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Gary and the team,

I got rid of the old username to settle on this one... And I would have to say that I would prefer to see zero vs 100. As others have mentioned on here, you can only take so many layers off to cool down. Good luck with the forecast over the coming days...the models are all over the place. By the way...nice job with the blog postings today!

Bryan

0 degrees... no question.   Of course, I'd prefer no wind....but I'll take it either way over 100.   You can only take off so much clothing but you can bundle up under layer after layer.   It's so much more romantic to cuddle when it's cold.....

I would definitely prefer 0 degrees over 100s.

With the front passing through later, I'm wondering if the winds will stay up long enough to keep temps above 0.

Lets hope that 60 on Monday is short lived

The poll is over folks !!!!!

Now let's move on to more important things at hand.  No snow on Friday warmth Sunday & Monday.  Gary it indicated cold air is building?  When will it take its track south into our area?  Next Thursday are Friday for some time before that?

The LRC issue back on January 2 call for stormy.  To begin on January 25 and last through you 20 February give or take a day are two.

Has this been modified in any?  Do you still see 4 possibly 7storms  in that period from 25 January to 20 February?  

A good strong NNW when 15-20 mph temperature has not fallen to 25.6 degrees...Half ago have worked to do.      

Wow, stjoeattorney!  Actually, I don't think that the poll is over!  

Good point St Joe. The forecast said a stormy period beginning Jan 25...but the 7 day forecast shows nothing substantial through the 30th.

Anything on Feb 1?  I'm traveling from Blue Springs to North KC and back to Kingsville - lots of driving and I don't want it to be yukky!  Any ideas?

Im really shocked that a few weeks ago, it seemed like everyone was talking about all of the bad, stormy weather we would be getting in a few days and on into the first part of Feb. What happened? It does not look like any bad weather for some time..

I wonder how much snow the rest of this winter will bring?

I think you guys missed the low of 4 last night too?.....

I agree with your last statement kellyann......so far I have not seen any evidence of any stormy pattern...at least on the 7 day....and it goes into Feb....wheres the harsh winter weather?....

I looked at the 7 day...and threw up....

Gary, it looks like we natives are getting restless... :)

ok...just kidding....but 59 is sick......

Oh by the way...I'm not trying to be negative...just wondering...
;)

Can't wait for that 59!  :)

I was born and raised in Northwest Ohio and I am more used to the cold weather and lake effect, so zero it is for me!!!!! Bring on the cold!!!!!!!!

You all know how long it takes these models to catch up with the LRC...be patient, it will happen. :o) One day we will see no storms then the next day 2-3 pop up on the 7 day outlook. Hang in their....winter is not over yet.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

I'm new to the blog, but have been following it, and the LRC, for awhile now.  I've found that Gary's generally quite the forecaster, and the LRC is a novel, seemingly promising concept.  

Of late, however, I have also come to doubt the validity of the LRC as a predictive tool.  I think that this week is the perfect example of a few of the flaws of any alleged long-range predictive system.  First and foremost it should be noted that it is very easy for someone to draw parallels between systems in this part of the country at this time of year.  This is a quintessential moderate continental climate.  Winters will always be dominated by the same general polar jet patterns and high pressure systems.  While some might say that advances the argument for being able to predict a pattern, the reality is that this fact only makes it easier for people to draw false parallels between systems that are not, likely, related in any way.  Essentially, a great deal of our winter weather systems will always look very similar.  While a few systems may, by chance, fall on dates that might lead one to conclude that such systems are related to one another, it is equally likely that the systems are only coincidental.  

Why do I bring this up now?  Well, according to the currect LRC we can all see what 'should' be coming down the pike.  We can also see that it is not coming.  Initially, it appears, people were ready to portray this 'system' on Friday as the start of the wet portion of the cycle.  Today Gary reveals that such a belief is mistaken.  If a strong system had materialized, however, you can bet that it would have been used as evidence of the cycle being right on time.  It's very easy for one to make excuses as to why something didn't occur but could have.  What's the use of a predictive system if it is either invalid or inaccurate?  Any winter in which we have one half wet and one half dry should make any LRC believers question the foundations for their belief, but I suspect that the data from those instances would be dismissed by those who don't care to examine it for one reason or another.

