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Next weeks setup? Sounds exciting!

Very light snow in Lawrence now. Maybe not even that, can I use heavy flurries? LOL
Have a great day.

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

A repost from last blog...So, Jeremy, or Scott, or someone, where can I find 850 mb temperature maps, or charts, that are easier to read than the 4-panel charts on NCEP's website? I have to squint real hard and interpolate between lines that I'm not sure of when I look at those...

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Go to:  http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/

This site should provide you with what you are looking for.

Gary

Just starting to see some tiny flakes in the Piper area of KCK. Around 123rd and Hollingsworth.

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

So I right now do not like next weeks storm, it looks like the southern portions of the viewing area are going to get missed again.  I really would like to have a decent, good snowfall soon.  Personally I would love to get slammed with a snow storm soon, do you guys see any thing that could hit us later on down the road, or are the storm systems, going to be take about the same kind of track?  Wanting snow soon :(

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John,

The storms will vary some.  With the very cold air to the north the storms may not be able to lift as far north.  But overall the same areas will likely be favored this winter/spring.  Just try to remember last winter when you were the focus...

Jeremy

I hope that it doesn't do too much on Monday because it is my son's birthday and his party is that night at a local amusement place. He will be so disappointed if I have to reschedule it.  Please say that maybe it will pass us by?

Starting to see tiny flakes in Kearney

What time are you thinking this little snow shower/flurry event will be ending?  
Will rush hour traffic be affected?

Do these flurries look like they will be only on the KS side and skip the Mo side and south?

Yes, Below zero finally!! I love Winter, and I love Arctic Air. I can already smell those polar bears! It smells like fish. Almost time to watch the midday news!

Light snow in Holt,Mo. Started about 10:20a.m. with flurries and got a little heavier to "snow globe" type snow.     Are we only going to see these fast moving storms, or is there a chance we will see a storm like the ice/rain from early Dec. with all snow?

Starting to flurry in Lenexa!!!!  Get excited!

Is that stuff on the radar in KC,and in Olathe,etc ground clutter? or virga?

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Andrew,

A lot of it is virga.  But, eventually is starts reaching the ground.  It is snowing now from I-70 and I-435 intersection north and west and it is heading our way.  It isn't going to snow much though.

Gary

The snow is really coming down now in Kearney!

Snow showers at 75th and Quivira

Gary, does that mean the flurries will get to Grandview? or stay on the Ks side

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Kellyanne,

You should see snowflakes within a couple of hours.

Gary

Thanks Gary!

Here aroun Grandview, it has been sunny most of the morning, even now! nice!

Light flurries at 119th and Pflumm.  Boy it's cold out there... and from the looks of it, going to get worse.  I dread opening the Atmos Energy bill next month.

Brett just said that Arctic Front is up North in Minnesota (I think.) I'm getting confused Gary says it right on our doorstep.

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Andrew,

The front is right on our doorstep.  Brett had drawn it in up there earlier and he didn't move it.

Gary

And the maps are gone again! All I see are X's.

Oh, and it is snowing very nicely in Shawnee right now.

David

Gary...

Hopefully we will see a snowstorm that acutally has some punch during the coming weeks, because for a pattern that is so exciting, the results certainly haven't been.  Or at least in the eastern half of Jackson county they haven't been.  All I know is that everyone is talking about how this winter is so much more exciting than the ones we have experienced lately, but the fact is, we had more snow by the 2nd of December last season than we have had the entire winter this year.  It seems like much ado about nothing to me.  That's probably a bit extreme, but I haven't seen a single map of yours showing a 10" snowstorm anywhere in the region this entire winter.  I know it's very rare around here, but I vividly remember November 30th of 2006, and watching the 10:00 newscast in amazement at the 21" bullseye that looked to take aim right on the city a day later.  That think missed by a few miles, but THAT was something to talk about.  This year....Not so much.  Hope things materialize soon, as the clock is ticking before Old Man Winter starts to lose his punch!

