NBC Action Communities

Are we going to update the weather page?  I got on there this morning and thought it had warmed up to 32 degrees already!!  Then I saw it was still in the mid teens.  

For a minute I thought it might get up to 50 today or something.  

------------------------

We are putting in a new computer, and the web page won't be updated until sometime later today.

Gary

Looking forward to the update gary!

Bryan

Good morning, Gary.  Looking forward to more updates...with all snow south of KC maybe???  I know that's wishful thinking on my part but I would really love to see some snow rather than the rain/mix.

By the way, when is the forecast going to be updated online?  It still has Monday's info.

Thanks for your enthusiasm for the weather and the cohesiveness of your team.  You are the best!

----------------

Thanks, and the web forecast will be updates sometime today.  We have had some problems with our new computer.

Gary

Im awating ur update because i need to tell my classmates here.

"But, the NAM has a stronger, slower solution which would bring in higher dewpoints and some rain and other problems, if you want snow, unless you live north of the line we could draw on almost every storm this season"

Other problems??  Are we looking at ice, or just more rain than snow for the south and east?

----------------

The "problems" are for snow lovers.  It could be more rain or a mixture rather than snow for areas to our south.  But, we are uncertain of the track at this moment.  We do know what has been happening this season though.

Gary

The NAM seems to keep the precip in the area for a good bit a time into the evening hours showing decent QPF totals.

----------

But, it could be rain.

Gary

what problems

I want 3 inches of snow in Olathe dang it

Being a snow lover this is hard to say, but I wouldn't mind rain Wednesday. Thursday is the first day of classes at KU and I go from 930-6. Icy sidewalks on Mt Oread lead to me being late to class!

Bring on weekend storms!!

Brian

Gary,  The 540 line seems well south of our area into the OK border by noon wednesday....for this setup tomorrow, does that mean its cold enough for snow in the upper layers, but maybe still to warm in the lowest layer?

That is what it is looking like weatherfly.

Bryan

Brian,
I remember the snowstorms and ice storms from my days at KU.  I would take the rain any day. :)

Kristi

Gary,
I was reading some comments from the last blog after or during the news last night.  Tomorrow's storm is setting up to be like the one we had the day before Thanksgiving?  I do have some pictures of the snow falling that day.

Kristi

I don't fully understand how to read these model images, but it looks like the rain/snow line is just west of us when this thing cranks up, according to the NAM.  Again please correct me if I'm wrong:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl7_042m.gif

What the new computer for? HD Graphics?

kristi-
I was at northwest Missouri state in maryville for two years, and the weather is so much different there. We had a theory that Maryville became part of the arctic circle during winter because it always was cooler and windier than everywhere else. I have been told by some of my friends up there that the campus and town look completly different because of that ice storm. Something like 25% of the trees were severely damaged...

Brian

Like I've said several times , Gary indicated that the LRC would likely produce stronger storms this time around.  This has it good points and bad points.  Strong storms are normally larger , last longer, produce more snow , at higher intensity but the drawback is because they are slower have the ability to pull up warm moist gulf air. From reading Gary's blog I am one of the favored positions for the winter 2007 -- 2008.  

If this event develops into one of eight to twelve hours in duration all it would take is a period of 2 to 4 hours of S to S+ two place at least 3 inches in my backyard the balance of the time with light snow than give St Joseph and the other favor areas to my southwest 4-6 with very easily.  The key is going to be the depth of the cold air in the southern portion of the Kansas city area.  I think the intensity of the precipitation will be there but the city's only 33 were 34° will have the situation just like last week where we received 0.56 inches of moisture in St Joseph and only 1 in. of snow.  

Time will tell we're basically 24 hours out.  It would not surprise me if the NWS issues a snow advisory for the county's of Platte,Clay, Clinton, Dekalb and points north 3:30 this afternoon.                  

NEW GFS comming out.

Im likeing the latest GFS!

