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I sure hope you guys are right but I'm just not seeing it in the long range models. Every time theres a run that looks like it may get cold [ surface temperatures -10 C or below ] the next run comes in warmer. Although, this does bode better for snow as there is not as much cold air for storms to undercut.

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This is the weather pattern and this year's LRC in a nutshell.  The chance of a true Arctic blast and Arctic outbreak is there, but just as a very cold air mass forms the stormy pattern will likely return.  This could prevent an all out Arctic outbreak this season, but it won't prevent the Arctic air from making it into the United States.  This is why we will likely have some rather big snowstorms near by between January 20th and February 20th.

Gary

hi gary... not weather related, but always wondered how it is you sounded like you are in the studio during your morning broadcasts on BZ. now i know i guess since you kinda talked about this morning. you must have quite a setup at your house with the broadcast equipment, and assume you have several computers too with all the work you do.

is it safe to finally wash the car again??? you can't tell my car is blue anymore! have a great day! - mike t.

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Mike,

Yes, we talked about my hot tub today on KMBZ.  I have all of the equipment at my house.  But, I just use the computer. All of the weather information you need now a days is sitting there at your keyboard.  This is why I get a blog done almost every morning in between weathercasts on Newsradio 980 KMBZ.

Gary

I was so discouraged when I saw your winter forecast back in November with 19",
even though that is close to normal.. LOL wanted to see 30-50".  
You gave very detailed explanations on the three main storm tracks, looks like the best one for us amplified?  That's fine with me!  Alot of people in the viewing area may struggle to reach 19", while just to the north and west 20-50" may be possible, as Topeka is over 17" already, I was shocked when I saw that!  Even KCI is starting to add up, this winter has been really exciting this year, with what your LRC is pointing to is down right awesome.   This blog has kept me very entertained on my vacation to say the least.  Thanks!  

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We are so glad that the blog is useful for you.  It is a great way to communicate our thoughts, keep the bloggers entertained, and most importantly educate the weather enthusiasts out there, and create a forum to discuss weather issues.

And our 19 inch forecast may still happen at KCI.  I will be surprised if it doesn't go over that number. 

Gary

Gary I noticed on the 06z GFS run their is a good amount of moisture for a snow storm on the 17th and it's farther south of where the storms have been trending.  I see you have 20% chance of snow right now.  Are you not buying into the models because of the LRC, do you think it will hit too far south of us, and/or is it just too early to tell?  Thanks again.

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We must watch this upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada early next week.  The European model digs it in harder and west of us which would provide this opportunity for snow.   I favor this solution as it fits better with what happened the last time through, which was not a big storm.  Just a little more digging and we could see some snow later next week.

Gary

holy moly!  Scott and Gary now I know what the 1959-60 winter was.  Those numbers would be quite nice.

Top five snowiest winters ever recorded in Kansas City:                                                                        
1) 67.0” in 1911-1912
2) 58.5” in 1959-1960
3) 55.0” in 1961-1962
4) 42.4” in 1925-1926
5) 38.6” in 1898-1899

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Yes, but this pattern isn't exactly the same.  There are similarities to where storm systems tracked though.  It will be interesting as in 1959-60 more than 40 of those inches fell after January.

Gary

Am I reading the GFS long ranger right (500-1000mb) from about 336 hr all the way through 384 showing moisture on top of us, however it looks like Iowa's really getting hammered in that one.  Either way long time for it to be hanging around us.

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Yes, but that is the 336 hour to 384 hour forecast.  Remember the models make errors in the first 6 hours.  By 24 to 36 hours the errors are compounding on top of each other, and by day 7 the models will be quite a bit off on many features.  At the same time, it can still be used to forecast trends if you believe that the pattern is being forecast correctly.  This is where the LRC comes in big time.  That 336-384 hour will be wrong, but it probably isn't that far off.

Gary

gee and what a surprise, it's on a weekend too!  

Here is another interesting stat.  Looking at it slightly differently, In CALENDAR year 2007 Topeka had 26.4 inches of snow.  This was the most in a calendar year since at least prior to 1996.  By comparison, calendar year 2006 had only 1.7 inches of snow!  What a difference a year has made!  It looks like 2008 may get off to a good start here in Topeka if this year's LRC repeats as Gary is forecasting!

Mike

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Mike,

That is really the stat of the day!

Gary

10.7" So far for Olathe.


