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What do you mean " more warning signs  "?  More rain/less snow?

Stormdog here - I would hope that Blue Springs will get a nice collection of "RAIN" in the gauge, without the hassle of snow - a dusting is fine with me.  Perhaps, we can have snow everywhere but Blue Springs - that would please me (tho not Heavy Snow - sorry my friend) and give everyone else, including poor Brent,  something to be positive about.  However, Heavy Snow, I realize we will get hammered sometime over the next miserable month, so don't dispair.

Hopefully, this Spring won't equal 78-79 in severe damage, but I have trepidations concerning this period..

Cheers, The Dog

"And, part may have very little, once again. "

Great.

"The afternoon data has some more warning signs"

Great......

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Brent,

We just need that cold front to get past Harrisonville before 7 PM tomorrow night and then you will be in it, but if not, it could be rain or a mixture for too long.....again.  The best thing right now is that it looks like it is going north.  Maybe by tomorrow it will shift south.  There is some chance of that, but just as much chance that it shifts north a bit too.

Gary

Gary,

     Does this storm fall in line with the LRC??...Another question which I know you probably hate to answer and you dont have if you dont want to, but based on the computer models right now...How much snow is possible to fall in SE Linn County, MO??...much appreciated;)

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Linn county, again, is on the edge of this storm. I am holding off on getting too specific, but right now it looks like some rain for half of the event down there, at least.  Let's see how we feel in a few hours. 

And, yes, it falls in line with the LRC.  This storm is very similar to November 24th, but stronger.

Gary

Yes, another blog from the wx team with very few details, only pandering.  

Why send this blog out if your only going to stir up worry from us bloggers about "warning signs"?.  We already know this will be a difficult forecast for the wx team, you don't need to keep saying it every blog like your giving yourself an out.

Please provide some details otherwise your just creating another blog that can fill up with another 100 posts of speculation.

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If you are a regular blogger of NBC Action News, then you know I always provide detail.  We have been training on a new computer all day, so this is the only reason I am waiting until in between newscasts to spend some time on giving you a more detailed blog on the warning signs, etc.  Please bare with us today, and check back in soon.

Gary

What happened to the people who said that it would be mostly snow?......because the storm was slowing down?

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Brent,

It has slowed down so much that it is pulling in more warm air.  But, this is still very complex.  I wish I could make it go just a bit farther south.  Let's see how it trends.

Gary

If KC gets snow when will this "likely" occur? Afternoon or Evening? I just don't want a messy commute home.

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Coming home is going to be close!

Gary

"Brent,

It has slowed down so much that it is pulling in more warm air.  But, this is still very complex.  I wish I could make it go just a bit farther south.  Let's see how it trends.

Gary"

I understand now .....thanks Gary....

but I thought that it slowing down...would let the cold air get in here before the precip started....

Its all timing, Brent...

I model forecasting was easy, then everyone would be doing it.  Oh..wait.

LOL

Any concerns about getting dry slotted which seems to happen more than expected?

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If this comes out as a stronger storm into Kansas then the dry slot will be a problem.  The models are backing off on the big storm, which could play into our favor.

Gary

Gary,

One doesn't have to "blog" to be a "regular blogger".  All i'm saying is that instead of putting out an entry that gives no new information, at least throw out a tidbit or two of something credible that could be used if people have plans.   We're all busy people, and we turn to you and your blog for our information when we can't watch you on TV.

I am already seeing the 10,000 questions about what is going to happen and where.

Always such as tough call here in Kc, I would like for once to have an all snow event with out worrying about warm temps.

I think it's about time where we can make a snowfall graphic with lines and everything and save it for the entire winter. All we now have to adjust is how much snow is in those lines on a per-storm basis. So far, the Kansas City Metro area keeps being put in this minimal 1-3" category :-)

what are you thinking snow wise in the parkville farley area??
when willthe roads get bad?

What's interesting is you refer to the Nov. 24th storm where the high for that day was 37 and low of 25... with .2" of snow measured at KCI... those "warning signs" that I am seeing the GFS paint for us display a striking similarity to the storm on the 24th as well, and that 1-3" that I mentioned could be very much overdone for Kansas City unless it really gets it's act together and/or fools the latest model run.

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This is related to that storm, but this one is stronger! So, it will produce a lot more precipitation.

