NBC Action Communities

Gary,

Seems like you skipped over my question earlier.  Did I say something wrong?  I just want to know if you still think the next 2-3 wks will be really exciting.  Hopefully you do, but it doesn't look great to me.

Thanks,

Matt.

Temps have started dropping in St. Joe, my digital thermometer is now at about 32 degrees and there is a very light freezing mist occurring, felt the grill and the droplets are freezing to it, not even enough to make a "smooth" glaze though, you can kind of still feel the individual frozen drops on it. Wind is also blowing westerly.

Down to 19.8F at my house in southwest Topeka.  Looks like we now just have very light snow so I hope we are done with the freezing drizzle.  Mike

It doesn't look like its going to do anything on radar.... maybe some drizzle.  

light snow/drizzle mix at the fort...its getting colder, and windier!

Nothing here yet...

Hello Everyone, I am not weather expert by any mean, but after the precip falls , with the strong winds I would think that help dry up the pavement, I don't know!!!!Anyone?

----------------

I agree!  But, we must watch it carefully.  We think the temperature will drop so fast that it will change to snow or not ice up that much.  If the precipitation is heavier, just by a little bit then we could have a problem. Right now the echoes are very, very light. 

Gary

nothing in Parkville, still above freezing

Just got back in from a weekend of visiting my sister at Ft. Campbell Kentucky...ugh, I should have stayed!  LOL!  I hate winter.  

 So all the precip should move in and move out by Midnight?????????????

--------------

Yes!  Maybe a flurry after midnight.

Gary

Quick question..I am flying out of KCI to Denver on February 2nd to go wath the Jayhawks take on the Buffaloes.  Can you give me any prediction on what the weather pattern will be around this time? Thanks

Very light drizzle near Mill Valley High School in western Shawnee.  Temp has dropped to 25.

we have freezing drivzzle and temps falling thru the 20s here in leavenworth its getting slick will at least on the driveway and front porch.

I don't know.... the GFS for the 31st/1st of FEB does not necessary yell Snow at this time... and based on the LRC the storm fits in almost as the GFS paints it right now. Kansas City is on the borderline of the 0 C at 10m, and well above the 152 at 700-850 thickness with a real strong southerly flow aloft trying to pump warm moist air up into the cold air, as illustrated at almost all levels. If this storm is "in line" with the LRC it would hint to me that this may be more of an ice event for Northwest MO... but it is still 10-11 days out right now so much can change.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_sl7_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_252l.gif

interesting.....more ice?...........


its 33 here.

very, very, very light drizzle in Parkville. Temperature is at 28.

Yup... a warm up...

f00dl3 - I like the 31st/1st as a lead up to the 2nd.  Remember the GFS often runs too quick in the long range.  Storms tend to deepen and slow down more than the GFS shows.

Ice should be a forbidden word on these blogs along with dry slots and warm ups


:-)

Also, that storm is a bit too far north on the GFS.  I expect it to be a bit further south bringing the lower 850s with it, though there will be a period of WAA ahead of the low.

I think.

The snow, along with my winter hopes are going to be melting this next week, "cause I got a fever, and the only prescription for that fever is more snow." Please, just give me 5 inches, and I'll be satisfied for the rest of the winter!

I left work at my other job just before 7:30. I don't know how long it had been doing anything, but there was a light glazing on the car. Parking lot and roads slick in spots. It is now trying to mix towards snow. The temperature is down to 24. I was expecting more snow out of this up here so needless to say I was a little surprised that I had to scrape a little ice off the car.

  "heavysnow said:
Ice should be a forbidden word on these blogs along with dry slots and warm ups "

Agreed.

whats WAA?.....

Warm Air Advection

is there any big storms showing up for this week or next week?

It just plummeted to 28 here!.....wow

come on snow!!!!!

Light Freezing Drizzle in Kearney, starting to coat the deck with ice.

I hate to ask...but whats warm air advection?.....does that create ice?


its really windy here also.

WAA
   Warm Air Advection - the advection (movement) of warm air into a region.


It can help to produce precipitation. I think I'll let someone else explain it better.

David

Brent,

Warm air advection is the push of mid level warm air often found ahead of a surface low.  It is this warmness in the mid levels that can warm frozen precipitation from above to liquid as it falls through the column.  Depending on the surface temperatures and the depth of the warm air, it will affect how the precip hits the ground.  If the warm air is shallow, and the cold air below is thick enough and cold enough, it will attempt to refreeze and give you sleet at the surface.  If the warm air is thick enough and the cold air below is shallow enough, the precip will hit the ground as a liquid, but freeze on contact depending on the surface temps.

When WAA is present in the winter time, mixed precip is possible.  When WAA is present in the spring time, this is typically associated with a warm front extended out from the surface low.  This is normally a place to watch for stronger storms as it nears the frontal boundary.  Following the warm front into the low gives you the triple point.  But that is discussion for another day.

WAA in winter sometimes can be called overrunning.

