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Jeremy--An update on our temps here---officially minus 2 at Billard in Topeka and minus 3 here at Berryton.   Great cold weather this morning.  I heard it is really cold in Wisconsin? minus 44 is that right?  Keep warm---Michael/Berryton/Topeka *************** There's a few pockets in north central WI that get very cold! I'll check out the lows for WI & MN. Jeremy

Nice work with the stats on single-digit highs, etc.--it's always fun to put the extremes of weather in historical perspective.

Also, hats off (or with it this cold, we'll just keep our hats on!) to the Weather Team for their extremely accurate forecasts over the last week or so.   ************* Glad you enjoyed the cold weather stats! Hopefully we don't have to talk about them too long. Jeremy

Great stats Jeremy, the low temp. in Plattsburg -8 this morning. ************ Thanks for the report! Stay warm today. Jeremy

I had  2*F at 0630 in Raytown.
Weather Team what do you think of this:
http://www.kansascity.com/115/story/450099.html
The long range prediction by the National Climate Prediction Center.

They think February thorough April will be warmer and drier.

Kelly

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Kelly,

That same source predicted December and January to be warm and dry too!  So, it has no credibility.  They don't use the LRC and base their forecast almost entirely on La Nina influences.  So, obviously we disagree with that prediction.  The weather pattern is continuing to cycle.  There will be some warmer stretches, eventually, but overall the December and January pattern will continue.  It has been wetter and colder than average.

Gary

Not sure if you can call if "official" or not, but my car said -3 this morning. It was right b/4 the sun came up at 291 and Stark Road up in the northeast side of town. ************ If that is what it read...I'm guessing it may have been -4 or -5! Jeremy

bottomed our at around -5 this morning in Kearney *********** Thanks for checking in! Jeremy

out**

It got down to 0.1° in Lenexa. (0.2° on another thermometer) So, not quite below zero, but about as close as you can get!

David *************** I saw 0 right by my house in Olathe...so your reading sounds good. Jeremy

It has warmed up to -6 in St. Joe. Not much better when it was -10 early because there is a light breeze that has the windchill at -16.  Either way it is just cold. I can't wait to hear what is in the plans for monday.

Once again, great forecast! To forecast temps THAT low would be hard.

well when i started my car it said 0. Cleaned the windows off and it still read 0. After drivng for about 1 mile or so it went down to -3, and it does seem to read a degree or two higher then everything else(most of the time), so who knows what it really was. Either way it was COLD.

My weather station read 0.8 down in Kingsville-not sure if that's right, but anyway you look at it -it's COLD!!!

Love the Arctic Air, maybe I should go sit in the sun, and swim with polar bears! :)

Hello Jeremy, Did you guys take out the precip for tonight into tomorrow?Whats the trend for Monday into Tues?

Is Monday's storm expected to be signigicant?  I haven't really heard much about it, but I see NBC chances are up there, which is a red flag to me.  

Sorry for spelling I just woke up and took out the pet, My nose froze together, LOL, not awake yet.

The low for Olathe at 119th/35 area.... 1.4 degrees.  My weather station is very accurate on temperatures from what I can tell....BURRR!   *********** Thanks for the report! Jeremy

Quick question..I am flying out of KCI to Denver on February 2nd to go wath the Jayhawks take on the Buffaloes.  Can you give me any prediction on what the weather pattern will be around this time? Thanks

So Jeremy, being the Packers fan you are, what do you think of the Packers and Giants playing in subzero temps for their game?  I feel sorry for the fans who have to sit down during the game and can't keep their blood moving.  Of course, these temps aren't anything new for those fans.

On a side note, did you know that Mike McCarthy graduated from Baker just a half hour from where you live in Baldwin?

Anyway, it's freaking cold out there! ***************** The funny thing is...I'm not a Packer fan. My wife is and the tickets we are offering with our home are from her side of the family. My father-in-law is going to the game on Sunday in Green Bay. Should be about 1 or 2 above zero at the start. That is cold! Jeremy

When I woke up this morning around 9 a.m. it was 0 degrees out in Lenexa so I'm guessing it dipped below zero overnight. It was one of those mornings when I wish my dog could take herself out! =)

This week I have just switched my weather watching to the 41 team from another station based on the forecast accuracy and the consistency from one forecaster to the next.