Matt.

There's one way to tell that 10" snow storms are rare around here, and that's because people think they want to see one. Trust me, you don't. 3-6" is perfect. It's pretty, kids can sled, and build snowmen, but it's not too much of a burden. Once you get into the 10"+ range, the snow ceases to be any fun at all. It really shuts things down. When I lived in Virginia we got buried by foot plus snows every couple years, and they were really unpleasant.  Gas stations would have to turn regular cars away to make sure they had enough fuel for plows and emergency vehicles. Doctors and nurses could barely get into the ER and keep the hospitals running. Some streets would stay impassable for days if not weeks.

When you have a plow you want to see 10+ .

RDub...

I here you, but I still say bring on the big one.  3-6" just doesn't do it for me!  Maybe I need to buy a house at 12,00 feet...Ha ha..

Matt.

Rdub...

Also, it's not as if we never have 10"+ storms around here.  In fact every few years we are good for at leat one, and I can tell you I don't remember the last time a 10" storm shut down the city for more than a day or two, and certainly not for weeks.  Maybe with 25" but not with 10 or 12...

Matt.

Matt I agree that for some of us this winter has been a bit boring with nothing more than 3" of snow at one time, whereas as last year we got blasted.  RDub, I could be wrong but I've heard from others in Virginia, Maryland and such that anything more than 3" shuts everything down.  Whereas around here we're more equipped to handle the snow.  Basically what I've saying is I would like to see a good foot of snow.

very light flurries around Grandview, hardly can see em but they are there, lol.

Widespread 10"+ storms are much more rare around her than "every few years". I've lived here for 10 years and have never had 10" at my house in Johnson County. Not once.

Out and about in the Olathe area, some of these snow showers are moderate.  Atleast we will get a dusting, fun to watch!  Still sitting at 30.4 degrees, sure thats going to be changing soon.  I like when this stuff happens on my day off!  Yesterday I had to put out I don't know how many weather notifications nationwide at work, I couldn't believe some of the areas recieiving such weather, causing airline/shipment delays.  Amazing!  By the end of the day I was DONE!  So im glad to be here able to enjoy the weather here, LOL.  Getting ready to install some more weather equipment outside and speakers on the computer.  Hope everyone is seeing the white showers outside!  Again thinks for such a great blog everyone!  

"I could be wrong but I've heard from others in Virginia, Maryland and such that anything more than 3" shuts everything down."

Nope. Virginia and Maryland get more snow than KC does. That would be true much further south.

RDub, you are right about Maryland getting snow!! They get a lot of storms and when they do, they are usually big snows!!

GARY-the front came through Topeka shortly after 11:00.  The flags turned and were blowing from the north to the south.  We had some light flurries to very light snow but no big deal.  I haven't noticed a big temperature drop but I think you said the colder air is lagging behind.  I usually average 4 walks a day and will go on two more.  Take care, Michael/Berryton

Im goin to Arizona...this snow BITES.

So does this @&*# cold air!!!

A good example place that gets shut down by 3"....Charlotte, NC. They are currently under a winter storm watch because of the possibility of 2-4" of snow. That would only rate a snow advisory in this area. But that's 250 miles south of where I lived in Virginia.

I think Atlanta was getting some snow too; they were freaking out on the Weather Channel last night!

Yeah I'm thinking of more southerly areas than where you're apparently from.  I've lived in an area for a few years where there were 2 snow plows for the entire county and they usually had a couple little snow storms each year.  With two plows running it didn't take much to all to shut everything down.

Stormchaser, my boss's mother lives "just" North of Atlanta,  she said they did get snow, dont know how much though.  It doesn't happen very often in Atlanta I know that!  Arizona is nice, I miss the mountains.  It is chillier there than one might think though this time of year.  Atleast it was when I lived there.

Temp is falling here in Olathe..
Does anyone know real quick what the correct barometric pressure is in Olathe? I am putting out some stuff, installing new batteries on old stuff and I have lost my information.  