Again! It happens, Weather Plus is off the air, and so is Kshb-dt. Last night at 10pm it was fine!! I miss Weather PLUS!!! :(

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Andrew,

Thanks for the report.  We will look into the WeatherPlus problem.

Gary

Last day of Kansas City Live. :( But more weather. :) But still it's sad. :(

Andrew are you trying to pickup HD signals with an indoor antenna?  If so, good luck, because I haven't found one that works, even the powered ones.  I've been told that outdoor antennas are the way to go for HD signals, because you either get it or you don't, no fuzzy stuff like analog.  Regardless, I just use it as a backup, since I have a Time Warner DVR, which is another story.

I figure some people on here might find this article interesting about Space Weather and how we're at the beginning of an 11 year CYCLE of solar storms from the sun.  Supposedly mid-2011 could cause a lot of problems.  Cycles and weather, that's the first I've ever heard someone talk about that...lol

http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/438026.html

I have a Outdoor Antenna.

Tick tock, just like clockwork.  The models are coming around.

***************

The 12Z GFS for January 23 screams to me, hello December 1-2!

Jeremy

Well that's strange you don't get a signal with an outdoor model.  Andrew go to this site and it should greatly help you with your HD signal problems:
http://www.crutchfieldadvisor.com/I-rEUPcUHH/learningcenter/home/M-UG479/antenna.html

Good morning Gary and weather team.

The snow amount for my area of Grandview is setting at 9 inches for the year.

Have a great day and weekend.    By they way, I told the kids last night that you had issued an "Artic Air Watch" and the response was...   OHHH it's going to snow again.....

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Snow days may be ahead!  Thanks for the total.  We are adding these to the list.

Gary

Funny thing is it's only 41.1 and 41.2, the rest of the DTV Channels come in fine.

We have a big antenna up in the attic. There's some website you can go to that tells you where to point it, which we did.  We just got an HD TV, and it will now tune to lots of local HD stations, including 41-1 - an amazing picture!

Gary, I'm not sure how much snow we have received so far in Kingsville, but I'm pretty sure it was way less than Pleasant Hill. For the season I think 5, maybe 6 inches at the most. Far cry from what we had last year, but trying to be optimistic that we get nailed in February!!

Jeremy - It does indeed.

Iraq has now seen more snow this winter than Brent, haha

Thanks Gary, tell me what you found when info comes in. I hope it's your problem and not mine (or my parents).

Andrew, not having any problems here in Olathe on my end, wierd!  Sometimes I have slow motion, but that is the provider probably.  By that time, I almost have the whole show burned in my mind....lol.
Braysmama and I think one of the Brents down south, if I were you I would be frustrated too... Last year I was an hour north of Olathe and it was so frustrating. The thing is alot of the storms know exactly where they are going once the LRC sets up.   Its like an invisible train track in the atmosphere, Its amazing, but very frustrating when its only an hour from you!  Hopefully a few will track a bit further south for you, it wouldn't hurt us in Olathe either... LOL.   I feel for you!  You will get more snow though, that's a given.

Baghdad even gets snow as South Metro areas still wait? Goodness whats with that?

For those of you interested, heres a link to NWS-Springfield tornado report and tracks from Monday nite's storms ..

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=010808_tornadoes

Its amazing at the nightmare that must have been...

Brett34-I sure hope your right! It's amazing to see the shift in the snow/no snow line. Last year we had 25 inches-so far this year just 5 or 6. I'm thinking in February we will get a couple good snowstorms down here, even if they are only 4-6 inch storms-I'll be happy.  :)

Apparently, Accuweather.com is following Gary and the LRC.  Checkout accuweather.com for Kansas City and look at the 11-15 day forecast.  Cold and snow!!

http://www.accuweather.com/forecast3.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&zipcode=64101&metric=0

N2 - it is the power of the Brent affect.  Still unproven, but evident by all!

LOL

I wouldn't go that far with Accu.  Even a blind squirrel will find a nut sometimes.

Gary,

Signal strength starting to gain. It freezes, and has slow motion, and then goes off the air, but it's improving slowly.

"brent affect".......please explain this to me?......

Someone asked if I shovel the driveway on the last blog...and yes, I shovel my own driveway...I find it to be a good workout....

another good reason for it to snow a lot, soon


its 43 now....this is January...it should be cold enough for snow whenever the moisture is available...we had over 1.6 inches of rain that could have been snow...I am starting to think that will be the problem later this winter....the temperatures will be just too warm for the southern areas to see all snow...