Gary

I am going to watch Gary at 5 PM.  I want to hear what he has to say.  Let's all watch at 5 PM. :)

Kristi

I just don't see 40+ inches this year........

Oh well maybe in St Joseph....lol

I guess it's safe to say that OP will get about, oh I don't know.....AN INCH! Why do these stupid storms keep avoiding the southern half of the metro! If this happens again, I'm moving to St. Jospeh. Of course, then all the storms would go south. Sorry, I just had to vent some frustration.

Well, I'm driving from SW Mo to KC during the day tomorrow so all rain is fine with me. Even better would be continuing the warm sunny weather that is down here in SW Mo today, but that doesn't seem likely.

Ouch, for the southern viewers.....

LOL, Brent are you surpised.   LRC is a powerful word.  Here we go again, same track same story!

I'm not surprised......it will continue to be the same way all winter...Harrisonville will be ripped off...

That is frutstrating!  Last year you got alot, I wonder if this track will shift farther north next year?

Ther are plenty of snow chances for the next week, I am sure with the arctic air getting deeper we will all get what we want soon, I do have a question for anyone, whats the thought on the next system since temps will be so cold the ratios could be high?

Atleast the active pattern is  back!  One week with a decent storm was almost torture!  We don't want this storm to become to strong,  kc dry slot city!  
Just got home now I can really see what is going on.  Notice the advisories going into effect, nice!

Is it possible this storm could produce a snornado (snow-tornado)? If so, I will be prepared with my helmet. And, if you wouldn't mind, it would be helpful if you could spin around like a TOP and show me what a tornado miight look like just so I'm prepared.

I love the 41 Weather Team.

Much Abliged,
SC

Gary--the Topeka NWS and two of our weather sources are saying at least 5 inches here which lines up in late November. But you are saying it could come out stronger.  Why aren't any of the other weather sources in KC or Topeka buying into the really cold air as you have it?  They are saying highes in the twenties and thirties.  I just don't understand.  As usual I will stick to your forecast.  Thanks!   Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

There will likely be snow cover from Kansas City to the North Pole.  December was a lot colder than those other sources thought as well. 

Gary

Stormcahser77  a SNORNADO????? I thought that was what Brent was doing in Harrisonville  ( a snore nado)

Ok so. I want the 2nd part to happen which means that we get more snow. I want 3 inches so i dont have skool on thursday

I don't think anyone is going to forget helmet night!  LOL, that was a night to remember!  How long ago was that?  A SNORNADO thats funny!  I need one of those!  
The arctic air warning is in effect and it will get deeper, but the storms just keep right on trucking up the same old spots!  Just like last year.  We are all due in my book!

Well since the snow storms were south of Kansas City last year, and they are north of Kansas City this year, perhaps next year they will be right on top of us? Please? :-)

Ok, this is my weather stupidity showing here....you can't actually have a snowado, can you?  Be easy on me!!  :)

Keri

I to agree with one of the earlier posts .  Predict or say nothing, predicting on the weather cast and then talking about various possibilities on the blog which is viewed by thousands of people is just as bad as giving an errant forecast. it is still the dissemination of information.  

This event will be half over in 24 hours , yet you can't even post an accurate snow fall forecast map for the viewing area. This 1-4 just does not cut it with me.  NWS has already set forth its forecast in detail right wrong it's there and will be relied upon by many people as it should be.

Even the individual who called for no snow on the 10:00 news last night has set forth a snowfall map on the 6:00 forecast tonite. This individual should have eaten his words but he did not.

I give him half credit for posting a snowfall map at 6:00 tonight something that you for whatever reason that decided not to do.  Most accurate perhaps I was just beginning to increase my confidence in this station to have it taken away by the lack of a forecast map with some wiggle room on the 6:00 news.

As for the LRC I feel that is valid theory and have printed out from three weeks ago your 45 day forecast to compare it to what actually happens from 24 to 48 hours out.