I have always wanted to attend one of these classes and there is one in Feb not far from my house. I saw that it is only 2hr what do they discuss in these classes?  My 8yr old and I love weather and he is constantly reading books on it and reads these blogs.  I would love to take him to this class I think he would love learning even more.  I was just curious what goes on in these classes 2hrs seemed kinda short to learn to be a storm spotter?

Thanks
Christy and Tyler

Doesn't the NAM have a warm bias? The new GFS looks better but the system is taking on a  classic 07/08 LRC track, I know it may rain but we should still see some accumulation here in the city...right?

NAM is non existent to me

Fire Dog, you can't post stuff like that with nothing else!!!

What does the GFS say?

Hmmm,  no concerns.

Looking at the new GFS, it does appear there is a chance it would likely start out as rain as the lower levels will be a bit too warm.  The cold air will filter in quickly and around 6PM Wednesday from a line NW to SE, with it I expect the turn over to snow.  According to the newest GFS, it still paints up to .25 of precip for two 6 hour frames with some flurries on the third.  I have thought all along from my trending that we could get .4 to .8 inches of total precip from this storm – not just from the trend of the last occurrence, but from even one cycle further back in September and using that as a guide.

I think the NAM has definitely strayed again in most of its products.  Still kinda like the upper air shape, but timing and location is still a bit questionable.  I have gone with the majority of the GFS in this analysis and with the SREF

So while we may get up to .2 inches of liquid prior to the cold air, there will be plenty of cold air to fill in behind and turn to snow.    Looks like decent, but not tremendous forcing.  

I am not backing off of my original forecast for this storm from January 1st.  As usual, I will keep watching and wait for something definitive to change my mind.  

can someone explain to me when the different times are that the GFS comes out and what part of the GFS to look at? I have looked before and clicked on the 4 panel but not sure where to go from there.

here is the link for the GFS

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=gfs

Scott I concur on your assessment.  The GFS looks like it starts out as rain and then the backside is snow.  If it were only cold enough for the entire event it would a winter wonderland out there.  Well it's still 36 hours before this thing gets going so we'll wait and see.

Gary what do you make of the latest models and the rain/snow line?

Brian,
An ice storm will certainly change the landscape. :(  It happened here in 2002. :(

Kristi

opeterson,

I am glad you showed that product from the GFS.  It paints a better picture of what I am trying to describe than the NCEP depiction.

Watch that vort over central KS.  Watch how it bends back a bit giving a somewhat negative appearance?  This would provide more forcing to lift the atmosphere.

Watch the 42 hr into the 48 hr as it attempts to phase with the northern stream.  It is showing the right action, but still needs to dig a bit more SE before its phasing cycle which should happen just NE of here.

This has been the signature with this part of the cycle.  It is amazing to watch knowing what should happen.   The models have really struggled with this storm all along, but slowly but surely it is getting into what I have expected for quite awhile.

That is what I am expecting, and why I am not worried or changing my forecast.

opeterson, thank you very much! Does the GFS come out at different times?

opeterson, by that question, I ment are the times the GFS come out like 6am, etc, and and how that time scale works?

Check the link below for general information about the GFS Model

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/

This is a set of contour plots using data from the GFS model. The output fields are consistent with other models so the models can be compared. This model gives forecast information out to 72 hours and plots are 72 hour 6 panel plots where each plot has a panel for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hour forecast and individual forecast times from initialization to 72 hours in 12 hour increments. These plots are updated once every 12 hours at roughly 2:00 EST.

opeterson, thank you for taking the time to put that info out to me! That is how we learn, by gracious people like you willing to take the time!

I hate being a weather "snob" but the other blog is so far off its like another city their talking about. It looks like a widespread snow event with the heavest totals north of 170...so what else is new :)  At least most of the viewing area will get a little "something"..I'm still watching how fast the colder air moves in

momtylerethan - If you are asking about the NWS stormspotter classes, we went to one last year and found it very helpful. There was a powerpoint presentation about the ingredients and characteristics of severe weather, with lots of pictures/videos. Very useful for helping you see the difference between a truly dangerous sky and a merely scary sky. There were elementary aged kids there last year. We plan to take our kids this year.

