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Isn't the cold front moving a little earlier than expected?

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No, it is really right on schedule!

Gary

Great update Gary- we will be on "flake watch" late this afternoon-

So far, the branch you went out on using the LRC to forecast with is rapidly growing to a nice size limb.

You are a bright guy and have a great team.

Thanks for making the weather so interesting and fun.

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We are glad you are enjoying it.  Let's hope today doesn't end up in frustration.

Gary

Let it SNOW.............

Sounds to me like it is not moving in earlier.  How dissappointing

Nice blog -

Heavysnow - The front is about on target, but it is the cooler air that was projected later.  It seems it might be coming a bit quicker based on the surface obs.  

You guys are awesome. Great job with the blogs today. I am hoping for more than an inch but will take what I can get. I will drive to the snow if I have too. One thing is for sure.....I am not looking forward to leaving work Saturday and Sunday am with those cold temps, or having to stand their and scrape my car...YIKES!!!!!! Have a great day!
Monica
Pleasanton

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Monica,

I still have hopes for you to get a bigger one next month?  We will see how things set up.

Gary

hi gary, team... just curious if there's a chance this change-over could arrive earlier than the 5 to 6 pm timeline you mentioned. i assume there's always a chance actually, but wondering about your oonfidence level. not trying to get you to commit; just want to plan my late afternoon!

JPnKC... nice analogy on the branch/limb!! lol...

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There is always a chance, but that time frame is what I am confident in right now.  It will changeover earlier the farther northwest you live.

Gary

So there's no reason to worry the metro is going to see snow earlier than the 5-7pm time line?

Weather Team,

I know this follows the pattern of this years LRC, but are we ever going to have an all snow event instead of staring out the window for hours waiting for the changeover?

Thanks!

Brent

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Once this Arctic air gets here there is a much better chance of only snow.  It could happen Friday or more likely Sunday through Tuesday.

Gary

It does look like the change over will happen earlier with the latest observations just to our north.....temps are dropping, already 28 in Maryville

AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SNOW ALREADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! please.

Snow Vest! Snow Vest! Snow Vest!

Turned to snow i would say about 30 minutes ago or so here in leavenworth.

My parents want to travel from north (Cameron) down here to KC either this weekend or next weekend.  This weekend looks very cold, and might snow.  What about next weekend?  I have seen Gary and Scott both mention 1/25 as a potential weather event.

Ivsnow, what part of Leavenworth you in cause I just talked to my cousin and she lives there, but no snow yet.

I plow snow on the streets and I was wondering what kind of snow will this be. Will it be wet, dry, or fluffy snow??? Just curiuos if any one knows.

Thanks. **************** Wet to start...a little fluffier to end.

Kellyann, i live close to metropolitan,(the prison), it's not coming down heavy, but has been snowing for while now. I was changing a tie-rod end and could feel the temp dropping also.  Still snowing as i am typing this, went to window and checked to make sure,lol ************** Thanks for the report. Check out Brett...the show is on now!

Ok Ivsnow, I will tell her to be on the lookout! She is on the other side of Leavenworth. Thanks for that!

Light snow falling at Fort Leavenworth. Winds appear to be calm. Could the front be here a little early? ************ Thanks for the report. The front may slow down a bit this afternoon as the surface low lifts NE. Keep us updated on the snow and any accumulation.

So..looking at the obs, the windshift happened at 9AM at KMCI, though the temp has not yet really dropped.  Seems of other obs, that the cold air is not real far behind the front.

Also, looking at the ruc soundings, it appears that snow could fall at KMCI at 1PM.  It will see be a bit warm at the surface, but within bounds...I think.

For Olathe, the column is filling from 800mb down, but only comes together around maybe 2100Z.  The problem is the surface temp...it is progged to be far to warm for snow.  It may have to wait until closer to 0Z for it to be fully snow.

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Scott,

It is only the lower 2,000 feet that is above freezing.  Once our surface temperature drops to 34 or lower it will change to snow.  It will still be a few more hours, even for KCI.

Gary

Well....Pretty frustrating to watch the radar this morning...Nothing new of course, but here we sit with a really nice stream of moisture flowing in and, as usual, we are missing one component.  This time it's just too warm.  By the time the cold air arrives in KC, the vast majority of the moisture we see from this storm will have already come and gone.  Nothing new there.  On a bright note, it does seem to be playing out just as the 41 wx team said it would, so kudos to you guys.....This is also nothing new.  Will keep hoping for the big one...

Matt. ************* Keep in mind a surface low and vort are yet to move through. Still a good chance of snow later today(if you aren't seeing it already depending where you live). For KC the transition will likely occur this PM.

Few sprinkles and a high of 40 in Belton Mo...come on cold air *************** The race is on:)

Big fat flakes in Lawrence. Love the snow! Hopefully they will have campus clear tomorrow!

