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i am watching and  waiting

We promise to watch  :)

I'm waiting for the lastest....

WOW! Goood job gary. Hey, we will see what happens! I'm in Blue Springs and will try to give updates on accumulation 4 t'morr

Going to do the SNOW DANCE with fingers crossed here on north side of Olathe.....AFTER I watch Gary !

Do you think it will snow earlier in Leavenworth? How high do you predict the temps will be in Leavenworth tomorrow? Colder air should come in quicker, am i right?

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Yes, it will be colder a lot quicker than areas to the southeast.

Gary

Did not see the weather what was the forecast by Gary?

HMM, what are the chances we still have this "warm air at the surface" problem in February down south? I was kinda hoping it would be cold enough this time for it to all be snow, but still look's like we are still dealing with it. I really shouldn't complain because we are still getting some sort of precip. I can't remember but it seem's to me that last year when we had all the snow that the northern part wasn't getting any precip-is that right?

Carryover - yes, the 850 low.  I see what you are saying about the baroclinic.  It does kinda stick in the area for a bit, doesn't it.  

I think there will certainly be a sharp line dividing the haves and the have nots.  Likely, just to the SE of the slow moving b-zone.  Isn't that normally where the warm air resides?

i have a feeling that Lee's Summit is just far enough south for the snow to change over late. am i right? very frustrating :(

Gary:

Good evening to you sir!!! Been a pretty crazy night at the old abode so I have kind of been out of the loop a bit-just catching up!!

A couple random observations and like Doc said to Lightening-I hope it sticks!!!

1. The GFS soundings on both 12Z and 0Z have Topeka all snow by about 5:00 P.M. so I figure Lawrence should be there by about 6:00 or so. The NAM is about 2 hours later than the GFS but considering all the troubles it has had for this area this winter I am kind of leaving it alone. That is what the models are showing However to point 2

2. The progression of the front: Base on the 4Z observations and looking at metar data, the front looks to be situated between Phiilipsburg, Kansas and Beloit Kansas-it has moved pretty far since 3:00 when it was still in the Dakotas-and man some of the wind gusts in Wyoming-wow!! For me, where this front is located tomorrow morning will tell the tale. For sure, the colder air appears to be lagging behind the front somewhat, but once it passes, the temps. sure aren't going to rise any more!! If in the morning the front is on Topeka's door step then I think we have game on and an interesting day-if it is still by Philipsburg, then we have an interesting day for different reasons!!!

3. With point 2, it does seem that on the 4Z, the front is getting kind of hung up-it appears that there is a "bow" for lack of a better term kind of developing on it-however, I just think that taking past episodes into consideration, once these fronts begin to move, they are hard to slow down. The good news imho is that we do have a front that is there and very well visible-we are not waiting for the cold air to just appear as they had to in New York Sunday night-the front like Luigi stated is saying look at me here I am!!!!

4. However this all pans out, it is going to be fascinating to watch and follow-and considering how I personally think it really shows the LRC it is even more so!!! What a deal!!!!

Have a great night and I hope you get some sleep-you for sure deserve it and I hope the new computers are working out!!! My hope is that I wake up in the morning and see the front on Topeka's door step-when we had the big thunder snow/sleet 3 weeks ago, the sign post was that at 10:00 on Friday night the front was already through Topeka-what will tomorrow morning show???

Bill in full front watching mode in Lawrence

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Bill,

Great analysis.  I will be tracking this front in the morning very closely.  Yes, the computer training today just about wiped us out.  I am now out for the night as I could be up all tomorrow night.  It is hard to sleep while it is snowing.

Gary

Great surface analysis, Bill!

Wow an unusual time where you are rooting for a "weaker" solution!  So now you have Joe town in the 4- almost 5 inch range, well tomorrow looks to be fun, and then the COLD moves in!

I will be saying a prayer for 4-8 inches within the region.

;-)

My Snowfall Forecast:

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

Hey Gary,

Way to call it months in advance!  Of course we all know it's going to get cold and the chances for snow go up this late in January but the difference is the trend and the cycle which you so faithfully place forward.  8)

From someone who lives in KC but travels a few days every week, I come to rely on your blogs to see how the weather is going to to progress when I am on the road.  I didn't see the update you promised and rely on that since I can't watch the newscast.  I know you are busy, but just know some of us who are not at home read your blog to see what the weather is going to do tomorrow (when I fly home in the early evening).  I am still waiting for your update.  8)  

ps, I know you stay busy.  I appreciate your work and efforts!

-Ken

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Ken,

Sorry it took so long.  It has been a very hard day.

Gary

Crossed Fingers that Olathe could get 6" of Snow.

Gary,

How much of computers do you know?

I think the saying should be "If you want to learn weather, you had better learn computers!"

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Andrew,

Learning everything you can about computers will help you in more than just weather. But, learning how to use them can be just as important in learning what makes the computer work.

Gary

In reading the 00z MOS GFS, am I reading it correctly to say the following?

St. Joe  - 6 inches
KMCI - 5 inches
Downtown - 3 inches
Lee's Summit - 3 inches
Olathe - 4 inches
Lawrence - 4 inches
Coffeeville - 6 inches
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Scott,

This product has not gotten one right this season.  Be careful.  It may be right for some but not for many others.  I hope it is though!

Gary

I am still hoping we get at least 2" inches out of this for Marceline...We still have time though and anything could happen...

Gary,

      By the way, Are you going to wear your snow vest tomorrow??  :)

I think we would all be happy with those amounts Scott :)

It really is amazing looking back at your chart on the 9th and watching the models line up.    

