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So the 700mb is what you look at see if there could be a few clouds, or if it will be completely overcast?

Next week looks fun...better rest up now news team :)

One of the kids in class mentioned the LRC!  Can you believe it...an 11 year old was talking about Gary's theory (he didn't use the right term "LRC" but he was talking about it just the same).  It was fun to have a brief discussion at the end of rehearsal about next week's possible return of stormy weather based on the LRC.

It is nice to know we are not the only ones paying attention:)

DL

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DL,

Just read Gary's forecast at the start of the school day on the P.A.!  Or better yet invite Gary to your school to read the forecast and surprise everyone!

Jeremy

hmmm...

**************

What is that for?

Jeremy

 

LOL - Jeremy.  I am trying to reduce the conflict due to my recent posts.  Trying to make is a bit more bland.  Probably took it too far with that last entry.

LOL - I will step it up next time with a "hmmm...interesting"

;-)

Anybody know where the best place it to put a weather station? I received one last month and I don't know if it's set up in the wrong location, or if it just read's wrong.

9 degress in Lee's Summit at 12:54 pm--I am voting for 100 at this very moment--but I like that big snow storm next week!  Deer walking through the snow-covered woods in my back yard is very picturesque!  

Outside!

Took the dog for a walk and yes it is another tundra day here in St. Joe!!!
well if that temp. map from the last post has it's way the F in February may stand for Fun!!  Although if we get another ice storm it might stand for something else...  like "fooey";)   Yes the warm up will be nice for a few days, although the pot holes will probably start getting big enough to eat cars LOL!!

I object!  Only an attorney would answer the weather station question with an "outside" response.  In regards to the LRC, I printed off January 2nd's blog so that I could refer to it as the days come and go.  It has been amazingly accurate.  I am now very impatient for the storm period to begin...  January 25th....  hmmmm.

Good sunny cold afternoon Weather Team!!!

Nick:

Lawrence already has some pot holes big enough to eat cars-late last night one of them ate my wife's tire-literally!!! LOL

All the talk of 1989 has brought back some great memories. 1989 was really a fascinating year of extremes-January was incredibly warm then a very strong arctic front blasted through here in early February and it got frigid. That summer was very hot as well accept for one period in August where a Canadian High Pressure got lost and parked right over the top of Kansas City-We went from highs in the mid 90's to having a low temperature in the upper 40's. If I am not mistaken, that is still the record low for the month of August. Then December-wow-The day that first arctic front came through was so cool and I will never forget it. The flag at Checkers on 23rd (I was in college at the time) was strait as an arrow pointing South-I will never forget that sight!!! The night it got to 24 below was just nuts!! Funny thing is that the next day warmed up to the upper 20's and then of course the rest of that winter there was nothing until March.

The March 1990 snow here in Lawrence was pretty significant-I was working at the Wagon Wheel Cafe (or as most know it The Wheel!!!) and had to drive home in almost white out conditions-I think Lawrence wound up with almost 12 inches out of that storm. Crazy winter for sure!!

Jeremy: you mentioned 2000-2001: That was a great winter here-I lived in Brook Side and my oldest son was just over a year and I had him out in the snow every day over the holiday break. We also had some ice events and some frigid cold in January/February that winter. Then of course came the dud of 2001-2002 with its freakish ice storm-that winter will always be the most dissapointing to me-it looked to be even better than 2000-2001 accept the cold air stayed locked in Canada for the most part and never made it down accept for that 3 days in late January (where it was only about 2000 feet) and then once in early March where we dropped below 0 and had 4 inches of snow-broke my oldest son's sled on that one trying to snow board down our front steps!!!!

Sorry for the trip doown memory lane, but these just got me to thinking. Better not start with 77-78 and 78-79-wow-those were just incredible winters and most likely once in a life time events!!!

Have a great afternoon-oh-still holding at 14 degrees here!!!

Bill in Lawrence

One very persistent feature of storms this winter has been strong warm air advection in front of the storm. So I would expect that again in the next round. In December's ice storm, many were convinced it would never get close to freezing in KC, when it actually got up above 32.

I will never forget the frigid air in both Feb. 1989 and Dec. 1989.  There were record lows in December 1989...  The building where I was volunteering at the time had NO heat because the building was going under renovations.  I remember we had to use space heaters to keep warm!  Anyone remember the arctic outbreak of December 1983?  I was just ending the first semester of my freshman year at KU.

I am hoping for a big winter storm next week as long as it is snow not ice!

Kristi

I remember those 77-78, 78-79, 80-81, also 73-74 was bitter cold and snow----- there was talk of GLOBAL COOLING DUE TO THE CARBON IN THE AIR.

Here in STJ in 74 I walked across the Missouri River froze on top in between the ice flows fow a couple weeks.  Not smart but I was 14.  12 Jan 1974 -25  ALL TIMER RECORD LOW.  