My question has to do with the content on the website.  Are the forecasts (hourly and daily) posted on the weather page prepared by the local 41 team, or are they outside feeds?  I'm curious to know whether they can be trusted with the same accuracy we are seeing from the on-air team?

Thanks for the accurate forecasts and for the great blog which looks to be very interactive and informative.

**************** First off, thank you so much for allowing us into your home each day via TV. Thanks for checking out the blog too! Since I'm not sure what forecasts you are referencing I would say an outside source or directly off an in-house model. Generally if someone is curious or traveling away from KC they just ask us in the blog and we will do our best to help out. Jeremy

Good morning weather team.   When I left for work this morning (at 0500) it was 4 above.   Not sure what the temp was when my wife let the Huskies out, but she told me that they wouldn't come back in the house.   After about an hour, I guess they wanted breakfast so they came in..   I tell ya, my sibe's sure love the cold weather..

Bill
Grandview **************** Bill, At least a few animals are enjoying it! Jeremy

Jan 25th thru Feb 25th

Can not come soon enough.....I am ready for some real snow

Jeremy, do you know how many degrees below average december was? **************** -1.4 degree in December. Jeremy

Boy this Global Warming is really something.

Boy oh boy guess it's a mortgage sized heating bill at the end of the month.

Sheesh **************** I think I'll have to take out a loan! And I thought December's was high! Jeremy

I'm still not getting the appeal of living in an Ice Box.

Any tips for my clueless self? ************** I still don't know why people would rather have this over a 70-80 degree day. Jeremy

Low last night In Leavenworth was -5.8 ************** Thanks for the report! Jeremy

Cant wait for more winter weather to come!!

It was a balmy high of -3 this morning in Marceline

Well the -10 is a real temp up here I am running late today my brother and two kids are in from Orlando, they went to SNOW CREEK yesterday and we partied some last nite.  My guage had -11.2 at 1100 hrs it was 1.3 degree.  

I read Bill in Lawrences comments, from the prior blog, if you remember the Decembers of 83,85 and 89 were super cold for 25 days.  I think we will stay bitter.  I posted yesterday that -8 to -15 was likely.  If we lay in these little coatings of snow an inch here and there until the 25th we could make a run at -20 not recorded since 1989 and records would fall.

Next up comes the weekly progression like every weekend in December....

WE KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN; WE JUST IN OUR GUT DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE IT.....WHY?   WE HAVE NEVER BEEN THROUGH IT BEFORE!!! ************* Thanks for the report. I still think our coldest night is ahead of us. KCI could make a run at -10 if snow remains on the ground. Overall though, January will probably be close to average for temps. A couple of storms yet this month will push us near or maybe even above average for a day or two. Jeremy

I still don't know why people would rather have this over a 70-80 degree day. Jeremy

****************

I suppose they could be decedents of Polar Bears as Gary suggests in the thread headline.

LOL
************ I wrote the blog today...but I think Gary would agree. He likes snow and cold...but there is a limit. Jeremy

MrSteve, I remain clueless right along with you.  I love to be outside, it's so hard to get all bundled up, head out for a hike and have to return home in 30-45 minutes because my contacts are freezing to my eyes!!!!!  I long for 80-90 degree days, shoot even 100s suit me fine, when I can hike for hours and not be turned back because of weather!  I guess I need to find some indoor hobbies if I'm going to stay in Kansas for 8 more years....8 more...I'm counting them down...7 more Kansas Winters.  Oh well...back to peeling my contacts off my frozen eyeballs! ha!

Jeremy,
It's cold here...  Don't know the temp tho..  Too cold to go look. LOL

Anyway, I saw the story on the news last night about trying to sell your condo and the Packer season tix.  That has to be a great incentive for a die hard Packer fan to buy the condo. :)  I hope that you get the condo sold quickly!  I know that it has been on the market since you moved here in 2006.