The reported cold temps for Sat and Sun is a good 10-15 degrees colder than what the NWS says and "other" channels. Is there a chance that the Artic Air will not be as bad as being reported here? Worried about my little kid goats. :)

We have a band of sleet and light rain this morning from 7:45 to about 8:30 then everything stopped.  The temperature at the time was just above 34° .  Then around 9:00 we had large snowflakes falling off and on flurries more less.  In looking at the radar it seems as if the precipitation is having a difficult time getting north of I-70.  The temperature is 31.8° now see any and the large snow flakes have changed over to a very fine light snow.

I had a fear that I did not voice last night; that the colder air came in stronger than expected and pushed the heavy precipitation to south. On radar there is some good development in north central KS seems to be moving primarily to the east while the precipitation in eastern KS seems to be moving very slowly NNNE.  

Will these two converge and create a heavy band at that location?            

bring on the snow!!! unfortunately  the southern portion of the area gets missed again :( oh well , just will have to wait until the next snowstorm.  It would be nice to see some snow though, even if it does not stick.  Of course knowing me I would like massive snowfalls LOL ex: dec 1st 2006 (18 inches)!!! that was fun.  Once thing is for sure next week there is not question that it is cold enough to snow.  Us down here in the southern viewing area is just going to have to wait for the next one.  I'll let you know if we get anything.  

40 in Olathe still, come on temps go down.

It's safe to say this is just a little storm compared to the really strong storm that starts later next week?

33.6 degrees in Leavenworth, with a mixed bag of precip.

Raining in Lee's Summit.  Lot's of low clouds, and very foggy.  I don't think there will be much if any snow accumulations here in LS.  If we are lucky, we might get 1/2" to 3/4" of snow.  Current temperature is 39 degrees.  Not looking for much of anything.  Pretty much the same story as what has been happenin all year!  I just don't think the south part of the metro will get much snow at all for the rest of the winter.  I could be wrong, but the way these storms keep tracking, I don't expect us to get mcuh more.  Maybe an inch or two here and there, but not mcuh more than that.  Maybe next year we will get something.

The cold air looks very nice for the weekend.  It will feel wonderful.  Gary, when do you think our next chance of a "good" snow will be?  Any time soon?  Alright, talk to you all later.

Jacob

farmgirl, this teams forecast is very possible.  On Saturday, we will have a surface high park overhead.  With calm winds and any additional cooling from snowpack, it might go lower.  The latest GFS progs it to be every bit of -2 if not cooler in the region for Sat night.

Stjoeatt - I am not sure I have seen the surge of cold air as it relates to this storm.  It seems to be just about right on track.  Gary mentioned it earlier..there are upper air dynamics yet to materialize that will that will get this going.

The moisture you see streaming NE is in response to the frontal boundary.  This is what will get Iown and points NE in there snow.  Ours will come from the deformation band on the back side which is where you see see over Central KS.

When the 850 gets a bit closer when the temps cool, there is a nice potential there as well as the 850 low could have us in the right spot for some very good lift.

It is still very early in this...

*32.9 and falling

amazing what can happen in 5 minutes. dropped .7 degrees and changed from mostly rain to all snow

Still just spitting rain at 291 and 24 highway.  I'm ready for another batch of snow (even if this one is a small one) but I'm really ready to get hammered next month!  Gotta love that LRC:)

DL

Anything different from the 11:00 show?  

Down to 36 at KCI, 38 in Eastern Jackson County

After not doing much for the last hour or so we have moderate snow again here in downtown Topeka.  Nothing sticking yet. The temp is 33-34F and could get down to 32F soon I think.  An area of fairly heavy precip is moving in from the south on radar.

Related to stjoeattorney's post, I am beginning to wonder if the heaviest snowfall will eventually set up from north central KS then along the KS-NE border into MO and points east based on radar. Also, on regional radar there looks like a little dry slot may be forming in South Central KS.  I've seen this before where the heaviest precip moves through here quickly from the south and then sets up to the north to produce the heavy snowfall. I'm just not sure yet ;)

I really think you have something here with your theory.  For anyone to go out on a limb 45 days ago and predict this, I don't understand why others don't follow.  While I know its only a theory and not fact, it seems to stand on its own if you ask me.  Once again Gary, you have proved, to me at least, that this theory does exist for the second year in a row.  

Keri

2 inches in Olathe expected, that's not very much.  We've not received much accumulation all winter.  I'm ready for some 6 inch + snowfalls!!  I hope Olathe gets lucky sometime this winter with deep snow.    

