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I'm looking forward to some exciting weather!   The break has been nice.  The rain washed much of the leftover grime away.  Now it's time for some nice, REAL snow falls (6+ inches with the emphasis on the  + !!!!)  I've been learning so much from the blog and am facinated by the accuracy of the LRC.   I even do some looking ahead on my own based on the patterns.  It's so much fun!   Having an incredibly accurate weather team who take the time to teach and share their skills is awesome.  Thanks for all you guys do!

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And thank you for participating and learning from the NBC Action Weather blog.  This year's LRC is fascinating, but every year has been fascinating.  It is just that we are having more consistent weather excitement.  If you have any questions let  us know.

Jeff

The ride is about to get more intense again, WOW it is really neat to see the GFS show that jet slamming down into the conus. again!!!

yeah 6 inches would be nice......3 of those would do me for this winter....

I just can't wait for the arctic blast!...the other stations have 50's and 60's all week!..even into next thursday they have 50's!....we'll see who's right...haha

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Brent,

Why even quote that other forecast?  It is so ridiculous.

Jeff

If this pattern verifies like this, it does sort of repeat from the fall as previously posted past charts here showed.   Snow flakes fell in the low hills of southern California in the fall from that pattern.  Low elevation snowflakes could fall in California with this pattern, too, though amounts would be very light in most areas..  For our area, though, a major storm could develop if these long range prognostications pan out.. and the pattern is sort of a more intense version of that which occurred in the fall.  

I would not say it proves anything, but it will be interesting to see how this current pattern evolves and compare it with the fall pattern that evolved remarkably similarly.

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We think the evidence will be so overwhelming, but does it prove the LRC?  A lot more work has to be done.  Gary is working hard at figuring out causes, etc. but I think the forecasts that we have made will only help show that the LRC exists.

Gary thought on this second time through this part of the pattern that it would be more intense on the cold.  This is where the LRC helps and then utilizing other factors such as knowing that the jet stream reaches its peak strength near the end of January.  You factor that into the late November and Decmeber pattern and we thought it would be even colder.  It hasn't happened yet though.  We will know soon.

Jeff

    Hello Jeff,  No accumulations a dusting or anything with the flurries today, and Monday?

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No, we are still uncertain of even flurries, but some low clouds are likely going to move in with temperatures dropping below freezing later today.

Jeff

Gary I have an LRC question,

when you determine about what time the cycling storms will return...do you have any idea how much precipitation will occur with the storm?....will the amount be generally the same as the storm it correlated to earlier in the winter?...or are there so many factors that the precip from the first of storm  (decmber 10th and 11th) would be 2 inches...and that same storm when it returned in february would only yield .25 inches of precip?

thanks

Brent

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Brent,

Gary is taking a little break today so I will answer it for him.  Remember the storm systems Christmas week?  Those storm systems the last time through the cycle went across the northern United States and left us dry.  This time through they produced snow because the jet stream was farther south, even though the pattern was still the same.  The point is different things can happen each time through the cycle.  However, the December 1st through December 21st storm systems, the series of four storms, produced some heavier precipitation.  We see a strong chance that they will produce as much this time through.  The big question, and this could help you down south, is will it be colder this time with more Arctic air than the last time through the cycle.  We think it very well may be and this could result in at least one big snowstorm.  At the same time we are concerned it could still hit those same areas leaving you frustrated.  The hope, though, is with deeper cold air in place maybe the snowstorm would be more widespread and farther south.  Start dreaming.

Jeff

Does anyone have the lowest high for this winter so far?  I am sure we will beat it next Saturday as it is our anniversary and I'm pretty sure the coldest day of winter every year.  At least it is sunny today!! I've been slammed at work this last week and haven't had any time to read the blog.  Does anyone know how much rain we got recently?  My rain guage broke from the water in the bottom freezing.  Sorry about all the questions today.   Audrey

Brent, based on the LRC - I would say it is not feasible on that alone to determine any type of precip amounts - trends maybe.  Even in my surface trending, its very tough.  Often, I will take an average of the last few cycles for a particular storm, and start from there.

Remember, winter is the season with least amount of ready moisture in the atmosphere for this area, so without some driving forces such as vorticity, PVA or other means of lift, frontogenesis, and other forcing mechinisms, its hard to get it out.  Spring time with the jet retreating, allows for more Gulf moisture to stream northward...so I would expect more precip as we get further into the year...

But also remember..even with less moisture, because of the temps...if snow is available, with rain to snow ratios averaging 8-10 to one, it doesn't take much moisture to provide some good snow.