I realize I sprang on the scene with an alarmist post six weeks ago , however, when you are 24 hours away from the middle of a snow event and you're the only TV station and Kansas City that is not posted a a graphic displaying the amount of snow that will fall over the viewing area , something is wrong with this picture. not all your viewers have the ability to stay up and watch the 10:00 news , some have to be at work at 4:00 AM and go to bed well before the 10:00 report and will therefore go to bed and informed based upon your forecast they will be forced to rely upon NWS another TV stations forecasts .  Yours might be more accurate and better however is not available until 10:00 and therefore you miss large portion of your audience not all people have a computer that allows them to watch it online.  I hope you take these factors into consideration as these storms will continue to plod across the Midwest and this cycle and then again in March.      Signing off maybe once and for all >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>       **************** I know Gary is at dinner right now and I really can't disagree with you more and find your post way off base. You are talking about someone that laid out a forecast 45 days in advance. A weather team that is always on top of any situation. I mentioned this past weekend that accumulation would be possible Wednesday. Then last night Gary went 1-4" for the viewing area. Then tonight at 5pm Gary put a snowfall graphic on the air detailing how much he thinks will fall. Gary put the bands in 1" increments...not bands of 1-3" or 2-5" which other stations often do to cover themselves. We are and will be the weather leader in Kansas City because we have confidence in our forecast and love to share our knowledge with others. As I mentioned earlier Gary and Jeff were not on the blog as much as usual the past 36 hours because of new weather computers being installed and the training that goes along with them. Also, Gary was at a school talk today. Hopefully you had a chance to watch the newscasts tonight because Gary laid out a pretty straightforward forecast for the entire area. He'll be back on the blog this evening. Jeremy           

gary,

i just have the feeling that there will be less rain than advertised at the moment...not saying there wont be any rain in the viewing area, but i think the snow line will be a little further SE by the onset.  also, i believe that there will be moisture streaming into iowa, but i think the bulk of the energy will pass farther south through missouri.  

Pressure is on for the NAM run...

stjoelawyer,

i saw a snowfall map on kshb at 1721 this evening...it said 3 inches in st. joe, with just NE of there getting 4".

gary, did you get my mail?

I saw a snowfall map...and their are a lot of variables...as someone who went to KU for met. I can honestly say by your statement you have no idea what it is like to really forecast the weather, it really isn't that easy, it sounds to me you would just like have some numbers thrown your way, I would prefer someone say this could happen  or this b\c its honest I don't want some one telling 6 inches then I get nothing that sucks, at least now I know something may happen or I could get missed. I would rather they be honest with me than throw me a security blanket for comfort. I guess for people like me who have watched the weather and been fascinated practically my whole life even as a kid, your statement was rude and shows your own arrogance, anyone can be a couch weatherman, but i'd like to see you try to go through all that have to...just my thoughts.

I don't envy anyone that has to predict the future being what ever the format.Politics (we saw recently how wrong that can be) the stock market, and i'm sure weather with its ever changing varibles and different computer models , has to fall into this catagory. I think what we need to look at is  who is right most of the time, who REALLY cares about the area and the people within, and when i do this, even if their not 100% right on all the time, i still find myself drawn to this blog and the professionals who run it... Just my thoughts

snownado! hahaha, hilarious!

Any chance of thudersnow tomorrow?

okay, I might be losing my mind, but I swore I saw a snow total map on at 5 and 6.  And I was disappointed in the totals!!  :(

you did weathermom we all did I don't know what he talking about.

KU eh? hmm wonder how that went. I met the department up there and sat down with one of the professors. The guy was a idiot! He bashed other schools and told me that meteorologists wont be needed in the future and that if i really wanted to major in meteorology. He also had some other smart things to say.  From then on I hated KU's program.
That is why I am at Mizzou. They have one of the best programs, and will continue to get better.

LoL, I think I know who your talking about, he is a bad example for the program really it isn't bad at all the math is hard but I enjoy it...

I hope the storm stays weak, wet and to the south. I'm starting to doubt any good snow for those in the south this winter. Even in OP we've been without decent snow all winter(decent=5"+). Gary, is there any hope?:(

Yes, Gard did show a snowfall total at 5 PM.  I did not watch at 6 PM.

It does not look good for those of us south of the river.

Kristi

South had all the snow last year. North is getting all the snow this year. Wonder if KC will get it all next year?

I am sure that with the active pattern coming up and arctic air near by we will all have some good snow before its over, I think one of these time the favored band will get really dumped on 12 plus and kc will get 6 or 8" I am watching for that storm, I know will be here in the next 3 weeks...fingers crossed, and don't give up hope yet form tomorrow...its still forming and not a done deal yet.

