NBC Action Communities

I just switched from another weather blog to this one after visiting for several days.  Might I say, this blog is the most informative, active, superb, I can not come up with enough words.  Gary your really involved in your blog and I really enjoy reading it and all the others comments.  Keep UP the GREAT work.....Have a blessed day and try to keep WARM everyone.

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Thank you so much, and welcome to the NBC Action Weather Blog!  We will continue to keep you updated every day.  Did you also make the switch to NBC Action News?

Gary

Gary:

Excellent Blog this morning-just outstanding!! As always, thanks for sharing such pertinent and fascianting information!!

Well, students are now entering the class rooms-I wonder if I should take them outside today to simulate Napoleon and Hitelr's invasion of Russia!!! LOL

Have a great day-this next few weeks are going to be fascinating/exciting to follow-the stroms will be there let's just hope it all comes together in the correct fashion for one or two of them!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Gary--There is no doubt in my mind that the LRC works in forecasting.  You all will work hard this year and continue to provide excellence in forecasting. So what I am hearing you say--we are getting back in the wetter pattern but the intensity of the storms this time around may be a factor?  Also, I take it the Artic has drained itself for the time being?  We may end up having more cold rains but the snow totals you were discussing in your 45 day forecast earlier may not be quite as high?  I just hope we don't get anymore ice storms.  Do you see something in this year's pattern that might cause a variation in the intensity of each wet pattern even though the cycle revolves around that 54-57 day cycle?   A national meteorologist already is predicting Feb-April as above normal temps.  He said it all depends on the weakening of the La Nina.  They just won't give up.   Thanks, Michael

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Michael,

Those same forecasts were calling for a warm and dry December and January. They are using the same reasons for this new extended forecast.  I stand by the LRC and not La Nina.  Our first impression of the pattern was for it to be warmer as well, but since early December we have gone for the cold and there is still no sign of it ending. We will have ups and downs, but the Arctic air will be sitting across Canada ready to tap in any one of these stormy set ups.

And, the series of storm systems may still end up stronger and snowier this time.  I am just saying I am uncertain of their strength.  I would still think they could be stronger and a bit slower.  This could place us in favorable position for a big snow or two?  Hopefully no ice set ups, but also some rain.

Gary

Great blog Gary.

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Brent,

Thanks, we will be testing your patience and understanding during the next few weeks.  We are hoping you get a good snowstorm.  But, remember we can't control what happens.

Gary

"But, remember we can't control what happens."

Quite so...lol

Weather Team,

Without going into specifics and all that, how do these winter storms play out for the spring?  I like when thunder and lightening are going on, though I wish no one a tornado and its destruction.  According to the LRC, and by no means am I a weather expert, would you not say that this spring will be more active than the past few years?  

Thanks for your time,
Keri

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Keri,

I haven't really analyzed the spring set ups yet.  I am not going to make any assumptions at this time.  We will look into this in a few weeks.

Gary

Good morning, Gary!  I am a first-time poster, long-time blog follower and NBC Action News viewer.  I have a question about this year's LRC and how it might impact your research.  It would appear to me that the frequency and pattern of this year's storms, with so many ocurring at the same intervals, would bolster your evidence-gathering and analysis of the LRC overall.  Do you and the weather team see this as a watershed year, and are you planning any special analysis or research above what you normally undertake to study this year's pattern?  Thanks for your dedication and passion to understanding weather--it is fascinating  stuff!  

I am also curious about how the spring will shape up strom wise.  I'm mostly intersted in March.  Will it be cold and snowy or warmer with rain?  As much as I love the snow, I hope Easter weekend will be warmer.  My baby is due that weekend and I would much rather have to go to the hospital in rain than in snow or ice.  Thanks for the great forecasts, Gary.

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We feel that between March 5th and April 5th, this part of the pattern we are in now and going into next will repeat again.

Gary

"December 22nd:  Major winter storm.  Heavy sleet, rain, snow.....7 inches in St. Joseph"

... add 54 days = February 14th, Valentines Day!  Will 2/14/08 be known as the Valentines Day storm?

