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Steady rain up near Mosby although it does seem to be slowing down a bit now.

Will we likely see more then a dusting or less then a dusting in Olathe?

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The difference between a dusting and less than a dusting is so ridiculously small.  It will be anywhere from snowflakes mixed in with rain to possibly an inch of snow later today.

Gary

I wonder if I should just hibernate until Wednesday. This storm really doesn't seem like much, so I'm trying to ignore it. Gary, when do you think the first real snowstorm might
happen?  Thanks.

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I may be alone, but today is exciting. 

Gary

Are the chances better up here in Leavenworth?

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There is a much better chance of seeing snowflakes in leavenworth than Paola.  But, the chance doesn't move in until this afternoon.

Gary

Moderate Rain 87th and Lackman

Just to let u know the temps are dropping in Leavenworth. 15mins ago it was 36.2, now  its down to 35.2

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Thanks for the update.  Enjoy the rain this morning.

Jeremy

Moderate rainfall here at 130th and State Ave in KCK.

Bryan

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Thanks for the update!

Jeremy

Hi Gary,
Sorry about that more or less than a dusting question.....my 9 year old weather obsesssed son asked that one!   I try to filter his questions but he slipped this one past me.  Oh, and you are not alone, this rain is exciting too!!  ANY weather event is, to me!!  WeatherMOM,  not weatherson!!  

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WeatherMOM,

You are not the one who should apologize as your question was fine. I should have been nicer on my answer. Sorry!  Sometimes we are forecasting a dusting and then 1/2 of an inch falls.  This is really just a dusting but sometimes viewers will look at everything being white as us blowing the forecast of just a dusting.  The life of a meteorologist.  So, this is why I got a little sensitive.

Gary

Gary,
I have ome work to do this afternon around 4 in LSMO  If it rains I won't have to do it..What are the chances it will be raining/snowing at 4? Thanks!!

WOW, talk about a radar explosion right over our force field!  A NICE heavy rain falling here in Olathe.  38.5 and hasn't really moved since last evening.  
Hopefully after we get dry slotted a little later it will turn white!  

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There is no more force field.  It is a good sign for the entire winter and spring seasons.

Gary

While driving from from home in south Lee's Summit to work at highway 7 & 78, my car thermometer (if there is any accuracy with a car thermometer) went from 39 in LS to 33 at work.  The precip. was still in the form of rain at work though.

Is it just me or does the rap around precip seem to be shrinking and dying down?

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It isn't just you, but wait and see how it evolves in the next few hours.  A new developing band should form in the next four hours.  But, if it doesn't then there is no chance of snow.  I expect it to form, but it will just be a two to three county wide band of precipitation.

Gary

You are too kind, Gary.  If he had asked ME, I would have rolled my eyes and said, "What a DUMB question!!"  :)

He probably did ; ), only kidding!!!

Heavy rain on my commute into work on 435 through JoCo.  Can't even imagine what it would look like out there with the temperature at or below freezing.  You talk about this storm intensifying this afternoon, does that mean a strong chance of more snow in JoCo?

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The storm isn't intensifying, it is just moving by fast.  So, even if it snows it would be rather brief, lasting a couple of hours.  It may end up being rain mixed with snow.  The strongest part of the storm is going on right now.  If it were just three or four degrees colder we would have had a quick 3 inches of snow.  We just barely missed it with these warmer lower level temperatures.

Gary

Thanks Gary.  I'm looking forward to the bigger winter storms coming at the end of the month, according to the LRC.  So I guess this is the calm before The Storm, pardon the pun.

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Yeah, something like that, but man it is pouring out there this morning.

Gary

As of 8:36am by Olathe North HS- .30" of Rain!! With a temperature of 38.8 Degrees.

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Thanks Andrew.  I have had 0.34" thus far in Overland Park.

Gary

any chance the precip pivots and forms a "comma head" ?

It seems like we've had more wet weather this year compared to the last few.  How many precipitating events have we had this year?  How does that compare to previous years?