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Great point!  This is what I have been trying to get across.  And, you are right about this storm hasn't happened yet.  It will likely be rain at first though for Kansas City and areas to the south.

Gary

who knows who will get the snow, thats the fun of it, right????

New NAM rolling in...lets hope for a south trend

I've got a question for you model readers.  When I look at the GFS, what does UTC stand for?

Jeremy/Gary,

What kind of new computers? (yes, I'm nosy :) )

 Hello Gary and Weather Team, I know you said 2-3" and still up in the air on the track, how much does it look like here in metro? I know one at a time, more snow on Friday any accumulations with that system???

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Right now we are thinking 2 to 3 inches north and 1 to 2 inches south.  Warmer air is supposed to move in during the day, Wednesday.  Will it warm up to near 40, or will it stay near 33.  This could be huge on whether it changes over earlier.

Gary

i did not have the chance to see the 5 or 6 o'clock news, i was at work, i replayed weather plus three times and never say the map you are talking of.  i saw a forecast by gary and a cold long range forecast.  if there is something i can click on other that weather plus to get a replay of the 5 or 6 o'clock news please guide me to it.

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We are updating NBC Action Weather Plus in minutes.  So you can check it out, and then the 10 PM newscast will be even more updated.

Gary

As of his latest map Stjoe,  looks like the heavy band will set up the same location as before.. from Topeka to St Joe through Iowa.   Maybe 4"+ for you and 1-2" south of I-70.   Its all about the warm air battling the cold surge.  Alot can change from tonight to tomorrow, but its safe to say St Joe wont be left out!

My question is where is the map so that I can view it?

Stjoelawyer, do you get Weather Plus on your satellite or cable system?  If not, you can always view it on-line on the default weather page. (http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weatherplus/default.aspx).  I hope this helps.

"This is related to that storm [previous cycle], but this one is stronger! So, it will produce a lot more precipitation."

Gary...while this part in November did not yield alot of moisture, it was a somewhat meaningful storm span, as it was in this period that ended the dry spell that spanned many days.

If you choose to go back a prior cycle to October 2nd, it yielded .78 inches.  And should you even want to go one more back, August 8th had .86 inches.

People wonder how I could come up with 4-8 inches of snow 17 days in advance.

Just blend the trends.  Look at about .5 - .9 inches...apply as standard snow ratio of 8:1 or 10:1, and because of the tendacy of the longwave, I took 8:1 thinking there may be some warmer air...

.5-.9 at 8:1 = 4-7.2 inches.  4-8 inches was my forecast for this storm for the area

That is..if anyone is interested in how the surface trending - AN EXTENTION OF THE LRC - may work.

If my totals are off, I would go to point to my interpretation rather than the cycle as it will have yielded precipitation 4 times in a row within one day of a 54 day cycle.

Crazy, huh?

When will it warm back up

Nice Scott i like that theory i think ill go with you on this more snow the better

<<<<<<Once again I viewed it and there is no graphic>>>>

One thing I am starting to become more and more concerned about is the 22nd through the 25th time frame. GFS paints a monster of a storm over Arkansas (over 3" QPF). If this moisture shifts up north about two hundred miles, oh boy! The only catch is if the moisture shifts north, will the modified moist air as well? If so, how deep will the warm air be (or how shallow will the Artic air be?). If things come together right, it may create another ice situation for the area - and with more cold air at the surface, we could be in for a bad one. If it's cold - well theres that area wide 6"+ snow!

And if memory serves me right, this would be in tune with one of the other so-called Ice Storms that flaked out for Kansas City, so that adds more validity to the concern.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_240l.gif

stjoelawyer, sometimes it's the browser.  I prefer Mozilla Firefox, but sometimes I have to switch over to Internet Explorer to be able to see things.  Hope this helps.

Scott I'm very interested to follow you're surface trending.  I've pulled NWS historical data and think you're on to something.  I would really like to see 4-8 inches.  Will know more 24 hours from now.