Something to keep an eye out for!  Take care,
Tim

Interesting:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220

This Arcticle is by RICHARD LINDZEN .

"In 2003, when the draft of the U.S. National Climate Plan urged a high priority for improving our knowledge of climate sensitivity, the National Research Council instead urged support to look at the impacts of the warming--not whether it would actually happen."


Sorry Gary, But I just had to bring this stuff up. For some reason, when I find anything that has to do w/this or weather, I just have to bring it up.

Official snow total so far this winter is:

8.2 inches.

Harrisonville..'
in 7 different storms.

I have it all recorded....almost all of the 7 storms were around an inch...some were more...some were less......theres was one with 2 inches....

anyway,....thats the season total here...

I would have liked it better if it had all fallen at once...you can't do much with an inch of snow....

Brent

We need some weather excitement down in the Lee's Summit/Pleasant Hill areas!
These 1", 2", 3" snow falls are driving me crazy! We need a good 6-8 iches at one time before, at least to me, it seems winter has arrived!

"Tim in West Shawnee said:
"December 22nd:  Major winter storm.  Heavy sleet, rain, snow.....7 inches in St. Joseph"

... add 54 days = February 14th, Valentines Day!  Will 2/14/08 be known as the Valentines Day storm?

Something to keep an eye out for!  Take care,
Tim"


YES!  Gary what are your thoughts on this?....

Brent

I'm still confused on why Monday's was only on a 52 cycle, but the remaining storms are on a 54 day cycle?  Also, is it safe to say that once the first big storms hit's somewhere, that the next 3 will be 7 days from one another like last time?  Basically, I'm confused about why there's no storm this weekend, when I thought there would be one a few weeks ago.

-----------------------

We are not saying that the storms are on a 52 day or a 54 day cycle.  We just are confident that it is roughly a 54 day cycle give or take a few days either way.  The cycle, in past years is not always perfect, but it has been shown to be close.  It could be 51 days, or it could be 57 days.  The biggest features in the pattern are the easiest to see, like this cold high amplitude feature that helped us predict this Arctic out break weeks ahead of time.

And, by the way, suddenly there are two storms this weekend.  One on Friday, and another on Sunday. They didn't show up yesterday, but there they are today.  The forecast is already changing fast.

Gary

54 days is how it averages out....sometimes they will be 52 days sometimes maybe 56 days

Gary..

Wow!!  One day after the GFS showed very little for the next 15 days, it now looks like things go crazy!  I assume this goes right along with the LRC.  Did you feel yesterday that the model would trend the way it has?  If so, what was your confidence level?  Pretty remarkable stuff.

Thanks,

Matt.

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Matt,

Exactly!  It is difficult, but the LRC (as we have learned so much more in the past few years) works better than the models.  It is just that we love to see it on the models, and now it is showing up, which is no surprise, but difficult to be patient with.

The latest GFS has so many storm systems it is a bit too ridiculous.  It could be a fun month ahead.

Gary

"I am not going to make any assumptions at this time..."

Fair enough.  

Keri

Gary and Matt I'm completely with you on the GFS going a little crazy.  It down right looks mean (but exciting) from about Jan 31 all the way through Feb 7 right now with maybe about a 1 day break in the middle.

------------------

It will be difficult for this GFS run to verify, but the fact that it is showing the LRC at all is fascinating. 

Gary

I do not mean to sound like a broken record.  But will it get it as warm as the forecasts?  While we do not have the snow on the ground you had in December in St Joseph we still have to two and half inches eccept on 45° angle bearing hills.  There will be clouds lingering later on in the week and the new models do trend to the LRC.  One of the things of that allowed it to snow here more in December was snowpack because we never warmed the surface level as much.

Since October almost every long range model has been forecasting temperatures on the high side 3-6 days out, I  do not know why that pattern should change now.  Keep in mind to support snow on Friday and Sunday that it only needs to be 5-7 degrees colder than the current longrange outlook. I'm looking forward to something around ground hog day as well.  

The last run through the cycle,at first glance without getting specific gives us the opportunity of the white St Patrick Day or Easter on 23 March.    