But......I will wait a little longer....theres not much winter left.....

lol some of you will oppose me on that last statement......\

Brent

Brent,

LOL, during the winter is when I get most my exercise!!

Brent,

LOL, during the winter is when I get most my exercise!!

Gary,

Looks like everything is back to normal for now! Don't know what happened. Maybe it because my weather stations wind sensor is hooked on the antenna.

weather plus should be on local cable...

I bought a HD reciever...but it makes everything more complicated to turn on....

I am anxious to see how the forecast pans out between Jan. 25th and Feb. 20th.  It ought to be interesting if it does. :)

Kristi

Hey there Kristi!  I am so sorry, I meant to drop you a note Wed about the storm chase pics from Monday.  Very few were worth the time (and speed!) I spent Monday but I did post a pic from the back side of the storm in Lowry City about 3 pm Monday.  You can see it on NBC's home page under Winter Weather Slide show.  The first picture is of a pine tree when we had freezing fog here the week before Christmas and the very next pic is of the the Storm Monday.  Sorry it took me a while!  Take care, Jim in Clinton

Hey Gary.....any chance of another ice storm for those of us south of Kansas city?.....if that one storm that gave us between 1 and 3 inches of rain cycles back...we could be in for something big!...lots of snow...or ice...if the temp is just a bit  colder this time......or does the LRC not work like that?

“this is January...it should be cold enough for snow whenever the moisture is available...we had over 1.6 inches of rain that could have been snow...I am starting to think that will be the problem later this winter....the temperatures will be just too warm for the southern areas to see all snow...”

Brent, let me address some of this.

1. The average temperatures for January are 40 degrees for a high and 22 degrees for a low.  Assuming that for 30-40% of the day we are above freezing [factoring in a rough guess for sunlight/warming], then only a bit more than half the time is it naturally cold enough for snow.  That said, temperature and moisture is not enough for snow to occur.  You need upper air mechanisms to lift and activate the process.  So...it is a bit more complex than just having temps and moisture.  Also consider while it might be cold enough at the surface for snow, it is quite possible for WAA to bring upper levels over the freezing point, thus reducing your snow amounts as well.
2. When did you get your 1.6 in of rain?  Just in January?  If so, you are about double the rain than has been recorded at Pleasant Hill.  That isn’t too far from you is it?  The average rainfall for KMCI in January is a little over an inch of liquid rainfall..so you are getting more than your share of liquid rain, but still have potential to meet or exceed the normal January snowfall totals.
3. As far as temperatures being too warm..who knows.  Often storms to be good snowmakers, they need to bring their own cold air.  So…it’s a bit too early to know how it will all pan out exactly.  Because of the longwave this year, you might be right on being on the light side.  But, because you are on the warm side of the longwave, you may be in store for a far more active Spring season.  Can we use your house as a setup area for chasing this Spring?  ;-)

"The average temperatures for January are 40 degrees for a high and 22 degrees for a low"

I thought it was 35 for a high and 17 for a low?

"When did you get your 1.6 in of rain?  Just in January? "

just  from the last two storms.

" Can we use your house as a setup area for chasing this Spring?  ;-) "


sure...lol I love storms...

Brent

Hey Scott,

I just took the poll on your blog...nice question!  lol.

I have been meaning to register too, just haven't had the time yet.  Also, I love the new graphic...can't wait to see how close you are.

Fred

WOW, this past week has been weird weather central!!!
At least this time there was finally some weird weather that seemed to bring good feelings, in a region of the world that needs them the most, rather than the destruction back here in the states.  Did you guys here about the tornado that hit Vancouver WA.?
When the storm systems come back around, this should be their strongest versions due to time of year? If so we are in for a long wild ride.  Considering that we only got about an inch of snow yesterday, it is hanging around pretty well, oh sure it is melting but there are still good areas of it.

Brent--

I definitely think you are going to get some snow down in Harrisonville...just like I am going to get some in Blue Springs.  

I can't wait!

Fred

Blue springs has had a lot more than Harrisonville has!

why do you think that Fred?

Brent - you are right with the temps..not sure where I got that.  LOL..

How about 38-20.  That is from  http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

Is the storm system coming in on Thursday going to have a lot of precip or not...It has warmed up very nice today...I cant wait for the stormy cold weather to return with avengence!

