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Two more Arctic fronts are lining up

Good morning NBC Action Weather bloggers,

 

Look below at the surface map from around 6 AM this morning, Martin Luther King Day:

Sfc 615AM.gif

There is some organization to this storm near the surface, but it is not very organized aloft.  The surface low really is a weak low pressure area, but strong enough to draw in some warmer air from the south.  There is a very good chance that we will rise to near or above freezing today.  It will become cloudy by early this afternoon.  And, then some light precipitation is likely later this afternoon through around midnight.  But, with not much upper level support to cause lift and with very limited mid level moisture we are expecting only light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and then a change to light snow.  Accumulations of 1/2 inch will be possible this evening.

As you can see to our north and north west, the Arctic air is just sitting there and ready to blast us again.  As the low pressure area (surface cyclone) moves by, we can expect the temperatures to plunge again.  As they go back down below freezing even a dusting of snow on the roads could cause some slick spots to develop between 6 PM and midnight.

Another Arctic front is going to blast in on Wednesday, and there is a good chance that we will be back down to near zero on Thursday morning.  A warming trend will move in Friday into the weekend, but with some clouds and a weakening storm. 

We will have an update after the new data comes out later this morning.   Have a great day!

Gary

Published Monday, January 21, 2008 6:35 AM by glezak

Comments

 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Had the Get Smart scenario again today LOL!! I just posted in the previous Blog-missed by that much!!! LOL-I'll just leave it there!!! Have a great day sir and as always, thanks so much for providing so much great information on the Blog!!!

Bill in Lawence-wow-this is my shortest blog of all time LOL

----------------

Bill,

I know, sometimes I am writing the new morning blog and when I post it you have just come in with your comment. 

Have a great day.  The weather pattern will be interesting to follow during the next week.  When we moved into December we were uncertain of when our first snow would be, and then suddenly it snowed on December 6th, and many more times since then. So, it doesn't matter what the GFS, European, UKMET, and other models are doing.  They will be taking this ridge, developing over the Rockies this week, and trying to repeat it.  It will fool most everyone into thinking it is going to be warm from later this week on.  It won't be, but there will be ups and downs, and then those storm systems will highly likely be returning soon.

Gary

January 21, 2008 6:50 AM
 

bulldog said:

NWS is calling for some possible ice but with no time frame.  Do you see any ice?  I saw the NBC forcast this morning and it didn't seem defined as far as ice goes.  The snow is fine.  I can get traction on that.  Also where can we find past weather record for kc?  Thanks, keep up the good work.  We knew this last weekend would be cold because it was our anniversary and then you predicted it as such.  So we made plans around the cold and were surely not dissapointed!!

-------------------

We believe that if there is any freezing drizzle it would be extremely light.  There is no threat of an ice storm today.

Gary

January 21, 2008 8:18 AM
 

Ross said:

"It will fool most everyone into thinking it is going to be warm from later this week on."

I know what you mean Gary.  I was flipping channels and just caught another station calling for gradual warm-up all week to get to the 50's this weekend.  I just shook my head and moved on to your blog.  ;)

---------------------

Well, 50s are possible this weekend.  It is in the next two to three weeks where will will have some more cold shots from Canada and likely more Arctic air.  This is really what I am talking about.  There will be some warm ups in between each storm system, and this weekend could be one of them.  We will look into this as the new data comes out.

Gary

January 21, 2008 8:25 AM
 

Brent said:

arctic fronts.....but no storms ....
next we will have storms....but no cold air...

------------

Brent,

I will be surprised if it all doesn't come together soon.  My biggest concern is that we may end  up with a continuation of the trends of this entire season.  I hope not.  I do believe the storm systems are going to come back as expected.  I still anticipate them being stronger and more widespread, but until we see one do this I have concerns that they will do what they have been doing.

Gary

January 21, 2008 8:45 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Another quick check in-I think today is fascinating in and of itself and to my little hobbyist mind (still have the Bull Duraham line but I know what that 5 cent head of yours is thinking LOL) it is all playing out as the LRC forecasted (or maybe the emperor from Star Wars is better from Episode VI: It is all happening as I have forseen LOL)

Just looking at today what a difference 200 miles makes:

1. Our Temps. here are rising fast-already up close to 30 on the SW side of Lawrence and clouds are moving in quickly. However, just 200 miles NW in Concordia, it is 14 and holding steady-two different temperature worlds with in 200 miles of each other-pretty cool!!!

2. On the 13Z surface Data, it appears that the surface low has backed up a bit to the west but is indeed slowly deepening; however, also noticed that there is a 1034 MB High in Montana that is on the move. How these two interact today is going to be fun to watch.

For sure, this does not look to be much on the precip. front but I still think it is going to be fun to watch. I always get excited seeing the temperature differences and then following the progression of them-wierd I know, but it is fun!!! More so, I think in between writing syllabi and trying to keep 2 boys from driving each other crazy I should actually be able to follow this somewhat and maybe even get to look a little deeper into things from December and make some observations about the next few weeks and of course hope they make sense LOL!!!

Have a great morning-one good thing about it warming up today (I would of loved to have gone a week below freezing but this is Kansas-not the people of the south wind for nothing!!) is that maybe the snow will pack better and the boys and I can make the fort!!!! I am excited following this today!!

Bill in Lawrence

-------------------

Bill,

Good points.  The last one about the snow packing better.....it will be later today as the temperatures rise.  I will talk about your "warm front on steroids" point in my next update.  This is so related to that day, but in a much weakened state.