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Let's keep tracking this!

Gary        

I am excited!  WOO HOO If its gonna be this cold Lets see some excitement with the weather HUH?

Hey stjoeattorney, watch your language! :)

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I fixed it, that was just a typo.

Gary

Who's Richard Lindzen?

Well, once again, all one has to do is look at the source of this opinion piece - the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal..!

What else do they say?

Anything pro corporate and right wing.. the opinion page of the WSJ speaks for the most rapacious right wing elements of big business.  

Has Rupert Murdoch purchased it yet?  Hard to imagine the WSJ becoming more pro big business and right wing unless less credible in the scientific world unless Murdoch makes a tabloid out of it and starts talking about invading Martians.

--------------------------

Amazing isn't it.  Now, let's keep the other blog out of this one.

Gary

Brett,
yup, I just saw a Big Penguin just outside my house!!

ummm siraluce I don't think the Wall Street Journal has anything to do with the weather?

siraluce,
Richard Lindzen is a physicist and professor of meteorology at M.I.T.  (I just Googled him)

Thanks for clarification about the 54 days as the median and I see what you're saying about the timing being +/- a few days.

Yeah that GFS looks freaky, with all the storms showing up.  Lots and lots of blue near the area.  Not sure about anyone else, but it's nice to see a color other than green on those models.  I hate seeing that green crap.

It was near Valentines day last year that we got a good storm.  I still have not found anywhere to look at past weather statistics.  I recall that storm from a year ago being an LRC prediction.  Outside of finding the matching similarities in these weather patterns, what is the cause of such a specific pattern.  Why every 54 days?  I see it works, I just wonder why.  

-------------------

This year is 54 days.  We noticed the 54 days when we were able to see that the weather pattern in October was repeating in December.  From early December on we have seen it very close to 54 days.  Last year it was around 45 days.  Every year is unique, and when we figure it out our forecasts can be quite accurate in the long term, as we have been showing, but it also helps tremendously in the short range.  (Scott, you don't have to go into how you think it started in August or September because I don't see it at this point, LOL)

Gary

siraluce said:

"Anything pro corporate and right wing.. the opinion page of the WSJ speaks for the most rapacious right wing elements of big business. "

big business is cashing in on the global warming mantra.

hmmmm... I think big business will profit more  on this  "man made global warming"  movement. "green" SELLS. People buy into it, they think that if they pay more for "green" products / services they are helping the planet etc etc.

The new energy bill requires us to use compact fluorescent bulbs by 2012.... I wonder who is going to be making money on that deal.

I believe we need to take care of this planet we are on, but to think that by saving a few tanks a gas a year can effect temps/ weather patterns to me is insane.  don't we exhale c02? and tree's consume c02?

The Sun is the most powerful factor in the effects of the temperature, changing the angle of the earth a few degrees effects the daylight,intensity of the rays in turn the temperature.

just a few weather/climate things to think about...

Good Afternoon Gary

Will be watching the weather for the weekend.   I am having an NHL ALL STAR GAME party on Sunday starting at 4 pm.   Hey all you weather fans, if you like Hiockey and Bowling, come on down to Aaron's Family Fun Center in Belton this Sunday.   My wife Melissa and I are hosting the party in the "DEN" at the Bowling Center,   If you are interested, send me an email at  whale@kc.rr.com with subject line of NHL All Star Game..   Thanks

So how are we looking Gary??

so far on the 12 GFS i like day 10, 12-13 and 15-16.. but thats to far out to happen.... but with the active pattern starting back up..... who knows!

dougbce,

Richard Lindzen is a paid consultant to big oil and coal companies, and he was paid by Western Fuels to testify before a Senate committe on global warming, so, that is how the Wall Street Journal becomes involved with weather.

yep!  thanks Rick!

"The latest GFS has so many storm systems it is a bit too ridiculous.  It could be a fun month ahead.

Gary"

Hooray!

Where do I go to see the GFS?