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We are above average since the pattern began, at least what we call the LRC, on October 7th or 8th.  But, only a little bit above last year.  The big difference is that this year we are near a "long term" longwave trough, likely centered just east of us between Kansas City and St. Louis.  This allows storm systems to intensify as they approach us.  And, this allows our region to have more frequent precipitation events.  I thought this would be the case as the pattern was forming.

Gary

Gary,

Isn't this sleet aloft when you get radar returns that are that intense? Its just melting and becoming rain at the surface correct? Very interesting little dynamic system and fun to watch for what its worth....

Jon

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Jon,

It is likely some sleet and snow aloft.  But, the lower 5,000 feet are above freezing, so it is mostly just large rain drops. 

Gary

Gary:

Are the winds starting to turn out of the east? I have east facing windows and for a long time there were dry now there wet, radar seem to be showing the band lifting more to a east-west orientation instead of north- south...in a weird way this reminds of the October surprise I know its not the same but the way the precip is this morn and the radar trends...lol

Jon,

I think your right, because the radar's storm total estimated precip is 2"-3" of Rain!! Way off!

do you folks (or Gary) think it will rain this afternnoon around 3-4?  In Lees Summit?

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It is just one band of precipitation this afternoon.   It is timed for around 3 or 4 PM.

Gary

Now up to  0.34"

OMg.Forgot to ask.What do you think the temps will be this afternoon? Thanks Gary this blog is great its like having you in my pocket! My own personal weatherman.My friends will be soooo jealous

I am not gonna say where I got this info, but I read some where that the La Nina has peaked out and the pacific is warmer, so in effect the NAO that was so Neg in December won't be near as bad. This article also went on to say that zonal flow instead of an amplified pattern was more than likely...then it said the euro model way more accurate and the gfs was always so out there...Gary is this right do you see this too, I am not trying to start nothing b\c I am sure most of you know where I read this I just wanted Gary's opinion b\c I really buy in to the LRC and if what that said was true then I'm kinda bummed.

Just checked my gauge and have 0.70 inches with it still spitting some.  This is in western KCK around 123rd and Hollingsworth.

I had some big raindrops hitting my windshield that had some snow in it......you could see them quite well in the heavy bands of rain.  I was driving I-70 towards KC this morning.  When I got to 435 I started getting the big drops with the little bit of snow hitting my windshield.  

Did anyone else get a 'goofy' forecast text this morning?  Mine was an exact repeat of yesterday's forecast:  "High Pressure to our south sends warmer winds our way.  High 48."

Obviously I knew this wasn't correct when I walked outside ... the textcaster must be having a bad day! ******** Melissa, that was my fault.  I got caught up in the forecast and didn't get around to textcaster until 6:05 am but by then the old forecast went out. Brett

Hi,
Since I'm at work, I can't check the rainfall totals other than by radar.  And I'm really wondering if it's right?  What I'm reading is over by the stadiums, or north Raytown, 2.5 inches aprox? Seems like a lot for a short event?
Kristi or anyone, be curious to hear your totals.
Glad to have the water, the ground got so dry last year that we really need these gentle soakings to get down deep into the soil.

dryslot, lol... you have a catch 22... where ever you are, means it's not going to rain :0)

Renee

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Renee,

The heaviest rainfall amounts have been around 1/2 inch.

Gary

Stormwyndd (renee)  very funny..Well done!

I went into my room last night and my daughter had left the TV on and one of the other forecasts was on at 9.  He showed the strong Pacific flow off the California coast on satellite and said that he expects a strong warm up in the next 7-10 days.  

That sounds the complete opposite of the forecast here.  

I just find it fascinating that 2 different weather teams can really have such a different long range outlook.  
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We go through this every single time.  That forecast will be wrong, and our forecast will be right. A very strong cold front will move through by Wednesday and then there are more to follow with storm systems.   There will be a one day warm up ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. 

