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How much snow would .1-.3" of liquid precipitation get us?

How much snow would be .10-.20?

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It is usually a 10-1 ratio.  So, that would be 1-2 inches.  Let's see if it keeps trending this way.  There are still a lot of questions to be answered on this snow possibility.

Gary

Good morning Gary--I see the change right on schedule for the colder air.  Other sources across Kansas as of late afternoon changed their warmer long range numbers downward.  Anyway even if this snow storm doesn't pan out aren't we in the late November stage right now going into the really stormy section by the end of next week and into the final week of January which would match up number wise on your 54 day schedule?    Do you think the really stormy track section will still be Topeka through St. Joe?  This is exciting seeing this pattern work.  Keep up your work--Michael/Topeka/Berryton

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Michael,

Yes, we are in the second half of November part of the pattern.  The stormier December part of the pattern is still a week to two weeks away.  Before that stormy stretch happened the models had no idea it was coming.

Gary

Any chances that the Alberta Clipper systems later this week and next weeks can make it further south?

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It looks like they should make it to us, even though the models have them too far to the northeast.  The first thing to track is Wednesday's cold front.  Then, we will worry about the Alberta Clippers.

Gary

I'll be watching at 11am!! Can't wait!! We need a good ol' snowstorm w/ 2-6 Feet of Snow, and a little wind.

Keep dreaming Andrew!

What do you make of this 12z GFS data?  Looks like it's getting stronger and stronger every new model that comes out.  I'm shooting for 3" in JoCo or at least enough to give us decent sledding conditions.

Andrew, do yourself a favor and move to Buffalo where all your snow dream will come true

I am likening the new GFS, keep trending stronger....Gary no sooner than I asked about the Alberta Clippers did the models show what you sd...Good Job Your the best in KC....So are you going to brag when your 45 day forecast comes to fruit or is that unprofessional?

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We believe it is all going to happen.  I won't brag as we just want to show the rest of the meteorology community that the LRC is real.  It exists, and it helps us forecast the weather in the long range (which is amazing) and in the short range too.  One of our biggest criticisms has been "so let's say it exists, it doesn't help you any".  Well, I think we are all ready to agree that it doesn't just help a little, but it blows the competition and almost every other long range forecasting away.  This will be the first proven way to forecast longer range.  We will keep working on the LRC, as there is so much more to learn.  We have it pretty much down, but what causes it?

Gary

Andrew, that will never happen in KC. At least not until we get an ocean and some mountains nearby.

Ok I forgot to mention that you always know its cold or going to get cold in KC when in So Cal the Santa Anas are blowing, is that because there are on the back side of these strong high pressure systems?

Gary-
YOUR LRC CYCLE IS SO EXCITING!! TO BE ABLE TO PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN EVERY 45-54 DAYS. I CAN'T WAIT TO SEE IF THE NEXT MONTH IS LIKE DECMBER ONLY A BIT STRONGER. BUT I WONDER- IS THIS SOMETHING LIKE A METEOROLOGIST SAY IN MONTANA COULD USE? WILL THE WEATHER IN MONTANA BE LIKE IT WAS 45-54 DAYS AGO OR IS  YOUR LRC JUST SPECIFIC TO OUR VIEWING AREA?  DO OTHER METEOROLOGISTS KNOW OF THE LRC? HOW FUN IS IT FOR YOU TO KNOW BEFORE THE MODELS EVEN SHOW WHAT YOU ALREADY  KNOW. JUST CURIOUS.

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It isn't the exact same weather conditions that will be repeating, but the weather pattern.  So, if the weather pattern produced something significant in Montana at one time during the cycle and it was associated with a big feature in the pattern, then it will very likely repeat right on schedule.

Gary

Well today was the first day of the second semester.  The break went by fast LOL.  Gary in your LRC you are stating a very active weather pattern a lot like December, does this mean the most of the storms systems are going to take a similar track?  The reason why I am wondering is because the southern portions of the viewing area has not gotten hit very much as all, we have had a total of about 4 1/2-43/4 of snow so far this season, last year at this time we were approaching 20 inches!!! What is your outlook for the southern portions of the outlook area (a general sense) ?

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John,

If you go back to look at my 45 day forecast, issued January 2nd, you will see that I was anticipating the storms to be more widespread with the snow.  So, you should be in on more of them in this part of the cycle.  It will be interesting to watch develop.

Gary 

i am glad to see now that you will have an afternoon airing , i will watch every day.
i sure do hate this cold i hope we can get in some more active weather to go along with it.

Do you anticipate any record breaking weather in terms of cold or precipitation?  I am wondering both about single events as well as seasonal totals.

Bring on the snow!!!!!

Stormdog - Cold and snowy in Blue Springs - more than I want, where can I ship this stuff to?  How about Clinton?  More to come I fear - Yuck.

PatsSoxCelts - wonder if this person is a tranplanted New Englander or just likes those teams?  Born in Boston, grew up in Arlington, then Marlboro, then Holden before heading west in 74.  Ended up in KC - not a bad town - pretty around here.  Just a bit chilly just now for this Dog.

Later,
Dog