Good evening bloggers,
You bloggers are so funny. I just was wondering if anyone was checking the blog. but as I talked about in the last blog, with the ground so cold and temperatures in the teens during the morning any snow that falls will immediately accumulate and potentially cause problems. But will it happen?
The new data tonight is quite impressive. We are in the left front quadrant of the jetstream, which is south of Kansas City. It is a rather interesting and potentially snowy set up for a brief time early on Friday morning. It is not easy forecasting a fast moving small snowstorm, and this is a strong possibility on Friday. Someone could easily see one to two quick inches of snow, but the atmosphere has to saturate first. The mechanism for this will weaken by noon. Let me show you the jet stream.
Look at the darkest blue color in the little streak moving into northwest Oklahoma. This will flatten out and not be a factor by around noon to 2 PM. But, between 4 AM and noon we are in the very strong left front quadrant of this jet streak. The left front quadrant is the strongest area of lift when looking at jet dynamics. The right rear quadrant is also an area of lifting, but this lis way down off the Baja California coast which obviously is not a factor.
What does this mean? It means snow is likely in our region, but not for everyone. It just so happens that Kansas City is near the area that will have this lift combined with some limited moisture return, and most importantly it is EXTREMELY cold out there still. It is only 8 degrees right now at 9 PM and cold air masses saturate fast with any lifting mechanism.
It will be an interesting morning to watch LIVE:ESP. Radar echoes are already increasing north and west of Wichita. I am going to bed. Jeremy Nelson will be doing the weather, tracking this developing small snow event beginning at 5 AM on NBC Action News Today. Somewhere near by may get 1/4 to 1/2 inch and it would be instantly slick out there, but other areas may be just left dry with flurries. We are just bordering on the side of caution just in case.
The warm up is still on schedule beginning this afternoon.
Gary