NBC Action Communities

I'm having trouble reading the key at the bottom of the map. Would someone tell me what the low for our area is Friday night on the map.

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Keep in mind those are the temperatures are the 850mb level...or 1500 meters above the ground.

Jeremy

Have you heard a local traffic reporter who does traffic for a soft rock radio station talk about the weather?  He must tune in to NBC 41, because he reiterates the forecast from your fabulous weather team.  When asked by the DJ how he knows this, he just says, "well, I just do!"  He doesn't want to tell that he doesn't follow the weather team from his own TV station. :)  

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Is it Major Miles?  If so he does traffic for NBC too.

Jeremy

Hi - Dog again - since my story I posted was right at the end of the last blog, would it be okay to repost it here?

Personally, I can't wait for Spring, but it does appear that a goodly amount of winter remains before we get there.  It reminds me, in a way, of my last two years at Oklahoma U. in 1978-79 - Brutal winters, including Oklahoma, with a lot of snow, for that locality, and never seemed to want to stop.  The Springs, interestingly enough, were very active down there (don't know about here), but I got to go on a chase with one of the OU crews who needed a driver, and I happened to be standing in the map room and volunteered.  Saw a tornado as well, including this one:

We had been directed down south from Norman, leaving around 130pm or so, getting down to Walters, south of Lawton around mid-afternoon, and were rewarded with thin turkey-towers that bubbled and then shredded into obsurity, time and time again.  It was quite warm - low-80s F (Apr 30th) and humid, as a strong southerly zephyr blew against us, as we leaned against the Pontiac Station Wagon (gunboats we called them as they were large creatures).  To our north, a giant mass of creamy cumulus boiled skyward, creating towers that were large and tall, and had the appearence of being "rock-hard" - tight cumulus bubbles eating up the energy and moisture surrounding their masses.

Within 20 minutes after we began to notice this area, perhaps 90 to 100 miles north of us (El Reno it was, actually), there was a large, expanding anvil of crystalline cirrus spreading for miles to the east-northeast, while on the southern flank of this atmospheric monstrousity, a flanking line coiled into a rearward tower the was churning so violently upward, while twisting, that is resembled the shape of a mushroom - a mushroom cloud, hence our term "atomic bomb".

Control by this time (probably close to 4pm) had a solid echo, with a BWER (bounded weak echo region (indicating intense lift, just behind the rain-shield - an updraft beside a down-draft, which, when introduced into a swirling atmosphere yields often a mesocyclone, and if the updraft-downdraft coupling is significant enough, a tornado) on its southern quarter.

We found ourselves screaming north in the Pontiac, with my driving skills being tested - breaking the speed limit was a given, except through towns.  Chickasha seemed to be a town lasting forever, as the massive storm grew darking, towering so high that we were already in its shadow.  Cussing the existence of a town in our way while we had a storm to catch, our patience was thinner than a gnat's membrane.

After what seemed to be an epoch of time, we entered the south side of El Reno on US 81, passing under I-40 (6 pm or so), the boiling cloud straight over us, tornado sirens wailing their hair-raising tune, and a rain-free base, dark as indigo, to our north.  Along the western part of this distinct feature, a block-shaped lowering, at least a mile and a half in breadth, seemed to touch the distant verdant trees bordering fields just in front of us.  Tags and shreads of black scud were in a minuet, those closest to us moving right, and those beyond sweeping left, with a rapidity leaving no doubt there was a tornado brewing, and probably a very-large, unpleasant one!

We left US-81 where it jogged west into the town, taking a paved road north for perhaps two miles, before coming back south to a smaller, but fortunately, paved, farm road, headed east.  We needed to get east again, and quickly, to try to penetrate under the meso to view what was now being reported as a large (F4) tornado, north of our route!  This took us under the southern fringe of the spinning, black, blue and green (what a green too - sickly and foreboding, indeed!) wall-cloud, that measured in miles, not yards!  As we drove another few miles, someone noticed a thin, light-gray pencil-point funnel, just northeast of us, over the field adjacent to our road, littered with puddles from a rain just ceased.

