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Cold air....but no snow........whats the point?...lol ************* I think the next month will have numerous snow chances. Hang in there. Jeremy

Come on snow!!!!!! *********** The wait may not be that long. The 'active' part of the cycle isn't far away! Jeremy

Sorry I put that in the last blog... Well, well, the plot is thickening, or is it the density of the air in Canada?;)

the last GFS did look more favorable for snow... ************** Let's see if the trend continues. I may add 1 or 2 snow chances to the forecast this PM. The forecast team usually chats after the new info comes in so we stay on the same page. Jeremy

I never look ed at the SREF model before is it any good? anyone? It really gets things cold. ************** I don't use it much personally...but I think Scott can provide some insight from his experience. The cold air is not a surprise to us and we have talked about this for weeks now. Jeremy

I do favor the SREF.  I like the ensemble piece of it.  It has been pretty good this year.  I love the SREF Plume product.  It is experimental, but seems to be pretty good. ************* I should look at these more but focusing on 2-3 models and using the LRC seems to be a good fit for me right now. Using 2-3 models I can usually determine what seasonal biases or tendencies they have. Like this year the NAM has trended the heavy snow areas too far south. Just one observation... Did you notice the longer range GFS is having trouble with the active part of the pattern? Jeremy

Very hard transition week, getting use to more of the Today Show, and then the Midday news.  hardest as I have said has been saying goodbye to KCL.

Turning the attention to weather now...

I want SNOW!!!! 3-4 Feet please! I know in my dreams. *************** Andrew, Now that we have a midday show we will do a lot more weather. Not only during the Today Show cut-ins but multiple weather segments during the midday and weekend morning show. Should be a lot of fun. Make sure to spread the word! Jeremy

 Andrew, 3-4 feet???? you would be stuck  in your house for 3-4 weeks. **************** Maybe drifts some year like that if you are lucky:) Jeremy

Good late morning to you Jeremy--I know with the LRC and the 45 day forecast more active winter is on the way---Do you see Artic air seeping down beginning this week?  Then will it occassionally seep down after the 20th and through the first week of February providing chances for (hopefully snow and not ice) which would then create the snow pack again for us keeping the temps colder?  I also follow other weather sources through Kansas and only 1 out 9 has put any colder air in place through next weekend.  Two sources have predicted it will stay normal to above the rest of the winter because of the La Nina and the Pacific Storm track not changing.  I find that fascinating. Whew--I am originally from the Wichita area and my father-law showed me an editorial in the Eagle and Beacon really blasting the weather sources down there for not being accurate. Do you think the stronger storm track will be still through here (Topeka) to St. Joe and southwestern Iowa?  You all keep up the good work.  I am ready for spring training to begin very soon.  Michael/Topeka/Berryton ************** Michael, I believe this is the week Gary mentioned for the cold air to start moving in. Next weekend...especially Saturday looks quite chilly. When I update the forecast it will have some single digit lows and possibly 18-20 for a high. Snow chances are there this week, but mainly as the cold air plunges south. I'm ready for baseball too, that means winter is about over! Jeremy

When will the weather segments air?.....11:15 I guess?....I am not going to watch all the newscast.....I tried that once on kclive...and there wasn't any weather...  -_-

With no more KC Live, I see that Brett is moving to the 11:00 spot.  What about Meredith?   ************** I think she is reporting for that show. Jeremy

why in the world is the GFS having such a hard time keeping up with the LRC?.. in terms of precip.

I was wanting to know about Meredith myself. Did she leave? Or is she staying? You could tell that she was really sad about the show going off air. "It was my dream" she said. It happened, but not for long. ************* I think she will be reporting for the midday show. Jeremy

Brent,

KC Live wasn't about weather, I loved because it was nice to see where Darren was at. *********** Darren is pretty funny. His segments were always a good time. Jeremy

I noticed one thing that stays some what consistent about the GFS it is latching on to a stormy pattern has been for awhile now, it keeps changing the exact placement of the precip though...but it seems to be slowly coming toward the LRC..

