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Gary:

Good luck on the radio!!! I used to love listening to you when I commuted into KC!! Well, once again, I have the "Get Smart" syndrome!!! Missed it by that much and posted in the previous blog!! LOL-I will just leave it there. It is going to be incredibly fascinating following everything this week-a great example of just how wild our weather can be here!!!

Have a great day

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I will go and read your other blog in a second.  Maybe you say something there about your ban on the models, which is actually good for your mental health.  Have a great day.

Gary

Okay, why is it warmer up here in St. Joseph then Kansas City. At 6am it was already up to 59. I am completly in shock over the temperature.  I wonder just how warm we will get.

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There will be enough clouds to keep you below 70, but keep us updated.

Gary

Assuming the arctic air does come down as you think it will, it won't stick around as long as that last blast did, will it?  Please say "no".  :)

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Right now, it appears it will come in, move out, & come back again.  It may get in here for a week or so, but it isn't showing this yet.

Gary

Wow...59 in St. Joe at 6:30?  I've got 42 in Maryville at 7:00am...

I can virtually guarantee a big snowstorm for northwest Missouri on Thursday.  How?  Well, I've got meetings in Trenton, Cameron, and back in Maryville that day!  :)

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We will put this factor into our forecasting equation.

Gary

Ahh..the fun part of the cycle.  It will be very interesting to watch the next two weeks.  Sure, the storms will come - a couple of them showing up so far, so...ok.  But when?

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Scott,

You are so funny!  I know where you are going.

Gary

What seems to be such an innocent statement now is understood for its hidden meaning.  LOL

I find it interesting this cold streak will be right on track.  To the exact day?  No...we use a cycle, not a crystal ball.  LOL.  

But within a day or so of expected arrival.

All very interesting to watch....

;-)

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Scott,

It certainly is fascinating as our forecasts are verifying.

Gary

Happy Birthday Brett! My birthday is Wednesday. Wish I got today's weather, or Thursday's. I just get the cold with no snow on my birthday looks like. If I can't have snow, I would rather get the warmth like today! Enjoy your birthday!

Happy Birthday Brett!

What is the difference between a short wave and a long wave trough?  And how about a little snow for the south side of the metro this time through.  Any takers?

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Rod,

On the map with the shortwave on it, you can see the trough that extends north all the way up into Canada.  This is a long wave trough with shortwaves running through it.

Gary

Happy Birthday Brett.    And let the fun begin..

Bill
Grandview

Happy Birthday to Brett!  A very windy 51 degrees in Olathe...Pulled out the lighter coats for the kids to take to school.  Very strange!  

"On the map with the shortwave on it, you can see the trough that extends north all the way up into Canada.  This is a long wave trough with shortwaves running through it."

So let me see if I follow.  The shortwaves will move around the longwave as it pertains to a particular trough.  As that mean trough moves, the longwave moves as well, as well the shortwaves through it, is that correct?

Not to be confused with the long term longwaves as defined within the LRC that indicates a persistent trough location for a given season, is that correct?

So here is one more question.  The shortwaves will run around the axis of the longwave, right?  Or to better say, as the trough dips, the shortwaves will dig around the axis of the trough or longwave and follow it up the right side...

Is this an accurate statement?

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Scott,

You are very close!  The shortwaves are rotating through the longwave trough.  All of the shortwaves in the longwave trough will carve it out or lift it out.  A big longwave trough can eventually be a huge upper level low at the end of its life cycle.  The shortwave dropping to the bottom of the longwave trough, near Kansas on Tuesday morning, is carving the long wave to its bottom point. 

And, this shortwave, or vort max is showing where the "long term" longwave trough is located.  Because remember, this was a huge trough near the west coast just yesterday, but it is now moving, with the shortwaves responding to this season's pattern.

Gary

Thanks, I see it now.  Just trying to keep up!  Bring on the snow.