JudyH-Yes I'm sorry I don't know what I did. i thought for sure I typed in their the storm spotter classes.  That is what I ment though so thank you. I will deffinately take my 8yr old then to the one here in clay cnty.  He is so excited. Most books he reads has to do with weather or space-thats it :}  He got a digital weather station for Christmas though we haven't had much time to sit down and look at it together yet.  

When is Gary's next update??

After seeing the forcast on TV a few min ago, I am expecting Brent to be one hot person! Looks like he get's mostly rain again, maybe a dusting, poor thing! lol...Im sure he will be on here soon enough all disappointed! But...I have to admit, I do get tired of the same ole weather pattern.

Anyone else here feel like Noah warning people about the weather.  I have told several people what is going to happen with the weather in the next few weeks and they just stare at me like Im stupid.  I explain the LRC to the best of my ability.  I guess we are the only animals on the ark right now. LOL  

at this moment I still feel confident in snow in Blue Springs, the only place I care about it snowing!

:-D

heavysnow, I like your positive outlook! Although I just know we won't get but a light dusting around the Belton/Grandview area, it's just not there I guess.

It seems every year when it warms up in the middle of winter like it does every year, people think it spring, i dunno why 01/15 is a cold date...GFS looked much better, anyone have an predictions for the metro? A think a solid 2 to4

hmmmm..

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_bu/.//+sa1_ptype+am+39

Doesn't look like rain to me.

hmmmm...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f048&startdate=2008011509&field=SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_

it doesn't look like rain to me either

Scott, are you posting this for me because of what I said or someone else? On the 11:00 to 12:00 forcasts on tv, it was showing the same ole thing for my area, and he commented on that as well as Krista, lol...But, I do like the looks of that map!

Doesn't look like much Snow!!! Oh well there will be more storms I geuss.

One station says 1 to 6 inches
One station says 1 to 3 with more to the south and southeast...(don't ask me where they got that..)
and you guys are forecasting 1 to 4 throughout the whole metro...I think we will get about 1.25 inches here in Harrisonville....since this dang rain is going to cut our totals down south....looks like st joseph may see all snow again!.

Brent

25% of the 20 models used in the SREF show snowfall in the area over 4+ inches.  Of the remaining, they show no snow at all.  I count these remaining as an error rather than a trend - likely lack of initialization.

Blending the NAM, GFS, RUC and SREF on vort pattern, I still see a bit of a turn to the vort.  I am inclined on current model data to think lift will be more widespread and available.

Just my observations.

I agree Scott, I looked at both of those sites, and it sure doesn't look like rain, it looks more like snow...with locally heavier amounts...

kellyann, its just all interpretation right now.  We will see.

We are still a long way out, the cold front may approach quicker than expected...I am keeping the faith!

You guys are getting my hopes up now. Hopefully there will be atleast 2 inches in Lenexa.

I hope we get an update from Brent soon.

















































.

I read that we might get thunder snow somewhere is it possible with this storm?

weather channel is predicting tundersnow tomorrow night for 66213 zip code. Never seen that before.  Looks promising!!

I think that zip code is over by OP

but then again, that is weather channel, don't count on it.  

Do you guys know when the weather team will put out an update on here.

66213 is in Overland Park . . . It's my zip code -- and I live by BVNW high school

Well at least the moisture is going to be here, but I'm getting real tired of worrying about whether the temperature is going to be cold enough.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif

I am not mad....very discouraged maybe....
I don't prefer rain in January...but like Scott said...it could be more snow.......maybe....

LOL I agree kellyann....don't count on the weather channel...although I think thundersnow is possible...maybe further south?.....

theres certainly a lot of precip forecasted...whether its all snow or not...we'll see.....