Brent,

I believe Weather PLUS is on Cable.

oh...I only got it when I got my HD reciever...never got it before that....

Hey everybody!  This weather is not good right now.  I'm going to snow creek tonight with my ROTC corp, and this warm weather is not fun when you go to snow creek.  This is going to be kinda bad because it's going to be more like water skiing instead of snow!  LOL.  Oh well.  I will wave to all of you on NBC Action News at 5,6, and 10 when Gary shows the snow creek skyview camera!  LOL.  Anyway, I can't wait until next week for the cold air!  It's going to be wonderful!  Hope we get atleast some snow over the next few weeks.  I'm not looking foreword to a "harsh winter" in the way of precipitation anyway.  I think it IS going to get rather cold and very soon.  The GFS really blasts us with cold air next week, and I mean BLASTS!  Keep your fingers crossed so it will happen.  I'm still not sure about the storm system though.  I'm not confident about it at all yet.  We'll see.

Well "my school" has been tracking my blog account and has seen everything I have ever written on this blog.  Even the things I have typed at home.  How in the world they figured all that out is beyond me!  They got on to me about the fact that my "personal information" is on the blog.  My name....aahhhh...never mind.  They told me I can't put personal information on here at school.  My principal even printed like five pages of information from the district handbook about all the types of rules on this.  In my deffence...I rarely put comments on here at school, and I know I never put any "personal information" about myself on here "while I'm at school"...soooo...well I'm done with this.  Ok, bring on the snow!  I'm ready, and so is the entire Kansas City SOUTHERN metro!!!  Let's ride!

PS:  Mrs. Hill if your reading this...not trying to put you down!  Just my opinion of it.

Later everybody!

Jacob...aahhh...that's all.  LOL.

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Jacob,

We will try to show the camera at Snow Creek at 10 PM tonight.

Gary

LOL bring on the 20's!!! next week....

not really an arctic blast.....but cold enough for snow!!!

waiting for wednesday!

New Blog Soon?

Loving what the GFS shows for the 17th-18th.

  No chamce of snow showers on Saturday???

yup.... next thursday!

they took out the snow this weekend...but look to next week!

The cycle is amazing.

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Scott,

Your statements are short today!  And, yes it is amazing.  Are you seeing it better than ever before.  I am just now beginning to think of doing another presentation of the LRC at the Broadcast Conference in Denver/Boulder this summer.

Gary

Gary, what is a good website to use for forecasting national weather out 10 days? I  am leaving to go to Las Vegas by car and I wanted to see what the weather would be like so I could determine which route to take to get there.

Weather.com doesn't really have a good map that gives me this info.

Thanks,
Aimee'

Good late afternoon to the weather team!!!

What a beautifull day it is today-I love snow and cold as much as anyone, but there is just no getting around it-it is beautifull out today!!!

Been pretty busy this week so besides my two massive blogs (LOL) I have not been able to follow much just kind of lurked around-however just a quick report: as  has been noted in the blog, Lawrence did not get much in the way of precip yesterday-the radar in yesterday morning pretty much told the tale there.

Ok, here is another episode of going out on a limb-crack-break!!!! One thing that was present in early December and through a good part of that active part of the cycle was moisture streaming in from the SW Pacific-if I remember correctly, the ice storm and the good snow we got here in Lawrence was enhanced by that moisture feed comming in from SW of the Baja of California. Looking at the latest water vapor imagery, it appears that this set up is again in the process of forming. This may be stuff and non sense (would not be the first time!!!) but in my very humble hobbyist opinion, we may be seeing another sign (in addition to what I think are others I mentioned earlier this week) that we are indeed transitioning into the active part of the cycle.

Another point I think the satelite shows is that while there is a flow comming off the Western Pacific into British Columbia, it is being thawrted pretty readily by a more Northerly flow rotating around in Canada. Another sign!!

Not sure if this makes a lick of sense, but just a couple of things I have noticed. To me, in my hobbyist mind, we are seeing right before our eyes the pattern beginning to reset. Yes, I think it is amazing and like in Polar Express with the bell: I believe!!!!

Have a great night-one can already see on the surface observations the colder air beginning to its descent south for tomorrow. Again, I hope this is at least is on some sort of a correct track!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I don't know if I would use the word "reset", because I believe it is continuously cycling, but maybe you are implying, back to the beginning, and here we go again.  It is fascinting to watch, because I am finally showing that it is not a coincidence. 