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Scott,

I don't really agree with you.  With this pattern, if the December storm systems are as strong as they were the last time through, then the Gulf of Mexico would be wide open and full of moisture availability.  The only way it wouldn't be is if one of these Arctic airmasses blasted through the Gulf coast.

Jeff

Jeff:
The NWS pointed to something I thought was strange, they said that on our next system could produce light snow SOUTH of I-70 do you see that too?

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The next real system is around Wednesday or Thursday.  The latest GFS would suggest only flurries, but a portion of the energy may dive in farther west like the Canadian model and the European model.  This would produce a better chance of snow.  When it is four to five days out, picking north or south of I-70 is tough. Those models do have it south of I-70.  If you looked back to the forecasts in December other forecasts thought the heaviest snow would be south, and it ended up north each time. 

Jeff

Jeff, I should have better explained myself.  I was speaking in general terms for winter behavior.  I think we both would agree that typically in the winter time, moisture is not as readily available, and what is there normally needs some help to fall out of the sky.  

As it relates to this specific part of the cycle, we will agree to disagree.  I believe in this specific part of the cycle [amplified phase from the 24th on], our moisture is streaming in more from the baja.  Moisture that does come up from the gulf based on the longwave seems to be better maximized in the areas to the south and east of us.

Because of the nature of the troughing near baja, it is these spitting vorts that we saw last time off that max that streamed the moisture in with them.  The only gulf interaction in this area that I observed was more evident when in normal pre storm advection..but I would argue that even then, that wasn't the deepest source of moisture.

I would agree with you regarding how the depth of cold air mass may affect this.  I still am holding on to the shallow, but deep and cold air mass.  I don't know that this shelf I am thinking we will get will drastically affect the 700mb moisture transport.  

I am thinking that the depth of the very cold air will generally be around the 800-850mb level down. Deeper than last time.   Granted, this time it does show a bit more support at the 500mb level for sustaining, but even at that level and evaluating the 1000/500 mb thickness, it seems the very cold air is closer to the surface.

Just my thoughts...

stepheninskc,

As we go into a new "phase", remember back to Gary talking about the longwaves.  The amplfied longwave is in a different spot than what we have been experiencing with the zonal longwave.  I fully expect for areas south to get in more of the action.

I will defer the full explanation to Jeff as he knows far more about the longwave locations per phase than I do.

Is it likely that the Alberta clipper that went to our north will repeat to help put more snow on the ground in the upper Midwest..I think that system helped because it added snow to the ground therefore cooling temps and adding moisture later on, it helped to induce a great temp contrast and helping storms ...

thanks for answering my question Jeff and Scott....I guess I am not in good luck...one more snowstorm  just doesn't seem to exciting to me now...it will probably turn out to be a dud anyway...

So it looks like this LRC can only determines WHEN the storms will arrive...not how much, what track it will take, or what moisture is available at the time correct?

which means...that this next cycle of storms may take a southern side and form the heaviest precip over the southern areas...if its cold enough we could see snow.....I don't see why the storms have to continue to take the same track they did on the last cycle......with the North ending up with all the totals.....don't you think its possible for it to be the opposite this time?.....more snow south?...I don't know..maybe I am just being to hopefull...but its a thought....

does the LRC determine if the cycles of the returning storms have the same track?

say a storm in december takes a track just south of KC...then that same storm comes back in February but tracks over Tulsa?....is that possible?...or am I not getting the concept of the LRC?

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Brent,

We have seen that even if it is colder the storm tracks don't change that much.  But, a bit farther south would benefit you.   The storm systems will still fall into what Gary calls the "long term" long wave positions.  Tulsa has had only 1/2 inch of snow this season, but they only average around 7 or 8 inches a year.  We will see where they track this time.

Jeff

That sounds great to me...Cant wait for winter to kick back into full swing!!

Brent, the LRC accounts for storm tracks by its major feature of longwave determination.  The LRC can also trend precipitation, but I am not sold on its level of detail.  I get the feel it can say high or low...but that is just my take.  That is why I prefer my method, though its not a whole lot better in the weaker events.

Always keep in mind the jet strength and location.  It makes a difference.  Once knowing the long range trend, mid term forecasting picks up the details  All said, if you can dominate the long range and mid range forecast, you are head and shoulders above your peers.  

Is it not enough to know when and where a storm is due and a general sense of its precip trending?  Seems like that is far better than anything else I see going right now.

Hi Jeff:

What will the WX be like on Sunday the 20th of January In the PM.