Kristi in south Raytown

DPannell @ 12:38 PM

*************
I'm with you on that. When we ended February last winter (07) someone said. . don't worry come August you'll be wishing it was winter again.

I replied. . Oh no I won't !

I guess I'm a winter "whimp".

LOL

DPannell wear glasses not contacts?!!!

Next I can not sweat because I am paralized due to an accident and have been in a wheechair 31 years. . . everyone has a heater. . . but if I am in 85 -90 for more than 40 minutes my internal body temp will jump to 104 so I like 74-83 degrees.  I can put on a tant top and get couple bottles of water and take a 2.3 mile exercise on our Riverwalk or Parkwak hike and bike trails. . . to each his own I am not being critical. . . we are all different but LOVE the crazy weather headed our way....

Temp was 0 at 9:30pm last night...woke to -12.3...and it is currently 8 here in NW Ray County.  We do live in a low lying area and the transmitter for my weather station is on the north side shaded side of the house.  Regardless...it's cold!   It has been fascinating following the LRC thus far this winter.  Sure makes you  wonder what this spring will be like!?!  Once again...great forecast guys!

stjoelawyer @ 12:51 PM

I like 74-83 degrees
*****************

Now where talking! Perfect.

70 Degrees would be great..... in July and August!!

************

Or one day in the 70s out of the next 20.  I would settle for that:)

jeremy

I want snow and lots of it

The active part of the pattern is taking too long!!

Here are the OFFICIAL low temperatures across the area this morning:
St. Joseph Rosecrans Memorial Airport -12F
Lawrence Municipal Airport -9F
Manhattan Municipal Airport -7F
Topeka Billard Municipal Airport -6F
Topeka Forbes Field -6F
Kirksville Regional Airport -5F
KCI Airport -4F
Chillicothe -4F
Olathe New Century Air Center -3F
Lees Summit -0F
Johnson County Executive Aiport -0F
Charles B Wheeler Downtown Airport 2F
Sedalia 4F

jeremy when can we excpect some more info on monday storm thanks

************

Around or after the next newscast.

Jeremy

Wow, I took the dog out for a walk a little bit ago, man talk about cold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
One thing about this arctic blast is the snow is snow falling in the deep south, Heavy Snow warnings in Alabama!!  If the cold trends like it did during the last "active period" the south including Florida could be in for a rude shock, I am wondering if the southern fruit crop is in danger this year?

The Heavy Snow Warnings are no loner in effect there but they were earlier, In Alabama.

Stormdog here - MrSteve and Jeremy, I am totally with you - I could do without this frigid stuff and snow - okay 1-2 inches, but that's enough.  One could live in Boston, Massachusetts, where I come from and get plenty of snow, ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

Non-severe thunder, lots of heavy rain, now that's my thing - even a marginal severe (no hail or tornadoes) is okay.

BTW, from reading the NWS discussion, the mention of freezing drizzle sounds
awful - that and freezing rain are the worst to deal with, I think.  Doesn't sound
like much of an event other than a pain.

GFS last night (long term - take it w/ a grain of salt) showed a transition to a zonal regime (that should moderate temps a bit temporarily at least) followed by a trend to a digging troughiness in the SW U.S. leaving us in SW flow, oh say by Jan 25-26th ish.  Then we will see...

Later,
Dog

**************

Dog,

Good to hear from you!  The NAM and GFS are really far a part for the Monday system.  It does warm up...but will it be 28, 34, 40?  The NAM is likely too warm.

Jeremy

Is GFS showing a possible ice storm for next weekend?  Also, I think Monday looks like it could produce more snow than I was previously thinking.  If it just pulls together a smidge sooner then it could be a fun one, yes?

*****************

Monday is tricky to say the least.  I'd still favor northern areas for snow, a possible mix in the metro, and maybe even some rain to the south.  That is a blend of the NAM & GFS.  Both are on opposite ends right now.  I hate to say this, but it might be Sunday before we have a really good idea for the Monday PM precip. 

Jeremy 

"From 1980-1989 the airport recorded 6 days with single digit highs.  The coldest occurring on January 10, 1982 (-5).  This was also the last time that Kansas City recorded a sub zero high temperature."

