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I am looking forward to the stormier part.  However, I am confused, I thought there was supposed to be a bigger storm that was supposed to impact our area this weekend.

Gary -

First off... it should be, "It is Friday Night in the Big Town."  

Proper nouns and such.

Also, how did you determine it is a 54 day cycle?  I understand the LRC, but didn't you originally think 45 day cycle?  I know this is a work in progress.  Just wondering.

Thanks!

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Luther,

Last year was a 45 day cycle.  This year is around 54 days, but we issued a 45 day forecast back on January 2nd.  So, this is what may be confusing you.  The cycle is determined, once we can show that it is repeating. It took until early December until we noticed this pattern returning.

And, I will get the name changed!  Thanks.

Gary

Gary--good information--Now in the 54 day cycle I have written down the 31st of January would correlate with the start of the December 8th storm.  So would there be more storm systems lined up after Feb 1st?  I can see your point about the strength though.  I wonder if the Feb twist is the storms track a bit further south?  I am betting on two major winter storms!   I hope Topeka is still in the main path though and KC.  Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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These two storms will be closely related as they are about 54 days apart.  Remember the other part, and a major part of my theory.  The "long term" long wave troughs and ridges exist.  One of these is near eastern Missouri. This is why the storm systems try to dig southeast and then bottom out near us and then lift northeast from there.  So, any one of these storm systems will have the potential to be one of the bigger ones depending on baroclinicity (temperature contrasts).  The Arctic air is important.

Gary

I cant wait for the big snowstorm or snowstorms! I just hope we have enough cold air to get a heavy snow! GFS looks good for a heavy snow on February 5th...

Gary,

Yes, the pattern is cycling.  It is no longer a question.  Regarding #2, we are certainly in the amplified pattern now that will continue through Feb 7th by my estimation.  

So for this, just like December, October, and another month we will see the Western troughing bring us this potential.

You are dead on with the two deeper storms.  Those are very visible in the surface trends as it would likely be in parallel to this upper air pattern.  And yes, the other precip dates are much weaker.  Mostly from the lead up or tapering off of moisture from the stronger storms as these clippers try to work with weak moisture returns.

I think the polar air is going to be an interesting piece of this.  Some may think that it is strong enough to push these farther south.  The models want to try to do this.

It won't happen that much.  Here is why.  This year, the polar air we have gotten has been somewhat shallow.  All, remember December?   I think really only this last stretch did I see it get really above the 700mb level, and it wasn't for long.

I think the cold air will be in place, but not strong enough at the upper levels to push the mid level cyclones that much.  Some..yes..but not what I am seeing on the models.

Lets not forget the longwaves in this?

I do think the surface lows may be impacted a bit, and this would lend itself to how the cold and warm air mix near the surface.  I do expect to see some decent WAA in some of these set ups, but I am not sure yet how it will play out.  I would not be suprised to see some mix setups, but lean still to a cooler solution during the stretch through the first week of Feb.  After that, all bets are off as I believe we will begin to transition again to a more zonal feel and likely warm up.  We will get a temperature break until we see this pattern come back.

Lets not forget the sneaky cold spell in the zonal flow.  Perhaps leading into the second week in March?

Much of the above in what I wrote is not new analysis, but repackaged to apply to this entry.

;-)

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Scott,

You are so funny!  (And another month......hmmmmm).  Anyway, very good observations. 

Gary

 Hello Gary,  Do you think there will be refreezing on roads tonight with the wet road and walks? And hat off to you , you call it last night when everyone else was saying either nothing or just flurries nothing much, I guess that's why NBC ACTION WEATHER TEAM is the MOST ACCURATE, you guys do great  job!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Thank you for the kind words.  There will be some refreezing, but most of the precipitation either melted, or sublimated so it shouldn't be that bad.

Gary 

Gary...don't think I'm putting you and or your theory down, but what you said in tonights blog about these storm systems being much weaker than before and tracking a lot like they did last month, that's what I've been saying for a while if you remember?  I know there are a few people such as Brent that do remember and could back me up at it.  My gut feeling this entire time that we (mostly the south side) would not get much more this year, is likely going to be true.  Of corse things can still change, but the way things are going, it looks like my feeling is going to be correct.  I actually hope I'm wrong because I really hate the warm weather, and would much rather have snowy and cold than anything, but....

So how sure are you about us having maybe one or two major winter storms?  Could the south side actually get more than 2 or 3 inches?  That would really be nice.  I think we all would like at least ONE nice big storm...but my % prediction of that happening is 40%.  Thats just me.  What do you all think???  

Oh Gary also...it was really funny when the computer kept doing the wrong thing while you were on the air at 5!  And I loved the "ohhh, what ever...I'll get it right at 6!"  Funny!