Thanks,

Barry

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Barry,

It is way too early to time out the cold going in and out of here.  The latest GFS has it very cold with some snow that day.  We will  know more  in a day or two.

Jeff

Jeff:

Good early afternoon to you!! Hope your day is going well!!

Our current temp. is 37 but while on a bike ride, I noticed the winds began to increase from WNW and the clouds are about to move in. I am guessing we have reached our high today and that we will hold steady for a time and then begin to drop in a couple of hours. If you are out in the wind long enough today you will feel it-by about 4:00 today I think it will look and feel like a typical early January day-breezy, cloudy, and cold!!!

This week is going to be awesome to watch unfold-looking at the 0Z GFS and 12Z GFS I wonder if we even get above 43 on Tuesday-it seems the models are beginning to show that the cold air from today and Monday doesn't really mix all the way out before the front moves through. Whatever the case, will be fun as all get out to watch!!! Watching us transition back into the active phase of the cycle is just incredible-seeing it on temp. maps, satelite, and finally the models-it is just Tight!!!!

Have a great afternoon-by later this afternoon I think it will feel like January in Lawrence, Kansas-not really cold, but 34 with a breeze is cold and is after all 5 degrees below normal for the day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

It isn't a big surprise that today's cold front suddenly was a bit stronger.  A second surge on Monday morning could end our hopes of the warmer Tuesday.  Not sure yet, though.

The next week will be fun to watch, as you said.  Then it really should get fun after this week.

Jeff

OK, with things amplified out west for this cycle will the storms form or mature farther west of the area?  

If so will this not let more gulf moisture to mix in with baja moisture and the storms may not be more intense but they will be larger, a 100 mile wide 6-10 in snow band instead of a 50 mile wide band and they will move slower correct?

With the jet shifted that far west we should see some Alberta Clippers or Sascathuwan Schooners [sp] slide south and east and drop 3-6 inches in a 5-7 hr period a time or two.

We must also keep in mind that we do not want severe artic cold, that is why Jan is our driest month with an average of just over one inch of moistrure.  If it gets bitterly cold at all levels there will be no snow.

Just an aside on this date in 1974 St Joseph set its all time record low of -25  . . . I remember it I was in 8th grade, had a paper route it was cold, then at about 0730 hrs I had to walk; well I ran down the street to play city rec basketball at 0800 hrs.  Somethings you never forget. . . you could spit but it would freeze before it hit the ground and your nostrils would freeze together.

I am favoring nice cold temps at 850 and below with some nice 850 vorticity giving some pretty decent snowfalls.

"they will be larger, a 100 mile wide 6-10 in snow band instead of a 50 mile wide band "

I like!

Quite dead for a Saturday...I expected posts to read by now....

Jeff....wait...you have the LRC...The magical LRC.....  It should be easy to respond to Barry with next Sunday.   A safe meteorological bet would have to rely on the LRC....

I don't consider upper 20's then lower 30's an arctic blast....anyone else agree?.....I think we can all agree that we have had colder weather than that  this winter...we got down to 5 degrees one night...and we had a high of 19 once.....that is arctic...I don't consider the 7 day arctic temps....YET!

I haven't lost faith Gary.

Brent

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Brent,

There is a chance we are going too warm on our 7 day, so highs could be 5-8° colder.  Also, this is just the beginning.  Our coldest days will likely come in February.

Jeff

Jeff,

Keep up the good work - the LRC seems to be right on!  You guys leave the other stations in the dust - in fact, one went so far to say that we have seen the coldest that it's going to get, and that it's going to be a mild winter from here on in!

Whose forecast are they following - the NWS, or their own?

Great job, weather Team!

Jeff
Scouter1900

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Thanks for the compliment.  There is almost no doubt that we are in for a month of wintry weather.  The winter precipitation may not get going until the 25th.  I do not know what other forecasters use.  We just know what we know and go with that.

Jeff

I think a lot of people look for temps to go below zero, but really we just don't see that anymore.  So if we get arctic air and temps here only wind up to be in the 20's well that pretty much about right anymore, I don't think you will really see temps in the single digits or below zero for highs, we haven't seen that in a long time and probably won't, I mean tornadoes in January, something is up, global warming or cycles or whatever.

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Stephen,

We may see highs in the teens as we go into February, especially if we get snow cover.  There will even be a chance for 1-2 days to see highs in the single digits.  That being said, yes something is odd about these winter tornado oubtreaks being so far north.  It is not unusual for there to be a January tornado outbreak in the southeast USA.

Jeff

Let's not get into the Global Warming debate again..... even though I want to....

I don't believe in it.... Ok I'm done.

