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what are you thinking weather wise for monday? i heard sleet and snow?
where will the line be!
i'm a big channel 41 weather watcher! thanks guys

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Tough to say where the dividing line will be with the precip. types...it will also change as the day goes on.  When we are confident and have more info on the Monday storm I will add it to the blog.

Jeremy

Jeremy and Gary

At the global weather level what conditions in particular are or may be causing this bitter winter weather to be so prolonged and unrelenting?

Kind of curious

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Overall the cold has not lasted very long.  The first half of January was very mild.  The ridge off the West Coast has allowed a deep trough to pour cold air into the nation's mid-section the past couple of days.  The cold air is even a bit colder due to the snow pack over central and northern parts of the area.  If the snow did not exist, then the air mass would modify quicker.  This shot of cold air will push east on Sunday.  It will still be cold, but about 12-15 degrees warmer in most spots.

Jeremy

I hope we see some accumulating snow Monday PM...already 1 degree here in Marceline!

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Another cold night!  Temps should rise a bit by morning.

Jeremy

Mr. Steve,
I am not an expert but these temperatures are not uncommon at all during the winter season in the KC metro area. We occasionally get arctic fronts along with sub-zero temperatures. The cold weather in the Central Plains and Midwest is the result of a larger ridge of high pressure in the Eastern Pacific that is preventing the zonal flow with milder air from breaking through.

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Sounds good OP!  I'm guessing you are loving this stuff.

Jeremy

When will there be a much colder night like a few years ago when it got to-8, -10
in the southern metro of kc? and will we get over a foot of snow in the rest of this winter?

new data time!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is 0 here north of Lawson. The fireplace with insert has had a work out today. But there's nothing else like wood heat. Everyone stay warm!! I am looking forward to the 10pm weather report.

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I miss having a real fireplace.  But I don't miss cutting the wood!

Jeremy

Hey Gary/Jeremy and guys (and gals),

Have you seen how the new 00Z NAM takes that energy coming into the pacific northwest states (as shown on the 18Z GFS 500mb image in this blog entry above) and reforms it into a strong closed low off the California coast out to 84 hrs (for high speed users a loop is here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_m_loop.shtml).

Maybe that happens all of the time (and maybe the models were already showing this on previous runs), but I don't ever recall seeing that kind of solution before. Anyway, I thought it was impressive... :)

Mike

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Mike,

This fits the pattern and Gary will go into that either tomorrow or Monday.

Jeremy

Next weekend our brief warm up before the more stormy pattern?  

We will stay pretty chilly for the most part during the Jan 25th to Feb 20th stormy pattern correct?

St. Joseph is already down to -8F.

Parkville is at 2F

Please take out that 38 next week, I love this deep freeze!!

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The temps at the end of the week are tricky as a storm approaches.  A couple of days in the 30s would be nice.

Jeremy

At 2245 hrs -9.2 at my house the record is -15 for today it would be odd to set it at 2357 hrs but it could happen before the temp starts to rize.  Will just look at the hourls tomarrow.  I do not want tosee my gas bill in three weeks! ************ The bills will be pricey. Thanks for the report! Jeremy

does this storm on Monday look like it could give us a lot of snow?

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If a lot means 3-4"...then probably not.  Looks like a lighter precip. event.

Jeremy

Good chilly-cloudy morning to the Weather Team!!!!

Pretty nutty last 36 hours here at the old abode so I did not get to check in yesterday (darn, no massive ramblings from the guy in Lawrence LOL)-at my location we hit 3 below Saturday morning-the official reading was around minus 9 for Lawrence but we usually have a 6 degree spread here on optimum radiational cooling nights-the difference between 3 below and 9 below is a matter of dress as both are cold!!!! Oh, tried to build a snow fort yesterday but just could not get the snow to pack very well-it looks like the real club house I am trying to build in the back yard: a mess!!!! LOL

We are currently sitting at 12 degrees this morning under a cloudy sky here in SW Lawrence. Our temperatures held pretty steady last night and as I was returning from KC on the turnpike last evening I saw high clouds beginning to stream in and I was like well, here comes the WAA-sure enough, by about 7:00 last night surface observations showed the high had drifted east of Lawrence and we were in the return flow.

