Good afternoon bloggers,
We are issuing an ARCTIC AIR WATCH for the second half of January! More on the build up of some very cold air across Canada in just a moment. But, first snow is likely over about half of the viewing area this afternoon.
Snow is now falling in the new band of precipitation moving in from the northwest. It will track east and a bit southeast pivoting across our local region this afternoon. It should be well off to the east by around the evening rush hour. There is already around 1 inch accumulation of snow near Maryville in Nodaway county. The area northwest of Topeka is the area we will watch closely. It may only barely get as far south as the south side of the metro area. Once again, the areas farther south have the least likelyhood of getting this band. Look below at the noon radar image.
Now, let's look ahead. According to the LRC we should be going back into the same part of the weather pattern, that produced our cold and wet December, in about a week. The stormier part of the pattern should arrive a week or so after the first very cold surge. And, no shock to us even though it is absolutely fascinating, it is now showing up on every mid range model including the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models. Look below at this mornings 168 hour map. This is just the beginning, as stronger Arctic air masses are forecast to develop between day 7 and day 15. It will likely be colder this time than in December, and the storm systems will also likely be a bit stronger. But, they aren't showing up yet. This is where the LRC is our huge advantage in forecasting. We "know" that it is coming. And, now so do you:
The second map below is also valid next Thursday morning. Look how cold the GFS is forecasting it to get, and this is due north of us. 30 to 40 degrees below zero air. I am not sure if a true Arctic blast will come down, but we will be dealing with this for about a month. The cold air will get pushed in and out of here as the storm systems move by between January 20th and February 20th. And, remember this will be coming back again around mid March for one last winter finale.
We will be tracking this interesting winter development for the next few days and weeks. In the mean time let us know if you see any snowflakes. Have a great day!
Tonight on NBC Action News we will be covering these weather developments. If you have any ideas for the weathercasts we welcome any and all suggestions! We will try to answer as many of your comments as possible today.
Gary