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Scott, following on your post at the end of last blog....I wouldn't use an 8 to 1 ratio for snow in KC. 10 to 1 is typical but that's probably too low. During the cold powdery snows ratios are more like 15 to 1 or more.

Second, monthly average temp is not a good indication of what the temperature is when precip is falling. Often there is warm air sucked into storms so air temperatures are higher during precip events. Plus, we rarely (if ever) get anything when the temperature is below 15 or 20.

Gary,

What is the record low pressure--just how close are we getting?  Also, 29.34 is getting near hurricane strength, what is that in millibars?

54 in Rapid City and 12 in Montana ------ that is strong!!!

I don't know what the record for KC's lowest pressure is. Hurricane Rita was 26.43, record lowest for the Atlantic basin.

1000 mb = 29.53 inches of mercury.

any chance at a thunderstorm tonight?

is thursday's system moving further south,but if the lrc proves it should move further north compated to the gfs...

My temp. here in Peculiar has fallen from a high of 64 to its current reading of 59 with strong west winds. This is going to be a wild ride!!!!  Looking forward to it

I am moving this friday from KS to TN. Do you think the roads and weather will be safe?  

Gary,
I am moving from KS to TN this friday do you think the roads and weather will be safe to do so.

Hello, I was just wondering if there is any chance of thunderstorms and severe storms between tonight and tomorrow morning in the Kansas City area?

Thank you

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It doesn't look like it. 

Gary

Well according to the latest GFS its the southern areas getting the most snow ( KC SOUTH ), but if the models do the samething as before I expect the storm to move north.  Its still 3 days out so the models will change extremely,  JUST LOOK AT THE NAM,  I am tossing this run out (NAM).

Cut Bank, MT had a WIND CHILL this morning of -52F so this front is quite strong. The core of the coldest air will move over the Midwest CORE and Northwoods, generally where the temps are near 50F or lower today.
The thursday storm will likely trend further north and impact the same areas that have been hit so far this season.

I'm alittle sad :( no far out guesses as to Thursdays accum. An unamed topeka station said 3-6 inches on air a day or two ago for thursdays storm. Give me someting , just alittle taste to know what kinda day I'm gonna have at EMS :)

No, no, no t'storms or severe storms around here. Look at the map Gary posted. Thunderstorms are way far south, over Ark/La/Tex area.

NAM has stunk for storms all winter, hasn't it?

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Rdub,

It has been a very bad model, especially three days out.

Gary

Here is the list of record low barometric pressure readings by state:

http://www.extremeweatherguide.com/records.asp#United%20States%20Barometric%20Pressure%20Records

I know, it's early, but what are the models indicating for next Friday (Feb. 8)?

Guess I am not overly wowed by the current pressure...I will wow when it drops into the 28s.

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Scott,

You are a tropical weather freak aren't you? 

Gary

Gary--I agree with you on the movement of the storm.  It is so weird several sources in and around Topeka kind of played up the storm last night and this morning but are now down playing the storm saying it will stay Interstate 35 and south with the heaviest snow.  We are sitting with 21.4 to 23.6 inches around Topeka.  So it could miss us but we will see.  How come the big swings in temp?  Looks like rain for Monday but maybe (this is fairy tale land) if we get cold air in here middle to end of the next week with the 4th storm maybe more snow!  Keep on tracking Thursday's snow.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

Yes, we are just sticking with what we believe will happen with this storm, and back to a more northern track. If it looks like a southern track then by Tuesday night or Wednesday we can make this decision, but the best way to go is with what has happened this season

Gary

The 18Z GFS looks good for snow on Thurs, especially along and south of I-70. I saw about .30-.70 inches projected liquid equivalent on average. I would think a solid 3-5 inches could be likely as my perliminary estimate.
CentralOP

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CentralOP,

Yes, if this is correct.  We will wait another day before making any predictions on exact amounts.

Gary

Gary, how much snow do you think north of the river will get on Thursday?

