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It's clear here in La Cygne, with just a light frost coating on everything making it very pretty with the soft orangy pink glow of the rising sun.

If the wind on Monday is suppose to be 25-35 mph, what are the gusts going to be like! I need to get a windmill generator.

I live on a open prairie with very few trees; and when the winds howls this fast the whole house takes a beating. I will be retreating to the basement as I hate strong winds. :)

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Winds will probably be 20-35mph.  The gust around 35 or maybe a little higher.

Jeremy

Weird! Now the fog is rolling in and it is dense. No more than 10 minutes ago I could see across the pasture and the stars.

Good Morning,
I had to laugh when I saw posts about home snow machines and they do exist!!
You can get them on ebay, I am going to get one someday, seriously that would be  too much Fun!!  I would probably just leave it on LOL
heres the link: http://cgi.ebay.com/Snowmaker-Snowgun-Snow-maker-Snow-gun-Snow-Machine_W0QQitemZ220195574919QQihZ012QQcategoryZ1303QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem.  How amazing.  Neighbors would not like us anymore!  Plus I will have a 600 dollar water bill.  
Looking forward to the warmth today, then I will be ready for some snow. I hope we get more.  Rooting for this years LRC, it hasn't failed yet!  

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Thanks for checking in!  Make sure to tune into the morning show!

Jeremy

we had some fog here this morning...I would say about 3/8th mile visibility...lol

hows the thursdays storm looking for us south of KC?

Let's put a Snow machine in Brent's yard, and maybe Jeremy's too!! ;) *************** As long as the snow is on the lawn and not the roads I can tolerate it a little more. Jeremy

The NWS and the weather channel are predicting a big snowstorm on Thursday. The models also think it will be a big storm. Do you think we will have a pretty decent snow out of this up north?

yes yes...someone make me a snow machine please!!...maybe we can all invest some in one...and we each get to use it a different week of the winter!

The more I research them the more I think having one would be totally awesome...

I like the NWS....
lol
8)

thursday into early friday time range looks interesting I dont know if I'm looking right but it looks like north sections again. ************ We aren't surprised...and at this point hopefully you aren't either. Jeremy

no no...it doesn't look like the north sections!

no!

lol just kidding...

Brent

I cannot conncet to NWS, server issue... I will look later I guess.  
Hey brent that machine is only 200 , put back 50 a week and get it a month, I would probably be trying to make snow in JULY, lol. ************* What do you need off the NWS site? Try this...basically the same thing only easier to use. http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php

Brent I really hope you do get snow with this one but it's this darn pattern we have been in this winter :(

well, my thoughts on the current gfs are as follows...for anyone who is interested that is...

it seems that most of the moisture will be post-frontal with the mon/tues storm.  i personally am hoping for a quicker frontal passage, but its looking like an early tuesday time frame.  given the warm air ahead of the front, it looks like the southeastern parts of the area will see a mix before a transition to snow; whereas the northwestern parts will probably see mostly snow.  the qpf isnt very impressive, so i wouldnt expect any surprises out of this one.

the biggest thing i see is that the thursday event wants to give off a neutral tilt just as it passes us.  we all know by now that a negative tilt allows for the richest plume of moisture to feed into the storm...so, this isnt going to be an ideal situation for snow in our area as of right now.  that doesnt mean it wont snow, its just unorganized.  however, if the storm slows down like they always seem to do this season, it will put us in the right area for the peak part of a disorganized storm.  this will likely be another 2-4 incher for many.  it seems our best chance of a large snow this year will require convection.  thats just asking alot sometimes.  and even if there is convection, just like with thunderstorms, they are isolated.  it wont be a region wide event.  so, i am not terribly excited with this work weeks' storms.  although, some snow is better than no snow.  i am looking forward to the dec. 22nd storm to come back around again! that one was the biggest of the cycle.  

what do you think? ***************** As you mentioned the Thursday storm does look to favor northern areas at the moment. Snow totals don't look to uncommon with previous events this winter...but at this point I don't want to put a single number on it...but your's seems alright at the moment. Remember back to Gary's winter forecast where ULL's want to track and fall into the long term longwave. This one wants to do the same thing. That is generally why the same areas receive snow over and over. Good to hear from you PVT...it's been a few days. Jeremy