Okay so apparently the weather channel and weatherbug both were malfunctioning this morning. I kept checking it this morning because I didn't believe it was 59 outside. I notice now at 8:25 the temperature is 48.  I'm assuming something at Rosecrans wasn't working this morning since that is where temperature readings are taken normally. Interesting...

i FINALLY GOT A DOG NAMEDFLASH!

anyway i amtelling u that 3-5 inches are possible with the thursday storm. That added with some frezing rain will cause damaging conditions for ppl driving.

Zach

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Zach,

It is certainly possible.  This type of storm this season has produced the 1 to 4 inch snowfall amounts.  By tonight it should start looking the way it is going to look on Thursday.   So, give us another day or so to pin this down.

Gary

Happy 25th birthday Brett!!!  :)

Happy Birthday Brett!!!  Enjoy it!!!

Keri

sounds fun!!
so far we are having freakishly gusty winds here......they are really strong!

I would estimate gusts close to 40 already!

when will these record breaking snows start showing up you had thought possible a month ago do any of these storms have that potential thanks

I know it's early but what are you thinking as far as timing for Thursday's storm?  The hourly weather graph at NWS says Thursday morning through Thursday night.  I was thinking the team's forecast was saying more of a Thursday night into Friday event.

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We will try to time the storm out soon. It appears to be a late Thursday into Thursday night event. But, a lot of questions still remain.  So, let's give it another day.

Gary

I'm strapped in for the wild ride this week. :)

Happy Birthday Brett!

It seems as though I need to plan some vacation (after spinning out on 169 the last storm, I'm not ready to drive in this so soon).  For the Thursday event, I know you still need to pin it down, but right now when are you thinking it may start, and what do you think it might do to the Friday commute?

So after we clear the next two weeks, or so, do you think our big snow events are coming to a close, or is there one more round?  I remember hearing a few months ago, when most people predicted the winter (not just locally, but nationally, too), I thought most said warmer and drier than normal.  What happened to that?

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We don't like to go into any specifics on timing and amounts three days out.  Many storm systems will take a different track farther south or north.  The timing can change by 12 to 24 hours when it is three days away.  At this point you should know there will be a storm producing snow somewhere between Tulsa, Oklahoma and Omaha, Nebraska.  Will it take a southern track, a northern track, or come right through KC?  We just don't know yet.  If it acts like all of the other storm systems this season then we will have a few inches of snow near by.

Gary

I'm not sure about KCI, but I know here in Central Kansas, we will likely end up finishing January below average with precipitation. This sure does not seem possible because the ground is completely saturated here with the melting going on, but alot of that moisture is from the very wet december and snow that we could not get rid of completely from December and January even! I have a hunch February will go back to above normal precipitation for most around our region and its great to see this very active pattern setting up for a few weeks probably. Somewhere probably is going to get BLASTED with a huge snow in the next 7-12 days with that sharp temperature contrast and a series of storms setting up, Just don't get angry with me or any other meteorologists if it happens to be in Nebraska and not in your backyard!

Gary, I was also wondering if you take phone calls from spotters in the Kansas City TV market during severe weather at this television station and what the procedures are. I think me and my spotter friends are thinking about expanding our horizons this season as we are quite equipped, but we still aren't daring to probably go much south of I-70 into Missouri though! If this sounds interesting let me know and I'll send an email your way.

Jon

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Jon,

Yes, please send me an email today:  Lezak@nbcactionnews.com

We had such a wet December and October, that the ground will stay saturated most of the winter with it being so cold. Some wet storms are still likely soon.

I will look for your email when I get into work this afternoon. 

Gary

All I know is that after looking at 4 different weather sites (and not the local tv ones) that every single one of them has 7 out of the next 10 days with chances of rain/sleet/snow or something (and yes that inlcudes the minimal rain chance today).

However I was really surprised to see the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of next week already at 60% chances.  Gary isn't that pretty high for still a week out?

But it certainly looks like we are getting ready to go through a couple of weeks of craziness.

Dec 10th, 11th ice storm plus 54 days is Feb 2 & 3!  Looks like a fun roller coaster ride.

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It depends on who is doing the forecast.   I firmly believe that a chance should not be as high as 60% 7 days out.  It will almost always end up on day 8 or day 9, or day 6 if it is going to happen.