This is a stupid question, but I have always wondered when a local media show went off the air. What's going to happen to the set now? Is it going to be taken down and used for something else, or is it going to just be there?

Andrew, you're right, Darren really is funny. Laughed nearly everytime.

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The KC Live set will be used at times during the midday show.

Jeremy

Alden,

Same here, I was wondering the same thing about the sets!!

By the way...

What's going to happen to Darren? Is he going to be a reporter?

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Darren took a marketing/PR job outside of TV.  Not sure where, he mentioned it on air last Friday.

Jeremy

KC Live off the air is like a person dead! I'll get over this soon, probably after I see How cool the Midday Show is. If I can watch it, my 2 year old brother likes watching Cailou, and Jakers during 11,and 11:30am.

Who's going to host and do the weather on the weekend show?  I am glad to see that! :)

Kristi

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Kristi,

The anchors are Mike M. and Amy Hawley.  I'll be doing weather in the morning and evening.  Just like right now.

Jeremy

No problem with TV watching in this house..  Four TVs for three people and no one watches my TV but me.  Living in the basement has its positives. :)  

Kristi

Alden,

When I read your question, I had a flash back to the Seinfeld episode where Kramer discovers the Merv Griffin set in the trash, moves it to his apartment and begins to act as if he is the host of the Merv Griffin show...interviewing Jerry, Elaine and George!  What a great episode...I hope you or one reader knows the episode I am describing!

Now to a weather related question:  Jeremy, what is the long-range GFS doing with the active part of the pattern...do tell, do tell....if not, Scott, can you answer it?

Fred

New nam shows a storm system in Baja, just like that one in December.

The bulk of any major snow for the winter will be in the next three weeks.  Mainly about the 21st through the 24th and again about the 27th.  Deep freeze around the first for a couple days.  Deep freeze is highs in the single digits and lows near zero.

For LRC people on the 54 day cycle...54 days ago it was 73 and rained.....

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Gary,

You are more than welcome to use your methods to forecast for your needs. 

This Wednesday sure looks like the Friday/Saturday after Thanksgiving...roughly 54 days ago.  We'll keep using the LRC since it has proven successful for us.

Jeremy

GFS is getting very interesting so is the NAM for Thursday looks like what could be a wet system out of Mexico and Texas, could it be a little north, if history repeats it will begin to trend north over the next few days...could be some snow..huh

Jeremy, (or anyone)
"Another meteoroligist" on "another" weatherblog stated last night(Jan12) that he has a real concern for an ice setup...not snow.. in a couple of weeks.
Since I ONLY trust NBC for my weather, I am asking you see ice as a possibiltiy in the coming storms, rather than snow? I hope NOT!
Gary has mentioned 4-7 possible "storms"....but not what form he thinks they will come in...ice vs. snow.  I know it all depends on the temps, etc.
Any thoughts appreciated !
Alice

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Alice,

With the repeating of the 'active' part of the pattern and the temps being colder I'm hoping that it would be snow.  But ice cannot be ruled out.  Keep in mind the viewing area is large and we want to keep everyone in mind when we forecast.  Right now I would say rain would be unlikely with a majority of these events.

Jeremy

40% of snow now Wed into Thursday.  Snow Showers or measurable snow?

When is the next real storm that is part of the LRC scheduled to hit?

**************

We'll see how it trends, but that far out with a snow chance I can't rule out snow accumulation or put a number on it.

Jeremy

ethalo: I think it all comes down to the depth of the cold air, I think the hope is since its the time of year when we are the coldest then the colder air would be thicker..but I think all we know for sure is that we will have cold air and we will have storms, as far as the depth of cold air I don't think anyone can tell this far out. But as far as winter storms go here in KC they really run the spectrum so it is possible, but we can hang on the fact that during this time of year the cold air is suppose to be deeper, but from what it is suppose to do to what actually happens can and often become 2 different things. Hope that makes sense.