A telephone-pole length east of an old, delapidated barn, its weathered boards no longer carrying the paint it might have had, but now just the silvery-wood, we pulled off the road as much as possible, and all crowded out, with tripods, cameras, the lot.  We must have been there only a minute, when I heard a shout, then "Oh [expletive deleted], [expletive deleted], let's get the heck (that's not exactly the word used) outta here - look at that!"  I turned to look back, and saw, to my horror, and amazement, a swirl of dust, as red as rust, swirling madly towards the barn, and then the barn wasn't there, in the twinkle of an eye.  Yet, the rickety boards of the barn exploded outwards in what seemed slow-motion, the boards flying in our direction and pirouetting in the turbulent skies overhead!

Throwing tripods, and cameras into the back of the wagon, without consideration for interior and delicate internal electronic components, we threw ourselves into the car's interior, legs and arms askew in a puzzle of human extremeties.  I jumped into the drivers seat, turned the ignition (thank goodness it started), gunned the motor and floored the accelerator.  In less than half a minute, I had the Pontiac pounding furiously eastward, our tires throwing up clods of mud as we left our "death spot", and had the red speedometer pegged to 90 or (I swear) 95 mph!!!

All the while, members of OU's Meteorology Chase Team were filming the whirling proceeding through the back window, boards in flight like a flock of geese, behind and just over our white vehicle.

That was on a Sunday, April, 30, 1978, and what a day that was.

Thanks,
Dog

Do you know who the on air people will be for the weekend newscasts?

Can't wait to see it!

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Mike Marusarz and Amy Hawley...and me!

Jeremy

Good evening Jeremy, so not likely to see flurries or snow showers here in metro? dusting or anything with the snow showers???

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A flurry or two at most for mainly areas closer to the IA border and east-northeast of KC.

Jeremy

what time will the cold front push through tonight????

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Probably midnight to 3am...

Jeremy

Note from Stormdog:

In case you wondered, that story is real ( and Jeremy, I used that story because I have a feeling that this could be something akin to 1978 in the Plains.  Hopefully not here!)  I lived near OKC for 20 years, and chased for most of that time, and saw my share.

It is more likely to see the Southern Plains light up in late March-April (remember my story, and also the April 10 1979 killer twister carving a path of devastation through Wichita Falls - you young'uns should Google that event btw), then the central Plains, generally SW and central Kansas by May-early June, and then the towards Canada by late June-July.

There are several favored places for severe storms, if anyone can afford chasing with these excessive gas prices and they are:

   1.  Texas Panhandle, especially SE of Amarillo near a beautiful state park -
        Palo Duro Canyon.  The winds from the SE can blow up the canyon, and
        be forced to converge by the canyon walls, yielding explosive activity east of
        it - many tornadoes appear to occur there, tho roads are a bit scarce east of
        that point.
   2.  NW Texas - generally in a triangle from Wichita Falls-Plainview-Lubbock
        and back - including Childress.  I have chased a number of storms there
        and they are mean, and dangerous, I kid you not.
   4.  SW Oklahoma - a triangle from Lawton-Altus-Ardmore back to Lawton.
   5.  SW Texas - near Midland.
   6.  SW-Central KS - Dog calls it "The Dodge City Triangle" - not sure why, but
        since moving here, I focus more on KS, and tornadoes seem to swarm
        out there in multiples at a time, and repeatedly - Dodge City-Wichita-Great.
        Bend.  (We all recall Greensburg last year - a horror, and in that general
        area I believe - many reported from that "Triangle".

For those who wish to chase, approach your storm from the south or southeast, if
possible.  Being southeast of a wall-cloud gives you better contrast for pictures, and
also better routes to escape.  Know your escape routes ahead of time - note them as you approach the danger area.  

Some people core-punch - do not do this unless you are suicidal - you may get away with it (I have done it while riding with another, and was scared spitless), but one time you don't and that's it.  KAPUT.

