NBC Action Communities

Hi Jeremy!! It was a cold one this weekend. Is the warmer air towards next weekend expected or kinda a surprise?? Have a good day.
Monica
Pleasanton

******************

Not a surprise.  As Gary mentioned there would be brief warm-ups...but overall this active part of the pattern will be below average.

Jeremy

When is our next big chance of snow?

hello jeremy, so do you think mon will be like friday were it was real light precip, how many hour of precip this whole event monday? i think you for your time

*****************

Could be 3-6 hours of precip.  Should be light.  Really depends on how early the precip. starts and how quick the next front arrives.

Jeremy

It is doesn't fit, you must acquit.  LOL.  This Monday doesn't really fit, and it is going to be light if anything at all.  I will be interested to see what readings are had at KMCI.  I would bet it will be T if at all.

"If you have been looking at the GFS long range numbers for the next 3-4 days they are generally too warm. "

Jeremy - why?

I will really be watching to see if it does warm up.  I will be watching both the trend and the actual numbers the next 5 days.  It would seem based on the surface trends, it should warm up a couple of those days in that range.

We will have to see...

------------------

Scott,

Oh, but it does fit!

Gary

Melting! :( Hate it!! Hopefully there will be another Arctic Blast soon!! Is Mondays storm the same as December 1-2, 2007 storm?

Jeremy, the sun angle is still pretty low, but you can definetely notice the days getting longer. Especially compared to the northeast, I noticed watching the game at about 4:00p.m. our time it was almost dark in New England. How many minutes of daylight do we gain here this month. **************** Check this out... http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php

I must be losing my mind.  I really thought 1/21/08 00Z as referenced in the map above would be 7PM [CDT] 1/20/08.  Am is missing the boat?

I like the 11/23 06Z map just as well to the above...deeper trough in the West, but should be - due to the stronger jet.

It think they both work.  Just me.

I don't like the variance in the cycle..I know its possible, but I don't like now seeing 51 days.  That tells me it could be 3 days either way, or 51-57 day cycle.  That is a week variance which I could begin to make other maps fit as well.  It makes things too subjective for my liking.

I will shut up now.

---------------

Scott, we have seen this every year.  It isn't perfectly 54 days, but it may average out that way. It has been almost perfect up until this point though.  And, it is 6 PM.  After the time change it will be 7 PM again later in March.

Gary

Gary - if it fits, can you explain to me why?

Thanks.

-----------------

Scott,

• #1:  it is almost 51 days
• #2:  It lines up and what happens previously and next as forecasted by the models lines up

Not only is this Monday set up somewhat related to the early December set up, but it is also related to last weeks set up.  This is another part of the LRC that we have also observed.  The pattern is unique to this year.  Surface set ups and upper level set ups look similar, not just on the cycle but at other times during the 54 days as well.  This is because of the all important, and not to be underestimated, "long term" longwave troughs and ridges.  Let's don't get into a big discussion until later this week, because I will be out for a few hours.

Gary

 

My Feb 2nd storm is looking very healthy right now...LOL - The fast GFS is showing it on Feb 1st right now.  Long range still.

---------------------

Scott,

We didn't realize that you have your own Ground Hog's Day storm?

Gary

2 Feb groundhog day storm...humm...we are having a parade that nite up here. . . that is one of the days I've pegged as well 1&2 Feb 7-8, 14 & 15, then 21&22 or there abouts. . .   ************ If these could happen during the week it would be appreciated. Last time around the weekends were too busy:) This time thru the cycle we will have a weekend morning show to keep everyone updated. Remember that starts this Saturday from 8-9am. Jeremy

I see more and more people doing surface trending...LOL

"And, it is 6 PM.  After the time change it will be 7 PM again later in March."

Thanks Gary - Your map above says 6AM  ;-)

stjoelawyer...great minds think alike.  I have many of the same dates based on surface trending.  Click my name for more details in the last blog at the bottom of the page.

Here is a teaser "On the 2nd, trending shows a trend for heavy precipitation. I would expect to see between 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid moisture possible. If snow, expect a major snow storm to hit the region. Based on temperature trends, I expect it to be snow."

;-)

----------------

Scott,

How many times Scott?  The surface is directly related to the upper levels.  You are just using the LRC! 

Gary

Hi, Stormdog here!!!  Woof!!! and salutations all:

It is my Friday, and I have 3 days off!!! So much for gloating.  Gary, Jeremy, Brett, Jeff - excellent job.  I don't give too many compliments on this blog as I prefer to be neutral, being an old friend of Gary's, but I was thinking last night, and need to say something.

