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Precipitation is forming at 2 PM January 21, 2008

Good afternoon bloggers,

Look at the surface map from noon today.  Can you plot where the low, cold front, and warm front are located?  And, can you tell me where it is snowing at this hour?  I will have the answer plus your weather update around 2 PM today.  This is your test between now and then.

SFC Noon low.gif

Here is the answer to today's weather map test.  Andrew, one of our favorite bloggers has come a long way in his map drawing.  I remember a few he sent to me during the past couple of years.  I will give him a solid A on this analysis below.  This is Andrew's map and I just drew in some arrows.  Great job Andrew!

SFC noon Fri Andrew.bmp

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for tonight. I will have an update later this evening as the front approaches.

Precipitation is rapidly developing on Live:ESP this afternoon.  The low pressure area (surface cyclone) is continuing to move east northeast.  As soon as the wind shifts to a westerly component, then you will have a big temperature drop.  Manhattan had a wind shift from south to west southwest and their temperature just dropped from 37 to 27 degrees.  The front should move through most of our local area by 9 PM tonight.  The precipitation that falls will be in various forms, but we are not expecting more than a few hundreths of an inch.  There could be some problems later this evening developing on the roads.  We think it will be minor, but it is something we will monitor closely on our newscasts at 5, 6, and 10 PM.

Have a great afternoon.  We will try to update the blog later if there are any other developments.

Gary

Published Monday, January 21, 2008 12:13 PM by glezak

Comments

 

kellyann said:

It looks like the front is in Northwest Ks, the wind is out of the north and snow?

---------------

It is snowing there as you can see by the two snowflakes, or really asterisks on the observation indicating light snow.

Gary

January 21, 2008 12:40 PM
 

Alden said:

It appears that the low is on the KS/NE border/
January 21, 2008 12:50 PM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

I will take a stab at this-may just show much I really don't know LOL!!

The front is drapped from a North of Bethany, Missouri line to between Concordia and Manhattan, Kansas to just east of Salina and North West of Hutchison. The surface low is located just south east of Concordia, Kansas and it is snowing in Hill City, Kansas into Russell and then through much of South Central Nebraska.

What a fascinating day to watch and follow!!! Currently at 41 in SW Lawrence and the winds are a howling with clouds thickening

Have a great early afternoon!!! I'm sure I will blog again soon LOL

Bill in Lawrence
January 21, 2008 12:56 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

The low is around the KS/NE border. The warm front in northern MO/southern IA.

The Cold Front is by MHK extending into Central KS just west of Wichita,KS.

Email coming your way.
January 21, 2008 1:01 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

 Hello gary, i know this is out of the way of your blog, but do thinks road ways are gonna be slick/ HOW many hours of precip should we expect? thanks so much for your time
January 21, 2008 1:02 PM
 

heavysnow said:

The musical notes looking lines are showing wind direction?
January 21, 2008 1:19 PM
 

heavysnow said:

BTW- It does not feel like Mid 30's outside right now, its cold.  
January 21, 2008 1:21 PM
 

heavysnow said:

I see some light precip forming south in Texas up to Southern Missouri.  
January 21, 2008 1:22 PM
 

Snow Lover said:

What is the red dot with a circle around it just south of Denver Co?
January 21, 2008 1:22 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

The circle around the dot means the wind is calm. And the red dot I think is cloudy? I'm not sure on that part.

David
January 21, 2008 1:25 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Gary,
Emailed you our answer.  Hope you received it alright

Stacy n weather buddy Robert
January 21, 2008 1:31 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Im going to say the low is in north central Colorado and the front goes through central KS up to southern IA...
January 21, 2008 1:56 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Gary,

I think I see the front moving through Topeka on the Topeka radar. Is this right?
It also looks like there is an area of precipitation developing right over us to all the way west of Topeka.

David

-------------

David,

It may show up soon, but right now that is just a band of light precipitation rapidly developing.

Gary

January 21, 2008 1:56 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

YAAAAY  a B..  not too shabby for a rookie.  

Sittin back watching this interesting weather day,

Stacy n the gang

--------------

Stacy,

Not bad!  I did give you a B, and your analysis was almost right on.