The moisture from the Pacific will come into play later in the month.

Gary

Can't wait for this day to end!! Today has been a Sad Day, and a Happy day.

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Andrew,

But it's Friday so it is a great day!  Stay positive and have a good weekend. 

Gary,

Is it going to snow a foot or more anytime soon. I am really hoping for a snow day at school. Thanks for being the most accurate weather person in Kansas City.


Abby Stuke
7th grader
westridge middle school
Lenexa, Kansas

Gary, we have had about a grand total of 4 1/2-4 3/4 of snow so far this season :(... I wish it was like last year because by this time we already had close to 20 inches!!!:)  Any hope in the near(or far)  future for at least one good snow fall down here?  

"What if there was one weather site that had live chat, live nowcasting with interaction to the readers, personalized forecasts for travel, and weekly/monthly forecasts? Would you be willing to pay for this?"

Scott,

Use freewebs.com , I use it for my website:

www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather

Best of all it's FREE!

Hey Gary.....any chance of another ice storm for those of us south of Kansas city?.....if that one storm that gave us between 1 and 3 inches of rain cycles back...we could be in for something big!...lots of snow...or ice...if the temp is just a bit  colder this time......or does the LRC not work like that?

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Brent,

Those storm systems will very likely be back.  At least one of them shoud be a very wet one.  Will it be snow, sleet, ice, or rain?  We don't know yet. But, there is a lot of cold air about ready to be available for these storm systems.

Gary

Gary, the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes nearby that we experienced last week are pretty rare around these parts this time of year. I was wondering if you looked back to previous years to see how many times there were similar outbreaks, and how those winters stacked up snowfall wise? If the weather cycles in 45-60 day patterns wouldn'nt it also go through cycles over many years or decades for that matter? I hope this question makes sense.

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The cycle length means absolutely nothing when it comes to if you are in the storm track, like we are this year.  We just happen to be near a long term longwave trough and storm systems are intensifying right here.  This will continue quite frequently through winter and spring into summertime.

Gary

gary, did you get my reply?

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Murph,

Yes, and I sent it home to read this weekend.  If you haven't heard back from me by Tuesday, then you may need to resend it.  I am pretty sure it is at home right now.

Gary

is there going to be a new blog soon?

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Not tonight!   I am just wiped out.  I have had a 15 hour work day and it isn't over yet.

Gary

Gary:

That is exactly what I meant to say!!! I need to quit trying to Blog when I am on the run like I was earlier as my entries are a more confusing than normal LOL!! This is for sure incredibly fascinating to watch unfold!!! I have to say it: This is Tight!!!!

Have a great evening

Bill in Lawrence

Andrew, if you have a comment on something in my blog...leave it there and I will answer you there.

Thanks.

The fact that it snowed in Baghdad is awesome! I think it just goes to show that Mother Nature has her own agenda, and will often do what she wants, when she wants, no matter what you expect! =)

For those of you interested in learning more about the stormy weather the midwest experiences and how to identify some of the storm's features, be sure to check out the date and time for the National Weather Service's Storm Spotter Training for your location.  This is free to attend, takes around 2 hours and is very interesting!  The calendar is posted online and start very soon!  

let me guess, new blog at 10 pm?

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Not tonight Brent, I am too tired.

Gary

The GFS is really annoying me today.
It has the very cold arctic air just to the north almost then entire time in the extended range.
It seems like the pattern has to be perfectly alligned in order for KC to actually get a true arctic blast.
The battle between the north/south in terms of arctic air during the next 2 weeks will be interesting to watch.

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CentralOP,

The battle will begin and then go on for about a month.  So, just relax.  Don't let the GFS get to you.  The last time through the cycle we didn't get an Arctic blast, so until one really starts showing up let's just let this pattern be what it is.  It will still get very exciting, I promise.

Gary

Silly GFS is still stuggling with the vort location on the 17/18th.  Doesnt it know it is suppose to go over Joplin?

LOL

1 hours till it's Saturday!! Maybe I'll be able stop thinking about KCL. I still see the last images from today as everybody said goodbye.

Gary,
I will take a break from looking at the models for a little while. LOL I know we will go into the colder part of the pattern soon so I am confident on a few snow events this month. The strong ridge in the Pacific looks good overall.
CentralOP