NBC Action Communities

Breezy will get her chance in a few years!!

Dusting here in Olathe.

Who is anchoring the weekend shows with Jeremy?  I've been so busy I haven't watched much TV except for the Presidential debates.

DL

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DL,

Any Hawley and Mike Marusars (spelling) will be anchoring.  They will make a great team.

Gary

Actually my next question is.. does anyone there sleep? It seems if Gary is off Jeremy is on. I swear I see Jeremy every day on TV. Or do you all clone yourselves? I love Jeremy (in a sisterly way) so I don't mind seeing him but gosh..no one seems to take any days off LOL

By Next Week, I will be ready for more snow,and cold!!

I see indications in the current model in fully looking  - not just at the MSLP, but the 850/700 and 500 levels for storms lining up around the following dates.

This is based on what the models currently show...

Jan 29
Jan 31
Feb 3
Feb 8

Too soon yet to determine type of precips based on how far out this is.  I have my thoughts, but the models don't really give a clear representation this far out as things in the models will change.

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Scott,

The next week will be quite fun to watch evolve right before our eyes.  I am on my way to a meeting right now.

Gary

No reason to watch a 2nd rate forecast:)



Thats funny lol. I think that the NBC weather team is and has done a great job. Just the right amount of infomation and radars for every storm. If I want more info. I just come to this blog. One thing that I find amazing is the amount of respect and the tone for this blog. Updates from everyone all the time and the weather team is always there to answer questions and give their own updates. Once again I have told co-workers and family that there is going to be another storm later next week that will have a good chance of making some snow. They just laughed! Time will tell I geuss. I know that there is a lot of politics that go into how a station will make a forecast or report on differant topics. I jump around to see the weather from other stations. Not that it is wrong or way off. I just get a sense of confidence from the NBC team. Keep up the GREAT work.  


I will be waiting for more snow and the storms that follow in the spring.

I hope we get those storm systems soon. The colder air does not look that impressive at all as I look at the 12Z GFS. It looks like more of a stormy/cool pattern, but not much in the way of arctic air at all.

Pretty quiet. shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.................................................................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

JeriCorrell said:
"I love Jeremy (in a sisterly way) so I don't mind seeing him but gosh..no one seems to take any days off LOL"

Jeremy is adorable.  My kids and husband roll their eyes because I make a big deal about my "crush" on Jeremy, LOL

Wow Jeremy it sounds like you have quite a following on the blog! LOL

we are at 28 right now but we have a south wind so we are finally make progress toweds some warm weather i am tired of this could stuff

"The colder air does not look that impressive at all as I look at the 12Z GFS. It looks like more of a stormy/cool pattern, but not much in the way of arctic air at all."

Well, if you look back on the stormy part of Dec, there wasn't a whole lot of bitter cold associated with that either. Mostly lows in the teens or 20s in KC.

There is more cold air now then there was in December

I have a friend in Oklahoma that I am trying to convince her the LRC is real.  Finally I took a couple of days when they had some precip and counted it forward to the next one.  I emailed her the dates.  She said if it happens she will be a believer.   I should have bet money on it.  Hmmmm?  Interesting thought.  I have friends all over the US I could make some serious money.  

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Before you make the bet, check with us and we can look at the maps and let you know.  Which dates did you choose for your friend in Oklahoma?

Gary

it is seasonal for the colder air now.  In addition, the jet is near full strength and should bring the most cold air down now.  Will that translate into more polar air, yes and no.  We have seen some, but remember...in general, this cycle from when ever it started to when ever it ends near summer will have a general Pacific and zonal flavor...only when the jet is strong or the pattern we are about to see returns will cold air really be discussed.

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Scott,

You are pretty much right on with this analysis.  The pattern has been capable of cross Polar flow and then it quickly breaks down, but it is strong enough to produce these Arctic air masses, which is pretty amazing.  The Pacific flow does, in the end dominate, but with a taste of the Arctic each time.

Gary

Yes the snow did come down pretty good briefly this morning!!
we got a dusting of additional accumulation at my house, now the temps are climbing up into the upper 20's with a stout south breeze.   Wow windy with temp's near 60 on monday, that will feel tropical compared to what we have been getting.  Back to mud on Monday I guess, wow, this has been an awesome winter so far with the amount of time we have had snow on the ground, the dog likes it to, likes to stick his face in snow!!

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Nick,

I think you will still have a great chance of seeing your biggest snow of the season before winter is over.

Gary

Holmes, I hope you picked some stronger storm dates.  If you randomly picked some weaker dates, it may not translate exactly.  It works pretty well with stronger storms, but does vary considerably with weaker dates.

While I believe that surface trending is an indicator of the cycle, there are more indicators that should/could be used to fully convince someone.  

Scott: "it is seasonal for the colder air now."