Another thing to bear in mind is large hail - if you start running into quarter size
hail and you are miles away (5-10-20?) from the core, turn around - this happened to us once, we turned around while the core was a good 20 SW of us, others didn't and later, this storm dropped basketball sized hail west of Shamrock, TX!

Later,
Dog

Jeremy,

It is not Major Miles :).

i want this more active weather to start, im trying to be patient!!!! when is this more active pattern supposed to start?

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The most active part I think around January 20-23 and continue into Feb.

But this week looks pretty active temperature-wise and there are chances of light snow.

Jeremy

Oh Yeah!(from previous question). The Wednesday after this week looks pretty exciting!

Jeremy:

Awesome Blog update this evening!!! You provided some detailed analysis with some very good visuals!!! Very nice work indeed!!!

I really enjoy following these cold fronts on the surface analysis-really fun to see the wind shift lines and temp. differences. The present one is fun-I may just fall out of my chair on Wednesday!!!! LOL

Have a great evening-and my weekend has been great!!!! Thanks

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

These surface fronts are minor, but can provide a quick change and since they don't last long timing them is tricky.  The one arriving tonight affects us about 30 hours...then winds switch to the w-sw for late Tuesday. 

My weekend starts tomorrow:)

Jeremy

Jeremy, nice work on the entry above.  You have come along way...great work.

Dog - thanks for chase tips.  I plan on going for a few this year...should be..um..eventful.

I have spent the last four hours on a doozy blog on my site [click my name], so I have had to do some catchup here.  

Looks like everyone including myself is getting ramped up for the next few weeks.  Should be a blast!

Get some sleep Jeremy..you are going to need it.

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Not yet...that 'get some sleep' part will come this spring.

Jeremy

I have been wondering why the station decided to add the 7 more hours of local news. Isn't it because of you better news coverage or just to gain more viewers? So many changes, who knows what's next!

"this storm dropped basketball sized hail west of Shamrock, TX! "

baseball?...lol basketball would be scary.....

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I saw golfball to tennis ball size hail one time when I lived in WI, and it sounded scary hitting the roof of the building!  My car ended up with about $2500 in damage!

Jeremy

Jeremy

        You guys predicting this cold this week for over 5 weeks now just proves you guys really are the most accurate in KC if not across KS and Mo and beyond...It also provides more evidence of the LRC existence...Good night and keep up the fantastic work. :)

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Thanks for the post.  Gary will provide much more LRC insight this week. 

Jeremy

Spring will be a doozy as well.

Now with these storm systems going through the cycle, we should get some good ol' snow. Imagine Slippery roads,parking lots, doing donuts in the car or van!!

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Imagine sunshine, 70s, and a light breeze while sitting by a pool.  Sounds better than snow to me:)

Jeremy

I've never seen bigger than golfball, jeremy!

Jeremy,

It is a pleasure to read and listen to forecasts that are actually on the mark!  The LRC is finally something that not only makes sense, but seems to be extremely accurate.  I believe that the NWS (as well as the other weather teams) could learn something from the Pros at Ch41.

I have often been quoted as stating that Meteorology is the only career that allows you to  be wrong over 60% of the time and still keep your job - but that statement now applies to everyone BUT KSHB!  I'm not sure you've missed one event yet in the past 2 months . . .

A Big Believer in the LRC . . . you, Gary and Brett are to be commended!

Jeff
Scouter1900

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Jeff,

We have been very happy with our forecasts this fall/winter season.  Perfect...no...but very accurate.

The LRC gives us an advantage over the competition along with our own educational backgrounds and the true team relationship that we share.

As I like to say...You can not beat the weather, only tie it!

Jeremy

70s with a light breeze would be too cool for me to be by the pool.  Golf yes, pool no.

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Okay...80-85.

 

To prevent the over inflation of ego, there has been some missed elements of forecasts, but as a trend..very good.

LOL

The new NAM trends further south with the storm, but I think its off...

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The NAM has trended too far south this winter season with snow events.  I'm guessing this will play out the same way.