I knew that you would be right, Gary!  The active part of the pattern would begin around the time you said it would.  I realize that these are not big storms but they will be part of the active pattern. :)  Good call! :)

Kristi

[[[bites his tongue]]]

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

here you go kane

Here's my initial impression of Friday's system:

http://photos-c.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sctm/v172/73/61/508280943/n508280943_838266_2966.jpg

Thanks dougbce. Not sure what I am looking at but it looks exciting lol.

if you stick around here for very long you will know.  I think Gary is guilty of creating the biggest bunch of weather geeks in one city.

weather team, it seems to me that the last two years we get a real cold snap and just about nothing happens. last year right after our january cold snap we got around 2 inches of rain and areas north and west got hammered. it seems like we get our best chances of snow when the weather is less arctic, and warmer with the ups and downs. praying for more snow. chris

Scott,
You are right too!  

Why are you biting your tongue??

Kristi

Gary and team, I would just like to say how I really like the way you have been updating the daily forecast on your main page.  Instead of doing the 8am, 12pm, 5pm - I like how you have been updating it to reflect 7am, 10am, 12pm and 12pm, 3pm, 7pm.  It helps me to better plan my day!  Keep up the great work!!!

Excellent blog Gary!  Very informative concerning the LRC.

It definitely is interesting to see how the GFS has trended towards a different solution over the last several days.  After looking at it the previous days, everything looked calm...but definitely not now.

However, I refuse to get my hopes up, until you or Scott tell me to get my hopes up!

Fred

Stormdog thinks we will see increasing darkness during this evening, with passing stars from time to time, followed by increasing lightness towards dawn - how about that for a guaranteed forecast - really, the 41 team does a great job, but to try to make them pin things down to an exact is like trying to count the H2O molecules in the ocean!  Keep going 41 team - Dog is with you.  Arf, Arf.

On Sunday, the end of the month looked real interesting, and it was consistent from other GFS runs, so even that far out, I wonder.

Dog

Gary,
I am moving on Feb 1st. Can you tell me what you think the weather will be like.
Thanks  

Two things;
I am an avid golfer but unable to locate a map that shows the snow cover, Brett had one a few weeks ago and I utatlized it to go beyond the snow cover to golf. Do you/would you provide this service?
Gary I have tried you ch 249 (Comcast) 24 hr forecast and found it less than expected. The info on the left has no identification and I seem unable to guess what it means other than occasionally it seems to be current conditions. The forecast portion last Sunday 1/20 had either a SAT thru Wed or a Tue thru Sat the common days didn't match?

every time a big storm comes is seems like a warm front pushes up threw where i live until the storms gone, then the temp drops enough for it to snow

Satellite shows snow cover... as long as you know where the clouds are =)

I hope we get a lot more snow this winter...Keep up the good work!!! :)

gary-

you have mail!

...i may be right on this one...

----------------

Murph,

I didn't get it at work yet?  Remember it is Lezak@nbcactionnews.com

Gary

Ugg.........more 40's less snow.....

on the 7 day.

Gary,
Do you think the northern parts of your viewing area will be hit with more snow and the south with mostly rain again in this up coming stormy part of the LRC or do you thing the snow will shift more south?

------------------

We won't know until one of the storm systems approaches.  So, we have to wait.

Gary

Wow, what a winter Gary, and the ride is about to pick up again, btw, congrats on your stats, you are still whoopin' them, talk about a consistent trend;)

I thought today was supposed to be arctic?....

its 26 here....

but then again we are in a different hemisphere.....down here in Harrisonville.....

FutureNursLori - is your mom Linda?  If it is, she said you need to be studying, not blogging!  :)  Do you really understand all this stuff?  I'm impressed!

Kristi - I likely would have commented on my thoughts in years past, but being a bit older and wiser, I am going to hold my thoughts for the time being.  Not being perfect, I probably should not have even posted what I did by bringing attention to it.  Should I feel further compelled to speak my thoughts, I will do so elsewhere as not to cause a disruption.  I will give it a day or two, and if it still is bugging me..then I will act then.

That said, I think this is a good blog entry.  Those eager to see the progress of how the LRC is evolving and used within the forecasts have a great deal of food for thought.

