Good morning bloggers,
It is below zero over many spots this morning. Our weather team is the only forecast in Kansas City that correctly predicted both below zero mornings.
There is a lot to go over this morning. First of all thank you so much for participating in yesterday's poll. Some of you will remember that we asked the same question in August (while the heat wave was in progress) and we wanted to see if there were different results this time (while we were in an Arctic outbreak). Here are the results of the poll:
If you had to choose only one, which would it be, 100 or 0?
100 0
- August 37% 63%
- January 46% 54%
Now, onto this mornings weather. We issued the ARCTIC AIR WATCH two weeks ago for the second half of January. And, we laid out the reasons for doing so, based on the LRC , and it happened (Go to our blog on January 2nd to get a brief description of the LRC). Other forecasts around the nation were predicting no chance of an Arctic air mass, it will be a warm January, etc. You may or may not believe in the LRC, and that is fine as it is just my theory. I have been laying out the evidence for years now, and this year we have made stronger and bolder forecasts. The forecasts have been almost 100% accurate thus far, and our weather team is proud to have correctly predicted (maybe not perfectly) the last 10 storm systems. I am not trying to boast here, I am just trying to show how the LRC has provided our weather team with a huge forecasting advantage over our competitors. The weather pattern is cycling and we are in the December part of the weather pattern now. There are many skeptics out there that will think it is all just coincidence, and this is a legitimate concern on their part. But, this year I tried to show it differently. By making our 45 day forecast, which we are only half way through at this moment, we showed what the pattern would look like to create the Arctic air masses that continue to form. And, then the Arctic air masses not only formed but arrived in the exact window we said they would arrive. Does any one else see this?
The second half of the 45 day forecast, that we made on January 2nd, is still just that, a forecast. In December we went into a wavy, stormy pattern with a storm passing through every few days. We had ice storms, many snow storms, and it was quite wet for December. The heaviest snow kept falling in the same spots just north and west of Kansas City, which is another characteristic of each year's LRC. And, now, the latest ECMWF and GFS models have a very stormy pattern showing up. It hasn't happened yet, and this part of the weather pattern is just now returning, as forecast by my theory. If it does happen, will it just be coincidence? We will let our record speak for itself. We are most proud of our forecast from day to day, and we also realize that long range forecasts have rarely been accurate from any source, but during the past three years the LRC has been working as we learn more about my theory. And, most importantly, by showing what the LRC is, how we are using it, and explaining it in our forecasting, other forecasters should look into this and embrace the possibility of the LRC actually existing. They can use it too. I will likely be doing another presentation of our research and findings at one of the national meteorology conferences this year.
I haven't even talked about the big warm up yet, which I think many of us are looking forward to. But, look at what last nights GFS shows:
Wow, look at that map. 60s near us on Monday with 30 to 50 degrees BELOW zero across a large part of Canada. This air mass will get mixed into the developing storm systems. In December there were a couple of strong storm systems and many smaller ones. Let's see what happens this time. The first storm is now forecast by the European model, the Canadian model and the overnight GFS model to form along that Arctic front one week from today. Let's see if the models show it this morning. And, please remember we aren't staking our entire reputation on the long range forecast. It is a long range forecast, and if it is right we will take credit and deserve it, if it is wrong we will show where it went wrong and admit it. Thus far, we have only been able to show you that the LRC exists, and it has helped the NBC Action Weather Team tremendously.
It is a FRIGID morning out there. A weak, fast moving system will pass by Friday morning with just a slight chance of a morning snow or sleet shower. Then it is a big warm up. Enjoy it. Thanks again for participating in our poll. If you have questions about the LRC we will try to get to them as we have time. I am on Newsradio 980 KMBZ until around 9 AM, then I am working out big time with my trainer. It is chest day, one of my more fulfilling workouts, but it hurts. I always say, it will be over in an hour when I am working out with my trainer, so just push through it. Have a great day!
Programming reminder: Our brand new weekend morning newscasts begin this Saturday. Every Saturday and Sunday you can now get Kansas City's most accurate forecast at 8 AM. Jeremy Nelson will be doing the weather on these newscasts debuting Saturday.
Gary