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Keep in mind it was 1 year ago around this time that we had freezing rain, sleet, and some snow.  Freezing rain can occur during the coldest part of the winter or during its early stages.

Jeremy

""Another meteoroligist" on "another" weatherblog stated last night(Jan12) that he has a real concern for an ice setup...not snow.. in a couple of weeks. "

hmm I will have to look into this.....maybe it is the same channel..that expressed a concern before we had out major...(almost) ice storm.......he was almost right...and he guessed that a week ahead of time....

I think its possible....when the cycle returns that we could see a repeat of the 10th 11th......ice storm...only colder.....

I am off to do some ice storm research!

Also...when will the weather segments be?

Brent

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Brent,

I would suggest watching or recording the first midday show and then you should have a good idea of when the segments will air.  I haven't been involved with the run thrus...so I'm not sure.  Guessing the long segment about 15 minutes after the top of the hour.

Jeremy

you guys want to see an ice storm.....take a look at this....
Its chilling....

The North American ice storm of 1998

I think Ice storms are the most facinating type of weather there is...but  this was awful.....apparently some areas got 5 inches of ice......over a 6 day period.....

very interesting.

5" Thick!! O_O
                0

Jeremy:

Good afternoon to you-how is your day going? Currently sitting at 37 degrees with some high clouds beginning to stream in. Interesting that on the 20Z surface observations, you can see tomorrow's front really beginning to take shape. There is some fairly cold air in Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota this afternoon.

I was debating weather or not throw this out here, but decided to give it a shot-just a try at showing what I think occured 54 days ago:

Indeed, 11-20 was very warm-in fact I took a huge bike that day in shorts and a tee shirt. However, by 23Z that afternoon, the temp. had dropped into the 40's and by 2 or 3 A.M. of the 21st we were in the lower 30's which we stayed in all day on the 21st. If one looks at the latest RUC today, there is a closed 500 MB low sitting over Western Qubec-if one looks at the 500 charts for Tuesday night the 20th into Wednesday the 21st: there is a 500 MB low traversing from Saskatchewan into Quebec-both did the same thing to our sensible weather: brought down a cold front. It may be off by 24-36 hours, but the fact is that while at 4:00 were were at 70, we began to drop rapidly the night of the 20th into the 21st. I may well be off by a few hours on the passgae of the front, but looking back to then and now, we have colder air comming down in both cases and to me just as then, are wittnessing before our eyes the beginnings of the active pattern returning!! Just a random observation that could well be way out of bounds.

Not at all trying to stir anything, but trying to see if I am anywhere on track with my score card at home!!! Again, if a tree branch cracks with a weather hobbyist on it and nobody is there, does it make a sound???

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

You are correct on that observation.  The weather is not going to happen to the minute or second as it did 54 days ago.  Keep in mind we are talking about the northern hemisphere:)  But a cold front timing out 24 hours within the 54 day time frame is pretty good in my book along with the position of the 500mb low.  If others see it differently I am fine with that too.  We use the LRC with success and hope that others benefit from it also. 

I hope your weekend has been great!

Jeremy

I know Andrew.......

New GFS keeps getting better with our next system.

What did the new GFS say?

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It said, "Watch NBC Action News at 5" :)

Jeremy

Folks, for those looking for an exact match in cycles within the LRC...that is silly.

Bare in mind the LRC tracks upper air flow, longwaves, and certain recurring features.

Seasons change as does the jet stream.  It is insane to assume sensible readings of a day in the cycle to match the next.  I find it hard to believe people are thinking of this.

If you want to trend each day to that of the prior cycle, trend it based on anomolies of the seasonal norm.  That is how I do it.  It is a much clearer picture.  This only works in trending.  

One exact day in the prior cycle will never match all trending criteria such as precipitation amount and temperature.  Go for the trends and anomolies....or, stick to throwing stones at the cycle that amount to nerfballs based on merit.

;-)

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Until a theory is 100% proven there will be questions.  But we find a very useful way to use the LRC and hope that it benefits our viewers and those that check out the blog.  Gary's prediction of cold air this week looks to be right on schedule.