Gary

January 21, 2008 2:15 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

I'll get this mastered yet..  maybe
January 21, 2008 2:20 PM
 

Brent said:

Hey Gary,

First off....my computer was fixed today.....so I will be posting again.

second....can I please get your best guess for a good snowstorm around here?....I certainly won't hold you to it....but something to look forward to would be nice...I am not too good at reading long range maps...but if you see a big storm taking shape for the weeks to come...can you tell me when please?...thanks

Brent

-------------

Brent,

For Harrisonville or for St. Joseph (LOL).  Bad joke isn't it.  Sorry Brent.  There were storm systems showing up on the models as of a couple of days ago, and now the flow is forecast to flatten out.  However, I still think our series of storm systems will begin within a week or 10 days.  So, you should have a good chance of snow in the first half of February.

Gary

January 21, 2008 2:34 PM
 

Brent said:

why is there a winter weather advisory to our south????
January 21, 2008 2:35 PM
 

RogOzSam said:

Does anyone know when the freezing drizzle is going to start?  And about where?  Is it north or south of KC?  I live in Kingsville (JoCo Missouri) - about 20 miles west of Warrensburg.  No one's saying anything about it!  I got a NWS email alert for winter storm - mentioned the freezing drizzle and hazardous roads.  Anybody?
January 21, 2008 2:39 PM
 

RogOzSam said:

That's what I'm trying to find out!  I'm just the average "watch the weather" kind of person - I can't read the maps - and just wanted some "practical" non-complicated information!
January 21, 2008 2:40 PM
 

heavysnow said:

NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a large area of KS and MO.  

It said the main reason for the issue was a chance of freezing drizzle.  The ground temps are going to obviously be below freezing, whatever precip falls will stick.  I would think the side streets and sidewalks are the main concerns because it is going to be light.  
January 21, 2008 2:44 PM
 

Brent said:

FURTHER SOUTH...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD LEAD TO A THIN GLAZING ON AREA ROADWAYS AND IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS ADVISORY.
January 21, 2008 2:46 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I just saw that posted in the NWS site, heavysnow.  It looks like it could get a little slick later.  Be careful!

Kristi
January 21, 2008 2:47 PM
 

Brent said:

Now the south part of the viewing area gets some action......although not the good kind....

January 21, 2008 2:50 PM
 

RogOzSam said:

But do you think the roads between 5 and 6:30 will be okay - just because of traffic?  Or are they going to be really icy.  50 Highway is pretty hilly - not a nice road with ice - drizzle or regular!

-------------

The front will still be west of us, so I think we are O.K. for areas east and southeast of the city through early evening.

Gary

January 21, 2008 2:52 PM
 

Brent said:

Dang, the 7 day is depressing.
January 21, 2008 2:53 PM
 

Brent said:

LOL it got posted twice......just emphasizes how depressing it is.....

-------------

Brent,

The weather can change fast.  Let's see how it looks later this week.

Gary

January 21, 2008 2:56 PM
 

pihwht said:

No rain in Brookside just now when I took the dog for a walk. Clouds seem close, but eaves are dripping.
January 21, 2008 3:02 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Gary, do you think we will have any trouble on the roads tonight-tommorrow?
January 21, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Brent said:

Lets hope it changes really fast and really dramatically.
January 21, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Gary,

Its SNOWING IN LENEXA!!! Its 36° but yet it is snowing! Just hope we can squeeze out a little more when it will actually stick. :)

David
January 21, 2008 3:08 PM
 

Brent said:

"However, I still think our series of storm systems will begin within a week or 10 days.  So, you should have a good chance of snow in the first half of February.

Gary"

What happened to the 25th?......
I believe it was "the 25th through the first part of Feb"

maybe I'm wrong....
---------------

Brent,

I thought you said you weren't going to pin me down?  LOL  We said that the stormy part of the pattern would return between the 25th and February 20th.  The 25th is just the first date we had down. 

Gary

January 21, 2008 3:08 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

Hello Gary,  I know it doesn't take much for icy spots, but here in metro do you thank the road will be bad late tonight/ tomorrow morning? What does Wednesday look like? I see you have a chance of snow, Do you have a Super Bowl Prediction?
January 21, 2008 3:09 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

Looks like the whole viewing area is under a Winter Weather Advisory now
January 21, 2008 3:11 PM
 

Brent said:

and thank goodness.....