I hope the cold air comes in earlier.

Brent

I believe the weather channel uses state of the art forcasting tools.  Their newest tool is the AccuDart weather forcasting bored.  They grab some darts, throw it at the bored and whatever the dart lands on is the forcast.

Jeffro,

LOL

AccuDart...too funny  lol

"AccuDart" ... LOL

LoL, Jeffro, that is certainly how it seems with TWC.

Brent, thundersnow further south would be so cool!! doubt that happens, lol.
I wouldn't mind if the precip was mostly rain, as long as the "mostly rain" is in OK!

Love the accudart!  Too funny.

Jeffro---Hilarious!

Well the NAM is rolling out right now.  Its still on 000 hr so Im going to give it 15min then go have a look see at what ITS calling for.

Brett's snowfall forecast on the 11 a.m. show... where have I seen that map before LOL;)  Well I'm ready looks like fun and time to use my new ruler again, and to warm up the shovel!!  Oh, by the way I think Gary needs to issue a "severe pot hole watch" for some areas, I know that they are already getting bad up here and with this active winter period about to move in again the roads could be interesting by March!!

Hello eveyone, So what's the lastest forecast for tomorrow? I have not watch, what accumulation amount are we expecting in metro/??????????

Update us on the new NAM when it comes out please!.

Brent

AccuDart..    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha....

Scott - you said you are not worried ... does that mean you are still holding out for the 4-8" across the viewing area? Not trying to nail you down or anything. :-)

Jeffro that was one of the funniest shots at TWC I've ever heard.  Come on NAM give us some SNOW!

Brent - go here: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

Put KMCI (KCI airport) or KMKC (downtown airport) ... select "off hour NAM" and you will see the raw numerical output for those points when it comes out.

Hope you get some snow!

I have used the accudart system before......

:-)

The NAM is rolling out now

WHAT DOES IT SAY???????????????????????????????

Am I seeing the rain/snow line still west of KC on the latest NAM?  At least the moisture is still there.  Someone with more expertise please explain?

its only at 30 hrs, give me a min to look, so far stronger out west then b-4

I'll be back in an hour...I hope its good news!

yes that is what your seeing, but its at 36hr out now, its coming in stronger I can tell that much and there is more precip on the frozen side than the wet side give me just a few to get a few more out of it.

Seems to me that the NAM is delaying onset of precip. until cooler temps arrive Wednesday night and is painting .25 to .50 precip. over most of the viewing area all of which would be frozen if I am reading temps correctly  There is even pockets of .5 to .75 with snow lingering into Thursday daylight hours.

stepheninskc, could you give me the link to where you are looking at this since I am just learning?

Bring on the snow....Is this storm falling in line with the LRC??

Let's hope the GFS continues a wetter trend and maybe just a touch colder than the NAM.

colder air......precip. holding off till it arrives.........I smell snow. Since i am new what would .50 precip. be in inches of snowfall?????

If I am reading it right on the Accuwx Pro site, NAM looks like all snow ... based on "combined conditional forecast" of rain/snow/ice.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ just copy and past that, the look for the NAM model at 18UTC

The NAM really look to be following the LRC to the T, it still shoots a nice band of snow will pivot through as the storm wraps up to the north. I still take the NAM with a grain of salt and will wait on th GFS.

I know its the weather channel, who sucks for local forecasting, but they are calling for rain/snow mix late tomorrow, changing to all snow overnight, and are predicting 3 to 5 inches of snow. Still waiting for the weather team to update the blog with the new data..

Oh man if the GFS ( best out of the 2 for this winter ) builds up like the NAM!!

Am i seeing a nice little patch of snow south and west of the city???I know it all depends on the cold air getting here in time

Come on weather team!!!!!!!!! Please!!!!!!!!