Gary,
    I am thoroughly impressed with your accuracy, let alone all of the time and effort you put into your forecasts.  I just have to know ONE thing.........is there any chance for a good (4 or more inches) snow the rest of this winter in Southern O.P.?  My kids are missing the really good snowfalls we had in MN.  Just had to ask.  Thanks for ALL of your hard work- you guys are fantastic!!

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I will be shocked if you don't have at least 6 to 8 more inches of snow, and possibly more than this over the next two months.

Gary

gary,

i sent it to a rr account.  i will send it to ACTIONNEWS

murph

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Murph,

I did get it!  I will respond soon, but I am on the air in just a few minutes.

Gary

What the...   okay, this is new, on the web site http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm   it is saying that I am Forbidden from the loops!!!!   this is one of the web sites Jeremy had gotten me hooked on, anyone else having trouble with this site?

Billboards!! Use those and you will get more viewers. I didn't read all the comments but just thought I would say it. Many people will get confused and think that the #1 station pays weatherate to have them be most accurate. Thats NOT true. Gary even said that. Now, if we could get WX plus on Dish, I could say that I watch it. But I can't. As always, keep up the FANTASTIC work, and don't let us down! Most Accurate is the teams middle name!

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Thanks Alden! 

Gary

Forgot to mention, judging by the LRC, the next two months will be the most active of the winter with more storms?

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Alden,

It will be, especially between the end of the month and February 20th.

Gary

The cold is harsh....but the clear skies..aren't!.....?...

we still have a few days till the 25th...lol

"I will be shocked if you don't have at least 6 to 8 more inches of snow, and possibly more than this over the next two months."

well I hope you aren't shocked then......

but what about those of us in the southern hemisphere....ie: Harrisonville....lol....

As a scientist (geologist), I would love to see a scientific, unemotional discussion on this blog or another blog concerning climate change and whether man's activities are contributing to it.  However, this is not practical, as the bloggers' passions and politics often seem to override their rational, scientific thought processes.  It's unfortunate, but it's human nature.  Whatever position people hold, two facts are indisputable.  One, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1800's.  Two, average surface temperatures on the earth have gradually increased over the past century.  Whether humans are the cause or not, the overall climate is warming (not that you'd think about it in KC today, but this arctic outbreak is really quite normal for this time of year and is actually not that severe).  People in Alaska and other Arctic areas are seeing physical manifestations of climate change in the form of retreating glaciers, melting permafrost, and the shrinking north polar ice cap.  These are measurable, quantitative observations, not political grandstanding.  My personal opinion is that humans are at least a contributor to the conditions creating climate change, but I don't know that they are the sole cause.  There are also natural variations in climate over time caused by a variety of complicated factors.  And now, as Forrest Gump said, "That's all I have to say about that."

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I am really about 100% with your thoughts.  We have brought it up in the blog before, and it does get ridiculously political and religious.  I would love to just talk scientifically about it.

Gary

Gary, would those 6-8" be in one or two storms, or 6-8 individual storms? Just a no-garuntee question.

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I am still hoping for more than this, and I really feel like there is a very good chance of a lot more. I was being conservative.  Let's see how these storms produce next month.

Gary

Okay it is now working for me again;)  That early Feb. storm is hanging in there!!!

If we got only 6 to 8 more inches at my house the rest of winter I wouldn't be happy

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Then, we will work on getting you more.

Gary

The weekend looks great, wash that car everybody! When's our next chance of highs in the 50's?

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There is a chance it could jump into the 50s during this next week.  If there is a trend in that direction then we will let you know tomorrow.

Gary

Well, one station says next monday.......50's.........

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They could be right!  I am waiting for some more evidence.  It is typical to warm up in between two cold outbreaks.

Gary

Gary, excellent blog. I just became a member of this blog about 1 month ago and it is awsome. The information you share is very accurate and informative. This winter here up north has been a pretty fun one. In Parkville we have 13.7 inches for the year. I'm really excited about this new weather pattern, I hope we get a few huge snowstorms out of this new pattern. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks.