Rdub..

I'm not trying to be argumentative or anything, but I would probably be willing to bet that you have had a 10" storm at your house in the last 4 years, let alone the last 10.  I remember quitle clearly a few times in the winter of 2005/2006 when JoCo got hit with a solid foot.  In fact I remember Olathe reading 13" in one of them.  I believe that was during the first week of December in 2005.  The first few weeks of Dec have been good ones around here the last several years.  If there was a way to look it up for your location I'd like to see it.

Matt.

Brett34 use this site: http://stormwatch.com/index.asp

It gives you very accurate readings for temp, wind speed and direction, pressure, humidity, etc. for different points around Johnson Co.  I use that to monitor when a front is approaching.

nastyweather, Thanks!  I appreciate that.  I just got highspeed online at home now, so pretty much have just been able to read this blog at work... so I am still getting half the stuff that I have at work at home now.  I use the applications I have available at work to use... but I am working on some better stuff here.  So I appreciate it, thanks.  I haven't had internet at home in 5 years, because I was in the country out in Leavenworth county, where the weather was FRUSTRATING last year.... now its snow city up there... lol.  But im not left out atleast, and dial up was torture and worthless for the things that I wanted to do out there.  This ROCKS!

Does anyone have good information on Monday's storm. I'm not seeing any precipitation forecasts. My wife is traveling to Wichita and just trying to get an idea what Monday looks like.

Thanks,

Ray

Matt, the December 2005 storm gave me 8" at my house. There were 10" reports in JoCo, but not at my house.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/events/dec072005/

We also got 8" at my house in a February storm, 2004 I think. To compare,when I lived in Virginia, we had one event that was 20" and at least four that were more than a foot over the course of 10 years. These snows were all heavier and wetter and much harder to deal with than the light, fluffy snow we got in Dec 2005.

Ok , I have it all hooked up now.  The atomic clock feature is cool on these things, it takes awhile to get the data transmitted though.  
I now have wirless weather stations in every room in the house... as if the computer isn't enough!!  The wireless rainguage will be fun when the rains return!!  The temp is falling steadily from 30.4 to 28.8 in a matter of minutes, Winds NW at 5. But seem to be variable at the moment.  

Oh boy dial up Brett34? Friends don't let friends have dial up Internet!  I think I would rather have a couple weeks in Guantanamo than a single day of dial up.  I'm now having flashbacks of days gone by of that d@mn modem sound when it was connecting.  That's worse than nails on a chalk board IMO.  "Please connect at 56kps, pretty please.  D@mn you modem, it's only 28kps.  Guess this song will take an hour or two to download on Napster."  Those where the days..........NOT!

Anyway, there was a pretty good burst of snow for a few minutes, now it's all gone.

RDub...

Good info.  Nice work on finding it.  Looks like you kind of got the short end of the stick for being in JoCo on that Dec 05 storm...I know how that feels...Ha ha..

Take Care,

Matt

Yeah, those days were horrible!!!
Now its one song in 3 seconds, it is awesome!  
We have burst of snow, then light, then flurry, then burst , its enough to have with though, LOL - Olathe.

Really, the difference between 8" of light, fluffy snow and 10" is not that big, so I don't mind getting the "short end". That snow had a ratio of like 20:1, so even a small change in liquid amounts meant a big change in depth.

Who knows, maybe by the time I got out to measure it, the top 2" had blown away?

weather team, i too am curious about monday. wife wants to go to south east missouri to see parents, and i want to know if there will be snow to push? also it seems that last year 12-01-06 storm produced around 10 inches in the south east part of town.  chris

My wife lived in Winchester, Virginia during the Blizzard of January of 96 with almost 3 feet of snow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jan7b-96.jpg

RDub,
I remember both storms quite well.  They both hit on a Thursday.  On Feb. 5, 2004, my dad and I had to drive from Raytown to OP and back to get a dog to foster (ended up adopting her).  I have pics of that storm in my photo gallery.  Both snowfalls were under 10 inches here.