Bring on the snow!!!!!

stjoeattorney said:
I remember those 77-78, 78-79, 80-81, also 73-74 was bitter cold and snow----- there was talk of GLOBAL COOLING DUE TO THE CARBON IN THE AIR.


And now they say that carbon heats up the earth!! How funny!

If it is going to be near 60 on Monday I need to find a way keep away from the office.  I suggested we get laptops and sit outside!  Could next Thursday be icy?  

I guess I am too dumb to know where a weather station goes. (DUH- I know that it goes OUTSIDE....I just need to know, from somebody that don't put other's down, if I have it in a bad location.)

Anybody, other than stjoeattorney, know about how far off the ground it should be...I do have it on the north side of the house in the shade, which is where I believe it should go. If it still reads too high, I am thinking I need to get a better quality weather station.....

The cooling talk was because of carbon PARTICLES, aka soot. Since the Clean Air Act was implemented, there is much less soot in the air so this concern is not there.

Warming is said to be caused by carbon dioxide gas (plus some other gases including methane), which is completely different. I know there is a big range of opinions about global climate change, but please, people, try to get your basic facts right before expressing these opinions loudly.

Brays, the most important thing is to keep it shaded. The actual height off the ground is not tremendously important. You don't want to have it sitting on the ground, but other than that...not such a big deal.

Even on the north side of the house, the sensor may get sun during some parts of the year. Or it may get sun reflecting off the snow onto it. Not much you can do about that short of getting an enclosure like NWS uses.

I would be curious....in the past, has topsy turvy winter weather, such as we've had, been a predictor of the severity of spring weather?

I'm still hoping for that one snow storm that is so incredible,  today's kids talk about it to their grandkids.

Brays, this page says it should be 5 ft off the ground, +/- 1 foot.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/accuracy.html

yes, I cant wait for this next winter storm.

Thank you RDub-I have it approx. 6 feet off the ground, and right now there's no sun hitting it whatsoever. I think my hubby bought the cheapest weather station he could find, and oh, it's from TWC..maybe that has something to do with it...LOL

I think I need to invest in a better quality station....

I think I hate this cold bitter weather.  After living in Florida for a few years my bones do not like winter!  I would take 100 degrees anyday.  I can not get warm!  I do   like snow but this single digit  and below zero stuff is for the birds!  

All I remember about the December 1989 cold air outbreak is that it was so cold that I went outside in the backyard and came in about ten minutes later. It took about an hour to warm back up and I burned my tongue on some hot chocolate. Oh, and we did not go outside for long stretches of time that month. That is all I remember since I was rather young at the time.

What I remember about 89 is that school was cancelled due to the cold for a week if I remember right. I was in high school at the time. Remembering being surprised that school was cancelled due to the cold.

I have a nice weather station that reads 2 remote locations and has a rain gauge included.   Never have to leave the house and know what the weather is doing at all times.   It was kind of expensive, but Home Depot had them marked half off the week after X-mas.     Good luck getting yours to work.

If your unsure if it is reading the right temp, bring the remote right next to the main unit inside and see if the temps and humidity match.     Otherwise I would just follow the advice of others and keep it a few feet off the ground in the shade as much as possible.  

And Outside

Great forecast Gary, you seemed to be filled with confidence today!!   I can tell your excited that the fun starts in about a week.     You were so pumped you almost fell down  LOL  :)     Did you work out today?   You had alot of energy

Joe

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Joe,

I had a huge workout and I am sore, thanks for asking.  I ended up getting extra time for weather tonight, which allowed me to do the weather right. I rarely get the time.

And, I did almost fall, but I am O.K.

Gary

LOLOL, radman22....I was thinking the exact same thing that you wrote. I thought to myself, "Gary is so excited he about fell down," :o) I am ready and waiting for the next month to get going....the excitment is building!!!
Monica
Pleasanton KS

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Monica,

Let's hope these storms are just a bit stronger.  They must be for you to get hit. 

Gary

Strong winter storm!!! come here!!!!!!!!!!

I am eagerly awaiting the storms to come back. Hopefully, most of the precipitation will be either snow or rain. I dislike sleet and freezing rain.

Here are the official low temperatures in the Midwest CORE this morning: MUCH colder than the Central Plains.
Aurora, IL -17F
Mason City, IA -18F
Ames, IA -18F
Dubuque, IA -18F
Rochelle, IL -18F
Rochester, MN -19F
Sioux Falls, SD -19F
Sioux City, IA -20F
Davenport, IA -20F
Rice Lake, WI -20F
Tekamah, NE -20F
Winona, MN -20F
La Crosse, WI -22F
Austin, MN -22F
Cedar Rapids, IA -23F
Spencer, IA -23F
Clinton, IA -24F
Sparta, WI -31F

Wow, the 18Z GFS definitely has a LOT of storminess after day 5. This is actually starting to get a little more exciting considering the active stretch will start in less than a week according to this model run.