In lieu of the lack of an event on Friday, I imagine that the disturbance moving in Sunday night or Monday will be painted as evidence that the cycle (complete with the 'big' warm-up, if that's how you choose to paint it) begins then.  

I think that it's safe to say that I  won't plan on being snowed in next Friday, but I suppose time will tell.

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Buddy,

First of all, welcome to the blog!  I understand what you are saying, and your suggestion of coincidence.  But, go back to my January 2nd blog of what I said would happen in the next three weeks to create the set ups for the Arctic air.  I showed what the pattern would look like and picked specific dates.  Both of those maps did verify, the first within 24 hours of when I said it would form, and the second one within 72 hours of when I said it would.  We issued an Arctic Air Watch on the air and in the blog, while most forecasts around the nation thought it would be warm most of the month.  So, by doing it this way this year, we have shown some predictability by using the LRC, much better than those other forecasts that were also out there. 

And, I can show you what happened in December, and what is likely going to happen during the next 25 days.  The "same pattern" can and often does produce different specific events at the surface.  So, your question of how does it really help with predicting long range is a good question.  Over the past few years we have become increasingly better at making these predictions.  So, it is a work in progress.

We believe it is not coincidence at all.  Let's continue the discussion, and be patient as sometimes I run out of time.  I am on the air in just a few minutes right now.

Have a great day!  And, thanks for the thoughts today.

Gary

some of us like the 59...some of us hate it...lol......same with the 0 and 100 degrees question..its almost equal......

....yes, the signs of rebellion are everywhere!....

(Don't mind me...I'm just killing time until the next big event!  hehe... Mike)

That last extra-warm Sunday about two or three weeks ago, I got a bat in my house.  The warm weather must have woken it up from hibernating and I shudder to think where it was hibernating.  

If you looked at the models 48 hrs ago you would have been sick, then yesterday, bam, it was looking overblown.   Now today it has backed off.   Moral of the story is dont believe the models too far out, they have been wrong more often than not long term.

Mama of 3, it's not a question of models. It's a question of comparing predictions from back in early Jan to what is predicted now. On Jan 2 Gary said : "I make the conclusion that our biggest winter storms will likely occur during that 30 day stretch from mid January to mid February."

Well, we've already gone through the first week of this 30 day stretch and gotten only a minor storm. And no one--not Gary, not the models, not anyone--is predicting a significant storm for the next 7 days. So based on that, it looks like Gary's prediction is at least somewhat off the mark.

A BAT!!! OMG..LOLOLOLOL!!! I saw bee's and flies but not a bat, thank god!! :o)

I don't know that I would say that it is bad. The 25th is on Friday. To me, many people are taking Jan. 25th to literally. The way the talk seems to be going, it seems that people are expecting it to be stormy every day from Jan. 25th-Feb. 20th. That is just a time frame. I take it that the 25th is the beginning a that pattern. Gary never did say expect a storm on Jan. 25th. I think many are hoping for a storm on that day. I could be wrong, but I took it as during that month time frame we will see 4-7 storms, not that there has to be one on that day.

cbryteach-

I was thinking about that as well, and looking back at past blog entries and past comments...It does appear that people are thinking something will be happening around the 25th of the January. I think it was suppose to be taken as the 30 day stretch from Jan 25 to mid Feb. Guess time will tell though on both parts. Either way, it was pretty good of Gary to predict the Cold air returning at least 2 weeks before anyone else even brought it up in their forecasts.

Bryan

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Bryan,

Thanks! And, the storm systems are still showing up, but we have to wait and see what happens.  I didn't get specific on dates, as we just know that the pattern in December will be repeating.  Will the storm systems be stronger or weaker, we don't know yet.  I though they would be stronger.  Let's just see what happens, and then we can look back and see how we did.  It is an experiment in progress, and ready for it to be criticized, or celebrated?

Gary

visiting my girlfriend up in maryville and its snowing pretty moderately right now.

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Thanks for the report! 

Gary

"To me, many people are taking Jan. 25th to literally."

I think so too, in including myself....but hey...we gave him leeway...there is nothing even next wednesday...which is like February isn't it?...by now we should at least see something at the end of the 7 day....maybe?...

I'll give them another week.....and if I don't see anything then.....

lol just kidding.