I was about to faint from depression...lol
a winter weather advisory is encouraging....
January 21, 2008 3:20 PM
 

nastyweather said:

As cold as the roads and bridges are it won't take much freezing precip to cause problems out there.  Also, with the timing of this after sundown, black ice is possibility, and not something you want to find the wrong way.  Had a near death experience on black ice and wouldn't wish that on anyone.  Anyway, let's hope this is just light snow.

On another topic, I know many of us in the immediate KC Metro area have been downplaying the winter weather so far.  However, it can't be underestimated how bad it's been just north of KC.  This article says Westar has spent between $73 and $85 million to fix the power supply from the Dec 9-10 ice storm.  WOW that's pretty bad!  I sure hope that nasty storm doesn't cycle back for the end of January and first of February.

http://www.kansascity.com/382/story/453886.html
January 21, 2008 3:25 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

i like snow but NO ICE!
January 21, 2008 3:25 PM
 

RogOzSam said:

Brent you're too funny! We don't like the icy kind of weather advisories -- just snow!  Put on your moccasins and go do a snow dance!
January 21, 2008 3:26 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Gary, do you think this week is the last of the truely cold artic air we will see this winter? Or will we see some more, but with a shorter duration? This past 5 days has been brutal on my farm critters. And I don't think I can take much more worry about the cold.
January 21, 2008 3:54 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I would much rather have snow than ice.

Kristi
January 21, 2008 4:09 PM
 

MikeL said:

At 4:00P here in southwest Topeka the temperature is 35.6F at my house so the arctic front has not passed here as of yet.  It is only 20F in Manhattan. I am expecting the front to move through sometime real soon...Mike
January 21, 2008 4:09 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Overcast skies and stout southerly winds ruled the day today in St. Joe pumping our temps up to the mid thirties!!  A dramatic warm up considering that we were -12 a few nights ago!!!  Well it looks like the pattern continues to be active, just that the warm air looks to start putting up a fight later on, either way it looks to still be a fun ride!
January 21, 2008 4:18 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Why in the world did i say the low was in Colorado...you can tell it is in NE Kansas....Well i have to walk walk my dog and its freakin windy and cold!!!
January 21, 2008 4:20 PM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Quick late afternoon update:

I see where I didn't follow directions very well on the map this afternoon-teachers always make the worst students and we rarely follow directions very well LOL

Sitting at 38 here but have managed to keep much of our snow-cloud cover can be a blessing!!! What a fun day to watch all of this develop-amazing temperature contrasts in East Central Kansas this afternoon-this is what makes living here so interesting!!!


Oh, I sent you an email with some stuff I think I see after I sniffed through some past information today-it is prob. just stuff and nonsense but I got kind of excited anyway!!! Not surprisng huh!!!! LOL

Have a great evening-can't wait to get that first feel of the arctic air again!!

Bill in Lawrence
January 21, 2008 4:20 PM
 

MikeL said:

The front is now passing through southwest Topeka! At my house the temp dropped over 5 degrees in the past 15 minutes:

4:10P  35.6F
4:25P  30.0F

Bill (in Lawrence) , it looks like you might not have to wait much longer!  :)

Mike
January 21, 2008 4:29 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Now it looks like the center of the surface cyclone in right near the Northwest tip of Missouri, it is really showing up well on the surface obs. If you loop the obs., you can see it just swirl toward the north east.
January 21, 2008 4:37 PM
 

RDub said:

The only depressing thing I see on the 7-day forecast is Thursday's low temperature...well, Tuesday and Thursday's highs look brutal too.

January 21, 2008 4:39 PM
 

nastyweather said:

Gary are we still on track for 9pm here, because if that fronts already moving through Topeka, I wouldn't think it would take another 4.5 hours to reach us?

------------------

It will take another two to three hours to reach the western part of the metro area.  So, it should pass through between 7 and 10 PM.

Gary

January 21, 2008 4:41 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

Good Evening Everyone, just wonder anyone know the time frame for the precip to fall here in the metro?
January 21, 2008 4:57 PM
 

mattmaisch said:

18Z GFS....Another real yawner for the next 384 hours....This trend is moving beyond irritating.  That would take us through the first week of February and still not one person in the region would have seen a "major" snow storm the entire winter.  That is assuming the GFS were to be correct.  Guess we'll wait and see...  