There is a winter storm watch for central AL from just south of Huntsville to Montgomery.

Kristi in south Raytown

Shawn, I was in Charlottesville at that time. It was at least 20" there. I had to go and do a radio show on the student radio station and I walked to campus just after it stopped. The roads were sort of clear so I could walk along the road, but once I got onto campus, none of the foot paths had been cleared at all. Walking through that much snow is no fun at all.

um....why is the snow melting down here in Harrisonville?....

its almost gone.....the one inch we had.....

no snow today either.....yet.......

Brent

Kristi, Feb 2004, I was going to see my dad that day in Tampa. Luckily, my flight wasn't until later in the day and I was able to drive to the airport no problem. Getting into a parking spot was the biggest problem.

Here in Topeka our last official 10" or more snowstorm was in January 1993.  Before that was sometime in the early-mid 1980s before 1985.  We had the 9" storm this past Dec 22 so we got close.  Thus we have had one 10" or more storm here in about the last 22 years or more.  At the same time, it seems every year someone nearby gets one OR MORE 10"+ storm but never here. I have been amazed at how year after year the bulls eye misses us.  I am glad we finally have had alot this year before I get too old to enjoy it... Mike

RDub,
That was a great day to leave KC for Tampa with all the snow on the ground. :)

Kristi

February 04 storm started as a 2"-3" storm and then just went and went thru the day. Spent the whole day on a open tractor plowing that sucker while every one else at work had a snow day. Temperatures were around 30-32 the whole storm and it was a very wet heavy snow.

December 05 storm was the fluffiest snow I have ever seen in Kansas City as it started around noon or so and then went thru the night. It was so light you could sweep the snow away. Temperatures never went above 10 the whole storm.

RDub,

Not to challenge your measuring stick, but I've lived near the intersection of 159th and Nall for 8 years and have recorded at least 4 10"+ measurements including two right at 12".  Remember just south of us last December they recorded 27" in Pleasonton, KS.

It's easy to forget unless you keep track by taking measurements and writing down in a weather calendar.  My son and I like to do this as fun little weather history project.  **My grandfather lives at Walmer and 71st and he had one 12" and two 10" measurements in the last 8 years.  

In April, 1997, we got 18 inches of snow.  That was a once-in-a-lifetime for me.  I couldn't get out of my house.  Roofs were collapsing due to the weight of the snow.  Very interesting.  It was well into May before it melted on the north sides of houses, buildings, etc.

Supercell, that's what I mean by "widespread" heavy snow being rare. Sure, Pleasanton had 27" but KCI barely got 2.7" from that storm. Compare that to the map that Shawn P posted, where the area that got 20"+ covered several states.

159th St is a long way from my house. I live within 2 miles of your grandfather but I've never measured 10". I'd remember.

Brent:
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/66061?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared
looks like a band coming right at you, nice size flakes too, hopefully not a band of virga heading your way, it shoulld be there soon.  Another band is coming in from the west, but not sure its going to hold together though.  Should be a few more nice snow showers, I hope a couple more bands form, snow showers are kind of cool, one starts, snows pretty good then stops and another one comes.  Pretty cool!

Problem with snow in middle America is we have no constant moisture source to draw from. We have to depend upon Gulf moisture for the large storms and this far north they have to wrap up tightly to bring moisture in large quanites this far north. So when the wrap up tightly we see the small swath of heavy snow.

Or, when we do get good moisture, it brings in so much warm air that we get ice or rain. The last two big ice storms brought more than 1" of moisture, enough for a huge snow, but it came as rain.

Weather team,

Really trying to get best information on Monday's storm. My wife is headed to Wichita trying to make plans.

THanks,

Ray

Right now in St. Joe it is clearing out but we still have occasional blowing snow once in awhile as it is real fluffy.  

  Hello Gary, Look like any accumulations for Monday, what has been the trend for the snow on Monday, any major snow?

