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Why do I sense that this storm system is leading to more cases of modelitis???  I am sure I am not the only one suffering this right now!!

I've got modelitits and I don't even know how to read the stupid things!  LOL!!!  ;)

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I spread that horrible disease tonight.  I am so sorry. 

Gary

The lastest GFS has the upper low tracking around the NE/SD border, but all of the precip is SE of the upper low.  Why isn't the snow north of the upper low this time?

Thanks, Eswar

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Eswar,

If it continues to look this way I will explain in the blog on Tuesday.  It is a positively tilted trough, and it usually would not produce much here.  Because it is positively tilted the lift is pushed off to the east of the trough, so there is not much around that upper low.  It probably won't quite turn into a real closed upper low anyway.

GAry

Thank you for keeping us up to date on the storm today Gary.   I always watch you on TV, but the blog is our lifeline to nowcasting.   It should be a very busy next few weeks.  

Joe

Modelitis is for the birds.  Cycle analysis is the cure.  LOL

Its funny...actually I would prefer the NAM vort profile to the GFS.  I favor the somewhat negative tilt progression in the southern extention and the later phasing in the later frames.  It also brings the vort closer to the known longwave than what I see from the GFS.  I do favor the GFS on timing.

Maybe I am crazy..and while a bit overdone, I may go with a blend this time with the NAM and GFS for the vort behavior.

If it does begin to go more negative and with ample moisture in place, the only question is the amount of forcing to drive the snow out. Obviously I am voting for the negative tilt.   I wonder what the next few runs will do to bring these solutions together?

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Scott,

I don't agree.  I think the GFS has the much more correct solution.  The NAM strayed away from every other model.  So, it's the GFS for me right now.

Gary

The NAM has really sucked this year for some reason it seems years past it was better, but the GFS has been doing excellent - I always liked it better anyway..lol

Well I was at work when the case of modilitus hit, health hint, this year when handling NAM data be sure to wear a protective mask and wear gloves, then wash thoroughly LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Walked home from work tonight, the air was crystal clear and I could feel the cold air fill my lungs, kind of refreshing feeling if you don't have to be out too long, and the stars were rather impressive against the clear black background, with the clear and cold conditions it made me feel that much closer to the stark frigid expanse of  space, a stark contrast to the muggy hazy soup that comprises the night time air in the summer!  I too have noticed the oddness of Wednesday's system, as the vort has looked kind of sheared on the model runs but it was still progged to produce.

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Thanks for the description of your walk home Nick.  It had of been a cold walk, but colder air is on the way.

Gary

Gary:

Good Morning to you Sir!!!! Currently sitting at a frosty 16 degrees this morning-very refreshing out this morning, but one can already smell the quick changes in the air-the air has that warmer air smell to it this morning!!

First of all, thanks so much for responding to my email-I sent you a response this morning but again, I will just say how much it is appreciated that you took the time to respond to me!!!I wanted to throw out some musings yesterday, but man school is in full throttle mode already!!!!

Looking at the latest surface observations, the high pressure (1024MB) is currently sitting over Columbia, Missouri and we have now entered into the return flow-no wonder it has that warmer air smell to it this morning!! Will be interesting to see how much we warm up today and how long that High hangs around, but already being in a southerly flow I would guess we warm pretty quickly. Still, fun to watch!!

I really think this next 48 hours is going to be just amazing to watch unfold!!! I love to watch strong cold fronts on the surface charts anyway (I know-not much to amuse me LOL) but even more than that we are seeing a set up, well, I think we are,  very similar to what we saw on 11-24-a strong push of colder air and a weak upper level low tracking through Nebraska-it is on the 500 charts for 0Z 11-24-amazing!!!

This time though, the colder air is much stronger so it will be fun to track and I think as has been said, our sensible weather will be much more affected-by the cold for sure but even with precip. as we have more dynamics going on with the temp. gradients etc. We had very little precip. here on 11-24 but this time, we have the same cards but are playing 7 card stud with jokers wild-our joker is the cold air and man is it wild!!!!

I do think the models will be kind of back and forth somewhat based on how they handle the speed of the cold air. The GFS has been the most consistent and the Euro has been showing a somewhat similar solution to the GFS. I also saw where NCEP is about to do a massive overhaul on the NAM and re-release it in the middle of February. This will be a fun event to watch on satelite and surface charts for sure!!

Finally, I noticed that the 0Z GFS last night had hints of our warm front on steroids for next Monday-right on schedule!!!! Just amazing!!!

Have a great day-I am so excited to follow the next 48 hours if for nothing else to track the cold front-snow would be a bonus/gravy/cherry on top but this front is going to be something to watch!!!! Already, clouds are streaming into Colorado-game on!!!!!

Thanks again for reading and as always, I hope some of this makes sense-I am beginning to go out more on a limb...crack!!!! I hope you get to enjoy the weather today-later this afternoon and this evening will feel pretty nice!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

This part of the pattern is directly related to the period of November 21st-24th, and as  you have said this storm as acting just like the November 24th positively tilted trough.  We had three hours of snow from that storm.  This one seems only slightly better organized and stronger, so we can probably expect 6 or 8 hours of precipitation and mostly in the form of snow on Wednesday night.  There is a good chance of a mixture or rain to start.  I just looked at the pattern from November again. Wow, it is so identical to that part of the pattern.

Gary

When you looked at the GFS last night and today.Was it more inpresive when you looked at it in the day?

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Interesting question, but no.  It is still a complex set up for us and we will go over it in a new blog soon.

Gary

Sounds good to me!!