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Jacob,

And, I did do it right at 6 PM, thank goodness.  Yes, if they are weaker then your gut feeling will have been correct.  But, we don't know this yet.  Let's see what happens before we can give your gut feeling the credit it deserves.  We still may end up with some very exciting set ups. Let's hope you get a good 4 incher to satisfy your snow appetite.

Gary

awww I was expecting thursday's snowstorm to continue into next friday when you guys updated it...well...lokes like a one day storm.....

I have asked this a lot now,...I don't know if anyone does not want to answer it , or if its just not important....lol...but I'll try once more.....
maybe you don't know the answer...*sigh*


"hey Gary are you there now?...

I had a question..lol its an un-asked one so far
the music you play when you show esp on weather plus after your little segment....can you tell me where you got it?...I love one of the songs...and the rest are great!...it sounds somewhat like electronic music...sometimes....anyway...if you could please tell me where that music came from maybe I can locate it...man, I would even pay for it...lol "

Brent

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Brent,

I like that music too.  It comes from the National Weather Plus at NBC.  We will have to ask them what they are using?

Gary

'I know there are a few people such as Brent that do remember and could back me up at it. "

"Indeed I can Jacob, I remember you saying, and I agreeing that we had concerns that the second patter cycling would maybe not be as strong as the first...and I never had any hope really that they would suddenly start tracking south....I believe the heavy snows will stay up north all this winter...its just how these kind of winters go, and as for the second round of storms being stronger...obviously , time will tell.

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Brent,

We have seen in other years where the snow kept tracking across the same areas, even in other parts of the cycle.  So, it is scary for those of you wanting snow down south.

Gary

I thought it odd.......that a certain station at 5....said..

"A series of storm systems is setting up for next week...."
" I believe most of them will be rain....or they will just miss us all together!"


I just thought that kind of odd......


Brent

thanks brent.  I guess the way these storms tracked (west and north) is all part of this years LRC.  It's just the way the pattern set up, and as it turns out, we don't get much.  I guess Mother Nature is making things even.  Last year, the south got all the snow and the north got nothing.  Now it's the other way around.

Brent!  I heard the same thing!  odd...is right.  And I also kinda agree with the rain part.  

Gary, last pressing question for the future I promise! What do you think the largest one-day snowfall here in OP will be these next two weeks? This is just a question that will give me some type of idea of what is going to happen over the next two weeks. Any answer will not be held against you!

hear that everyone, the answer is not set in stone. After all, it is the weather.

Thanks Gary!  I am very hungry for a big yard full of snow!  I've been starved for a while now...and I would love to have a nice big buffet!

Cant wait to see what this winter will do!!!

Gary, last pressing question for the future I promise! What do you think the largest one-day snowfall here in OP will be these next two weeks? This is just a question that will give me some type of idea of what is going to happen over the next two weeks. Any answer will not be held against you!

hear that everyone, the answer is not set in stone. After all, it is the weather.

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Honestly, I can't answer this right now.  I really am uncertain how each storm will set up. I will be shocked if it doesn't snow a few inches though.

Gary

Brent,
I love the Weather PLUS music too!

Gary, this morning's snow brought Parkville's snowfall total up to 14 inches exactly. Can't wait for the next storm!

 Good Evening Gary,  I know it's early, but just wondering any storms for first weekend in Feb, next weekend?

Good Evening Weather Team!!!

Currently sitting at 28 degrees under clear skies. To me, this was a good old fashioned transitional day-breezy and still chilly, but you could sure smell that warmer air today!!!

Just a couple random thoughts this evening that as always I hope make some sense in the end!!!

1. I have once again banned myself from looking at a model output beyond Tuesday-I fully believe the energy at the end of this week will be there and indeed believe it will affect in some shape or form always remembering that the last time through this was a rain event for Lawrence with about 2 hours of freezing rain at the outset. However, it is only Friday and there are 16 GFS Runs, 8 EURO runs, 8 Canadain Runs and 8 UKMET Runs before we even get to Monday-each one is going to have a different solution to what the end of next week will be like. Remmeber that the last week of November into the first few days of December, the models did not have a clue as to what was comming down the pike. This time, to me, will be no different. Since I have the luxury of a ban, I shall so do it!!!

2. Besides the fluctuations in the models, the other reason I am not looking beyond Tuesday is that in my little hobbyist mind, the front froecasted to come down Tuesday is the benchmark of us entering into the stormy pattern and will set the stage for how much cold air we get. In my very very humble and hobbyist opinion, this front is the cousin of the 12-5 clipper and that clipper really set the stage for December again, in my own little hobbyist mind-it opened the gates for the colder air to shuffle/ooze down and was entirely under forecasted by the models until 24 hours before the event. To me, this all follows suit with early December-12-3 the ridge pops up in the Rockies then the clipper-now, the ridge is popping up in the Rockies thus our warm weekend and we have a cold front forecasted to come in here on Tuesday-in both cases, the long range models looked at things about the same-strong on 2-3 runs then weak weak weak-then pow. I just think that this front is important and a big bench mark. I mean look at the difference in the model outputs on the runs where that front Tuesday is strong. I think it will be strong and prob. very close to as strong on 12-5-Edmonton is running almost 10 degrees below normal as is Yellowknife-the cold air is there.