Thanks for the best updates around!

hey gary my girlfriend goes to school up in maryville and is comin down to chillicothe to visit on friday. you think roads will be ok by than or should she wait?

Randy,

The real question is, why is she visiting you and you not visiting her?

Anyways, roads should be fine on Friday.  There may be a few flurries or light snow up by Maryville Friday afternoon and a little bit of blowing snow, but the road crews will have had at least 24 hours to clear everything off.  Just advise her to take her time and she'll make it down to you just fine!

Does the fact that the low overnight never got below 39 complicate things?

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Yes,  it is not a good sign, but I am not that surprised.  As soon as the cold front moves through it will drop enough for snow to rapidly begin falling, but when will the front move through? 

Gary

Gary:

Good warmish morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 37 degrees after rising one degree in the last hour. What a fascinating day today is going to be!!! Great graphics on the Blog and hey, have fun with the new computers-I always get a kick when I finally break down an buy a new computer-it is a stress to set everything up but once it is done, it is awesome!!!

A few more random observations and as always, I hope a few of them make sense LOL!!!

1. Looking at the 11Z surface observations it appears that the front is currently located from St. Joesph back to North of Topeka to Salina line. St. Joseph is reporting NW winds as is Manhattan, Kansas and Concordia, Kansas is reporting NW winds of about 25 MPH. No doubt, this front has a punch!!!

2. Satelite this morning (Limb Cracking LOL): One can see the energy diving down to our west but the other thing I noticed was that we are getting a pretty strong flow of moisture/warm air comming in off that thunder storm complex in the Gulf and combining this with the 11Z surface observations it seems that that warm flow is hampering the progression of the front some what-will that continue or will the front be able to stay on the move??

3. 9Z RUC: Looking at this, it appears that the front will indeed stall where it is for about the next 8 hours as the Topeka soundings stay fairly warm until late this afternoon. However, I think the run is a bit misintialized as it did not have St. Joesph into a NW surface wind until almost 1:00 this afternoon-obviously they are already there-the RUC at the 9Z run was bit too slow with the front. Will be interesting to see what the 12Z RUC comes up with

4. In the end, what a fascinating yet pull your hair out type day we have here-we have a strong cold front that is with in 100 miles of us saying look at me here I am (which is still better than waiting for cold air to just appear) but also saying I come down I can go back in a sneering sort of way!!! There is snow out in Western Kansas and it does appear that the low is forming as we speak and man it is cold back to our North and West. But where will our prankster front go in the next 5 hours?? I still think it keeps moving even with that warmer air streaming in off the gulf-winds are just too strong behind this for it to sit 100 miles out or even retrograde back for the next 9 hours-it has kept moving all night even if in a slower/weaker fashion and I think the models are still about 4-5 hours off on the timing. For sure, it is better where the front is now than if it was still hung up in Western Kansas this morning!!!

I hope some of this made a little sense!!! Will be fascinating to watch this for sure and I hope you can get some time to relax today though I know it is going to be a crazy one!!!! Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The front better move.  It is January for crying out loud.  Think about this set up for the spring. 

Gary

Is this storm looking more impresive or less impresive?

Gary:

Just about to head out the door but looking at the 12Z surface charts, it appears that the front is still on the move-it looks like it is about to enter Topeka and has now cleared St. Joesph and it looks more "forcefull" on the charts i.e. it appears to be more well defined than at 11Z-I think??? Does that even make sense?? LOL

I'm off campus today so I will have to check on things the old fashioned way: which way are the trees and flags blowing and what do the clouds look like!!!!

Have a great day and I do hope you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff get a chance today for some down time-it is going to be a ride!!! As Scott would say: fastening my buckle LOL!!!

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Bill,

The front is still moving, but how fast will it get here?  We are tracking it.

Gary

7:15am in Maryville and temp. holding at 31 degrees.

Looks like another evening of scooping snow...what's the story on the wind?  NWS has us in a blowing snow advisory with 30mph this afternoon.  That would make our 4+ inches even more interesting...

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Yes it will!  Let us know what you experience.

Gary

THIS IS AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Gary:

Sorry, just me again!!

We just had a small band of sleet/rain move through and so I looked at the radar-this stuff popped up out of no where!! I think I got a glimpse of lightening to the NW and it appears that these showers have formed just ahead of the front in this warm moist air that has been funneling up here all night. Man-one hour ago, it was clear as a bell!! What a crazy morning!! I'm not sure at all about this next thought but I think this band of precip. is good in that it shows that the front is indeed on its way in-is that even close to on the right track???

What a morning!!! You mentioned Spring-I can't help to think about what the radar would look like right now if we were in the 60's with this front on our door step!! Wow!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The front is moving very slowly, and there is a chance of a thunderstorm, so you may have seen a flash of lightning.  It may be more frustrating for us to the south and east.

Gary

Wont heavier rain and possibly t\storm help move the front along?

I saw two flashes of lightening on the way to work, to the NW.  Heading to work Overland Park from Olathe.  It feels like spring compared to yestereday morning!  
I am happy with myself, I did not lose sleep over this one, because I know there is more coming.  I was suprised at the warmth outside this morning.  This should be an exciting day!  I wish the front would drop in faster though!  Two of the bigger storms prior this year, were slower to get here and about wiped me out staying up waiting for them, lol.  I hope you had your five hours of sleep Gary!

Goodmorning all! I just talked to my Aunt in northeast Ks, 6, min from St joe and she said they have been having some sleet off and on for the past 30 min.

man  this stufff is really pouring white in the north land