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Wow, very clear graphic. Much better than the previous ones.

Good morning again!!!

Just a quirky observation that I find really fascinating: the Topeka soundings show that it is just below freezing at the 950-900 MB level right now. The surface is at 19 the 850 level is at 22 and the rest of the layer is way cold but there is that one pocket just about 1,000-2,000 feet above the surface that has really warmed up-I just find that fascinating and also a good showing of how we can so easily change to sleet and freezing rain here on many winter events when one would think we would have snow. No big deal as far as the real weather that is about to unfold, but just a quirky observation!!!

Great map!!!! As the Stones would say: Here it comes 19th nervous break down....

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I knew you would love the surface map this morning.  I get just as excited over some of the smaller things going on.  Watching this Arctic front dive south today is almost as exciting as watching those first few snowflakes fall.  And the bonus is that we may see some of those snowflakes today.

Have a great weekend.  If we get our graphics back, you will have to see yesterday's blog entry.

Gary

Gary,
Its my job to clear sidewalks do you think I will have to work over the 3 day weekend? I was hoping not to have to shovel over MLK day holiday.I work in  the south Kc area.

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The best chance of snow will come on Monday.  It does not appear very organized with little upper level support.  You will be free Saturday and Sunday, we will just have to wait and see how Monday sets up.

Gary

Good morning. This cold air arriving to today is exciting. I told my co-workers and wife about the snow and cold air a couple of weeks ago. They didn't say much. But when the snow came my boss said that he needed to start listeng to my forcast. I told him Just to watch Gary and his team and to read some of these blogs. I follow winter weather very close because I have to plow snow. I just can't wait until spring when I can follow the weather to see some amazing spring storms. Thanks Gary Great Blog.

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Thank  you, and great point!  Now everyone knows why we issued the Arctic Air Watch for the second half of January when no one else knew it was coming.  This is where the LRC provides our weather team with a huge forecasting advantage.  Keep promoting our blog and, especially NBC Action News.  We appreciate it.

Gary

Gary--Yes, I like the maps too.  Great information--On the snow totals, I gave you what we had at our house the 23.2 in Berryton--Topeka's "official" total from the airport last night is 21.4 inches for the year.  The NWS also increased their snowfall total from this past little storm to 4.1.   I had 3.8 at our house.  We are running slightly higher than they are for the year.  So what time will the front be coming to Topeka?  About Noon to 1 pm?  I enjoy wantching fronts and the intensity they bring.  Thanks for your work, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

The front will move through by 1 PM.  We will use your total.  So, keep us updated.

Gary

Bring on the cold and snow!!!

I posted before but we have had 11 inches so far this season in North Blue Springs

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We will put it into the list.  Please keep us updated.

Gary

"...we are just learning how to do it, so please bare with us while we learn."

Isn't it kinda cold to be baring with Gary?

Yea. With the Cold front moving in it will be nice and cold for me. Monday looks like another dagger this winter. I got to fly out tuesday to PHX, for a metting with the IMSA. Also monday with the mixed bag of precipatation, there will be a possiblility for another great snow day with snowfall about 5-8 inches monday. Also with the low being -5, with blustery conditions that would make for about -20 to -30 windchill.
So i would say No school tuesday for the kids and hopefully my flight doesnt get cancelled to Minnesota at 9am and then my flight to PHX doesnt get cancelled.

Zach in Olathe

I printed the blog off with the 45 day forecast from a couple weeks ago and gave it to three people in my office they all said know this is crazy and better not happen.  They have shared it with others, now people in my office have it on their desks referring to it with other forecasts and are checking things off as they occur and shake their heads.  

All I can tell you is our temperature was just spiked up it was coldest last night at 8:00  1° and then again this morning at about the same time we now have jumped to 13° is fully cloudy just maybe a little more moisture is being introduced from elevation that can produce slightly more than a dusting to make everything pretty again!

The city is down to 2000 tons of salt and is mixing it 50% salt 50% sand and chat in hopes of making the supply lasts longer , we've already used over 6500 tons of salt this winter and last year we used 5350 tons. We have on order 4000 tons everyone needs there supplies restocked; think the situation will get worse before it gets better.  too bad people don't have cinders from their coal burning furnaces to throw in the street to help the problems.          

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Stjoeattorney,

One of my goals is to try to get everyone out there to realize that there is a forecast that actually is accurate, short and long range.  So, thanks for helping.  We have been on a hot streak for a long time now.  I know there will be a stumbling block somewhere along the road, though.  We are predicting the future.  We have learned a lot about the LRC in the past few years.  But, it isn't perfect so let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

Gary

The last storm left 3.75" of snow near Reno.

Looks like some snow showers are increasing on radar.  We get a double bonus today!  Have a good day everyone!

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Please let us know when the snow arrives in your backyard...

Jeremy

Gary & Co.--I know it probably doesn't matter to you demographics wise cuz I am way up by the Iowa border near Maryville, but I have switched stations.  Never thought it would happen.  You have converted me and I am now a believer.  Thank you all for your hard work.

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Wow,

Thank you for letting us know!  We will continue to concentrate on your area as storm systems move your way.  Have a great weekend, and don't forget to watch our new Midday newscast at 11 AM.

You will probably see some snowflakes.  If you have a chance blog in your observation.

Gary

I doubt it will get below zero in Johnson County...pretty good chance at St Joe, with the airport down in a valley and more snow cover on the ground. Maybe KCI...but I bet Olathe doesn't get much below 5.

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If Olathe misses tonight(which might happen).  Then next week it will likely happen.  These arctic highs are very strong.  St. Joe was minus 2 this morning with WAA.  St. Joe will be below zero tonight without a doubt.

Jeremy

So, Jeremy, or Scott, or someone, where can I find 850 mb temperature maps, or charts, that are easier to read than the 4-panel charts on NCEP's website? I have to squint real hard and interpolate between lines that I'm not sure of when I look at those...

Gary and Weather Team,

It is snowing in Topeka as of 9:40am.

Ryan

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

It is very light snow in Leavenworth.

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Thanks!  Keep the report coming.

Jeremy

In St Joseph we have -2°  & -4° already back in December.  I would not be surprised [it is a coatng that has fallen thus far, the sidewalks are coated fluffy snow falling gently; right now there is no wind temperature has jumped to 23°.  If we lay down another 2 or 3 in. Sunday night and Monday I would not be surprised to see temperatures at the -8° to -15° t three to four days out models always understated low temperatures  particularly when there is snow on the ground.