Well, Maybe we're [I 'am] trying to expect too much.  The storms cycled through in December every weekend or seven days.  Myself, and maybe others expected the same thing to occur beginning on or about 25 January through mid February.  I guess it shows our confidence in the LRC; possibly an over confidence that the cycle will be "identical" to that of the December cycle. I realize this is somewhat trend based and it can still come to fruition.  Get rid of the warm air; perhaps with a back door cold front which did happen back in December and we could be on track for something to develop next week but yet more significantly on or about 1 or 2 February 2008.

Gary , I would be interested in knowing if you are willing to phase the cycle past 15 February; say through April fool's day ??       Another 45 days.

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Stjoeattorney,

We are planning on doing another 45 day forecast, but not right now.  The pattern, we believe, is cycling, it is amazing, and around 51 to 54 days.  This last 45 day forecast has been an experiment.  Let's study the findings in a couple of weeks and then we will issue a new one.

Gary

Hey Gary, are you happy about this warm up?...

NO QUESTION! 100 degrees would definitely make me a happy gal! Hmmm..I see I'm  in the minority here - and yes - I should probably just move south!

New blogger here.
I will take 100 over 0 any time.  I'm so glad to hear the weather is going to warm up a bit.  
Counting the days til spring..........

I never said that it would actually start exactly on the 25th.  It's the period between Jan. 25th and Feb. 20th.  I think that we are in for a wild ride between the 25th and 20th.  Yes, Gary said that there would be warm ups before storms would come in.

The poll is NOT over yet.  The results will be posted during the 10 PM newscast.

Kristi

If I had to choose between 0 and 100 degrees that would be easy!  When I was born, on July 18, 1954, the high was 108 degrees and the hospital did not have air conditioning.  To this day I love hot weather, so I'd choose 100 degrees in a heart beat!   Debi in Brookfield, MO

Can I get 2 votes to make sure 0s are ahead? ;)

Bring on the heat baby! I'll take a 100 any day over this cold artic air. I can sit in the shade with a cool one and watch the hummingbirds while listening to the insects sing their summer song. Ahhh, can't wait to hear those old bull frogs start their chorus!  I don't mind normal winter weather with 30s and lows in the upper teens. But 10 or below is very hard on the outside animals.

0 no doubt

Here is a map showing the 500mb anomalies for day 8.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f192wbg.gif
The mild air will not last for long! Look at the huge cold anomaly developing across most of the western US at the same time a large positive anomaly develops in the East Pacific.

Hello Gary, You say flurries tonight here in downtown KC, any accumulation like a dusting or anything???

Just beyond the reach of the 7 day forecast

No brainer give me 100 any day!

Brent,
The arctic air will be nearby, but I think the temps might trend down to a little below average with the potential for more storminess. However, if we get a decent ridge to redevelop in the East Pacific the colder air in the extended could be stronger. This will obviously change since this is in the 7-10 day time period.

i would pick 0 in a heartbeat....

its been snowing pretty good for about 20-30 minutes.  its too windy to accumulate.  but the flakes are large, not the real fine ones.  hopefully, it doesnt warmup as much as the forecast suggests...

Gary, is the gusts over 30 going to happen with the push of the artic air or are they going to continue to gust over several hours? The winds are very strong here in La Cygne and was wondering if they will just moderate 16-20 MPH in the next few hours??

The temperature is already down to 7F in Omaha. The winds will likely be gusty for a few more hours.

My daughter said it is snowing here.  I guess that is a sad statement as I could open the door and see for myself.  I am so happy about the forcast, mainly because I bet my husband we would see 50* before February and he bet against me.  I win.  Okay the blog helps with these predictions, but he should know better.

The skies have cleared here in Omaha.  Still windy.  Not much measure on the snow due to the winds.

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Thanks, your temperatures should drop below zero.

Gary

I can bundle up all I want, but I can't strap on an air-conditioner, however, 100 isn't horrible, and you can work outside and nothing is froze and everything is flexable, so its still a tough call.

I think if the question was "would you rather freeze (-temps) or burn?(130+)" then it would be freeze without a second thought.

Due to the fact that it is freezing right now, yeah I am thinking I'd rather be at 100, but I know that if it was 100, I'd probably say I want 0. Never fails. I think overall though, freezing is better as it doesn't cost anything to keep your body confortable.