First time commentor, long time reader.  I just wanted to thank you and your whole team for making weather interesting and accurate.  Many of us who have to be out in the weather really appreciate how we can depend on the NBC Action Weather Team to let us know how it really is going to be.  I would only request one thing during the rainy seasons, that you could maybe add in a little more about anticipated rainfall totals.
Thanks,
Keep up the GREAT work.

Hey Gary...is this the storm from your 45 forecast?

"The second storm will arrive around January 12th -15th.  This one could come as a very cold air mass is moving in from Canada."

Yes it is Scott

To anyone, particularly those on the Weather Team, or out and about:  I'm hearing rumbles up here that the roads are getting very slick and in Liberty they are already closing off streets because of them being too slick.  Can anyone verify?

I work downtown and have to drive up north near Liberty tonight at 5:00 and now I'm starting to freak out. *************** Closing off streets? Haven't heard that, but if someone can verify and give exact roads it would help out. Jeremy

hmm well..I say...1.1 inches here in Harrisonville will fall....
probably being optimistic...
another one inch snowstorm lol....but at least its nice to see snow....since it does get old looking at rain all Jabuary...lol

I just wish all this rain right now was snow....In January...it should start as snow....

can't complain if we get an inch..although a good wet 6 inches would be appreciated...

whats the chance of snow to the south, on friday and monday Gary??

Brent

Snowing in Platte City.  It's not sticking to the roads, but it is starting to stick to grassy areas. *********** Thanks for the report! Keep em' coming! Jeremy

Belton area update...the temps have back off one degree in the last hour , down to 39...I detect a trend!!!!!  Still dry except for a few drizzles here and there, just enough to wet the sidewalk. ************** Thanks for the update. The cold air will eventually reach you! Jeremy

I heard someone mention that there may be an ice setup near the end of this month....what are your thoughts on this Gary?.......could the storm we had on the 10th - 11th of december be back later this month? with colder temps?....I know its hard to nail it down what type of precipitation we will experience this far out...but do you believe there is any potential for another ice event this winter?......thanks

Brent ***************** Brent, There is always 'potential' for things to happen. I'm sure Gary would love to address your question about an ice storm happening again this winter season, but if you can save this question and bring it up tomorrow or Friday when the weather is calmer he will get back to you. Keep us updated on your snow total:) Jeremy

Brent - when in a season where temperatures can average between 25-35 degrees, determining the type of precip long range is difficult.  I have learned this lesson.

jeffw, if/when we get enough cold air here in Topeka to keep the precip snow we'll send any extra down your way...;) ************ Please send some towards Brent too. Jeremy

we have a solid dusting in Leavenworth. : ) snowing nicely. ************* If you could...send Gary & Jeff a picture of your snow later this afternoon, maybe they will be able to use it in the blog or on-air. That goes for anyone. This storm or the next...we love pictures! Jeremy

"The week of the 21st is the trick...and I'm increasingly concerned about some ice set-ups...in a sense you'll want the cold air to REALLY get thick around here...so that IF anything were to fall we'd be dealing with snow and not ice...the ratios would be incredible...here is my concern...the day 10 EURO...which won't be right but it's VERY interesting to me..."


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this is a quote from another forecaster......I am wondering Gary...if this is about the time frame that you expect the storm from the 10th/11th of Dec. will come back?....I am very inexperienced about the LRC....so if you could help me here....'

thanks.

Brent **************** Brent, Next week's possible storm would be the repeat of around December 1. That is the storm that we were the only one's to forecast 60s and others had ice and snow. If I remember correctly the same place you got the quote above was forecasting 39 for a high when we had 60. I remember that very well because I was filling in for Gary during that storm. At this point we can't rule out any type of precip., but hopefully the cold air wins and you see a good snow too! Jeremy

MikeL   I'll take it :)

Brent,

That would be too soon for the Dec. 8 -11 storm(s) to come back.  Target date for that long storm would be around the first week of Feb.  What is interesting is the timing would correlate with the Dec. 1 storm.  That is the one where it started as freezing rain, but then temps shot up into the 60s.  Could this storm raise temps to a level where we have an ice storm instead of snow????  Not a question for me.  Better to ask Gary tomorrow.

If we get a dusting here,,,I'll send a picture to you guys Jeremy...

thanks also Jeremy...I'll ask again tomorrow.

bring on the snow!'

maybe...now?...lol *********** Sorry...read your most recent post...not this one. Same thing, just ask the question tomorrow when Gary's on the blog. Jeremy

"the same place you got the quote above was forecasting 39 for a high when we had 60. I remember that very well because I was filling in for Gary during that storm. At this point we can't rule out any type of precip., but hopefully the cold air wins and you see a good snow too! Jeremy"
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yes they were....but they did express a concern for the (almost (major ice storm) a week before it happened....

can someone refresh me on the date of the major ice storm in St Joseph?.....was it not the 10th/11th?......I think it was the week after maybe?...or was it?....lol

then I can find out when that storm would be returning.... ****************** I guess I'd rather have the forecast right 4-7 days out than tell people there will be an ice/snow storm. We are done discussing that event so let's move on. The focus today is on the ongoing storm here with rain and snow. Ask Gary about another ice storm in the next couple of days. Thanks. Jeremy

I know you don't want to talk about the past...especially when theres a mini snowstorm occurring...but the past can give us clues to the future...especially when we use the LRC.