Gary

"I thought most said warmer and drier than normal.  What happened to that?"

Nationwide, this may be feasible.  Only after the winter will this be verified.

From data from KMCI, December was wetter and cooler than normal, and for this month...

Per the LRC [and other methods]- and against the others - January will end up cooler than normal, and likely wetter.  

I remember hearing how January would be much warmer than normal [national/local - not here].  False.  We had some warm days, but some bitterly cold days.  More cold than warm, thus the colder than average temps.

I know we have three more days of January, but as of yesterday, the mean temperature was exactly at mean.  I am going to bet the next three days are colder than average opposed to warmer as average.

Throw ENSO [La Nina/El Nino] out the window for this part of the country.  The CPC should be ashamed of itself for putting out these broadbrushed graphics.  Even in an earlier blog Brett put out, I showed how many parts of the country that should be experiencing extreme conditions based on the forecast are actually experiencing the exact opposite.

I am all for ENSO and how it works in the Pacific.  I am out on the extrapolation of its impacts to sensible weather.

Silly CPC.

Scott maybe CPC means Can't Predict Center

Scott.  I will take that bet concerning January temperatures at KCI.  All of the longrange winter precipitataion forecasts I saw were remarkably similar, including CPC, AccuWeather and Gary.  And if you look at composite radar anomalies for the last two months, they all look pretty good, except maybe for the west coast.

Are the wind gusts suppose to be higher down south then up north were you all are? Good grief...the winds have been howling down here since about 3am or so.
My girls enjoyed the nice weekend and getting to play outside and ride their bikes!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Scott and Gary...

Please speak English!  LOL, you guys and your "weatherspeak" are killing my brain!  It's like when you eat ice cream too fast...yeeeeeouch!

Actually, this blog has been such a learning experience for me.  Thanks to all of you for your input, it sure helps me figure things out!

Happy Birthday Brett!!!!

I have been looking forward to a wild week of weather all month!!

and I consider 50 mph winds on day with a high of 65 then dropping to the 20's for highs the next day with snow!...and then a snowstorm 2 days  later,... as wild!!!!

I am glad you are upping the chance of snow on thursday...I have a few friends that want to know when its ever going to snow down here...and I told them that there will likely be snow on thursday.......am I right?.....

hey gary when you say its the strongest artic front of the year do you mean we will be seeing coulder weather then we had last week?

yeah I was wondering about that.......unless it gets to 0 at night...and the high is 13...then its not the strongest of the year...I did have a hard time believing that

It may be the most sharply contrasted front...but not the strongest...

I have a flight scheduled for Thursday afternoon to Las Vegas, will I be able to fly out or should i change my flight to earlier in the day?

Thank you

Tony

Actually, scott, much of what CentralOP calls the "real midwest" has been substantially warmer than normal this January. It's been cooler especially in SW Iowa, SE Nebraska, NE Kansas and NW Mo.

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/month.tdev.gif

we have hit 62 in south kc by Banaster Mall

Will the snow on the ground from Thursday if it is significant 3 to 5 in. with a cold Friday be enough to keep cold temperatures in place on Saturday and Sunday to make the storm event next Monday and Tuesday a primary snow event versus a rain/snow event?

Oftentimes the models do not take into consideration the snow on the ground and the refrigerator effect that it has.  Also, keep in mind that we still have frost and the ground is snow flies tonight it will likely be to accumulate.      

lets hope not we dont need any more snow we need to warm up

RDub,
Actually, the Midwest core has been colder than average. I agree with that. The Midwest core would include Iowa, south Wisconsin, south Minnesota, and northern Illinois. The northwoods of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan have been experiencing warmer than normal temperatures. Ohio and Indiana look above normal as well according to the map. KC is a Central Plains city, or you could make the argument that it is a lower Midwest city.
The areas of the Midwest core hardly ever gets the kind of warm temperatures that KC will experience today. Most of the record highs in the Midwest and Upper Midwest are around 60F or lower.

I am looking forward to the colder air. Temperatures this warm just feel very strange in January.
The 12Z GFS does not look as great for heavier snow on Thursday. The best chance for decent accmulation looks to be along and south of I-70 according to this model run.

