the Severe Weather stay North now?

I am taking that class next year.  I go to Lee's Summit North.

Well got to go, see you all later.  HOPE FOR SNOW AND COLD AIR!

Jacob,

Hang in there, friend!  All in due time!  Up here in Gladstone, we seem to be in the dry pockets every storm, yet on my way to work in Lenexa, I can definitely see the contrasts!  What a difference a 30 mile trip to work can make with the snow totals.

Be patient!  Good snows come to those who wait (or something like that!). :-)

Jeff
Scouter1900

I have a treat for everyone.  Click away.  Hope I don't bury myself.  LOL

---------------

Scott,

Not bad! I think there is some potential for accuracy in doing it this way.  You are just taking what happened in December and looking ahead 54 days.  Not a bad idea, especially for the stronger features in the pattern.  We will see.

Gary

Cant wait for some prolonged fridged weather with some strong "WET" storm systems to come through!

btw...Have they rated the tornado in Marshfield yet..That would be kind of exciting to here.

Very nice layout Scott.  Simple and to the point and as you say, you lay it all out on the line.   You get specific to the day by using your cycle.   It will be fun to see it pan out and what matches up.    There is no question, this station, using the LRC, is the only one to call for a cold setup, much less many snow storms nearby for that timeframe.    You both are so close but yet so different in your theory and Scott will have some bragging rights if the dates pan out.

I have faith that this setup will indeed happen as I have watched it occure the last few years.    The timing will be the key.

I hear sunspots are going to warm us up for this exact same period by another source....   made me laugh.

Pretty close, Gary..but actually trending what happened in December, October and August/September.  We will see.

yeah umm, i didnt like the warn air in your forecast. : (
Is there any chance thatll not make it up here? I want it to stay cool tomorrow and snow.
Any chance at all of that happening or will it get up to atleast 39 tomorrow?

Please temps drop, drop temps,drop!!

scott very nice layout. i am very excited to see what happens with yours and Gary's. Both scott and the weather team keep up the good work!!

My Snowfall Forecast:

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

Andrew movie the 1inch down to leavenworth and u are set. : ) lol

Why can't I see what Scott posted to click away on???

Vary nice Scott, good job.



on another note is anyone concerned about how the spring will setup? yeah i know its just starting winter but i cant help but wonder if the Dec. part of the pattern will bring some exciting times for us come april/may-ish.

let me clear that up.. exciting i hope for.. but not as much as springfield had...

and futurenurslori.. click on his Scott's name.

Nice layout Scott, It will be fun to see if it pans out, my Dad is supposed to have his annual Superbowl party so it will be interesting to see what happens around the 3rd, could be interesting.  As for the areas to the south, I know what it feels like to get missed and have to wait so I understand Brent's frustration. usually even thought the pattern repeats the latter part of the cold season always seems to have a different flavor to it than the early part, like last year for example, even though we had a roughly 45 day pattern, different stuff happened in Feb. than Nov. and Dec. for example up through the New Year, Omaha had almost NO SNOW at all but by the end of the winter there were some bigger storms up there at the surface that didn't really set up with the earlier cycle and they got about 30 inches for the winter!!  So I do believe that there is a pattern but I also believe that it still set up differently at the surface somewhat from cycle to cycle again due to continually shifting location of the jet and to any different "amplitudes" or "phases" of each cycle. So in short the cut off will likely still be a problem for the people down south but there will likely be times where it will produce.

Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 35 degrees under cloudy skies.


Been pretty hectic here the past few days with school getting back into full swing so I have just been kind of lurking but not much time to really post-not that is necessarily a bad thing considering how long my last entry was LOL!!!

A few random musings this morning:

1.  A very belated thanks for the positive feed back and information on Monday-like I always say, even a broken clock can have a relevant idea twice a day LOL!!! But, the feedback is so very much appreciated!!!!!



2.   A late report from Tuesday’s “event”: we had 5 minuets of sleet; 10 minuets of snow (which had many 7-12th graders very excited!!!) and then 20 minuets of a rain snow mix. Not sure how much liquid we actually finished with as the bottom of my rain gauge fell off and all the liquid with it-I think it safe to say that SW Lawrence had less than ¼ of an inch. However, my thoughts and prayers have gone out and continue to go out to all those in Springfield and surrounding areas-what a horrific night for them.


3.  Regarding today: For sure, the 0z GFS was a bit more bullish with the qpf but the soundings are just not that great-at 18Z today at Topeka the 0z GFS still had the surface and the 900 MB level above freezing so maybe a mix?? But not too impressive on satellite this morning. Plus, while there is some cold enough air in the Dakotas and southern Saskatchewan, it doesn’t really get into the mix until after the precip. Has shut down-the front on the surface charts is pretty wishy washy. That being said, I still, as I rambled on Monday, think that the most important facet of this system is that it is the sign post that we are about to begin the transition into the active pattern and it coincides with the same set up as we saw on 11-21.


4.   I think another sign that we are entering the transition is the forecasted cold front mid week next week. Ok, I’m going out on another limb here (crack, break!!!) but if one looks at the 500 maps from around 11-28-30 there is a strong Upper Level Low traversing across the border of Saskatchewan and Nunavut-that low gave us the weak “polar” front that brought us down into the upper 20’s on Friday 11-30 but of course that time, the front washed out just south of us and we got the warm front on steroids on 12-1. Looking at the last few 0Z and 12Z GFS and EURO runs there is next Wednesday a strong Upper Level Low forecasted to traverse across Canada but this time since we are in early Winter and not late Fall it is further south and the colder air is forecasted to be stronger here-to me, again limb cracking-the front/Upper Level Low of 11-29 and the one forecasted for next Wednesday is the cycle-it fits!!! To me, more evidence that we are now transitioning into the more active part of the cycle. As I have stated before, I do not have the scientific/meteorological training/education to really back these ideas up-but man, you can’t just make up that 50-55 days from 11-29 you have another upper level low traversing across Canada that brings a fairly potent shot of cold air down to us-to me, that is much more than coincidence-that is the LRC and I believe it full throttle!!!


5.  With points 3 and 4 in mind, one has to be patient-we are still 8-10 days away from when the hounds were unleashed so to speak and we had the cold air and SW energy both in the game. My one fear that I have is that this time through the cold air could become the dominant feature (kind of similar to February 2006) and overwhelm the whole pattern-we could wind up with highs in the teens with thin high clouds while Dallas gets 12 inches of snow. Arctic fronts are great if they stall around Oklahoma City-if they dive too far south, we can be left very cold and dry. Just a thought.


Well again, I have babbled too long but these are just a few things I have been considering!! I hope they makes some sense and that I am not out in the parking lot instead of the stadium!!!! Again, like on Monday, if this is deemed too long, please delete-I still wasn’t sure about emailing you as I did not want to clog up your in box-maybe I should have???

Have a great and fantastic day and as always, thanks so much for reading!!!!


Bill in Lawrence

-----------------

Bill,

Thanks, and we are only a handful of people in the entire world that can see the cycle.  I am so glad that you can see it.  Isn't it amazing.  It is right on schedule.  It is more obvious this year for two reasons.  #1:  We are near a long term long wave trough and it is easier to see bigger features that are actually affecting us.  And, #2:  We know it much better as we keep learning about the LRC.

Gary