Not much to talk about down here though.,.. ************ This storm is far from done...hang in there. Jeremy

The ice storm started the night of Dec 10th.  Trust me, I remember......I was out of power for five days!  I could do without another ice storm for a long long time.  We still have piles and piles of branches everywhere here in town.    

Thank you sunsgirl....I just hope it doesn't happen to you guys again this winter!

(I'm not a meteorogist...I am just saying I hope it doesn't happen again....)

Brent

Its snowing in Platte City right now, and we are only 5 minutes from the airport. ********** KCI had rain/snow at 1pm. Jeremy

I have been following this blog now for about 1.5 months and am finding the LRC very interesting.  I really enjoy reading everyones comments and am looking forward to this evenings snow.  I used to watch those other stations for the weather forecast but NO MORE!

It is now 32 degrees with light snow near 45 and 435 Highway.

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Wow, now you have made our day.  Even if it is one person at a time, it is great to hear that you made the switch.  One of our goals is to show Kansas City that there actually is a forecast that is accurate, can be counted on and also a place where you can learn something about the weather.  We aren't always correct, but we have been on a long hot streak this winter.  Thanks again!

Gary

The snow has been on again, off again here in St. Joe, I too have noticed the precip. having a tough time filling in here in NW Missouri and the precip. still looks "showery" instead of solid, is this a "warning sign"?  Just curious;)

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Nick,

Not yet, let's keep an eye on radar and see how this trends. 

Gary

so....are you guys planning on upping the snow chances for friday and monday?

Is something wrong with the Topeka KS radarthe latest update from it is 1212Z from three different sources.  I used Topeka as it is closer to St Joe than Pleasant Hill.  upper Midwest mosaic as a whole developing in itthat is a result of lack of return from Topeka and the Accuweather composite is the same way.  Click on Topeka and 1212 is the latest update we're missing 90 minutes of data.  

stjoeattorney, I have noticed the radars from the NWS have been acting off today, it has been irritating me too!!   Thanks for the info Gary, this thing could still be just getting its act together anyway as the storms this year have been strengthening right near this region.

The moisture seems to be keeping the colder air from moving southward.....

KCI is down to 34 yet Topeka is pretty much stayed put.....still 38 in Blue Springs

I HATE rain changing to snow "storms"......they suck

Flakes just started falling here at 108th and 169N onto some pretty slick side streets.  Everyone be careful in your neighborhoods tonight!

I agree with your statement heavysnow...the rain to snow storms stink..lol

its the same temperature as when I woke up......40

Belton MO.  I actually went up 2 degrees last hour  to 41...  off and on very light drizzle..  

Is that sleet falling just south of KC in the yellow/orange?  

started snowing here in the northland on 113th and cookingham snowing pretty good, hope this means higher totals

Is it at all possible for this cold front to stall and never make it through the metro area?!!  Watching this pink line on radar so close and yet to far, and not seeming to MOVE, is KILLING ME!! :)  Just a little antsy in Lenexa, sorry.

it seems to me that the heavier precip bands are setting up further south than anticipated(notice I didn't say predicted).  also, the cold is arriving 5 hours ahead of schedule in the northland.  Gary - what does this mean for folks in the metro?  Are we now looking at a better possibility of 4 or more inches?

Nick,thanks I thought I may have been going nuts.  I only see very light snow right now at 2:00 .  I finally got the Topeka radar to update their apears to be a bandof a light green turning dark blue about 30 miles to our SSW moving this direction so I suspect that by 3:00 we should be in S and a few hours later S+ that the deformations in north central Kansas seem to be growing in strength and size.  Hopefully, they will hold together and move through here between seven and midnight.  It also appears as if there is rotation just east of Dodge City.          

starting to collect on grass and i bleive the street are soon to go, man i hope we get some accumlating snows, got a feeling something will go wrong, it dont arrive just 5 hours early and stay the whole time. lol

New Blog!

Yes, the Topeka radar is finally back up.  The storm seems pretty disorganized and there is a dry slot rotating through central Kansas up to around I-70.  I think anywhere from I-70 south will get very light (<2") accumulations at best from this storm with maybe much more to the north.  Here in Topeka it is only snowing very lightly and the temperature is still at or slightly above 32F.  Not much excitement here...  

Updated my Snowfall Forecast, Futurecast 3D,etc:

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/