I am expecting to see the snow for Monday disappear.  I think it will largely go north of us and track across Nebraska and Iowa.  Areas in the northern viewing area may see trace amounts, but based on surface trends and what I see for QPF availablity, and 700mb trends...

I just don't see it.  I hope I am wrong.

Rdub, that is due to the location we are in as it relates to where surface lows can form and come in.

If from the north, not enough moisture...or what is brought up from the gulf often gets eaten on the warm side of the front.

If from the south, plenty of moisture, but based on proximity to a SW surface low, we are often brought into the WAA.

It has to be just right do have all the available precip come as snow.  Most of our snow really comes on the deformation zones...

Or so it seems.

Any freezing precipitation, though?

I think we should just be thankful that we experience all 4 seasons!  Why is everyone arguing over how much snow they got within blocks of each other?  Hello!?!?  We live in the midwest...is it really that uncommon for one area that is right next to another to have such a significant difference in snow fall totals?  I used to live just south of KCI and I remember one storm that hit the airport with a few inches and just a couple miles south we got just a dusting.  I am also thankful that we are getting lots of "little" snow storms as the ones with 10" or more are severly dangerous.  I love snow, but I also love my safety...and that of my loved ones!

Thank you Gary and team for being so reliable.  All the other teachers in my school are finally starting to listen to me about the weather.  Especially since I haven't been wrong in so long!!  (Hehe...thank you for that!)

The GFS currently offers a ton of uncertainty in the extended range. The 6Z and the 12Z were POLAR opposites. I have never seen such completely different results on all levels. Will the ridge in the Pacific persist? That is the big question as to whether or not it will stay cold in the Central Plains, especially! The Upper Midwest will turn very cold with low temperatures approaching -30F or lower not uncommon in the northwoods over the next few nights.

I hope we get at least a couple inches on Moday

I hope we get at least a couple inches on Moday

One thing that I am wondering, because to me it kind of looks like this, (I know the LRC is better than the models) but I was wondering, could the stronger northern jet coming out of Canada, squash the bigger storm systems causing them to miss us?  It seems that the GFS is smashing the SW vort as it tries to come out at us, of course the models could be having trouble with the pattern again to... but I wonder.

speaking of Southern snowstorms...I remember in February '77 or '78, I big low sat off the coast of North Carolina and dumped 35" of snow on Wilmington. 200 miles up the road in Greensboro, we had 9" It was only about five years ago that Raleigh got about 20" and the city shut down for a week.

And speaking of "record breaking" snowstorms, check this out...LOL...

January 17... Record daily maximum snowfall set at Charlotte...

A record snowfall of 1 inch was set at the Charlotte-Douglas
international Airport today. This breaks the previous record of 0.4
inches set in 1946.

guys, do you think next weeks events will be signifigant?

Silly GFS...just can't get a grip beyond 5 days.

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Scott,

Don't worry about that feature in the next 5 days.  It will certainly change by Monday.  And, the longer range is about as perfectly in line, on the new 18z GFS, with what the LRC says the pattern will be.  This is a part of the pattern that goes through amplification, then deamplification, then rapid amplification again.  The models can't handle that at all.  Major errors develop within 5 days.

Gary

One station keeps predicting 40's next week and a different forecaster on the same station will change it to the 20's and then its changed back to the 40's by evening.  

Yikes

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So, we ask......why do you watch that station? 

Gary

so what's with Monday?  Snow, ice, just rain?  Lots of either?  By the way -- we live in Kingsville and got a foot of snow in December 2006 - I have a picture of me in it and it was up over my knees!  It was just fine with me - I didn't go to work - they don't clear country roads very well.  BUT if I did have to go, I agree that it would have been not safe to drive.  

Anyway ... I can't figure out the charts and maps and things - did all you guys go to a class or just learn on your own or what?  And help dummies like me and tell us in plain English!  Thank you!

Ive got a racing four wheeler any chance of at least 6'' of snow on monday thats fun for us here.