There is probably a better way to explain this..and likely I have some meteorological errors in my simplification, but that is it in a nutshell.  Perhaps the team can give a better definition.

Here is a good explanation. I think you have recommended this site before, Scott?


http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/254/

David

You said on your 6:00 news that there would be a mix at 8:00.Why is it not mixing rite now?

----------------

I just went outside and saw snowflakes, frozen drizzle, and freezing drizzle.  It is a mix.

Gary

still some light freezing drizzle in Parkville

they maybe should not have issued the WWA

Quick question..I am flying out of KCI to Denver on February 2nd to go wath the Jayhawks take on the Buffaloes.  Can you give me any prediction on what the weather pattern will be around this time? Thanks

there's a mix here in downtown KC!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks a lot Scott and everyone.

its 26 here...but no precip at all....

Feb 2nd?....bad idea....lol

just kidding...but I heard somethings going to be around...MAYBE then.....

i agree Brent, they shouldnt have issued the WWA

 I know this is a weather blog, just had to ask though, anyone have a SUPER BOWL PREDICITON????????????

NEW ENGLAND WILL WIN, unfortunately. There's now way the NYGs can beat the NEPs.

Light mist in Olathe, Car Windows have a glaze on them. By way Gary, Thanks for showing and rating my map!! (No, I'm not going to get a big head about this!)

when is it going to start here Gary?

-------------

Brent,

It only lasted 20 minutes here.  So, if you aren't watching it carefully it will end before you even know it.

Gary

Your right Gary, It look like it's moving along quickly on Live ESP! Is this the only band or should we expcect more?

------------

That is all there is.  I am not surprised at all.  It's over.

Gary

wow.......p-a-t-h-e-t-i-c!!!!!

nothing here......lol

Gary,

What do you look at in the model to determine Cloud cover? Like which days will be Partly Cloudy,etc?

gojayhawks,

As far as the 2nd goes, here are a few takes.

1.  Per Gary's 45 day forecast - here is what you can expect for the days of Jan 25- Feb. 20th - "The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th."

2.  If you look at the recent trends in the GFS, it shows leading up to that day that there may be some storminess somewhere in the SW to lower Plains.  This far out of the GFS can be viewed with accuracy of a grain of salt.

3.  If you subscribe to any of the analysis that I provide - I expect within a day of the 2nd of February to be a snow storm in the midwest.  This is based off of analysis in surface trending using the same cycle as what the LRC uses this year.

Here are the matching dates back through the cycle.  You can make your own opinions based on this.

Dec 10-11 - 1.64 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
October 17-18 - 2.04 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
August 24th - .74 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior

If you are to go with this trend, then I would think it is very likely for a storm to be nearby or affecting the Kansas City area on Feb. 2nd.

But then again, that is just my take.  For the most accurate forecast, stick to the KSHB weather team as the date draws nearer.  In the meantime - for the best official forecast in that time perod, go off of what Gary has in his 45 day forcast for that date.

;-)

Brent, this all along has been advertised as a nothing storm.  You should not have even wasted any energy on this one.

"Ice and snow moving into the metro area causing dangerous conditions"

I often find it amusing to hear teaser lines like the above from competitor stations.  

It seems as though there should be a way to stop this nonsense..I guess the best way is not to watch it at all.
-----------------

But, Scott, not only are they teasing it, they think it is really bad out there. And, you wonder why I have this lifelong battle to change the image of the meteorologist.  It will take forever.

Gary

"Scott said:
Brent, this all along has been advertised as a nothing storm.  You should not have even wasted any energy on this one."

I know...

One of the other stations said the Pacific Flow will begin to dominate the pattern and although we will have some cool downs, it won't be as cold as this past week and we will have warm air through early February.  

------------------

Yeah, I heard this was stated a couple of weeks ago.  Let's try not to bash others in this blog!  This isn't really bashing, but it could lead to bad things. So, everyone, let's look forward to the next Arctic front.

Gary

heavysnow - I believe I have heard that all winter.  Strike that..winter was over in mid December.  LOL

Pacific flow this, pacific flow that.  Same message, same missed forecasts.  Blah.  Believe it if you want, but I would stick here for the most accurate forecasts.  

Gary - sad but true.  I guess I better stock up on my helmets for the Spring.

LOL

lol over since mid december that's really funny what are they smoking...

 We are all Lucky to have the best weather team to relie on, this station has the most passion for weather, Heck Gary does radio in the early morning, blog's on his days off, keep you informed.  People are catching on

I hope there is storm systems during the weekend!! The Lower the temps, the less melting.

Gary what is your take on this:

Scott said:
gojayhawks,

As far as the 2nd goes, here are a few takes.

1.  Per Gary's 45 day forecast - here is what you can expect for the days of Jan 25- Feb. 20th - "The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th."

2.  If you look at the recent trends in the GFS, it shows leading up to that day that there may be some storminess somewhere in the SW to lower Plains.  This far out of the GFS can be viewed with accuracy of a grain of salt.