ATL 2 KCMO,
Enjoy the warm air today. It is January and it will be turning much colder tommorrow.

Rdub, I am going off of the forecasts for this area - call it what you will - midwest, southern plains etc.  LOL...semantics.

Specifically, I am referencing KMCI data.

Jimmymac, for this area, we are above average this Winter in precipitation.  Last I saw we were to be about normal.  I am including December and what we know of January.   If we are to come out normal, then Feb will need to be pretty dry as December was pretty wet.  Its possible, but unlikely in my opinion based what I think the cycle is going to bring.

We will see.

57 degrees with a gust recorded at 10:44 am of 42 MPH at 130th and State Avenue in KCK.

Bryan

Scott,
In my opinion Kansas City is a Central Plains city with a few extra trees, but I am sure others would disagree with me.

in my opintion kansas city is a southern city beacause if you split the country in half the lind would cut kansas city in half also Missouri is historyly considered to be a southern state dating back to the civl war

im from atlanta and most pepole down thier consider missouri part of the south

Gary or Brett
I have a flight scheduled for Thursday afternoon to Las Vegas, will I be able to fly out or should i change my flight to earlier in the day?

Thank you

Tony

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Tony,

It is just too early to worry about it.  Wait until Tuesday and let's see what we think.

Gary

if you are north of the river you are closer to canada if you are south of the river you are closer to the golf of mexcico

Happy Birthday Brett!!

Hope you don't grow too old.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRENT!!!

So, I am really starting to like what the models are suggesting.  I hope that the storm becomes even more amplified for Thrusday!!! At least  the models are suggesting that it will be cold enough to support snow!!! I really hope we get blasted with a SNOW STORM I am really tired of just looking at brown grass, If I had the money... I would paint the grass white, so at least it looks a little bit like snow LOL :P I really want snow?  I think I got that point across LOL :P  What do you think about the newest data?  

If I'm in the westbound lanes of I-70 I'm closer to Canada, but if I'm in the eastbound lanes I'm closer to Mexico.

Happy Bday Brent!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRETT!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRETT!!  GOOD LUCK WITH THE POLAR PLUNGE THIS COMING WEEKEND!!  BRRRRRRRRRR!!!

"Normal" precip amounts for Dec - Feb are so low, it doesn't take much to get above average. Average is only about 1.1 inches of liquid per month during the winter.

Happy Birthday Brett!

Rdub, you could argue that perception to many other things as they relate to normal.

Yes, the precip amounts are low, so yes..it wouldn't take much to move it..but as an "average", those precip amounts do not come often as it is not "normal" for it to occur.

Look at how other global indicies are very sensitive to "normal".  SST, GW, teleconnections and other mechinisms in the climate are very much tied to even the slightest deviations.

But to this end, I agree in a general sense.  I typically apply a deviation amount to normal to signfify what is really above or below normal.  Unfortunately, it is not "normal" for everyone to do this.

LOL

Oh..and Rdub...actually, the liquid total is closer to 1.4 inches.  And it does not factor in snowfall at all.  Factoring in snowfall at a 10 to 1 ratio, add on another half inch of liquid per month.

So..about 2 inches a month of precip as recorded in liquid would be "normal"

I got this information from the NWS CLM data for KMCI.

But yes...one big storm can make a big difference..but then again, I think in past blogs it was discussed that large storms really don't happen all that often in large amounts of precip. in the winter time here in KC.

Gary - do you have a very rough, best-guess estimate as to the timing on Thursday/Friday?  Like day time Thursday, or overnight -- just wondering if I should cancel Friday driving plans.  I won't hold you to it!  :)

Happy Birthday Brett nad I DO hope you grow too old!

Scott- It really doesn't happen that often when Kansas City gets a large powerful storm system in the winter. The last significant storm I can recall is the 2002 Ice Storm that struck the region. However I think it is all relative, I would guess because a storm big to me may be insignificant to someone elese who didn't have to deal with the storm. I hope that makes sense.