Ok, the following are a few random thoughts this morning that I have been thinking about regarding Monday/Tuesday with the always pointed caveat that I may be sitting on I-70 instead of in the stadium LOL

1. I think Monday’s “event” is in line with what occurred around 12-1. I may be off on that but that was the event with the warm front on steroids and we are again seeing another strong warm front progressing towards us-it is really showing up on the surface charts this morning in Western Kansas. Also, like currently, that event did not have a strong organization at any level but we did manage .35 inches of precip with that event so some precip. Over the next 48 hours is a good bet.

2. The pattern this winter has never locked the cold in beyond 2-3 days so the fact that we are already seeing WAA just 36 hours after the arctic front is not a big surprise. The pattern has for sure delivered the cold and will do so again, but it has never locked in for 4-5 days like it did last year. Also, in all the good winter events for areas south of say a line from Topeka to St. Joseph this year the cold air had just arrived-Lawrence’s big snow event of 12-21 succeded to the fact that the cold front blew through here Friday night. On other events, when we have had the cold air in here already in place such as 12-14 and even this past Wednesday, WAA has really won out. To me, this is part of this years LRC for sure and it is something we will deal with in each storm system


3. I also think one can not discount the fact that with 2 a given (i.e. WAA is a major part of this pattern this year) climatology is in play along with it-we are always susceptible to WAA here especially after an arctic high passes to our east. I think the 6:00 A.M. soundings from Friday at Topeka are very telling-the surface was at 19 and the 700 and up were like minus 30F but from 950-850 it was almost above freezing-WAA does amazing things here in any winter and when it is a majot part of the pattern as I think it is this year watch out-it will get ya!!!

4. For Lawrence, I would not be surprised to see us go above freezing for a time either toady or for sure tomorrow-I think the issue is going to be the timing of the precipitation (shocker-when is not for here LOL) combined with when the next cold surge oozes in here. If we did not have the cold surge (again, look what happened on 12-2-the cold air rushed back in!!) coming back, I would say Lawrence would have all rain-however, while one can see the warm front on the surface charts, one can also see the next strong cold push developing over North East Montana and North West North Dakota so the colder air is again already on the move. I think maybe the GFS has a little better handle on how this will all play out-time will tell for sure, but again, another tricky/tough forecast-just like early December LOL!!!!

Sorry so long and drawn out but I have been thinking about these points for the last 24 hours and I hope they make some sense especially since it is so long!! My whole focus has been on enjoying the cold/snow we have now and seeing what Monday will bring-after Tuesday, I will start to think about after Tuesday LOL

Have a great day-I really think the team has put out great analysis of what is coming over the next 36 hours and as always, your forecasts speak for themselves!!! Again, as always, thanks for reading and for providing such a great place to discuss the weather. I have a story for you regarding the LRC and your forecasts that I will throw out tomorrow-it is a good story!!!



Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.  The WAA kicked in overnight...but not before St. Joe dropped to -9 and KCI to 0.  The clouds and a SE breeze helped temps to rise overnight.  But the clouds may hang tough...especially this morning.  So low to mid 20s for highs seems fine.  Areas farther north and east probably will be a little colder though.

Monday is not a huge system...but one that is at least causing a headache for me.  Lots of little things going on that keep about all precip. types in the forecast.  I think when it comes to snow accumulation the same favored areas this season will see the most.  At the moment this should be light accumulations.  And the next question will be what is light:)  To me light is somewhere around 1" give or take a little.  By 5pm today and during the afternoon WxPlus I will put a number on things.  Gary may add some thoughts later today since people have been asking LRC questions.