3.  If you subscribe to any of the analysis that I provide - I expect within a day of the 2nd of February to be a snow storm in the midwest.  This is based off of analysis in surface trending using the same cycle as what the LRC uses this year.

Here are the matching dates back through the cycle.  You can make your own opinions based on this.

Dec 10-11 - 1.64 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
October 17-18 - 2.04 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
August 24th - .74 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior

If you are to go with this trend, then I would think it is very likely for a storm to be nearby or affecting the Kansas City area on Feb. 2nd.

But then again, that is just my take.  For the most accurate forecast, stick to the KSHB weather team as the date draws nearer.  In the meantime - for the best official forecast in that time perod, go off of what Gary has in his 45 day forcast for that date.

Heavy Snow I think dryslot is a very nice name.  Chiefs Fan I gotta go Pats by 10 I can not believe they will go unbeaten I did not think that could ever happen in the NFL today....Gary I gotta give you props sir.I asked Friday what was going to happen over MLK day as far as ice/snow you nailed it!! You said very little was going to happen.Great Call!!  

----------------

Thank you for noticing.  We have been on a roll with our forecast since we really had a handle on this years LRC in early December.  I am sure something will go wrong someday, but hopefully not for a long time.

Gary

40s can't get here soon enough.  Neither can the 70's for that matter...

These Patriots are still not better than my 85-86 Chicago Bears!!


I wasn't trying to start something with Mr. Pacific Flow, maybe a little.  


Its just too easy, sorry.  

I heard Gary mention at the end of the news cast that the new data was ruining the warm up.......

------------------

The warm up is still there, but there are just some fly's in the ointment.

Gary

I think it will warm up some.  Maybe not as warm as first thought, but still above normal.  Just me.

------------------

Scott,

I love that term, "just me".  Yeah, it is just you.....LOL

Gary

There are flurries outside, very light... Brent if you are up you may want to get a glimpse... bitter outside though!

Got pretty slick here in Marceline, MO...We had a couple light sleet showers which coated everything...It melted on the streets with high traffic, but as soon as the sun went down the water froze, and there is now many slick spots...It is quite windy outside here...Everytime the wind gusts, the widows shake!!

We are having a VERY LIGHT snow right now in St. Joe, actually it is coming down decently, enough to reduce visibility a bit, but the moisture content has to be really low, a lot of fluff, but it is coming down decently in decent sized flakes.   So we got something out of this other than freezing drizzle after all;)

17  below zero wind-chill recorded this morning at 04:22 this morning.

Ray
East Lawrence

Gary:

Good Fridgid moon lit morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 8 degrees here in SW Lawrence under clear skies-a bit of a breeze still blowing so it will get your attention out there-bundle up!!!

Interesting little tidbit: since last Wednesday at 4:00 P.M. I have been above freezing a whole 9 hours and considering how cold the next 48 hours look to be, I am going to go almost 8 days with only 9 hours above freezing-that to me is an impressive stretch of cold!!!! I know I am kind of wierd about this, but I love it!!

Back to the class room today so unforunately my hobby will have to take a back seat (ok-prob. not the back seat-maybe the passanger seat LOL) but I think the next 8-10 days are going to be fascinating to watch unfold beginning of course with the Arctic Front Part III tomorrow. Based on the 12Z, 18Z, and 0Z runs yesterday, I think the models are beginning to catch onto the pattern but will flip back and forth several times over the next 4-5 days. Ok, I mentioned this in the email yesterday but will kind of repeat what I said and hope that is ok:  I am going to go out on another limb here and throw out what I think I should be looking for-crack/break/ahhhhh!!!

1. The ridge developing over the Rockies this weekend in some fashion-correspopnds to the overall set up of 12-3

2. The front/clipper type system that the modles have latched onto for around next Tuesday corresponds to the set up of around 12-5

3. Watching for the southern branch to get active around next weekend (1-31) which would be similar to 12-8-11

In my very humble opinion, we are in the process of watching 12-2-11 unfold and cycle back through. It may not match exactly up to 54 days but to me there has always been a 2-3 day window on either side. The models are slowly beginning to pick up on the over all ideas of this set up. Of course, it will not come through this time exactly like it did in December just like December was not the same as October. However, it is nice to know that the massive storm on the 0Z GFS last night was not fantasy-the track/precip is fanatsy for sure but the storm itself in some fashion should be there. By the same token, the cold front early next week is not fantasy either and my bet it that it will be stronger than models prog right now just as it was on 12-5. Ok, I have gone way beyond my limits here but I hope this makes a little sense!!!

Have a great day-yesterday for sure was not a major precip. maker but man watching the temps. in Kansas was just fascinating!! As always thanks for reading and providing such a great place to learn about weather-all of your feed back and the information you provide is so appreciated!!! I'll say it again, the Weather Team is Tight!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

--------------

Bill,

I am in the middle of writing an extensive entry today.  Have a great day!  Yes, the models are all trending into the stormy part of the pattern.

Gary