Not really. We've now passed the climatological peak of winter. Average highs in Feb are 40+ for most of the month, just as warm or warmer than in December. Plus the sun angle is much higher.

scott,

i agree with your second to last comment...to an extent.  yes the overall flow is pacific compared to cross polar with this pattern...but, even with a pacific pattern, polar air is still tapped.  the pacific reaches all the way to the north pole, so, i think many viewers are misguided in thinking that pacific air is 'warm' air.  in fact, it would seem that despite this earlier-season ice event...pacific air doesnt lend to icing as much because the layers dont have nearly the tropical origins.  with a polar flow, as the wave approaches, air of tropical origin is naturally tapped, usually causing a warm sublayer with freezing upper layers.  i know you know this, but there is a misconception about pacific origins...and i remember a couple months ago you werent convinced about moisture making it here from the pacific either...

that being said, the jet is so strong this time of the year, that i think the bigger ice storms this time around will be centered around n. central arkansas MAYBE exteding towards SE and s. central missouri-out of the viewing area.  thats just my thoughts.  i am actually more concerned about the stronger jet taking the energy farther south, leaving us in a dry sector...

rdub,

we have only passed the climatological peak(or valley, depending on how you look at it) of temps for the winter...feb averages the same amount of snow as january...and in these parts all it takes is some snow on the ground to give you 'middle of the winter' temps.  

While nobody can prove 1" fell, you nailed it Gary.   Everybody else last night, and early this morning, was saying this would be "no big deal".     You warned people last night that just a little bit at that time could cause trouble, and it did.    My point is, if you watched any other station, you would never have seen this coming.  

Great job again and I too cannot wait for the real show to begin

Joe

i'm trying to get a handle on what the long-range forecast for march looks like, especially the first two weeks. anyone want to go out on a limb?

scott... i visted your blog and found yours, nice post, very complete. i'll check again in a few weeks to see if you've changed it.

bill in lawrence... care to have a shot? you certainly have been quite observant these past months and know a whole lot more than me, for sure!

anyone? gary? jeremy? jeff, brent? if you don't want to post here, feel free to contact me directly via email. (i tihink i can post that here, yes?) if not, guess i register on scott's blog! mtrainor@kc.rr.com.

thanks!

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Mike,

We think the part of the pattern that has produced the Arctic air masses will return again around March 10th or so.  But, will it produce the same amount of cold air, and will it get here.  Given the time of the year it may be difficult, but remember our biggest snowstorm in KC history occured in March 1912 on March 22. The stormier part of the pattern would be due in between March 15th and April 5th.  March should start out warmer than average.  Take this with a grain of salt right now, as we have not made an official forecast for this stretch yet.  I am going to look at the pattern soon and try another 45 day forecast in a couple of weeks.

Gary

This Monday set up is interesting, even if it is not the "same part" of the cycle, you know how adjacent events will have similar outcomes with the LRC, well Monday's set up makes me wonder, Gulf moisture surging north and east, strong surface winds and strong jet stream winds aloft (at noon Monday the NAM has roughly 60 knot winds at the 850 mbar level out of the south west) and a frontal boundary sliding in...   could some areas be in for another unpleasant springlike surprise?

also rdub, given the extreme orientation of the jetstream in feb, the extra couple minutes of light(i emphasize couple) doesnt play as much a factor as it would in march.    you really arent out of the woods here until sometime in march, and even after that it can still get damagingly cold or snowy.  that is the main reason why i have been critical of the competition this winter, as they have been downplaying what usually happens here just because we have had a couple warm/slow years in a row.  its shortsighted.  

You just made me smile Gary;)!!

i'm not saying february isn't winter, or isn't cold. i'm just saying it's not coldER than december. and i was talking about average high and low temperatures, not average precipitation.

and it's more than just a "couple" minutes of light extra in feb compared to dec. we're gaining a couple extra minutes of light EVERY DAY.

Radman, I think "no big deal" describes what happened this morning pretty well. It sure wasn't a big deal within the 435 loop.

I hope it is cold and we get a lot of snow!!

I posted this right before you guys put up the new blog so I am going to re post if its ok.....


hey Gary are you there now?...

I had a question..lol its an un-asked one so far
the music you play when you show esp on weather plus after your little segment....can you tell me where you got it?...I love one of the songs...and the rest are great!...it sounds somewhat like electronic music...sometimes....anyway...if you could please tell me where that music came from maybe I can locate it...man, I would even pay for it...lol

Good job on the forecast team..I think you nailed it....with this small of precip its very hard but you did a great job...the other stations were not calling for anyhting more than flurries...and when they got half an inch in some places they were quiet about it on the news at noon...cause they didn't want to broadcast that that much snow fall...lol....you guys did well once again....although when I watched the news last night I was really hopefull. because Gary said .5 inches was possible in some spots...I should have known better than to get my hopes up for harrisonville  getting anything.....but when I woke up....like warrensburg...there was not mcuh more than a few flakes that showed up on the cars...