Tyler

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Tyler,

Welcome to the blog!  And, please keep us updated on Parkville's total after our next few snow chances.

Gary

"heavysnow said:
If we got only 6 to 8 more inches at my house the rest of winter I wouldn't be happy"

I would! we haven't barely gotten 8 inches total this season!

-------------

Brent,

Tulsa and Oklahoma City only average 8 inches of snow a year. 

Gary

 Hello Gary, How many chances do you see for next week to finish out the month?

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There are a couple of chances for mostly rain, but the best snow chances come during the first half of February.

Gary

Updated my blog:
http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

Gary,

How can you tell on the models when there will be cloud cover? Besides there being a storm system nearby and the model predicting precip. How can you tell if a day will be partly cloudy or 100% Sunshine?

How about another map test tomorrow?

"   heavysnow said:
If we got only 6 to 8 more inches at my house the rest of winter I wouldn't be happy

--------------------

Then, we will work on getting you more.

Gary"



I don't get this kind of treatment!..LOL

just kidding.....

Gary what is your take on this:

Scott said:
gojayhawks,

As far as the 2nd goes, here are a few takes.

1.  Per Gary's 45 day forecast - here is what you can expect for the days of Jan 25- Feb. 20th - "The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th."

2.  If you look at the recent trends in the GFS, it shows leading up to that day that there may be some storminess somewhere in the SW to lower Plains.  This far out of the GFS can be viewed with accuracy of a grain of salt.

3.  If you subscribe to any of the analysis that I provide - I expect within a day of the 2nd of February to be a snow storm in the midwest.  This is based off of analysis in surface trending using the same cycle as what the LRC uses this year.

Here are the matching dates back through the cycle.  You can make your own opinions based on this.

Dec 10-11 - 1.64 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
October 17-18 - 2.04 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior
August 24th - .74 inches of precipitation - 54 days prior

If you are to go with this trend, then I would think it is very likely for a storm to be nearby or affecting the Kansas City area on Feb. 2nd.

But then again, that is just my take.  For the most accurate forecast, stick to the KSHB weather team as the date draws nearer.  In the meantime - for the best official forecast in that time perod, go off of what Gary has in his 45 day forcast for that date.
January 21, 2008 10:45 PM

--------------------

I pretty much agree with Scott's statements.  The GFS can't be counted on as much as the LRC, has shown this year to be counted upon.  But, the GFS is now lining up better with what we expect.  As stated, I am expecting a series of storm systems to begin sometime next week.  And, one of those should fall around February 2nd.  And, whether Scott believes it or not, he is using the LRC theory for his surface based forecasts, at least this is what I believe.

Gary

Well congratulations once again NBC action weather team.  You guys are doing really a good job with forecasting the winter season.  How about some snow down here for a change?  At this point I will be greatfull if we even get a snowfall over 3 inches at this rate so far.  LOL :P how about something down here for a change.  

-----------------------

John,

Thanks for coming into the blog!  Maybe you will get a chance to see some snow next month.

And, to MamatsG and others, sometimes we get away from the blog and we don't have time to respond, and your comment can get lost until much later in the day.  I just read your comment and you make some good points on the LRC.  And, yes, this could a  "watershed" year, as you call it. But, there are many other goals we have that will take more than this one year. Using the LRC, and experiencing our own forecasts verifying will be more evidence, but it still doesn't prove that the LRC exists, which we obviously believe it does.

Gary

 

Gary,
Will you leave us with a new blog tonight after your 10:00 cast?

“And, whether Scott believes it or not, he is using the LRC theory for his surface based forecasts, at least this is what I believe.”

I guess I will take one last stand on this and let it be.  I am beyond blue in the face with this.  I certainly follow a cycle concept in my analysis.  I use actual surface observations from KCI and trend similar activities within a given cycle.  This year, it is the same as the LRC at 54 days.  I will even go so far as to say where the LRC can show upper air trends, likely the surface is behaving similarly, so it appears it is directly related to the LRC.  That said, I can tell you what my analysis is that the LRC is not.