Bryan

I almost forgot as of 12:40 PM here at 130th and State Ave it is 61 degrees with sustained winds of 23 MPH. Nice enough to me to open the windows and air out the house today!

Bryan

I almost forgot as of 12:40 PM here at 130th and State Ave it is 61 degrees with sustained winds of 23 MPH. Nice enough to me to open the windows and air out the house today!

Bryan

54 degrees temperature difference within 24 hours in Montana.  That's what I call a cold front.

Dave                            

happy birthday brett

what do you think tomorrows snow will be like north of the river towards platte city

Is there an estimate on when Tuesday's snow will come and go?  

I'm not sure if its safe to trust in the temperature, according to weather channel it is 69 outside. Its possible since the sun made a brief appearance earlier. I haven't had chance to step outside to see what it felt like. ************* I'm 99.9% sure the St. Joe ob is wrong. It is 65+ southeast of KC in spots. But not in St. Joe.

Scott, I don't know where you got your info, but monthly precipitation totals DO include the liquid equivalent for snow and ice.  If they didn't, they would be meaningless.

This shows KCI getting 1.15 in Jan, 1.31 in Feb, and 1.64 in December. And I am positive it includes melted down snow...look at International Falls, MN. I'm pretty sure they don't average 0.84 inches of rain in January.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/nrmlprcp.html

From the Midwest Regional Climate Center...

"The amount of precipitation listed on a climate report is the Liquid Equivalent Precipitation. This value includes the melted amount of any frozen precipitation (e.g., snow, sleet) that may have fallen in addition to any rain. Why is this frozen precipitation collected and then melted before being measured? The density of liquid water is constant; however, the density of frozen precipitation can vary greatly. One inch of "heavy" snow contains more water than one inch of "light" snow. Measuring the liquid equivalent of frozen precipitation can indicate the actual amount of water that fell, regardless of the type of precipitation. These values can also later be used in calculating ground water issues when snowmelt occurs."

2:01 PM here at 130th and State Avenue and we are now sitting at 62 degrees with a south wind sustained at 28MPH highest gust today is now at 45MPH recorded at 1:19PM.

Bryan

Rdub, I stand corrected.  You are correct.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/f6.php?wfo=eax

"Total  precipitation for the day to the nearest hundredth of an inch. This includes all forms of precipitation, both liquid and water equivalent of any snow or ice that occurred (T = Trace, some precipitation fell but not enough to measure). "

The TWC temp. thing of of it's rocker;)  But my digital thermometer was reading low 60's!!  and the wind... MAN IT IS HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH, that is a bit of an event in of its self!!,  I can hear it whooshing over the house now.  that is one heck of a front stepping out side it does remind me of severe weather season, with the wind howling and the warm sort of moist feel in the air.    Man the rumors that get spread about the weather after a major event happens, the talk in St. Joe, about the Farmer's Almanac predicting another ice storm for Feb. had even made it on to the local news station up here...   LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Oh well, it looks like the fun is here, although up here it never felt like it really left, as I stated yesterday since December we had had something wintry in terms of precip. for almost every week even in the less stormy part of the pattern.

Would it be safe to say that I am going to plow snow sometime between thursday morning and friday morning?? I hope it is a lot of snow so it will be more fun. My geuss at this point for accumilations (with no experiance) is 4"-6". Why I am even making a geuss is beyond me. But what he heck.

Happy Birthday Brett!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Hello Gary, what does it look like as far as snow and snow accumulations tomorrow?

Rdub,

So, this helps me figure something else out.  Based on the 18-20 inches of snow average from the metro, reducing it at an average of 8:1…then about 2.3 inches of the total liquid equivalent of the about 4 inches total for the season is snow.  Factoring in the occasional ice and sleet, about half of the precip we get in the winter is snow and the other half is liquid.

This is interesting.  The average mean temperatures for each of these months averaged at 30.4 degrees [only Feb mean temp was slightly above freezing].

Here is something to ponder…if the mean temp is below freezing, how can only half of the precipitation be frozen?  Are we subjected to more than our fair share of WAA due to our proximity to where surface lows come through?  

Gary – any ideas?