One thing is certain...behind the Monday storm it turns very cold again.  Probably for about 3 straight days.  My temps may even be a little generous those days:)

Jeremy

Nice update Jeremy, you rock!   Monday there could be freezing drizzle, to me that is the worst form of freezing precip.  Because its quick to freeze and light enough to cause MAJOR headaches on the road.  Hopefully it will be more snow.  Before I left for work it was 10.1 Degrees, which actually felt pretty nice after yesterday morning!   I hope the LRC comes through for us.  Because spring is nearing.  This is our window of opportunity between now an mid march to get nailed, March will be here in a blink of an eye.  Spring is going to be so nice by then!  Can you Imagine?
The LRC this year also the spring could be very interesting with lots of Thundestorms and wild temperature swings.  Have a great day Team NBC and Blogger Team.   **************** We'll try to get an update out by this afternoon. I want the new data to roll in and also speak with Gary. Jeremy

What is WAA? *************** Warm air advection. Jeremy

Really been in the deep freeze here.. fri night/sat morning went down to -10f then last night we dropped to -12f before it started to warm up.. i saw clarinda iowa went down to like -17f last night.. furnace has gotton a workout for sure.
*************** Keep us updated if you see light snow today. Counties that border Iowa may see a little light snow or flurries today. Jeremy

Hey,

My computer has been out, so I have not been able to post for a while,

But I have been reading the blogs, and watching the forecasts.....and Monday does not look promising at all for people down south of KC....looks like another January rain storm for us.....

and those warm temps next weekend aren't getting me too happy either....I hoped this arctic air would stay longer.....but we didn't get more than about an inch of snow so far this January.....

And I was also wondering why I am not seeing any of those storms Gary said would show up around this time...not much on the 7 day......

I am beggining to wonder if we will see any decent snowstorms at all this winter...and I am sure there are people that agree with me,

well lets hope Mondays storm becomes a giant snowstorm and hits the southern areas...although theres about a 5% chance we will get some flakes..lol


Brent ************** Brent, I was getting worried since we hadn't heard from you in a while! Gary will address the storms. They are there. Not everyone is going to be huge. Just look back to last week. There was snow...not much south...but there was a storm. I think maybe 6-10 days down the road we should have a bigger storm to talk about! Hang in there! Jeremy

Mondays storm looks pretty weak, I doubt anybody gets much out of it. *********** Like I said just light stuff if the thinking right now. The models show 2-3 periods of very light precip. Jeremy

Monday will be so weak with the snow north of us that you can't call it a storm. ************** That's why I've tried to refer to it as a system. Sometimes people here storm and go crazy:) Jeremy

It looks like everyone will get their snow around the time frame of Jan 28-Feb 2, give or take a day or two.....at least a couple of those days.

That Clarinda IA station reported -17 the night before too...I'm only 30 miles south of there and showed -1 for a low last night, so I'm thinking it may be on the fritz ************ Unless you had some wind...that may have kept the temp up. Jeremy

I am waiting to get excited after Friday. :)  The pattern starts changing after that. :)

Jeremy,
Any offers on your condo in WI?  

Kristi

gee I must say, the blog yesterday and today has been pitiful! What has happened to everyone?

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It's the weekend and everyone is trying to stay warm:)

Jeremy

In response to Kellyann's question I guess there just has not been much to talk about as of late...  

Sooo, I'll start a topic of "When Were They"...and no I don't have the answer which is why I'm going to ask.  

The question goes like this.  It seems I'm reading a lot of comments about how cold it is and all that stuff, yet I can recall some winters back in the '70's & '80's when we had to deal with days on end of -20 to -40 (and maybe lower as I no longer recall) windchills.  Homeowner's were dealing with all sorts of frozen water lines...including me...in houses that had never had frozen lines before.

Which then leads to the question does anyone remember which winters those may have been.

Bob

slow weak system, boring really = less blog activity

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Add on to that it is the weekend.  I'll update the blog around 4:30pm after the new stuff comes out.

Jeremy

Bob from Lawrence  73-74, 77-78, 79-80 81-83,76-77 and 83-84 these arethosoe 90=100 day winters with snow  and snow and bitter cold.  64-65 and 68-69 were the same as well,  I was young in the 60 but in the 70's I had a paper route and made a ton of money shoveling snow.  Then in 78-82 i was in college annd remember those years. . . 83-84. . .   OLD folks in tgeir 70's yalk about 59-60 and 47-48.