What are your thoughts on the next 2 to 3 weeks at this point Gary???

Thanks,
Matt..
January 21, 2008 5:01 PM
 

ethalo said:

I am re-posting my blog from last night, because the first part was left out (or censored?) I would hope not. I was not trying to criticize...just questioning why the possiblity of freezing precip. was not foreseen by our NBC weather team, whom we all rely on.
Here is my post from last night. The first paragraph (about the "other" blog) was omitted when it got posted.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Taken from "another" blog that was posted Jan 12, 2008  
J L wrote "The week of the 21st is the trick...and I'm increasingly concerned about some ice set-ups."

Gary and Jeremy, some of us have been asking, since last week, if either of you see any ice situations coming soon. No definitive answer was given, until this weekend.  Onlly a  possibility of SNOW for tomorrow was mentioned during the past week.

And, Gary, even on your 10:00 P.M. forecast Friday night you only metioned snow for romorrow. Am I wrong? If so, I appologize. If not, I was just wondering why you didn't see tomorrow'a ice/freezing drizzle..or at least didn't mention the possiblity of it, if you did see it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now we are under an advisory. And it seems you have been minimizing the effects of light freezing drizzle...which can cause black ice. Please don't minimize this. It can definitely wreak havoc and cause serious injury. I have had a personal tragic experience with it.

------------------

We did see this set up for today and we thought it would be very minor.  We don't see any ice set ups at this time.  So, maybe this is why we didn't quite answer your question, or it got lost in all of the comments one day last week.  We apologize.

Anyway, this is a very minor event, and not an ice set up at all and once again we don't see any ice setups at this time.  There could be something in February, but we will have to wait and see how the storm systems, that we are expecting, line up. But, not the week of the 21st.  Does this make sense or answer your question?

And, if you are a regular viewer, then you would know we won't ever "minimize" or maximize anything.  We always will tell you what may happen.  So, far nothing.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:19 PM
 

MikeL said:

Here in southwest Topeka the temp is now 22.6F.  That is a drop of 13 degrees in not quite 90 minutes. A mix of freezing drizzle/very light snow is falling.  We are starting to get glazing on objects like cars and my back deck for instance.  I'm not sure if the roads are being affected yet...my driveway still seems only wet.  Mike
January 21, 2008 5:38 PM
 

Brent said:

"I thought you said you weren't going to pin me down? "

lol that was on my personal question of the big snow...you said on air that between the 25th and the first part of Feb. would be harsh winter weather.....so far we have had cold air...but no real storms.....


"We don't like the icy kind of weather advisories -- just snow!  Put on your moccasins and go do a snow dance!"

lol I said:  "although not the good kind.... "




Brent

January 21, 2008 5:40 PM
 

Brent said:

"18Z GFS....Another real yawner for the next 384 hours....This trend is moving beyond irritating.  That would take us through the first week of February and still not one person in the region would have seen a "major" snow storm the entire winter.  That is assuming the GFS were to be correct.  Guess we'll wait and see... "
................................................................................................
from what I have been looking at...I agree......

-----------------

Brent,

Did you guys see the 18z GFS correctly?  There is a massive snowstorm predicted from 240 to 264 hours.  Come on, let's be fair to the GFS (LOL).  I am not predicting this yet, but look at it.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:41 PM
 

sandy said:

Hiawatha KS - Freezing mist as of 5:30pm.  Had a light coat of ice on my car.  How long is this going to last???

--------------

I would say it will change to flurries and end within 5 hours for you in Brown county.

Thanks for the report.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:42 PM
 

Brent said:

already ice in northern Mo.......

-----------------

Brent,

Yes, it is freezing drizzle up there. We will track it this evening.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:44 PM
 

ethalo said:

Yes Gary, thank you for responding. But I still do not remember any mention ALL ofl last week of ice/ or mix.(particularly by you)..I only remember your (on air) predictions of possible snow for tonight. I love snow, but not ice or "freezing drizzle"...esp the kind you can't see.
I do know how busy you are and appreciate you taking the time to respond.