Gary

Stephen, I don’t expect to see a big change quickly.  It’s all relevant.  Some sources jump way too much on teleconnections and anomalies.  Let’s keep it in perspective.  We are talking about a relatively slow change in ocean temperatures where mean temperatures are about a degree either way of norm.

La Nina started really, at the end of last summer.  That was awhile back.  So, any changes happening now will be very gradual and take some time.  Every forecaster has a crutch for long range forecasting.  Be it this teleconnection tied to another and some weird calculation, or even the LRC.  It all goes to who you trust as I don’t believe there is a universal answer as how to do it or what is most reliable.

For my money, I would take the LRC over any individual analysis of how the NAO/PNA and La Nino events may intertwine.  That said, optimally…I choose surface trending.

LOL…but that is just me.

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Scott,

It may come down to who you trust.  It definitely comes down to who is right.  And, we will pass yet another test.  But, the next time around we will have to hear the same thing.

Gary

I read the other Guys blog from last night on long range pattern. Have you ever seen the Bud Light commercial when the guy says DUDE. Well if you read it that's what you say, Dude where do you get this stuff from.

I've got large snow flakes mixed in the rain. I know it's not going to pile up, but it looks cool. I need to get a wether station, where can Iget a good one?

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Great to hear!  Keep us updated!

Jeremy

33 degrees near Lawson, and rain just changing over to snow...CLUMPS...not flakes...these clumps are HUGE!

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Thanks for the update!

Jeremy

MTongate, I just went over and read his blog....... wow.  

This is going to get interesting.  

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We go through this everytime!  It is going to be interesting, but I think you guys are ready know what will happen.  Not that other forecast.

Gary

Well thanks guy's I suppose you all are right, this same source seems to be wrong all the time, so I should have known.....the models still hang on for a chance of this afternoon I can't wait for the band to develop will be fun track..and i'm off today...Thur is a good day to be off this year for some reason..

i think this storm is getting ready to form a comma head, it seems to be pivoting and building back now across I-70....or wishful thinking but lets see

It has changed over to all snow at 10am. It is actually very pretty watching it come down outside. It sure caught my student's attention when it changed over.

LOL

I love that confidence Gary!!!  

That is what I am talking about!

Well I trust the LRC, I have gotten in trouble on the other blog for just posting a blurb about it.  

Gary- I have an LRC question. Can/has the pattern shifted north or south, keeping the same pattern but just shifting?

My weather station is now showing 32 degrees and the snow is really coming down...accumulating as slush, just as Nick in St Joe predicted yesterday! HA!

Gary we all know you will be right, It just so funny how the "other guy" makes himself look, is he eligible for retirement

Leave the "other forecasters" for their blogs.  I personally don't care what they say, because frankly I don't believe anything they say.  I actually watch other stations off and on to get a comparison, but come here to get the real information.  Not going off on anyone here, just saying we know what not to expect from them, which isn't much, so it's a broken record to talk about it.

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I'm with you on this one.  Everyone knows where to get their favorite forecast and where to compare. 

Jeremy 

Goodmorning everyone! I just came from St Joe and tried to bring the snow with me, but when I stopped in Platte City, I think it got out the door, lol..So probably no snow for the south part of KC..    :( sorry!

It's 10:50 a.m. in Maryville, and it's still spitting snow.  I'd say we have a half an inch or so...salt trucks are out...

More of the same for the Great Northwest...If this is the 'calm' portion of the LRC, I wonder what the stormy part will bring later this month??  :s

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Thanks for the report!  The active part of the weather pattern means the weather time will get very little sleep:)

Jeremy

All SN to SN+ since about 0930 hrs temp 32.5 slush on the gras and on the streets. . . looking at the radars it appears to be back building so the slush could get white f the rate stays up or the temp drops to 30 or 31.  Really a close one I expect ten miles north uit is white.  The rain snow radars have us painted as rain.  Ares shaded are turning white.  

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Thanks for the report.  Keep us updated on your accumulation.