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It's too early!

Gary

Indeed I am...probably why I only really know pressure readings by mb.  LOL

I get excited when we get into the 980s.  I love to see extratropical storms get into the 960s...that is what I am talking about!

For the central CONUS, I guess I can kinda get accepted in the low 990s..but that will only tide me over until tropical season.

Gotta admit..seeing 890s is the most exciting!

Jeremy - if you are lurking...remember I took the over on .25 of the first projections for Thursday's storm.  ;-)

We shall see.  LOL....how about a Coke if I am right?

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I may want in on this bet for Thursday?  What are the details?

Gary

I understand, it is too early to make a snowfall forcast for Thursday.

It is usally oblivious when the preasure lowers (to me).
i get a really bad headache. I wish it was thursday really badly.
I want a lot of snow, do you think there could be places that get a foot of snow?

great weather cast Gary! Tommorrow will be an exciting weather day!

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Thanks for the feedback!  I hope I wasn't too excited.  Tonight at 10 PM we will try to go into more detail!

Gary

some sprinkles in Lawrence. Just enough to use the wipers a few times on the way home!

Brian

Oh yeah!!!! I hear the snow will be south of I-70!!!!

finally...its definitely out turn!!

please say its true Gary!!!

Don't get too excited Brent-how many time's have we heard this before this winter?

yeah I'm with you, braysmama......

Gary, are we talking sustained winds of 50 MPH or gusts. If And how long are these strong winds suppose to last tomorrow? Will the winds die down after 5-6 or continue into the early morning hours?

Guess I should clarify 5-6 pm on Tuesday evening or the early morning hours before the winds die down tomorrow?

recent experience from this winter should tell you that once you reach the 60hr mark for the gfs the storm starts trending north.  i wouldnt get excited about the storm going south until we are 48-60hrs out.  just my thoughts...

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Murph,

Exactly!

Gary

farmgirl:

I think Gary said 50 to possibly 55 pmh gusts...

Gary, you hear anything about the esp music yet?.....lol

I'm with you here in H'ville Brent.  Maybe we should get everyone to do a snow dance around the town square!

On another note;  I find it fascinating that so many of these systems seem to obey arbitrary lines such as the state line to the south of KC.  So many times I've seen storms come up to the state line and then just disappear.  I don't think there's a geographic feature there that would cause that.

Gary...it seems that everone is talking about the thursday's snowstorm hitting the southern parts of the viewing area....whats the likelyhood of that?...I know you are probably anxious to hope that the storm will track north so that the city can get some snows...but from the current data...it looks like areas to the south will be on the edge of the significant snow totals.

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Brent,

As we discussed, some of the models have been showing the snowstorm south of our entire viewing area.  But, we will continue to go with a farther north solution until we get a clear indication of it going too far south.  There have been three or four storm systems that some meteorologists bit on the south solution, but it ended up over the usual spots up north. So, let's just wait another day and see how the models trend.

Gary

good news for you guys down south who are snow hungry, this storm looks like it will be widespread all across the area.

I'm extremely snowhungry....

1-3" Thursday.

Tomorrow looks like a wild ride. I have to go to Chillicothe, MO for a funeral tomorrow. And it doesn't look to pleasant. The winds tonite here north of Lawson are howling. I went into the barn when I got home and I thought the doors were going to blow out. But we are knee deep in mud and maybe the wind will dry us out a little. In the barn lot I am up to my knees in mud..YUCK!! Some freezing temps would help out our mud situation. I am watching closely the storm for Thursday. I hope it's a goody!! Thanks for the great forcast and keeping everyone up to date. I really enjoy this blog so much and I am still learning a great deal. Thanks to everyone on the weather team and the bloggers for being great teachers....nwmissourigal aka Kathy

I'm thinking 3-5 inches on Thursday.

I really have this gut (LRC) feeling that this is going to track further north.....

you all have had your snow up north!...

I want this one to trend south!