Look, I don't want to lose sight of what is important...heavy snow!  However, even I find stjoelawyer's two posts rude, inaccurate and a waste of my time reading...and that first one was long!

stjoelawyer said:  "Most accurate perhaps I was just beginning to increase my confidence in this station to have it taken away by the lack of a forecast map with some wiggle room on the 6:00 news."

then stjoelawyer said:  "i did not have the chance to see the 5 or 6 o'clock news"

WHOA!  I saw the tail end of the 6:00 news...missed the actual weather segment...but did see Gary at the end of the broadcast saying some accumulating snow, possibly heavy at times Wed. night, was in the forecast.  So I did not know if a snowfall map had been displayed during the actual weather segment or not.  However, I trusted what stjoelawyer said and gathered from his comment that he watched the 6:00 news and a snowfall map had not been shown.  Then he posts later that he did not actually watch the 6:00 news!  And goes on about not everybody having a PC to watch the newscast/weather online -- shoot, I do not have weather plus with the very basic (Lifeline) cable I have with Time Warner!  So where does he get off with the not everybody has PCs or the ability to stay up late?

Interestingly enough, what I did NOT see in his second, and much shorter post, was an apology to the weather team for his comments and to me and the other readers for having to read his first (long, inaccurate, rude) post.

Now we return to regular programming.  Bring on the snow!

scott I really thank you're on to something I do think 4 or 5 inches is very doable especially the north sides.

well, I can go to bed since my area is only going to get flakes or a coating...Grandview/Belton is way to south for anything more. Everyone have a good night!!

normally the last forcast is on weather plus i was just able to see it at 2100 hrs i usually watch it at work at 1845 hrs or so that was not the case today.  i saw the long ranger and the school thing that are featured. . . feel i have nothing to appoligize for what is normally there was not tonite.  OK it was on TV  but not on the web/blog.....both important sources of info.

well the new data is trickling in (GFS)...

NEW DATA

 Hello Weather Team, I was wondering, What is the most snowfall in one snow event in metro KC???

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25" in a March blizzard in 1912.

Gary

JayC ... I think you may have attributed a post by stjoeattorney to stjoelawer. I don't think they are the same person.

Stjoeattorny and stjoelawyer are the same. He's made that statement before

gary,
i will trade you no snow in sedalia for an active spring. think you can make it possible? just kidding. but will this trend ever switch more southerly?

I am anxiouslly awaiting for the snow. I'm hoping that it snows more than predicted. I wouldn't argue about a day off.  Any chance of thundersnow this time around?

 f00dl3 said:
One thing I am starting to become more and more concerned about is the 22nd through the 25th time frame. GFS paints a monster of a storm over Arkansas (over 3" QPF). If this moisture shifts up north about two hundred miles, oh boy! The only catch is if the moisture shifts north, will the modified moist air as well? If so, how deep will the warm air be (or how shallow will the Artic air be?). If things come together right, it may create another ice situation for the area - and with more cold air at the surface, we could be in for a bad one.  

J L (on "the other" blog) said as much a couple of days ago.
He said he had a real concern for an ice situation towards end of Jan.

Scott...or anyone...do you see this showing up yet?r

It's gonna snow.....snow....snow....I will take any amount. In taking care of my horses tonite, they were staying very close to barn. I guess they are hunkering down for the storm. Everyone have a good and safe day tomorrow...

I really hope there is not a chance for another ice situation. I do not want to go another week without power. We are still cleaning up from that last one.  I just talked to someone this past weekend who just now had powered restore. I can't imagine no power for 4 weeks. It can snow all it wants, just no more ice.

Gary -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_024.shtml

Look at the 24-30hr.  The 850 on up is cold enough.  The surface temps are just near freezing.  I like where the 850 vort is and what appears to be nice PVA at that level.  I am still thinking snow turning over around 5-7PM for the metro area - sooner NW.

If we can have temps under say - 35F, I think we see big wet sloppy flakes, but snow all the same.  Without the PVA and forcing - it would be more rain like.

What do you think?  Two frames of near .25 QPF...

We know NW will get theirs..but is it just cold enough this time with the moisture transport and with the 500mb?

Its a toughy...there will be quite a spread on this storm from NW to SE.  

Isn't kinda de ja vue regarding the location of the 850?  Reminds me of how close it could be to us getting it this time...

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Scott,

If you can try to call the 850 vort, an 850 low, and reserve the mention of vorticity to the 500 mb level.  The 850 low is taking a good track, but it is really a strong 850 mb baroclinic zone that will slowly move through that could create the heavier snow.  A lot of fun and frustration on Wednesday.

Gary