Gary

January 21, 2008 8:45 AM
 

heavysnow said:

Brent, we just have to build the lake for lake effect snow.  Its the only way!

January 21, 2008 9:07 AM
 

Brent said:

yeah, Its just a really good year up north and a really bad year down south. I wish we could have a mix of the two.

I'am also concerned that even if the storms come, that they will dump the heavy snows over northern MO and leave KC south with rain...with maybe a little snow.

I don't have much confidence that the trend will change all of a sudden, It seems that when more snow falls continually in the same place that it will continue to be so the whole winter.....
Oh well........theres always next year....


Brent
January 21, 2008 9:28 AM
 

Brent said:

I know heavysnow!!!!

That was an awsome idea, build a lake and we can get lake effect snow!!
We don't really need all that land up in Northeast Kansas do we ?
Lol
January 21, 2008 9:32 AM
 

lvsnow said:

Was wondering if anyone knew or could tell me where to find the most amount of snowfall for Leavenworth in one storm from start to finish.  Thanks
January 21, 2008 9:34 AM
 

RogOzSam said:

If we get freezing drizzle, anybody know where it will be?  And about what times?  Will it affect drives home -- Blue Springs to Warrensburg area.  Seems to be warmer there.  Freezing anything always makes me nervous driving in it!

------------

We aren't anticipating any problems from this set up at all.  If there are any, they would develop after the evening rush hour, but it will be very light precipitation.

Gary

January 21, 2008 9:38 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Just me again-another quirky observation:

1. Currently it is 31 in Salina and 12 in Hays-wow!!! Imagine driving out to go skiing-stop in Salina and need a lite jacket-get out of the car in Hays only about two hours away and you need a parka!!!!

2. The warm front has punched through to Concordia as they are slowly rising and their winds have shifted to the SE

3. The weak surface low on the 15Z charts is slowly lifting North East so the cold air is indeed filling in behind it and it is just flat out cold in South West Nebraska-single digits!!

4. This is indeed a pretty strong warm front-we have risen 11 degrees in two hours and it will be interesting to see just how far we get. Going out on a limb here, but considering how slow that surface low is moving and the fact we are getting some sun here this morning, I would not be surprised to see us nudge 40 or a little better but man, when that front swings through, it will be like the floor drop at Worlds of Fun!!! Just like what happened on 12-1!!

To most sane people, this is not that exciting but to me, when you have 31 and 12 degrees only 2 hours apart, that is pretty cool and fascinating-I love living here!!!

Ok, I will try and chill a little bit but fun to watch this today!!! Fun to stop and enjoy current weather!!

Bill in Lawrence

---------------

Bill,

I am with you on this one.  Today is a very exciting weather day, no doubt about it to me.  A warm front has passed through, and then, not just a cold front but an Arctic front will move through this evening.  We may only see a light mist or some very light snow, but it is still exciting.

Gary

January 21, 2008 9:58 AM
 

stjoelawyer said:

I am at 31.1 now up here milky skies, you can make snowballs now, cold air invasion in about 4 hours.  Will this unexpected warmer air with more moisture allow for a little mur snow aftre the front passes?
January 21, 2008 10:48 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Sorry but one last quirky observation:

1. I am now pushing 40 degrees

2. Concordia has warmed up 15 degrees in the last 2 hours with a south wind

3. Salina on the flip side has dropped 10 degrees in the last hour with a west wind

4. Great day to jump on I-70 and just drive and record first hand the different temperature regimes

5. Will still be interesting to see just how warm we get here-really cool stuff!!!

Bill obsessed with temperatures in Lawrence

---------------------

Bill,

Enjoy the temperature ride.  The amazing thing is how it is near 10 degrees just northwest of the front.  It is going to drop tonight.

Gary

January 21, 2008 10:53 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Thanks for the update
January 21, 2008 11:15 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

36F here in Olathe. That means melting is occurring. :(  Come one Arctic Air get here faster before our 2" on Snow melt. I might need to move to Green Bay to enjoy some NICE Below Zero Temps.  

I was so close to today's low being around 18 or 19F.

I said 16F, I was going to go with 18 or 19F because the temps were not dropping much at 12am.
January 21, 2008 11:34 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Why does this seem similar to that storm in early December where the temps hit 60?

---------------------

Because it is similar to it!  This is actually a weak version of that set up.  It is pretty fascinating.  I will have a new blog up very soon.

Gary

January 21, 2008 11:37 AM
 

MikeL said:

At 4:00P here in southwest Topeka the temperature is 35.6F at my house so the arctic front has not passed here as of yet.  It is only 20F in Manhattan. I am expecting the front to move through sometime real soon...
January 21, 2008 4:06 PM
 

Brett34 said:

Gary, do you really think we are going to have "any" precipitation.  I went to Leavenworth today, nothing between there between 1pm got back at 430, I saw a few extremely small sleet pellets that lasted less than 5 minutes.  I have looked at NWS they are talking about a rapid development of freezing drizzle... I don't know, but I dont see it happening.  Practically zilch on radar.  Was just wondering if you may think otherwise from early posts.  Thanks- Brett in Olathe.  
Temp 36.7 degrees SE wind 6mph, the temperature is steady, I know for fact though that will change, was just wondering about the precip.  I missed you guys at 5, kids are watching Tom and Jerry, So here I am, LOL.  Have a great evening NBC weather pro's!  

-------------

Thanks,

I am not surprised that nothing has happened yet.  I do expect some very light snow, or some light freezing drizzle.  But, nothing yet.  Thank you for the report.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:41 PM
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