Jeremy

The SREF plume is coming around to what I thought for the 17/18th.  Will need a few more runs to feel real confident, but I am seeing a nice trend to a decent snowfall.

I agree with Scotts second statement....

but thats only because I live in Harrisonville!

If I lived in KC I would say you hit every storm this winter....
for Harrisovnille......not quite....

Brent

Scott can you give me a link to the SREF... Thanks

The SREF itself, or the SREF plume?  The SREF plume is linked on my blog.  The SREF is in the SPC site.  

Jeremy...we'll be watching each weekend day!  Sounds like a great lineup and during the unpredictable (at least for the other stations!) weather in the spring, this will be a great advantage.

I love this stations approach.  Adding more news/weather only keeps us better informed.  Add the blog and it's over the top!

We'll be watching in Lee's Summit...

Mike and Jenn

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Mike & Jenn,

Thanks for the support!  Please spread the word to co-workers, family, etc.  

Jeremy

Jeremy, you have mail.

Notes - you have mail.

The NAM will be right one of these times!!!

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00Z GFS has snow here late Wed.

Jeremy

POLL:
How is old the earth?

I was wondering what everybody was thinks about this.

My answer will be later.

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Andrew,

If you could, do this poll on your blog.  Polls on here need to be regulated by the weather team.

Thanks,

Jeremy

Hey Jeremy!

All these models are depressing me.  The KSHB wx team has been depressing me for 5 weeks now.  I know I'm in the minority around here regarding the cold.  How about a "First 70 Degree Reading Contest" in lieu of the "snowflake contest"?  I need something to look forward to, LOL!  I will be "hopecasting" warmth for the next several weeks (though a fleeting return of 40+ temps isn't out of the question during that span)...  Polar Bears aren't the greatest smelling of all creatures.    

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We'll get a good whif of the polar bears later this week.  That air will be of arctic origins.  If the snow accumulates on Wednesday, then some areas may near 0 by Saturday morning.

We certainly will have a quick warm-up here and there.  But overall this will be a colder than average stretch.

Jeremy

 

Fahrenheit is the only scale on which I truly recognize absolute 0.  It's been awhile since KC has defied the laws of physics.  You are correct, if we have any snowpack after Wednesday, it will be hard to differentiate the North Pole from KC.  At least in my mind...  Keep up the great work, I enjoy reading your blog.      

Wow, long day, I responded to this blog but put it in the older one, oh well, Thanks for the storm chasing insight Stormdog, very interesting storm you got caught up in in 78'.
Yea it almost does not seem real but here it is, the models now showing what Gary said with using the LRC!!  As for the ice potential, I think we will have colder situations this time and that would lead to more snow... but remember the storm on Dec. 1st and 2nd, that one the very warm air totally won out and then we had the colder storms, so I would say that there is the chance of some ice, as this pattern has over running in its DNA if you will, but another thing to think about is even if there is more ice, there is nothing that says there couldn't be more sleet, which would cause a set up that is close to producing a severe glazing event to spare the area the worst of icy effects such as the tree damage, remember the last time it happened in St. Joe was 1994, so it is not something  that happens every year either way... here we go;)

Jeremy...I'm with you.  Give me warm, sunny days by the pool.  I'm headed for the beach, going to visit my parents near South Padre for a few days next week, I need a break from this nasty Kansas Winter!  I'm glad you'll be on for the weekends, I enjoy your presentation of the weather.  One more day 'til your weekend, hang in there!  I just love this blog, uptotheminute weather reports, insight into forecasting, and personal stories of weather phenomenon.  I grew up in North Central Kansas, I have seen many tornadoes and HUGE hail.  Many years ago, my Mom and Sister were caught in a hail storm on HWY 9 between Concordia and Beloit, KS.  They had to pull over and duck under the dash as the windshield came crashing in around them, that was a frightening storm for them!  Let's hope for safe weather conditions...and I'll keep hoping for a nice warm and DRY Spring.  
Deb in Paola