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What a great start to the weekend! Highs reached the mid 40s to low 50s across the viewing area. The snow is quickly vanishing across the region. Only big piles and north facing surfaces have snow remaining in most spots in the metro. The next two days will eliminate the snow in most locations...even northern areas around St. Joe and Maryville should see the snow disappear. Below is the visible satellite from Saturday afternoon. The snow pack is now over mainly northwest MO.
Heading into Sunday the accelerator is pressed to the floor and temps are set to soar! Most areas will be in the 50s, with an isolated 60 in southern and southwest areas. Then by Monday most areas should top out in the low 60s with a strong south to southwest wind(20-35mph). The mild air is streaming in out ahead of a large storm system over the West. Below is the 500mb map for Sunday afternoon. Notice the vort max dropping into the West and the mild southwest flow over the Plains and Midwest.
By Monday a trough will approach the area giving us a chance of showers and thunderstorms. At the moment no severe weather is anticipated. Colder air arrives by Tuesday behind a cold front along with a chance of a mix or snow. The Monday rain and Tuesday mix/snow chance will be our focus on Sunday's blog.
A lot of people have asked about the Thursday storm which we have been talking about for a long time(weeks). The 18Z GFS finally placed the track in a very familiar position for this winter season and one that we have been anticipating that the models would trend towards. This storm is still a long way out, but we are gaining confidence on the track. The one thing that is still a big question mark is whether the storm develops and is negatively tilted...or will it be more progressive and positively tilted. Negatively tilted would probably mean more snow...positively tilted would mean a faster moving storm and less snow. The 18Z GFS is more progressive...but still brings accumulating snow to the region. Here is the 500mb map for Thursday. Notice the vort max over north-central Oklahoma and that the wave is positively tilted.
This storm will have many different 'faces' on each model run, but we are very confident that a storm will occur in our area around Thursday. Before we get to Thursday we have a lot of forecast challenges to focus on with the big warm-up and also a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday and a snow chance by Tuesday!
Have a great night and once again a huge thank you to everyone that watched the debut of NBC Action News Today Weekend Edition! Keep in mind that airs each Saturday and Sunday morning from 8-9am!
Jeremy