1. I do not believe that the cycle is established in October or November.  I have shown in my analysis that the trends that I believe the cycle to go back into August and September.  The LRC states that the cycle starts in October/November.
2. I do not use any maps in my analysis.  I do not even look at the upper levels.  The LRC is most often displayed or otherwise communicated by comparisons at the 500mb level.  While I have tried at times to map surface trends to the upper levels, it is done as an exercise to further strengthen the LRC claim, but certainly not as a tool used based on surface trending

I will leave it to each individual to determine how this is the same or different from the LRC.  It does share two things in common with the LRC.

Both METHODS use the same concept of a cyclical pattern.  I emphasize methods because the concept of a pattern or cycle in the atmosphere is very common.  It is the premise of teleconnections and oscillations.  It is the base of most atmospheric concepts.  Hadley cells, carbon cycles etc.  

Cycles being common, the LRC extends this concept into a much more defined theory within Gary’s LRC.  It involves when the cycle starts, ends, and where the longwaves are established.  This is a method in analyzing a cycle.  My method is done differently as stated above.

Both tied to the same belief in a cycle, but done very differently in application.  

I do give Gary and team huge kudos.  It was Gary that opened my eyes to this possibility of a cycle.  It was taking his theory and playing with it that led me to my method of analysis.  For those that have been participating in the blog for a long time, you saw me start with my method last year.  It is the ongoing dialogue, push/pull of ideas and ultimately too many hours of research that has brought me to this way of looking at things.  Additionally, while learning the LRC, I struggled with the map comparisons.  Likely this was due to my lack of technological understanding.  I decided to take the cycle approach and bring it to the surface where I am more comfortable.  I understand when things happen or they don’t.  I can much easier take this data and work with it.  But – that is my personal preference, and what drove me to the surface analysis.  

While I strongly support the LRC itself, I do struggle with some of its principles of when it starts and ends based on my research.

Gary does not agree with my findings, and that is ok.  Just as others agree or disagree with the LRC.  It is all a learning process.  I think which ever approach you follow, both seem to be working very well.

All this said, I surmise many come to this blog for Gary and team’s analysis and their accuracy.  And if the currency being used is the LRC, then let that be the focus here.  It was my pursuit of other extensions and applications of a cycle theory that led me to start my own blog where I could pursue discussion and learning without taking away from the great tool of the LRC.  Ongoing, I will keep all of my analysis in my blog as not to muddy the water any further or distracting from the LRC.

I will still participate here, but as it relates to my method of forecasting…I will leave that discussion elsewhere.  I think this will help clear up any confusion and keep the focus directed to the method of the LRC as described in this blog.

This response is likely long overdo, but I wanted to think it out clearly and not just respond with a half thought out and emotional retort.

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Scott,

Long winded!  And, you are describing an aspect of the LRC, period!  The surface is directly related to the upper levels.  I know we have discussed this.  And, more importantly, you say you have a 54 day cycle.  And, last year you had a 45 day cycle....hmmmmmmmmm, that was last year's LRC.  Don't you see?

And, you say the cycle began in August.  I showed you how this could not be the case.  If it is the case, then next year you will know the cycle before me.  And, then this is where you can stop turning blue.  Maybe you should be in the Blue Man Group!

Now, to the weather.  WOW, do you realize that Friday's set up is actually similar to December 6th, our first snow?  But, you wouldn't know since you don't need a map.

Gary

Gary-

I heard what you said about OU being number 1 that year... out here in Lawrence, KU is ALWAYS number one! lol!

Brian

-----------------

Brian,

That was one of my worst sports days ever.  The Sooners had to play KU at Kemper for the National Championship.  That was not fair.

Gary

I won't continue this here beyond this final thought, Gary.  I am somewhat suprised with the tone of your response, but that is on you.

Determining a cycle duration is not unique to the LRC.  In fact, if go back to the NWA abstracts of the conference you attended earlier this year, you will find another exhibit also describing a cycle in this crazy atmosphere.