Brent can debate GW for me!!

I wasn't trying to start and Global Warming debate, just saying things don't get as cold as they use to, I don't really buy in to anything just yet...I do buy the LRC though, I think I can pretty much count on that one..

Sorry if this OT for this blog, but is anyone watching the NFC game of the Seahawks vs. Packers?  Maybe it's just me but I love football and snow, and seeing the two together, well that's pretty awesome.

One thing is worring me right now. Today when I went outside for lunch I noticed that the skies were almost downright turbulant with the way the clouds were. I checked SkewT soundings and we do have a situation where the wind is changing speed and direction with height. While we do not have the southerly wind component oh-so-critical to tornadoes, there is a small system to our south that in a spring-time pattern and slight jetstream shift, would probably develop closer to us. In other words, I think that the Kansas City area could be in for excitement around May 17 to May 18 timeframe... especially applying the LRC to this equasion with a +108 day period added to today.

It will be interesting to watch how the weather this week unfolds. Gary's old boss over at 'The Hound' seems to think we will have a warm up late next week...exact opposite of Snow God.

I'm betting my money on Snow God....his accuracy is surpassed only by his passion for the 'sport'.

does anyone see way the upper Midwest will be able to add snow pack, the models are a bit sketchy about that.

Wow, wish I was in Green Bay right now

I wish it was snowing here like it is in Green Bay right now.

I wish it was snowing here like it is in Green Bay right now.

I'm dying watching the seahawks vs the packers!!!!!! the snow is insane!!!!!!!!!!!!!! they can't keep the field warm enough to keep it from sticking because its coming down so hard!


yeah anyone wants to debate global warming email me....lol or pm me....yes there are lots of signs...like warmer winters and such....its all just a ploy though...

Brent

I find it odd.....

that one certain station....is trending from 50's next week......to 30's...into the 20's for highs....I wonder where they pulled that from?...lol....Gary had it first!

The NWS says that the chance for snow is Wednesday night and your forecast calls for snow on Thursday afternoon.  What causes these differences in the forecasts?  Both the NWS and your team use the same sources and models, right?  

if the new models are right it gonna get very cold...right on time...just for fun is the snow in green bay due to a warm air advection event that what the radar looks like, i know it not kc weather but just wanted to see if I was good to pick that out by radar alone..anyone know?

I also find it interesting that every other channel.....

has changed whatever their forecast was....

to highs in the 20's after next wednesday....some even mentioned arctic fronts...

I have to give you credit Gary....you had this a week before anyone else.....

I also have noticed that out of all the channels...you guys fluctuate the least...you don't change the forecast dramatically like the others do everyday.....you change it once a day and make small changes.....your a great weather team!

keep up the great work...and get a snowstorm down here in Harrisonville!

ok just kidding...lol

Brent

While doing some research today I found that most snowy Decembers almost always had a very snowy Feb and sometimes January thats a good sign and helps to support the LRC as well, I would love to talk about global warming is there a blog for that somewhere I wont discuss it in here b\c I don't want to get anyone riled up ... Thx

Okay so I am sitting here recovering from surgery and watching the Green Bay game and wishing I was there.  Oh well if things work out the way they are supposed to, we too will soon be seeing lots and lots of snow!  I sure hope so.  If it is going to be cold then we may as well have snow!  I really hope we get some really heavy snows before this winter is over.  Weather team, great job as always.  Keep up the good work.  No matter who is doing the newscast or the blog we know we always have someone looking out for us!  Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Take all the GW discussion to Brett's blog...he will enjoy that.  ;-)

Sorry for the repeat but simple question I will ask again.  Does anyone have the lowest high for this winter so far?  Again sorry for the annoying questions.

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Bulldog,

It was 19° on the 2nd of January.

Jeff

Brent, I must agree with you 100%.

wheres Bretts blog?.....

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Brent,

 

Go to NBCActionnews blogs & you will find it.

Jeff

Alden....are you agreeing with me...or another Brent around here?....lol

MOMOF3
I agree.  The snow during the Green Bay game was awesome.  I hope it looks like that here in the next week or two.  The middle of the 3rd the snow really began falling heavy.  

When do you think the first good snow for OP is going to be. I'm just asking you to make a longterm prediction. I will not hold you to it, and will only use it as a reference in the future. If you're not sure, just guess.

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Wintertracker,

If I had to make a forecast I would say around the 25th of this month.  If not then, it will likely not be too far off.

Jeff

WinterTracker-

My guess for snowfall in Overland Park will be for Jan 18.

Everyone is saying the 18th.......