Jeremy

Hmmm, my trip to Dallas just looks worse and worse every GFS run.  Could it be that I leave on Jan 24th and return on the 26th and that somehow relates 54 days back to a prior storm?  Surely not.  Looks like a real DEEP FREEZE here and maybe an ice storm down south, sure hope that's just snow.  Anyway, no one can forecast that far in advance...lol.

40.6 Degrees here:

Go to:

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/kansascitystore.htm

to find some great weather stations.

"The active part of the weather pattern means the weather time will get very little sleep:)"

Jeremy,

I think you mean team,not time!!

does anyone know where the rain\snow line is roughly

Changed over to all snow for about the last hour here. BY the way, here is in Holt, Mo north of Kearney.We have light snow and a light dusting.

Big time mix coming down here in Grain Valley

Raining here at 130th and State Ave since about 730. I have recorded .74 as of 11:15. Even if I don't get any snow today I will still be happy with the rain we got today.

Bryan

It ended here as fast as it started, got about 30seconds of a mix

Still snowing in St. Joseph. Huge flakes coming down fast at the moment. Some of the flakes are almost half dollar size. Almost looks like mini snowballs falling. Grass is just about completly covered. I don't know what the roads look like at the moment since my classroom is on the backside of the building. I would guess they have to atleast be slushy at the rate the snow is falling. It is beautiful!

Jeremy..when the weather gets exciting, you know you all are not the only ones not getting sleep.  When we have a storm, you can get on this blog at 4AM and find someone commenting.

LOL

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And we love those comments!  Brett or myself are here early and the reports really help!

But I hear what you are saying:)

Jeremy

My first ever post!  I have watched Gary faithfully since 1992--HUGE fan!

Snow is covering the grass and streets in Cameron.  Steady rain turned to chunky snowfall around 10:40 am--the most ginormous snowflakes I think I have ever seen!  That lasted for about a half hour.  Now we just have a beautiful, "normal" steady snow.

It won't stick for long, but sure changes up the scenery for this time of year!  
LOVin' it!

still just rain over here by worlds of fun and 37 degrees

Anyone up there in St Joe getting pictures of the "half-dollar" size flakes? I've never seen flakes <i>that</i> big before :-D

It's been all rain here in south Raytown.  It looks like we have gotten a nice amount.  I am unable to give an amount since the rain gauge is up for the winter. :(  I really need a weather station for the house and yard.

Kristi

I admit that I was commenting on the blog at 4 AM Tues. :)  I was following the storms down in southern MO.

Kristi

We've had nothing but rain at my house.  I have no idea how much, though, because I forgot to put away my guage and now it's cracked.  Oh well.  If only I could have gotten that weather station that I asked for for Christmas.  

Kristy, do you not have kids? is that how you can stay up all night?

rain starting to change to snow in lawrence!!

there is a new blog up

I too admit blogging at 4am..  but hey... soo interesting just cant' stay away.

Watching for the flakes to fall in KCK

Stacy

jgrossman, glad to see you post. My parents live in Hamilton, so your comments will be helpful to me.

Someone asked about a weather station earlier... Radio Shack has them, although probably not at the best prices.  Mine is a LaCrosse... wireless... uses HeavyWeather software connected to the PC to record history, and does rain, wind, barometer, temp, etc. I like it quite a bit, it is right around $100 - you can find them lots of places on the internet.

I'm showing about 0.4" rain in Olathe so far. The temp is a bunch of dashes - I think the transmitter is due for a new battery.

Still snowing in Holt,Mo.Looks good, but not really sticking vary well.Can anyone tell me where to get a good wether station?

If you're looking for a weather station, I noticed that Sam's Club in Lenexa had a lot of them after Christmas, but not sure if they're still available.  Prices were good too.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the temp drop 1 degree and the winds start from the NW.  Maybe, just maybe the temp will drop enough for all snow on this next band of precipitation.

Any chances of a messy commute this evening?

That was me who asked about the weather station,thanks for the info.

Good afternoon Jeremy,

So far we received 0.10 inches in the rain gauge here in my backyard.

Ray
East Lawrence

Thanks for the update!