So to that, because I for one year match what you found, that is plausible.  In addition, last year...I did not have a 45 day cycle.  In fact if you go back and view last year's blogs, you will find I started with a 23 day cycle [oddly half of what you found later in the year].  If you remember, that was the SMC description.  Because of my lack of understanding at that time, I abandoned it for that year as I needed to learn more.

The fact that the surface is directly related to the upper levels is certainly not exclusive or even really related to the LRC.  That is just basics in atmospheric science, so to use this tie exclusively to validate how my method is the LRC is short sided.

"If it is the case, then next year you will know the cycle before me."

Do you really want me to go there?

I will leave this alone, and I will not further this banter, but thought since I was called out - it was fair game to defend my beliefs.

I do believe you have done this on occasion as well.

;-)

I have to tell you that it is quite entertaining watching Scott and Gary go at it.  Not only can we learn a great deal about the weather but we can also be entertained at the same time.  Keep up the good work guys.

Gary said to Scott:
hmmmmmmmmm, that was last year's LRC.  Don't you see?

And, you say the cycle began in August.  I showed you how this could not be the case.  If it is the case, then next year you will know the cycle before me.  And, then this is where you can stop turning blue.  Maybe you should be in the Blue Man Group!

Now, to the weather.  WOW, do you realize that Friday's set up is actually similar to December 6th, our first snow?  But, you wouldn't know since you don't need a map.
Gary

Gary and Scott,
As an avid NBC viewer and new blogger it seems to me that these "comeuppance" blogs between the 2 of you should maybe be done in a more personal venue?..such as your personal email addresses?Since there seems to be an ongoing disagreement between you. It is almost embarrassing to read these...like we're watching a quarrel between 2 people. (Guess I could just NOT read them)

But, you are the professional Gary. And it does seem that you spend an inordinate amount of time "one-upping" Scott to the point of not having time to respond to other bloggers questions. And we know it takes so much of your time just to read through all of them...much less be able to respond.

But that last paragraph to Scott that started with "Now to the weather" seemed on the verge of vindictive. I think you are a much better person than that, Gary.

But, let's do...Get on with the matter at hand.... the weather ! That's where our passion lies and that's what we're all here for.
Truce?

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I agree and disagree.  I respond to as many comments as possible.  And, Scott and I are taking it out of the blog.

Gary

It has been a long day with finally a break for Gary to go over the LRC and how the upcoming models are lining up.   We all wanted to be updated and looked at the long range maps the last few days and were left scratching our heads.   Then todays model runs come out and it looks wild and crazy.      I think Gary worked overtime on the blog today, and as one that would know, staring at a screen 1/2 the day can drive you off the edge.     He answered about 70% of the posts today and Im sure it was just a long day.   We have all seen him get a bit upset on this blog, which makes him seem even more passionate for his beliefs... though he remains 100% professional on the air.  

I personally like reading everybodys thoughts and come to know what to expect from that unique personality.   You really feel a bit closer to those that are regular bloggers, esp when the weather is active and we are sharing info and nowcasting together.

Have a great week and stay warm

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Thanks, and I should take some of that "heat" out of the blog.  I expect it from you, so I must do the same.

Gary

um... does anyone know where the spotter meeting is on the 14th of Feb.? i ask b/c north cross united methodist isnt in liberty...its about 8 miles away, and they listed Shepherds Center of the Northland in with the city....


Feb.14

CITY-
Shepherds Center of the Northland, Liberty, MO  (Clay County)

TIME-
10:00am CST

LOCATION-
North Cross United Methodist Church 1321 NE Vivion Rd. Kansas City, MO 64118

Scott,
I have always thought that you have added a lot to the discussions here.  And I hope that you will continue to.  The reason I saw your comment earlier...  Weren't you the one who said the 24th?  I just happened to see your biting your tongue remark and was really puzzled by it.  For someone who is just an enthusiast, you have a lot of knowledge about the weather. :)  Much more than I do and I have been tracking weather for over 30 years. :)

Kristi  

Snow Snow Snow I want more snow than just a few inches with every storm we get it is a little boring. Do you think the LRC is part of a bigger weather cycle?