Didn't we also see sub zero highs around Dec 22, 1989? We had 2 nights in a row there at -23, and I remember going to a Christmas Party when it was -12 at noon during that same cold snap, which set our all time records. Sorry in advance if I'm wrong, which is entirely possible :)

****************

I have to change a couple of things.  For some reason I only looked at January!  Thanks!

Jeremy

I need Monday/Tues storm to slow down one day and need it to warm up near 40.  

That would make me happy.

Please work on this request as a priority.  Thanks.

;-)

the lowest it got this morning was -1 in Parkville.

According to the 18z GFS it seems like be all snow for KC with thickness values below 540 and an 850mb temp of -3*C and surface temperature staying at 32 or below.  Is the reason you are forecasting a mix because the GFS is the only model having all snow?

Thanks, Eswar

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Eswar,

Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning is, amazingly, setting up similar to our last winter event of a few days ago.  Warmer air is going to try to come in only at the lowest levels.  So, there could be another rain/snow line forming.

Your analysis is solid, and it does look like it will be all snow.  Two things, #1, it doesn't look like much, and #2, let's see how it looks Sunday and early Monday on how much warmer air is being transported northward.

Gary

 

Thanks Gary,
I looked back and they had NO idea this would happen. It is just amazing how accurate
you have been. What do the NWS think of the LRC? I am still trying to figure it out but so far it is like clock work.


Kelly

Kelly, the LRC is pretty straigtforward to understand and see...what is complicated is for other meteorologist that have been through classic training to open up and see it.  It goes against common teachings.

Sorta.

I know a lot of you are saying it looks like we will get snow Mon night or maybe freezing drizzle. I guess I must be nuts because from what I see, I think if we have anything, it will be all rain, at least south KC. maybe someone like Scott could tell me if Im not seeing things right.

****************

Rain is possible in spots.  If it occurred the best bet would be around or south of KC.  But right now any type of precip. is possible during this storm.

Jeremy

I would love love love to be on the beach in Tampa right now!  To see the squall line moving in from the beach...waves clapping a bit louder than usual with stormy skies approaching, temps in low seventies... ahhhhh.  It looks like there are probably some decent waterspouts embedded also, probably not in view, but in there stirring up the waters for sure.  That is some beautiful guided imagery in my mind!  

17-23 December were bite ass cold I had a trial in Maryville MO and the bank temp at 2 pm was -14 up there.  St Joe set its second coldest low in that time frame of -24 on the 23rd -21 on the 22nd and -17 on 21st there was a 70 or 80 hr period of sub zeo temps because people were asked to conserve natural gas because pressures were low. . . .

I think Sunday nite into Monday we will get 2-3 inches of fluffy powder up here we picked up .6 yesterday . . . we wil reach 40 inches maybe 50 depends on March.

**************

Best bet of snow is your way again.  Temps might create a mix farther south...or even rain.

Jeremy

One thing that has always amazed me is that our all time record low (KCI) missed by just a few days being a Fall event instead of a Winter event.

I bottomed out at -0.3 at my location--SW downtown Lee's Summit. We are currently sitting at 13.2...

Lets pray the GFS is running too fast long range.

Jeremy, do you think that north of the river will recieve a rain, snow, or mix on Monday-Tuesday?

*************

Best chance of snow is north of the river.  But right now the temps around KC are so close to 32 that it may be rain/snow.

Jeremy

The GFS seems to sort-of fit in with the LRC but is too warm for my likes...

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The 18z GFS actually has a pretty good handle on it.  Remember what happened in December.  It warmed up, then it turned cold again. So, we will be having some ups and downs.  It sounds like you want it to stay below 32 for 50 days straight.

Gary

The 18Z GFS now seems very progressive in the extended. Hopefully this is not a trend. However, I do realize that the GFS has had some issues beyond day 5 recently.

******************

I think overall temps will be below average the next 2-3 weeks.  But the storms coming in will push temps up for a day or two, and then they will fall back. 

Jeremy

the weather in olathe was weird! it kept droping (about 6 degrees)
after the sun went up! why did that happen?