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And according to the last model run and the European model.  Everything is setting up, but we still don't know the specifics of each storm.

Gary

Thank goodness we are not in the "real midwest" then.  I would hate those brutal temps, it was cold enough for me at 1 degree.    I would easily give up all the extra snow to avoid temps like that.  Talk about high heating bills!!!    

I am looking forward to the exciting stretch to start.   We will all be wondering where that freezing line sets up and hope it will shift east a bit this time around.   Your LRC will have to turn some heads if this month lives up to expectations.   Then again, it cannot forecast that crazy freezing line or the dryslot... but with 4+ storm chances, the odds are good we should all see at least 1 good storm.   Anything southeast of Clinton or Sedalia, your on your own!

I am liking the new 7 day more......some cold temps next week with some ice...or w/e.....better than 60!.....

OK stjoeattorney-I get It.

well, since all of the weather stations are calling for a winter storm next Thurs...looks like Gary and his boys are right again!! I can't wait to see if it really happens! It's really amazing the models call for it, other weather teams call for it, now if it will just happen like 41 said all along!

Braysmama, you make me laugh!

I am ready for summer.  I don't even need spring... just gimme summer!!!  I think I am subconsiously boycotting winter as I have yet to actually wear a coat, gloves, hat, scarf, or anything of the sort.  I want some thunderstorms and warm, sunny, swimming weather.  

The LRC has nailed the pattern of snowfall.  More to the north and less to the south.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/eax/winter/30yrsnowavg.JPG

Amazing!

Also, with the active pattern identified in advance from Jan 25th - Feb 20th...another great hit!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=lasttime

Certainly the LRC prediction was dead on with identifying 4-7 storms in a 26 day period from Jan 25th to Feb 20th.  

Great job for predicting the potential of snow on the 31st.  Nailed it!  This certainly is one of the 4-7 storms in this 26 day forecast period.  I have to look back through the blogs to find the other specific forecast dates.

Look forward to see if it verifies...I am sure it will.

All in all, great job!  I think the LRC is a tremendous tool!

;-)

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Scott,

Thanks!  We know the pattern is cycling and the stormy part of the cycle is beginning. Now we must wait, enjoy the forecasting, and see what happens.

Gary

Cold weather is tolerable to me only when it snows.  Other types of precipitation are not welcome during cold spells.  Arctic cold without snowfall is unpleasant and makes me long for spring with its flowers and green grass.  Freezing rain only causes major problems like broken bones, wrecked cars, and power outages.  Freezing rain is beautiful when the sun comes out, but its beauty is not worth the pain it inflicts.  Snow is at least driveable as long as one exercises caution, unless it's very deep, and it does not bring tree limbs crashing down (unless it falls before the leaves drop, as in Oct. 1996).  Ice is practically impossible to drive on.  I'd like to see one 6"+ snowstorm thru the heart of KC before this winter ends, but if it doesn't happen it would be par for the course.  In 14 winters in the KC metro area, I've only seen 6 inches of snow or more fall from one storm 4 times.  Two of those happened in the winter of '96-97 when I lived in Overland Park (the "October surprise"  in 1996, 7 inches at the house, and the day after Super Bowl XXXI, where the Packers beat the Patriots in Jan. 1997, 7 inches), the other two happened in the last 3 years while I lived in Liberty.  One was in December 2005 (10 inches fell in Liberty, the most I've personally experienced in the KC area), the other was in Feb. 2004 or Feb. 2005, I don't remember which, when 8 inches fell in Liberty.  Snow lovers, let's hope for one big snow in KC proper this winter out of all this exciting weather!!

CentralOP2...your post about temps reminds me how happy I am to not live in Dubuque, IA anymore!  Looking forward to the warmup!  

well the radar to the west it lighting up, I guess I will have to go to bed and see if I see anything tomorrow morning;)

*************

At 3am the only ob reporting snow was in Nebraska.  Maybe around 6am(ish) the snow will move in.

Jeremy

 
Braysmama, the best place to put a weather station is out in the open in a cotton region shelter, (weather instrument shelter) if not the second best place to put it is on the northern roof of your house, if not then the northern part of your house because the temperature is officially measured in the shade.   Be sure if you put it out in the open that the object is at least (more is better) away from the tallest object if possible for example if a tree is 30 feet high try the best you can to put your station at least 30 feet or more away from the tree so you do not get obstructed readings due to objects. Also if you want to know temperature is officially measured 5 feet above the ground,(NWS) so this info should help you.  I know this information because recently I am working on a weather station that will be going into a cotton region shelter.  I hope this information helps.