I'm back, been playing wii, but started getting tired of trying to beat super mario galaxy.

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I prefer guitar hero!

Jeremy

St. Joe Lawyer..thanks for the information.  

Moved my family to Lawrence in '76 and the years you have posted pretty much fit with what I can recall.  

And for sure some of those winters were pretty brutal with snow every few days and winds that seemed to howl out of the North all night with temps only around the 0 mark or so.

I can recall stories of house fires as folks got a bit too creative on trying to keep their pipes from freezing.  There was one day during all the fun when I was outside pulling some siding off from an overhanging section of our house in order to wrap more insulation around a number of our water pipes that had already frozen twice that winter.

Then a few years later when we had another serious winter still other pipes froze up that had escaped the first several times around.

Great fun those years were, although for Jeremy they would have been just a routine Wisconsin type of event.  

Bob

Also have to throw in winter of '89.  The lowest recorded temperature in KC history occured that winter.  I believe -24 right before Christmas...we lived on a farm at the time and breaking ice was a regular chore.  Usually an axe will break a hole large enough for the animals, but that winter we had to go to a chainsaw.  

Same for the winter of '84.  Temps were historically cold for several weeks leading up to and through Christmas.  Winter of 2000 was also very cold with ice exceeding 12" on major lakes and up to 15" on ponds, but that winter did not see -20+ readings like '89 and '84.

I love playing Madden '07 on the Wii!

ESE breeze with mostly cloudy skies here in St. Joe with temps UP to around 20, you know its been cold when you can say that here!   It does look like the GFS is starting to come around I think...

when is the blog going to be updated?  wondering about tomorrow and tues.

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I mentioned earlier around 4:30pm.  No worries for Tuesday...just cold!

Jeremy

What is a good source for local weather records?  I tried NWS but maybe I don't know how to use the site well enough.  I wanted to see what the temps were a year ago and see what records are and when they were set.  Also I used to use old blog post for some idea of what was happening in the recent past but now I can't seem to find a way to see them.  Hoping for NO ice tomorrow!!

Pats up 14-9 at halftime, YEAH!

Good afternoon Jeremy--I know you will update soon but I thought I would say I agree with Bill in Lawrence about the storm Monday looking like the December 1st one.  December 8th was the beginning of the ice strom around here so 54 days (I know it is an estimate) would put that big storm around the 30th or 31st.  I would think it would start showing its head sometime towards the end of this week.  I would expect a minor warmup before that next system which seems to be showing up here and other "sources" I read or listen to.  I just pray it is not an ice storm again.  Not much melting today in Berryton.  The snow is still here.  Take care--The Royals Caravan is on its way through Eastern Kansas this week!  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

It is tough to say for certain, but we believe that this next set up is more closely aligned with December 1st, or 51 days ago.  We will go into the details of where we are in the cycle in a blog entry on Tuesday after this next storm goes by.

Gary

My heater has been working overtime trying to keep up with the brutal cold outside. I'm afraid to see my gas bill!

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If costs to love the cold!

Jeremy

BOOOOOO

42 next Sunday!!!


BOOOOO

dang those 40's......sneaking back into the 7 day.....

doesn't look like any significant storm systems yet.....The arctic air came....now wheres those snowstorms?

the snow is virtually gone here.
does everyone else still have snow on the ground?

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I think you are right around the cut-off for the snow.

Jeremy

Yep, still plenty of snow on the ground here in Lenexa! About 3" I think. Not really liking those 40s in the forecast either:(  Oh well, its a week away, still has time to change!

David

Next Sunday looks AWESOME!

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Let's see if this holds...there is a strong cold front in the Great Lakes with the northern branch of the jet. 

Jeremy 

A friend up in Omaha had to got out and shovel her driveway today.  She says it's about 8 degree's colder there than it is here.

Any longranger for next week team?  Hope this deep freeze goes away.

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Deep freeze should go away for a short time by next weekend.

Jeremy