Yes Rick, I am sticking to it.  I see nothing in my interpretation and analysis that shows strong evidence otherwise.  Granted, actual amounts may be localized, but as a trend/range for this area....I am sticking to it.

kane1970
I believe that is 6", but it should also depend on ratios and if any rain were to fall would have a big effect on accumalations too.

If you subscribe to using the NAM, based on 18Z, it gives us very nice PVA at 42hr.

Where's Gary, Brett, Jeremy, or Jeff?  They've been strangely silent for quite sometime.  I want to know their thoughts on what's going on. ************ Here's an update for you on my day off. We have been getting new weather computers installed the past 2 days which consumes a lot of time for Gary and Jeff. Gary also had a school talk a little way from the station today. Don't worry...you will get an update later and as always the best forecast in town. Hopefully that answers your question. Jeremy

And Jeremy pops in from the woodwork.  LOL - its addictive isn't it?

Gary and the team has other duties besides answering blog comments. :)  We will hear from Gary later.  

Thanks, Jeremy, for the update on your day off. :)

I am just going to sit back and watch to see what happens tomorrow afternoon and night.

Kristi

All right my weather expert friends-I am work and go to school at Maple Woods Comm College North of the River.  Tell me are they going to cancel my 6pm class tomorrow night?  LOL

I am going to go stock up on food................................ This may get ugly. LOL. Well atleast it is very exciting to watch all of this unfold. Even though I really have no idea what I am looking at. (Its nice to think that I am smart.) Can't wait to see what happens tommrow............Advisorys out west......COOL....... BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holmes - I wouldn't count on it. Now, get to work. LOL :)

The models are doing the same thing they did earlier.  Starting the the event down south and then the move up to the north and looking at the 30,36 and 42 hour precip. panel St Joseph in two of them is in 0.10 -0.25 and in middle one 0.25 -0.50.  Taking lower end of the scale that is 0.45 to .65 all snow.  You do not need the rocket scientist to compute this out to 5-7 inches. some of you are talking about the Thundersnow we have that back on 21 December.  In one hour you can receive 2in. of snow. If that develops there could be local areas that receive upwards of 8in.  We will know within 24 hours as it will be starting or be appearing on radar.  Go cold front.          

ok, teachers, define thundersnow?

Another hmmm....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif

thunder snow is when you have a very sufficient updraft as you do in a regular thunderstorm, the mechanisms are all the same except  you have snow instead of rain. Thats a very simple explanation there is more to that that but in a nutshell, also thunder snow is a bit hard to identify since the snowflakes make the lightning hard to see and the snow acts as a sound cushion so the thunder is always real weird and low, its really kwel if you ever see it...I seriously doubt you see it wed.

From Wikipedia

Thundersnow also known as a Winter Thunderstorm or a Thunder Snowstorm is a particularly rare meteorological phenomenon that includes the typical behavior of a thunderstorm, but with snow falling as the primary precipitation instead of rain. It commonly falls in regions of strong upward motion within the cold sector of extratropical cyclones between autumn and spring when surface temperatures are most likely to be near or below freezing. Variations exist, such as thundersleet, where the precipitation consists of sleet rather than snow.

wow scott that a lot of rain near Panama City FL, neat

kidding

I still want to see the GFS, I have trouble trusting the NAM. Something tells me this system is gonna be a bot stronger than currently advertised, the models have been trending that way.

Thundersnow is the wildest thing.  It is so cool to see.  It snows so hard but hearing the thunder and lightening makes it even more cool.  
RickMcKc-I know I am having class tomorrow night but even at 39 years old I can still hope for a snow day.  I want it to snow I have an office with a window now so I can watch LOL  Let it snow Let it snow Let it snow

If the NWS forecast is correct that will put me at nearly 30 inches for the winter.  We have had 22.5 so far, with 1 inch from each of the snows earlier this month.  That will be more snow that I have had the last 3 winters combined.  And to think that winter ins't even half over...

The NWS in Topeka has issued a Snow Advisory to our west.