I hate to be picky but "0 or 100" depends on several things. 0 and no wind is OK, but 100 with 10% humidity is WAY better!

I'm so torn.  If it's not humid I'll take the 100, I'm so much colder than I used to be.  And I used to think you can always put on more clothes when cold but I'm finding it harder to stay warm and still be able to move.

Local wx is calling for -5 to -8 with wc of-17

Anyway, you think that we are going to get some good winter storms starting sometime next week? Is this the part of the pattern where it was raining or when it was a changeover last time around?
Good luck next week. If those storm do start arriving the number of comments is going to skyrocket.

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A storm is showing up for later next week.  It is still a bit too far off to analyze.

Gary

I should clarify, local Omaha wx.

100F for me.  Car will always start, I don't have to shovel rain, and I can always jump in a lake.  Arctic air belongs in the Arctic. ************ TW...I'm with you 100%! Jeremy

Gary,
    I generaly would rather be cold than hot any day of the week but to choose between 0-100 I would have to say 100.  The reason being is that if my power was out and I was stuck somewhere I think I would fair much better at 100 that at 0. I also considered that if 70 deg. is conciderd to be optimal, than 100 is alot closer than 0.

59 degrees next week...

I vote for 0 degrees for several reasons - 1. I can always add more layers to keep warm in 0 degree weather and I can attest that dressing in multiple light layers(thermals, etc.), with the right boots, hat and gloves can keep a person comfortably warm in 0 degrees, I've taken many long walks in blizzard conditions when the temperature has been around 0 and was toasty warm. It is refreshing and invigorating. Conversely, I can only take off so many clothes when it is 100 and at some point even getting down to just a pair of shorts just doesn't help me feel any cooler.

Found this cool weather site that updates the temp, wind speeds, every 10 minutes or so and also provides NWS Radio. Very cool to monitor the temp along with the wind.

http://wxex.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=66040

flurries in s. op

I've got flurries in Olathe, too.

its down to 8 degrees at the fort as of 2058...negative temps here we come!

light snow in harrisonville!!!!
LIGHT SNOW IN HARRIOSNVILLE!
LIGHT SNOW IN HARRIOSNVILLE!
LIGHT SNOW IN HARRIOSNVILLE!
LIGHT SNOW IN HARRIOSNVILLE!


look at me I am crazy over light snow!!!

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Brent,

Excellent!  They are nice flakes too!  Can you imagine one inch?

Gary

Very Windy, and Cold in Olathe with some Light Snow. I love it!!

We had more than just flurries here in Marceline...We had some very short lived heavy snowshowers....We got just around 1/2 an inch...I just got home from Chillocothee and it snowed there as well and they had just around 1" of snow with 4-5" snow drifts.

100 please. Can always find ways to cool down, but always have difficulty in getting warmed back up.

Gary:

Good very frigid evening to you sir!!

Currently at 10 with clear skies-the bottom is falling out!!

Anway: the 0Z GFS with the front Tuesday: POW!!! The rest will fall into line!!!

Bill hope he sees this correctly in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, yes, yes!  I am going to sleep.  The Canadian model has a storm with the Arctic front on Tuesday.

Gary

11 in Lee's Summit

No doubt about it.  Zero is just fine.  I love a nice day where the temp is around 5-10, and there's a nice fresh snowfall.  We had almost all woods where we lived and it was so nice to go out and see the fresh animal tracks in mid-January.

Also, as far as the cold is concerned, as the football players said during Sunday's game, it's an attitude that helps you get through a lot of it.  We saw the Giants and Eagles play in Giants Stadium in December, 1989.  The temperature was 12 for a high that day, but the wind was fierce and the windchill was around 30 below.  Out of 77,000 fans, there were only around 500 or so no-shows.  

The snow showers today were impressive, kind of like having thunderstorms roll through with the way the "snow shafts" were moving in around sunset, very reminiscent of a thundershower moving in as  you could see the heavy snow reduce visibility before it got to you!!   Now the cold air is once again freezing St. Joe;)

******************

Nick,

Thanks for checking in.  I missed out on the snow showers...I think I was in bed:)

Too cold for me this morning, just another reminder why 100 is better than 0 for me!

Jeremy