I will now raise my standard.....I want a good 6 inch snowstorm...or I will not be happy!!!!

lol
keep up the great work team...you are definitely the best team in the KC metro for the winter....you guys work as a team unlike some of the other stations that just let each meteorologists do their own thing...and thats a contributing factor to your success I believe.

get me some snow!!..lol just kidding...

thanks

Brent

radman22 said:
"Everybody else last night, and early this morning, was saying this would be "no big deal".     You warned people last night that just a little bit at that time could cause trouble, and it did."

No kidding!  My husband called me at 8:15 this morning and said "(competitor) is full of (crud)!!  It's snowing hard and getting slick out here!" (Northland)  

I said "Duh, why did you even listen to them?"

sigh...

I follow both the NWS and Gary and his team only....  I don't watch any other station.  The NWS has a 30% chance of snow for us on Thurs.  That is Jan. 31st.  A week from today is Feb. 1st.  You can say or think what you want but Gary called this pattern sometime ago.  We may not have gotten 2 inches today but we got snow and NWS was not calling for any snow in its forecast at 6 AM when I went to bed.

Kristi

"when they got half an inch in some places they were quiet about it on the news at noon...cause they didn't want to broadcast that that much snow fall."

what, do you expect news stations to make a big deal about a dusting of snow that happened in late january? give me a break. the reason it didn't get mentioned on the news is simple: a dusting of snow is not newsworthy. Maybe it would be in South Carolina, but not here.

Did we suddenly shift 500 miles further south? I can't believe people are making such a big fuss about a dusting of snow.

"radman22 said:
"Everybody else last night, and early this morning, was saying this would be "no big deal".     You warned people last night that just a little bit at that time could cause trouble, and it did."


yeah thats right...

are you supporting other stations Rdub???....lol

Rdub - you are correct based on temps for Feb.  As we are in the last week of Jan, that was more my reference point as it related to this part of the prior cycle in early December.

Pvt - yes, your point is valid.

Mike - things change almost daily.  Also, I don't require registration any more.

Weatherteam - even with the limited dusting or the "no big deal" thoughts...still better than thinking it would be clear.  LOL

Brent or anyone, please post the link from nbcactionnews.com, or any source, that has a news story about the big impact of today's "storm". i haven't seen any news outlet reporting anything about this snow, and for good reason.

Beckysma-I agree Jeremy is cute.  Just another reason to watch this station.  Can't wait for snow next week.

great forcast Gary, you nailed it! i think we will get a pretty good snow in the next couple of weeks! i sure hope we do.

Rdub,
It may have not been a big deal but it was not forecasted by the NWS. Like I said, I don't watch other stations' forecasts so I do not know what those other stations said.

My mom said that she walked out on the deck this morning and it was like a sleet/snow combo.  I still see some on the sidewalk and driveway.

Kristi

RDub- I don't think anyone made this out to be storm of the century.  THey were just saying with these temps even a 1/4" would be slick on the roads, which it was here in Tonganoxie.  Gary or Jeremy do you guys think we will see a "big one"  this year?  (as in snowfall potential)

Read the comments. People here are trying to make it into a bigger deal than it was. Like somehow they were blindsided by a big storm that should be the lead story on the noon news broadcast. And NWS did  predict a "slight chance of snow" for Friday morning.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=EAX&product=ZFP&issuedby=EAX
Hit "previous version" to find earlier forecasts.

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Rdub,

I know for a fact that we were the only ones to say there was any chance of accumulation.  And, there was a concern that only 1/4 inch of snow would have made it a mess out there.  It came very close.  So, we feel the forecast worked well. 

Gary

I picked the week of Feb 3rd for my friend in Oklahoma to get precip.  She said there hasn't been a lot in their area.  She lives in Edmonds.  Let me know if I picked a good date.

RDub,
Yes, the sun angle sure is more intense around here. (I immediately felt the difference when I spent part of the holidays in New Hampshire.
The daylight hours HERE increase much more rapidly in the months of January and February compared with areas further north.
The winter AVERAGE temperatures have been going up for a number of years. If you looked at the average high/low temperatures for KCI 10-20 years ago they were a few degrees cooler compared with TODAY.