Kristi

Stepheninskc - We will see.  I have thought for quite awhile this would materialize, and the models up to the event will struggle with it.  It is not typical, but has been hiding in analysis for those that sought to find it.

;-)

Start filling in a snow advisory NE to SW based on the map below...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Start with the one in NE Iowa and fill in the gaps to what Topeka did.  This is how it will likely look in the near future.

EAX is likely doing one more review or constructing the maps as we speak.

hmmm the clinton, sedalia, harrisonville areas once again get 0 to little snow. :(

Holmes - I've got you by a few years and I still hold out for snow days, too. This has been a fun winter in that regard!

Wow, Scott - that sounds almost biblical ...

I know you have your hands full with the forecast for the area, but do you guys have any thoughts on the Lincoln/Nebraska City, NE area?  Some are reporting maybe 6-8 inches possible.  I'm not sure who to trust there, but I know who to trust here!

hmmm well I certainly don't want to get missed by trhe snow again....the system slowing down is very very good for us....let it slow down 12 hours if need be!.

take a look at the 7 day everyone!!!!!!!!!!!

the arctic is here ...for real!!!

Great job Gary!

Scott,
That is a Winter Storm Watch for eastern IA.

Kristi

I want snow!  I want snow!

kristi - yeah, I was thinking more visually of constructing the line of impact.  They already have the cold air in place, so none to be lost in liquid.

Good catch...

We are in it now.

www.weather.gov

Oh boy -2 for a low on Saturday night.  Add in a little wind and that's dangerously cold.  I like the latest GFS, moisture is still here with more behind the rain/snow line.  I'm really hoping for 4" here in JoCo.

Here's my thoughts:

http://photos-a.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sf2p/v182/73/61/508280943/n508280943_818968_9691.jpg

Snow Advisory just issued for KC!

New GFS looks to on track with last run, no real change...NWS says 2-4

The NWS is only calling for 1 to 3 inches up there, I think.  I am sure that will become a Snow Advisory.

Kristi

Scott you were spot on, because now EAX has us under a Snow Advisory:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/

Here it comes!

Rick - Biblical and apparently psychic as well noting how quicking EAX would catch on and how it would look.

LOL

NWS winter weather advisiory 3-5 from KC  in KC 2-4

Im tired of repping wellington mo we get nothing out of anything. Snow advisories all around, but here nope why would we get anything here? I just need to stop wishing for snow and i might get some lol

Once again-left out of the action. GRRR. Little snow accumulations, no snow advisory.  Look's to be all rain for me. Is this January??? :(

This may be the one storm thats big for Harrisonville......2 inches!!!!!

lol.......

I am sure that the 4 inches will be further north.  I predict two inches here in south Raytown.

Kristi

Gary has never waivered from his forecast of colder air and a more active pattern.  It is arriving on time.  Just wait until Jan. 25th when it starts getting more active. :)  Hold on for the ride. :)

Kristi

Finally..I am starting to see it, and it may appear on the next run from the NAM/GFS.

Based on the last run of the SREF, the vort max is finally dropping into the longwave with the maxima driving around the base of the trough right into the Joplin area.

About time..sheesh.  Another LRC production.  Silly models..

Does anyone know what the largest snowfall amount on record is for Leavenworth during one storm?

Brent,
You just watch Jan. 25th thru Feb. 20th..  I think that you might be a happy camper as far as snow goes. :)

Kristi

Kristi - would I be deviating from the LRC if I went with the 24th instead?  LOL

St. Joe is now under the snow advisory!!! they have filled in the gap, one thing that I notice  about alot of the storms this winter is that they start out looking small, but in the end they become quite significant.

Nah Scott...  If it s a day or so off, I would call it pretty darn close. :)

Kristi

I need one of you weather-teacher-types to help me!

The website given for watching the GFS is excellent.  Thanks for forwarding it.  I've got one question.

What does UTC stand for?