Gary, I've got to fly to Baltimore on Friday morning and will be back on Sunday evening.  Any thoughts on either day - here or there?

Anyone checked out the Wind Advisory text and forecast discussion for Kansas City issued by Mr. Bookbinder? It was quite impressive discussion. Should be a wild ride tomorrow for sure! I am in hopes that this snowstorm starts to move more north over time, but based on the LRC this should begin to happen as we get closer to the event.

Bryan

they just issued a wind advisory.....I think it should be called a wind warning for winds that high!! yikes....

I sure hope I see some dang snow tomorrow....I am snow deprived....

a few flurries will suffice.

Brenton

Yesturday in Glasgow, Montana it was 42F. Right now it is -27F and feels like -61F!

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Wow! That is a huge contrast!

Gary

I take it this will be the sharpest contrast we have seen for some time eh?

I have been telling my friends that even though it was really nice today....watch out tomorrow!....lol they will feel it then...

In Olathe we will get 3-5 inches of snow. I will do any bets with anyperson. I just got a Austrailan Shepard named Flash. I will bet anything for this storm

you want to bet that Olathe will get 3 to 5 inches?...lol

theres nothing I like more than betting on snow totals!!!
rofl

i agree chfs327, i think that almost everyone will see 3-5 inches.

Gary-

Any new blog coming tonight? Even a brief updated one?

Bryan

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Bryan,

We may do one soon. 

Gary

Gary, a question.  I know you have had difficulty convincing other mereorologists of the LRC.  How about the persistent longwave troughs and ridges?  Is that commonly accepted in the field?  Thanks.

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Jimmy,

Again, this is unique to my theory that "long term" longwave troughs and ridges set up early in the season and then they exist throughout the winter and spring months.  This is something I may show even more in my next presentation.  But, this is still not accepted yet either.

Gary

the highly disregarded nam came out and has the storm south of us with kc on the northern edge lol..waiting on gfs and see where it's trending.

Gary,

By looking at the extended forecast it looks like I will make it out of MCI on Saturday morning flying into Denver?  Or is there still a chance for the bad weather to be here?

 Good Evening Gary, I know you said an inch of snow is possible tomorrow, what are you think accumulation on pavement, travel problems, Will Thurs storm linger into Friday? I notice you have just on Thursday

Weve seen the models do this same exact thing before....they issued Heavy Snow Warnings down here and what do youknow the snow went north i see this happening again

Brent I disagree with ur statement. I also see that a Pats fan is agreeing with me.

I will be at The royals homeopener But i will bet anything with the 3-5 inches of snow.

will it be safe to fly tomorrow because of the strong winds?

I think Thurs is going to dig a bit more, but watch the vort come back up through Joplin - again.

While I think the southern areas may get some snow, I am going to go with the mean positioning between the pattern we have seen and the models.

A bit north of the models and a bit south of what has been evident.  This vort looks a bit stronger to me than the rest, and you don't have as much of the northern stream pulling on it.

The 850 low looks to be in the right place, as also the 700 shows some nice features and location as well.

Temps look good.

Hmmm...just need it a smidgen north..not much.

This seems to be an exciting week. : )
Hopefully Columbia will not get missed.

Bookbinder is getting after it with this update...wow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Scott,I agree Bookbinder really did hit tomorrow hard it seems tomorrow is going to be a slap in the face instead of eating dirt from oklahoma we will be eating dirt from nebraska.lol

gary,

i have a feeling that this front is going to blow through quicker than anticipated.  i am thinking a 3-5am arrival and passage...because of that we could see a longer period of snow...obviously it wont be a record breaker or anything, but with the wind i think it will be a sight to see.

murph

I just came in with the dogs a little while ago, and the clouds over head are really zipping along.  I'm curious, is there anyway to tell what the wind speed is up there?  

Be sorry to see this mild streak gone, it's so nice to not have to wear a coat and bundle up just to take the dogs out.