CentralSnowing...here's a good website that has day length at different lattitudes.  Pretty interesting.

http://www.orchidculture.com/COD/daylength.html

Rdub, I guess it just depends on your perspective as to the importance of just a dusting of snow, I have a 17 yr old that drives to school, when the roads aren't slick so even a dusting at these temps, makes me take other actions, I also have cows calving and even the slightest precipitation can make the difference between a live calf and a dead calf. So, was it important enough to mention, to me it sure was...my son made it to school and home safely via mom the taxi and all my new mommy cows are nestled safely in the barn.
IF you continue to blog here, you will discover we are a zealous lot, be it snow, ice, cold, wind, sun, tornado's...you'll find ita great deal of fun if you simply try to enjoy and learn instead of posting to cause drama

I am only saying that 41 was the only station to say that there would be slight accumulations....all the other stations said flurries...no accumulations at all....so therefore they were wrong in a lot of places...they were right here though....lol.....

GFS looks good for a heavy snow on February 5th...

Bootz, I've been on this blog for over a year now. So please don't lecture me about it. And I know lots of farmers who routinely deal with a lot worse weather than this without thinking it's a big deal. Heck, if the farmers in upstate New York and Wisconsin thought that a dusting of snow was a big deal, they'd never sleep a wink.

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Rdub,

Great point, but for travel in the city 1/4 inch would have been a mess at the wrong time. But, also only because our ground was so cold was this a factor.

Gary

Rdub, I was NOT lecturing, just inserting a pearl of wisdom, and apparently you know nothing of farmers..or you would know during this kind of weather if your calving, we  don't sleep, but...enough of the pettiness......I enjoyed my minor snow event this morning but am really looking forward to a thaw

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Bootz,

It sounds like you are ready for spring.

Gary

RDub,
Thanks for the link. The area of NH I visited was about 43.5N latitude so the sunset time in December is around 4:15-4:20. In January the sunset moves up into the 4:30-4:40 range.

Hey...can we please get back to the weather instead of yelling at each other?  I'd go somewhere else if I wanted drama.  

i agree Barbara. This is a WEATHER blog, not debate team.

Gary - You likely were the first of the media to catch the snow.  And your forecast was very good.  It warned of the potential and still produced, and thankfully was not that big of a mess.

I know some other outlets missed all together.  That said, I think we are splitting hairs here.

For what its worth regarding the NWS, they did get it before everyone - even accumulation.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 AM CST THU JAN 24 2008


"THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS."

Gary, you did a great job with the blog to show why you thought it would snow.  Great visuals.

The forecast discussion from 3:53PM  01/24/07  from EAX picked up on what you described last night on the blog.  It mentions the quick shortwave, the lift generated from the jet streak and the potential for accumulating snow

But even with that the NWS was hedging a bit on how much could accumulate and where.

All said, we are talking about hundreths of inches of liquid at best to create what happened this morning...and that is my point about splitting hairs.

All said, the risk was communicated and it was done correctly.

RDub, why must you continue to argue about it?  It wasn't a big deal TO YOU but the slick roads WERE to other people.  Let them be.  Why do you care so much?  Just as Gary's question about whether we prefer 0 degrees or 100 degrees, every single one of us is entitled to our own opinion.  Your apparent "seniority" on the blog doesn't entitle you to belittle others.

Who are you, the Weather Police?

Remember last Feb 16...now to me, that was a big deal, and a surprise. It snowed pretty heavily around evening rush hour and really snarled the commute home. I'm pretty sure most forecasters were surprised at how much that little thing dropped.

Scott, good job of summing up what I wasn't getting across well.

I think I agree with the general sentiment of this last "storm".  It was cautioned because of the timing and the potential quick accumulation due to the cold temps.  No one thought it was going to be more than that.  

In a general sense, as we are in Winter and in the midwest, this morning generally is considered a non event.  So to that I agree.

That is the weather analysis.  And I think that is what was generally intended.  To take the impact of any weather be it hot, cold, wet or dry will certainly affect different people different ways.

Each person is entitled to express their beliefs.  Taking the banter and bringing it to a personal level is not needed - both in criticism or in belief.

So to that, lets take the high road.  Heaven knows, I am the first to critique and express my opinion, but I try very hard to attack ideas and not people.  [Even if I am a bit persistent at times]

"Seniority" or senility for that matter really are irrelevant here.

LOL - ;-)

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Scott,

Thanks!  And, of course I agree.  We will continue to discuss weather topics, debate them.  We can go over how a forecast was right, wrong, and learn in the process.  But, we don't need to attack anyone personally, ever.

Gary

Can I just say that I'm loving the fact that my weather station says it's 33 degrees outside?  Feels like a heat wave!  :)

Barbara, should we expect to see you by the pool?

Barbara, I've had Martha and the Vandellas "Heat Wave" running through my head ever since it hit 25 today.

If we start arguing , us gals will have to start a Jeremy's Cute blog and discuss weather there.
On another note, reading about March through April with a stormy pattern, I sensed they meant cold air and snow. Must we cut my storm chasing season down so much if that is the case? (Heavy sigh) *************** I now owe your $20 for the compliment Jeri! Now let's not get carried away...these are the type of comments that will get deleted:) Jeremy