Brett34, I couldn't connect to P. Hill either, here's the link to the models themselves.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

There is a heck of a monster storm around 9 - 10 days out, yikes!  I'd rather yall got snow machines instead of seeing that thing pan out.  :o) **************** Lots of precip. chances in the next 3 weeks. Should be fun and a lot of work:) Jeremy

I love this warmer weather...I cant wait for spring and for severe weather season!!! ************* Watch out what you wish for this severe weather season! Jeremy

warm.........ick

warm........ick

do you have a link to he monster storm stormwyndd? ************ I don't think you want to view it...it gives you rain/mix then snow. Plus it is a long way off. Jeremy

This winter has kind of reminded me of 2003-2004. In 2004, we had a later start to severe weather but we had a ton of severe weather in Nebraska and Kansas, so Jeremy's hunch may be correct...

Jon ************ My hunch is solely based off the active pattern producing several storms. These could produce a lot of MCS's and maybe some large severe weather outbreaks this Spring. A long way off and a topic for another day. Jeremy

ok thanks Jeremy...I hate rain....

Drexel needs snow!!!!!!!!!! *************** Chances on Tues/Thurs Jeremy

Cold........ick!

Just dropping in to say hello!  I'm going to go out and enjoy the heat wave we're experiencing...currently 50.7 degrees in my corner of Olathe.  The kids are happy to finally be able to go out and ride their bikes for a while without the extreme cold.  

Have a great Sunday!  

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My daughters were outside for a bit today and enjoyed the sunshine!

Jeremy

If somebody can get me one of those snow machines then you might be able to save NE Kansas and SE Nebraska from becoming Lake Missouri

I know there is a possibility of rain/ some thinder Monday. Do you have an idea when? I have to work and would like to leave the dogs outside but if there's even a remote possibility of a clap of thunder in Lenexa before 1500 when my daughter gets home from school, my lab will freak . For some reason my golden retriever could care less..she just wants to hunt squirrels no matter what the weather.

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I think you'd be fine through that time frame.  If there is rain it may be later. 

Jeremy

'another meteorologist' says the lrc is not a proven measure and has not been proven , the prediction of a harsh winter is false, no more below zero weather witha domintating pacific flow and snow less than 5 inches

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We can't control what others forecast or believe to be correct.

Jeremy

LOL why is someone coming on here and posting as mike Thompson?.....

he's like......not right much...
lol

theres not many people on here yet...

And I do believe the LRC can be proven.
As for the harsh winter weather...its coming......

hey whats the news on the thursday storm?...

and any snow Tuesday?.....

a 5 inch snow would satisfy me at this point, and brent, im lovin the snow machine idea, I think we need to make a trip up to weston and borrow a few of their snow machines.

here is the current conditions from drexel-  Snow deprived

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Snow chances exist this week...best chance to the north for Tuesday...and maybe Thursday too.

Jeremy

Jeremy, whats the latest on the snow on Thursday?

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I'll update things hopefully in the next hour.

Jeremy

I predict that we will see more below zero temperatures this winter. So far, we have alternated between the active Pacific pattern and the more amplified meridional flow pattern.

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I anticipate one more below zero night at KCI.

Jeremy

Yea, it seems like that pattern will continue for the rest of the winter.

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The long term longwaves are set and that is where storms like to go.  Gary mentioned this with his winter outlook in November.  Now we have the advantage of knowing the cycle too.

Jeremy

Jeremy--I am sure you will update soon but within the December cycle starting on December 8th there was a series of storms which finally culminated into the ice storm.  I see the storm for Thursday but then a semi warm-up---Is the cycle slowing a bit and spitting out the storms a little more spread apart for this go around?  On the models for the frist full week of Feb I still see quite a bit of storms so I wonder if during that week more artic air is brought down?  Thanks for your work and all the weather team's work.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

I haven't done the in depth comparison back to December but a quick glance shows that everything is on schedule.  We talked about this Thursday weeks ago before any else even began to consider it.  The storms after this should come pretty frequently.

Gary will update the LRC in the blog tomorrow or Tuesday and I would pose the LRC questions to him.

Jeremy