Jeremy

I will be watching here in a couple of minutes.... Jeremy

:-)

2002...end of January. I-35 corridor/ K.C. devastating ice storm. Who can forget that? Let's hope we NEVER get a repeat of THAT one !  Lost our favorite tree to that monster. "let snow, let it snow, let it snow!"
Maybe if we all do a "snow dance" ? (rather than a rain dance) Pick a day. LOL

*************

I guess you could start a snow dance for Wednesday early Thursday.  But maybe we should wait until Tuesday so we don't run out of energy:)

Jeremy

Jeremy..questions are fine.  Blatent disregard of what has been said time and time again is not questioning, but throwing rocks.  That is fine.  For a theory that isn't 100% proven, it sure seems to be helping.

I will take a snow dance for Wed/Thurs...I will need it.  ;-)

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I understand your take on things.  This Wed/Thurs should line up with November 23/24.

Jeremy

No snow yet?

Greeting from the Dog:

Personally, I can't wait for Spring, but it does appear that a goodly amount of winter remains before we get there.  It reminds me, in a way, of my last two years at Oklahoma U. in 1978-79 - Brutal winters, including Oklahoma, with a lot of snow, for that locality, and never seemed to want to stop.  The Springs, interestingly enough, were very active down there (don't know about here), but I got to go on a chase with one of the OU crews who needed a driver, and I happened to be standing in the map room and volunteered.  Saw a tornado as well, including this one:

We had been directed down south from Norman, leaving around 130pm or so, getting down to Walters, south of Lawton around mid-afternoon, and were rewarded with thin turkey-towers that bubbled and then shredded into obsurity, time and time again.  It was quite warm - low-80s F (Apr 30th) and humid, as a strong southerly zephyr blew against us, as we leaned against the Pontiac Station Wagon (gunboats we called them as they were large creatures).  To our north, a giant mass of creamy cumulus boiled skyward, creating towers that were large and tall, and had the appearence of being "rock-hard" - tight cumulus bubbles eating up the energy and moisture surrounding their masses.

Within 20 minutes after we began to notice this area, perhaps 90 to 100 miles north of us (El Reno it was, actually), there was a large, expanding anvil of crystalline cirrus spreading for miles to the east-northeast, while on the southern flank of this atmospheric monstrousity, a flanking line coiled into a rearward tower the was churning so violently upward, while twisting, that is resembled the shape of a mushroom - a mushroom cloud, hence our term "atomic bomb".

Control by this time (probably close to 4pm) had a solid echo, with a BWER (bounded weak echo region (indicating intense lift, just behind the rain-shield - an updraft beside a down-draft, which, when introduced into a swirling atmosphere yields often a mesocyclone, and if the updraft-downdraft coupling is significant enough, a tornado) on its southern quarter.

We found ourselves screaming north in the Pontiac, with my driving skills being tested - breaking the speed limit was a given, except through towns.  Chickasha seemed to be a town lasting forever, as the massive storm grew darking, towering so high that we were already in its shadow.  Cussing the existence of a town in our way while we had a storm to catch, our patience was thinner than a gnat's membrane.

After what seemed to be an epoch of time, we entered the south side of El Reno on US 81, passing under I-40 (6 pm or so), the boiling cloud straight over us, tornado sirens wailing their hair-raising tune, and a rain-free base, dark as indigo, to our north.  Along the western part of this distinct feature, a block-shaped lowering, at least a mile and a half in breadth, seemed to touch the distant verdant trees bordering fields just in front of us.  Tags and shreads of black scud were in a minuet, those closest to us moving right, and those beyond sweeping left, with a rapidity leaving no doubt there was a tornado brewing, and probably a very-large, unpleasant one!