The LRC is spot on, and over the years, I too have come to recognize that once a season sets up, it does the same thing over and over - 40 years plus weather watching - Gary's work on this is great, and really needs to be considered by the scientific community as a given valid theory, sometime.  Case in point - the Arctic Air Watch - this was forecast well in advance of anyone else, based on the LRC.  I am now convinced, totally, that this cyclic pattern exists.

No theory can be perfect, and the cycle may be 50 or 54 or 44 days - whatever - the cyclic manner of weather is what the theory illustrates.  Again, from the dog, finally, kudos guys.

Peace out, The Dog

----------------

Storm Dog,

Thank you so much!  It may be weeks, months, years, or decades, but eventually everyone will see this.  We are laying it out there and I am so glad that you have recognized this.

Gary

Gary,
based on the LRC how are we looking the last weekend of the 23rd in FEB.......

--------------------

We haven't gotten that specific.  That week should be the tail end of the stormy and cold stretch, so we may be about to warm up big time, but I haven't really analyzed it that closely.

Gary

Really, Gary?  

How do you repeatedly show the LRC?  With 500mb maps.  I have not used ONE 500mb map in my analysis, so please tell me how this is the LRC?

I am following a cycle.  You are following a cycle.  Cycle analysis is a broad concept in meteorology, from the ENSO cycles to teleconnections.  It is hardly a new concept.  You have a very specific way you do it which does not take any surface trending into account.  I have chosen to do it this way exclusively.

So again, without one map of analysis, tell me how this is the LRC?  If what I am doing is the LRC, please show me your surface trending.  To date, I have not seen this.

That said, yes..I am very well aware of the upper air to surface trending...but as far as analysis goes, that is a moot point.  When you begin explaining the LRC purely at the surface, I will begin to listen.

I apologize for my frustration, but what I am working on is not the LRC.  I many times have disputed your claim of when the cycle starts and ends.  I do not buy into this aspect of the LRC.

I do not use maps.  I do use longwaves, though because I believe this this aspect, I will mention it in my analysis.

Minus these major components of your theory, tell me again how this is the LRC.

All this said, I am a believer of the cycle.  I am a proponent of your general concept, but when others begin stretching the concept and finding new methods to apply it, it simply is not fair to oversimpfy or overextend the specific tenants you have explicitly expressed in defining the LRC.

I give you great kudos for the LRC.  But, any idea that morphs from it and is done differently cannot be mutually accepted as the same method just because it follows a similar concept.

Thanks.

One more thought before I leave this alone.  If you claim my surface analysis is using the LRC, then you know I am using August and September data.  That is documented.

If it is the same, explain to me how it is the LRC if the LRC begins in October/November?

I am all for the concept as stated above, and while related based on cycles and a relationship from upper air to the surface, the method of determination is much different.

How else did I find the cycle in early November?  Couldn't have been the LRC...could it?

Ok..I will leave this alone now.  Have at it.

Gary and Jeremy, some of us have been asking, since last week, if either of you see any ice situations coming soon. No definitive answer was given, until this weekend.  Onlly a  possibility of SNOW for tomorrow was mentioned during the past week.

And, Gary, even on your 10:00 P.M. forecast Friday night you only metioned snow for romorrow. Am I wrong? If so, I appologize. If not, I was just wondering why you didn't see tomorrow'a ice/freezing drizzle..or at least didn't mention the possiblity of it, if you did see it.

*******************

I know the last couple of days and at least since Friday we have had a mix/snow in the forecast for Monday.  When I came in Saturday morning Gary's forecast had a mix/snow in there for Monday.  If temps are only a degree or two cooler it may be all snow in KC. 

Right now I have a chance of a mix in later this week.  Hopefully that answers your question.

Jeremy

At first, Gary told me that the first 5"+ snowstorm would be around the 25th(Friday), but the high for that day is 32 and a chance of a mix. Has the pattern changed at all? By the way, when is the first good snow going to arrive for those of us near OP?

----------------

We never did get this specific.  Remember, we think the stormy part of the pattern will be from late January through February 20th.  And, the storms seem to be lining up on the latest models.  So be patient.

Gary

Very Interesting... Cooooolll!!

I am beginning to think the best chance of getting some good snowfall totals in KC is just to take out a big chunk of SE Nebraska and NE Kansas and build a big lake for some lake effect snow.  


:-)

****************

I've lived right by the Great Lakes for years...both Michigan & Superior.  If you like snow they are nice, but they can ruin a nice spring day in a hurry.  The lake breeze can turn a 70 degree day into a 40 degree day in minutes.  It is crazy...but happens.

Jeremy

Lot of work, but it would be worth it for more snow heavy! I would probaly vote 'yes' :)

I like cooler weather

   Hello Jeremy, Do you expect problems on roadways tomorrow night / and Tues morning? Thanks, sorry about your Packers also, I was pulling for them also!!