Just some random thoughts-again, kind of going out on a limb and for sure I am way out from where I should be given my limited knowledge but I thought I would give it a shot and hope I am not free falling from a broken tree branch LOL

I have mixed emotions about the warm up-kind of sad to see the ice go off of the ponds in three days just when they were really making the ice but, my garage needs to be cleaned and more importantly I have 5 Thomas Trains buried in the snow in my back yard that I must find so it is going to be nice!!! LOL

Have a great night and as always thanks for reading!!!!! Enjoy the warm weather this weekend-it will be nice and as much as I have loved the cold this past week, it will feel good!!! I hope everyone on the weather team will get a chance to get out and enjoy it-without a doubt, it is a great and rewarding expireince tracking the weather but it is even better to get out and enjoy it!!!!!

Bill looking for Thomas Trains in Lawrence

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EXCELLENT BILL,

Don't look at the GFS run, but it does look stormy on the latest run!  It's getting closer.

Gary

sertorius...great outlook!

how big of a snow storm next thursday gary?

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Jacob,

It looks good, but it looks like December.  We had snowstorms in December that produced 8 to 9 inches of snow northwest of Kansas City. This one looks like one of those, so now you have to hope it goes just a bit farther south.  Come on down!

Gary

SNOWSTORM...COME ON DOWN!  YOUR THE NEXT CONTESTANT ON THE SNOW IS RIGHT!

I can't believe it!! Another Station has copied you Gary, and has a 24 hr Weather Station now. :( Weather PLUS is still the best.

ANDREW...WHO?

Hello Gary. any chance of snow tonight, it look as something on ESP west of Emporia, i dont know

They use Accu Weather.com for the national forecast!!?! Gary you beat them definitely. I have to admit Bryan Busby is my 2nd favorite tv met. Do you guys meet other Tv Mets from KC at the AMS Meetings?

Jacob

9.2 K*BC

who copied?....

channel 9?......what channel is it?

does anyone know are we suppost to get snow tonight? LIVE ESP west of Emporia looks like something form, Heck i dont know

tell me when you guys find the esp music!

I'm out....its late....

what channel?

9.2 DT

Gary, I don't know if I read the models right, but Thursdays storm seems to be trending a bit further south? I've never actually analyzed a model and have seen that they can be misleading. I wish that possible 8-9" could magically set up over the south metro.

No Snow expected, I think it's just Ground Clutter, the skies are clearing.

oh ok thanks Andrew

Weather Cast PLUS is updated:

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/weathercastvideo.htm

is it on reg. cable?

Your Welcome

Don;t Know jacob

great job andrew!

This weekend looks absolutely incredible, get out and enjoy everyone! Gary, what's the chance we get a nice rain on Monday to wash some of that nasty salt & sand away?

Thanks Jacob!!

Today I predicted a High of 33F, it got up to 32F so within 1.

The low I predicted was 0F, it got down to 9F, I missed by 9.

Just updated my blog:

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

ok the gfs has the system for next thursday and friday to the south but according to the lrc shouldn't that move further north to effect areas like topeka,leavenworth,and st. joseph like it has been doing all season long?

MY UPDATED 5 DAY FORECAST:

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/weathercast5day.htm

come on Andrew put 60 in there for monday!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm blown away!  How did you get a green screen and work it that well.  Did it cost you a million?

I'm surprised too Jacob,For how well it works seeing that I have Dial Up!!
I got a green screen for $20, tubetape.com

how much was the final cost?  was it real hard to do?

I've been wanting to do what you did for years!  I am SOOO jealous!

I just have a normal Video camera with video editing software. I use Debug Mode WAX (google it) which is a free video editing software.

LRCfan,

I might tomorrow, I be gone all day, but should be able to do it around 4-5pm or so. Tonight the models seemed to be just a little bit cooler. As  I learn to use the LRC, I try not use the models as much.

It was hard at first b/c you have to have alot of light, I really still don't have enough lighting to make it 100% Perfect.

Green Screen- $20

The video camera is my moms/our family's

Tripod we've had for yrs

Computer is old, but has XP.

Screen Recorder- FREE

POWerpoint (Comes w/Microsoft Office) or Openoffice.org (FREE)

Is it just me or is the SREF wanting to give us more and more parameters with each model run that are supportive of some severe weather?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008012603/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f075.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008012603/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f075.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2008012603/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f075.gif
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Showers and thunderstorms are in the Monday forecast.  It will be interesting to see the 12Z runs.  The 6Z appeared to slow the front a hair on Monday-Monday Night.  SPC does not have a risk area at the moment.

Jeremy