-------------

Remember, whether I love snow, ice, hail, sunshine, thunderstorms, etc........it will NEVER influence how we predict the weather.  I may get excited about snow, no doubt about it, but if it is a chance of ice you will get the most accurate forecast right here every time.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:49 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Last Friday he did have in the chance of freezing drizzle or drizzle. I know because I just went back through the archived videos. Are you sure you watched on Friday? He had a 60% chance of liquid precipitations OR snow.

----------------

Thank you bloggers,

We aren't allowed to slip up once.  If we do, oh my!  I know it will happen some day, but so far not this winter.

Gary

January 21, 2008 5:52 PM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good evening to you sir!!

Just a quick check in (I know I know-me and quick are like oil and water LOL)

Front blew through SW Lawrence at about 5:40-was driving back from taking my oldest son to Martial Arts felt the wind come up so rolled down the window-hello!! My youngest son and I went outside and faced North and said hello to the cold air rushing down-I've really lost it haven't I!!!! LOL

Temp. dropping fast here-already down to 30!!

Have a great evening

Bill in Lawrence
January 21, 2008 6:11 PM
 

snoman said:

Gary,
I was wondering if the storm showing up on the 18z gfs for around the 31st or the 1st of next month fits into the LRC? looks very impressive now, but who knows its still 10 days away!        
                                Thanks, Tony/atchison,ks

----------------

Tony,

It is impressive, but it is a one model trend.  We need a good 2 days worth of models before I start to even think about analyzing it.  It was there in some form or another on Friday and Saturday's extended, and now its back.  We will know more soon.

Gary

January 21, 2008 6:13 PM
 

jbtornado said:

I beg to differ with Brent on us having no major systems this winter...In December we had a string of systems on weekends causing major problems. One was a near miss with an ice storm, that did get Nebraska and Iowa rather harshly. Another was one that struck NW Missouri and the Northern third of Kansas and practically shut them down with tremendous amounts of ice accumulating on trees with thunder and lightning! Then we had a major snow system after this with 4-8" across most of Kansas  and Northern Missouri just 4 days after this ice storm and blizzard like conditions the weekend before Christmas!

I also will never forget the major tornado outbreak in Missouri and Wisconsin and Illinois so far in January...

Now with that said Gary, I'm quite concerned areas of Southern Missouri will not see a major snowstorm this winter and I'm worried we could have more ice storm issues in February.. Please tell me I'm wrong because I do not like that ice!

Jon

-----------

Jon,

We will know soon.  I still think there is potential in the next three weeks, but it won't surprise me if it hits the same areas again.

Gary

January 21, 2008 6:15 PM
 

Brent said:

I heard you say at the end of the weathercast that theres a big snowstorm showing up next week...was that a joke to the other news people?...or is there one?...you should blog about it if there is...lol

Brent

-------------

Brent,

It just slipped out.  It is just fantasy on the latest GFS run, for now.  Let's see how it looks in a day or two.

Gary

January 21, 2008 6:22 PM
 

Brent said:

"I beg to differ with Brent on us having no major systems this winter...In December we had a string of systems on weekends causing major problems. "

we in Harrisonville did not.....we got 2 inches from the storm you guys got 10 inches out of...
January 21, 2008 6:25 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

35.5 down to 32.1 nope now 32 ai 1845hrs front just went by.
January 21, 2008 6:46 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I am not one to seek out someone who posted and disagree..BUT, when Gary and the team forecast a low of 2 degrees....he is forecasting for the metro area of KC. So therefore when he states something like, "we had a string of systems on the weekends causing major problems" he is again stating it because in the metro area they had that kind of weather. We may not have it down here to the south but that does not mean what was stated by Gary and the team is wrong. They are forecasting for the metro area, not for us that live an hour or so south. They do a awesome job including us though. Of course the weather down here will be different, temps, snow amounts, ice accumulation ect. When he points out snow/rain amounts expected he will include us but him stating the above does not make it wrong when we only got 2 inches or less. So yes their has been major systems go through the metro area and we have recieved some too just not to the extent the northern viewers have seen.  
Monica
Pleasanton

-------------

Monica,

Thanks!  And, we are always trying to remember to forecast amounts and specifics for your area.  It is just that this season you haven't even been in a great chance of snow.  Maybe, just maybe, one will hit you in February.  At least you have had some good amounts of rain.  It isn't like everything has missed you, just the snow.......so far.

Gary

January 21, 2008 6:56 PM
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