**************

The precip. looks light tomorrow.  I can't rule out some slippery areas since the viewing are is large.  But with surface temps around freezing the impact at the moment looks low.  If temps are a degree or two cooler this may be a little different.

Actually I'm a Vikings fan and my wife is the Packers fan.  I'm offering the Packers tickets with my home though.  That is about as involved as I get with the Packers:)

Jeremy

How do you determine high and low temps? I know it has to do with 850mb, is like this: example the 850mb is always 10 degree cooler/warmer than the surface? or something like that? The only way I know how is using the surface temp forecast at this site: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/  

-------------------

Andrew,

I would suggest you just start forecasting highs and lows.  Do it every day.  You don't have to tell anyone in the blog about what you are forecasting, but you can just keep track of it yourself.  In the next year or two you will develop some skills. 

It is more instinct than anything else when you are a great forecaster.  But this instinct develops when you start doing it.

Gary

Weak storm.....


but another one to taunt us...
I still trust you and the Lrc Gary...,


Brent

-----------------

Brent,

Thanks!  Now, hopefully when these storm systems return in the next two to four weeks let's hope you get a nice snow out of at least one of them.  I know you have said that you want more than one, but let's start with one.

Gary

Hello eveyone, just wonder what is a "surface temp" im not sure, just wondering

----------------

A surface temperature is the actual temperature that we forecast for the high and low of that day.

Gary

Andrew,

Using the 850mb is just one method.  Following it alone will get you in trouble.  Also, depending on season, the ratios vary.

It will take practice and experience.  Below is a link that may help you in the different factors to consider.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/tempfx/

Hope this helps.

Or..you can save time and focus on other aspects of forecasting and get your temps from your most accurate weather source here.

;-)

******************

Also look at cloud cover, wind direction, up-stream temperatures from the previous day, etc.  Often times too many variables to consider.

Jeremy

guys, when do you think our next best chance of a snowstorm is?

thanks Gary,and Scott!

I notice the gfs is showing Arctic Air building again and spreading into Canada next week. Fit the LRC?

the biggest snowstorm i got this year was only 3 inches......

My 5 Day Forecast:

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/weathercast5day.htm

Hi Guys..

I know that the only thing that matters about the LRC is what actually happens, and not what the models say will happen, but for being in the part of the pattern that starts to get exciting, the GFS sure does look as boring as it possibly can for the next 15 days.  Hope it's wrong, but ultimately I fear it may not be, as many of the "strorms" that we have had this winter haven't exactly been real newsworthy, minus the December 29th storm off to the north and west of the city.  Those of us off to the east can barely get a decent snowstorm out of all the snow we have had combined together....Here's hoping the next few weeks prove then model wrong...

Matt.

Gary or whoever,

                      Where down the road do you guys see a chance of a big snow producer??? This winter has been exiting but has had its down moments...Im now just ready for a widespread big snow event...BRING IT ON!!!!

Gary:

Good clear chilly morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 23 degrees under clear skies-not bad at all out this morning!! Had a great time out at our cabin on Lone Star Lake yesterday-unlike last year, no walking on the ice!!!! I was surprised however that the ice in our cove was almost 4 inches thick.

Just a couple of quick observations:

1. We have not been above freezing since 3:00 P.M. on Wednesday-not bad at all!!!

2. Based on the latest surface obervations, the warm front has for sure risen North of us, but it appears it has hit a wall-we stayed steady last night temp. wise but I really thought we would have risen 2-3 degrees over night. Kind of interesting

3. The most interesting thing for me this morning is that on the latest surface charts, there is a weak surface low just southeast of Concordia, Kansas that is drawing down the colder air. Concordia, Kansas is currently at 14 degrees where as Manhattan is at 24 degrees. The cold front seems to be located currently between Concordia and Manhattan-there are some single digits in South central Nebraska this morning. The race is on as far as if and how far we actually get above freezing today.

4. On the water vapor imagery this morning and this may be out on a limb observation, but I think you can really see that cross polar flow as the flow is comming directly off of the North Pole

Like I have always said, it does not take much to amuse me and for me watching the progression of the front today is going to be fun/interesting. The race is on!!!
I have not had a chance to look ahead or behind for that matter and hope to do so today. However I think the models beyond maybe even four days are going to be like trying to run Windows Vista with a Pentium II processor and 256MB of Ram-there is just so much for them to ingest right now that they will have varying solutions-the Euro yesterday was a great example-0z very warm-12Z not so much!! Stick with the LRC!!!!

Have a great day and Happy Martin Luther King day-may we continue to strive to achieve the dream-some day we shall succeed. I do have a story regarding the LRC, but do not have the time to do it jusctice this morning so I will wait. Thanks as always for reading and providing such a great place to discuss weather

Bill in Lawrence