Good afternoon NBC Action Weather bloggers,
The weather pattern is just fascinating this year. I am going to talk about the overall weather pattern today, what has happened so far, what is expected to happen in the next few days and weeks, and some other things. We will begin with snowfall totals from this storm and seasonal totals thus far.
January 16th-17th snowstorm:
- Gallatin, MO: 6.0"
- St. Joseph, MO: 3.5-5.0"
- Kearney, MO: 4.5"
- Plattsburg, MO: 4.2"
- Mound City, MO: 4.0"
- Platte City, MO: 3.5-4.25"
- Maryville, MO: 4.0"
- Smithville, MO: 4.0"
- Trenton, MO: 3.9"
- Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3.5"
- W. Shawnee, KS: 3.5"
- Lenexa, KS: 3-4"
- KCK: 3.25"
- Bonner Springs, KS: 3.5"
- Lawrence, KS: 2.5-3.7"
- Berryton, KS: 3.5"
- I-35 & N. Brighton Rd: 2.9"
- N.Oak & Barry Rd, MO: 2.5"
- Grandview, MO: 2.0"
- Lee's Summit, MO: 1.75"
- Blue Springs, MO: 1.75"
- Belton, MO: 1.0-2.0"
- Pleasant Hill, MO: 1.0"
- Grain Valley, MO: 1.0"
- Gunn City, MO: 0.75-1.0"
- 10 mi. N. of Warrensburg, MO: 0.25"
- Sedalia, MO: Light Dusting
Seasonal totals as of January 17th:
- Topeka, KS: 23.2"
- Cameron, MO: 18.6"
- St. Joseph: 18.2" (25.4" in another location)
- KSHB studios (east side of the Plaza): 13.8"
- KCI airport: 13.1"
- Overland Park, KS: 12.8"
- Grandview, MO: 11.5"
- North Blue Springs, MO: 11.0"
- Pleasant Hill, MO (NWS): 10.5"
- Grain Valley, MO: 9.5"
- Pleasanton, KS: 2.0"
If you have a seasonal total let us know and we will add it to our list. Remember winter started only 4 weeks ago. We are just barely 1/3rd of the way through winter.
The snow on the ground is affecting temperatures today, and will likely do so for the next few weeks. Look at our surface map at 10 AM this morning. Kansas is in the ice box with a lot of single digit temperatures:
The weather pattern continues to cycle and we are literally repeating the pattern that happened in late November, and we are now moving into the December part of the pattern. The 45 day forecast, based on the LRC theory, that we issued at the beginning of the month, has been amazingly accurate. I thought it would be. Last year we made some forecasts that came through, and this year we expanded it to become a bit more specific. So, if you are a regular NBC Action News viewer or blogger, then this very strong cold wave and Arctic air arrival is no surprise to you, as you have known this was coming for over a month now. The LRC has been more fascinating than ever this year as we have learned more and we are using it well. If you want to know more about the LRC go back to some earlier blog entries in the past few months.
First of all, we have a strong Arctic front that is on the way. Below, you can see the forecast surface map for Friday afternoon. The green shade is some accumulating snow, but just a dusting to 1/2 inch would be possible on Friday. We will track this possibility on our newscasts tonight.
Now, look at what is coming our way. This is right on schedule with what happened at the end of November and early December, just a slightly different version. The jet stream is splitting just a bit with a northern branch and a southern branch. You can see this below on the forecast map valid Sunday night at midnight, take a look:
There is a storm forming in the southern branch. Kansas City is in the southern branch of flow which will supply us some Pacific moisture, but there is also some Gulf of Mexico air that must be monitored closely. In December a strong warm front moved north on December 1st. Remember the night we warmed up to 65 degrees after we were in the Arctic air during the day? Well, it likely won't happen this time, as we thought weeks ago. The Arctic air is too strong, and the northern branch is supplying another strong Arctic push. Look below at the surface map valid at the same time as the upper level map above:
Once again, this map above is valid Sunday night at midnight. There is, perhaps, the coldest air mass yet this season sagging into our area. It is overwhelming the weather pattern. Kansas City is in the cold air with the warm moist Gulf of Mexico air trying to push north. Remember, we will likely be in the southern branch aloft allowing for a lot of Pacific moisture to ride up and over the cold air mass. Snow should be the result, but unless that developing storm comes out over us, the amounts will likely be light. Guess what? That upper low does come out but later next week, around January 24th (within one day of when the LRC forecasted it to come out). We will be tracking this and a lot more during the next week.
Wow! What a day! What a weather pattern? We didn't even talk about the rain that fell yesterday morning, and looking into the next few weeks there were many more storm systems in December. They will be lining up again.
Have a great day! We will try to get to your questions as we have time.
Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team