We left US-81 where it jogged west into the town, taking a paved road north for perhaps two miles, before coming back south to a smaller, but fortunately, paved, farm road, headed east.  We needed to get east again, and quickly, to try to penetrate under the meso to view what was now being reported as a large (F4) tornado, north of our route!  This took us under the southern fringe of the spinning, black, blue and green (what a green too - sickly and foreboding, indeed!) wall-cloud, that measured in miles, not yards!  As we drove another few miles, someone noticed a thin, light-gray pencil-point funnel, just northeast of us, over the field adjacent to our road, littered with puddles from a rain just ceased.

A telephone-pole length east of an old, delapidated barn, its weathered boards no longer carrying the paint it might have had, but now just the silvery-wood, we pulled off the road as much as possible, and all crowded out, with tripods, cameras, the lot.  We must have been there only a minute, when I heard a shout, then "Oh [expletive deleted], [expletive deleted], let's get the heck (that's not exactly the word used) outta here - look at that!"  I turned to look back, and saw, to my horror, and amazement, a swirl of dust, as red as rust, swirling madly towards the barn, and then the barn wasn't there, in the twinkle of an eye.  Yet, the rickety boards of the barn exploded outwards in what seemed slow-motion, the boards flying in our direction and pirouetting in the turbulent skies overhead!

Throwing tripods, and cameras into the back of the wagon, without consideration for interior and delicate internal electronic components, and threw ourselves into the car's interior, legs and arms askew in a puzzle of human extremeties.  I jumped into the drivers seat, turned the ignition (thank goodness it started), gunned the motor and floored the accelerator.  In less than half a minute, I had the Pontiac pounding furiously eastward, our tires throwing up clods of mud as we left our "death spot", and had the red speedometer pegged to 90 or (I swear) 95 mph!!!

All the while, members of OU's Meteorology Chase Team were filming the whirling proceeding through the back window, boards in flight like a flock of geese, behind and just over our white vehicle.

That was on a Sunday, April, 30, 2008, and what a day that was.

Dog

Stormdog - a note - the date was not 2008 of my chase - it was 1978, and there is a typo - should be "...electronic components, we threw".  Just noticed those errors.

Dog

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Dog,

I thought you were foreshadowing with the LRC:)

Jeremy

hmmm...that was a very interesting story....I'm sorry....is it real?

thats cool....lol although 90 mph isn't that fast....ok just kidding...lol

I am new to weather blog and I have learned quite a bit. But as ice storms go, in April of 1973 we had the most horrible ice storm. I was a senior in high school and this ice storm literally closed everything down. I lived in my hometown of Chillicothe, MO at that time and we lived on a farm and we had alot of dairy cattle. Moving around was almost impossible and trying to herd the cattle on horseback proved to be very scarey. I know this sounds like a "back in my time story", but in looking at ice storms in North Missouri, this one will go down in my book as one of the worse. We lost 100 year old oak, we lost cattle, hogs, lambs, you name it. It was a devasting storm. I still have the pictures that my mother took. We were out of school for 3 weeks and when we returned to school, it was time to graduate. Does anyone else remember the April ice storm of 1973? I will never forget it.
Thanks for interesting blog and I hope to learn more about the LCR and just weather in general. I now live north of the Lawson, MO area and a couple of years ago when we had the November 29 tornado, that tornado went right between our house and barn and ended on the back of our farm. It was interesting to walk around and see the pattern where the tornado would hit the ground and then lift some. That was a scarey storm and even more scarey when it took 4 hours to find our horses.
Everyone have a great week....and by the way I LOVE SNOW!!!! nwmissourigal

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Thanks for sharing your story.  Ice storms can be very devastating.  The one around St. Joe in December will certainly remain in many memories for a long time!

Jeremy

WOW Stormdog, that was awesome, I do want to see a tornado sometime in my life, not that I want to have anyone have property destroyed or get hurt, but I do want to see one someday, nwmissourigal, that interesting info, an April Ice storm, I bet that caught many by surprise, I've asked my parents who have lived in St. Joe all their lives if they have remembered any bad ice storms when they were kids but they can't seem to recall, just said that it snowed more but not much ice.