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Good Evening Gary, I know you said an inch is possible, are you leaning toward inch or dusting, any travel problems? Will Thurs storm linger into Friday? I will be watching at 10

The NWS has some rather strong wording tonight as I posted in the previous blog.

Scott,I wonder if we will be under some type of winter wx advisory tomorrow with that snow blowing around with that strong wind.

OOOH I love new data

Timing is everything.  We already have a wind advisory.  If not much snow, not sure they will jump to winter wx....

Blizzard warnings are up for extreme north east missouri,eastern Iowa and western Illinois expecting up to 50 mph winds and 1-5 inches of snow there.

yes they do have strong wording Scott.  I read that forcast update very strong wording. Tomorrow is going to be an exciting weather day. :) Maybe not a huge snow maker but surely a show of mother natures brute strength! LOVE IT :)

Scott you are correct.  That is some rather harsh wording in the updated forecast discussion by the NWS.  You don't normally see them use exclamation points and words like plowing, astounding,  QUITE HONESTLY HAVE NEVER SEEN SOMETHING OF THIS MAGNITUDE THIS FAR EAST...  and slap in the face all in one Forecasst Discussion update.

I'm so not happy about this.  I need to figure out how to put a dome over my house so that while you are all busy dealing with the snow and cold, I'm hanging out by the pool, where it's always sunny and 80 degrees.  

If n.e. Mo. is expecting 1-5" what should we expect?

Barbara, its gotta hit the ground first!

Greg...I just don't want the cold!!!!!   Brrrrrr!  I'm cold just thinking about it!

looks like the models are a smidge farther north for thursday if you compared these runs with the runs before lol

North is definitly the place to be if you want a lot of snow this year!!

Gary,

     I was at a website which I will not name and was just going around comparing forcasts for Marceline and they had only a couple flurries in the forcast for Thursday...Also they have a 15 day forcast and I was looking through it and saw that they have things like snow much of the time, fluffy snow, and snow at varying rates...I dont see how they get these forcasts, and at more than 7 days days out you already know it will not be correct...I personally dont think day to day forcasts should be put out for people to see especially when you know it is going to change!

What are your opinions on this??

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If you do show a 15 day forecast, you must explain that a storm may change by one or two days when you get out to the longer range!

Gary
 

I'll name it you had to be at accuweather lol

I'll name it you had to be at accuweather lol

AHHH!! I'M STUTTER COMMENTING AGAIN!

Good guess!!.......lol

Gary,

By looking at the extended forecast it looks like I will make it out of MCI on Saturday morning flying into Denver?  Or is there still a chance for the bad weather to be here?

Gary, this is a pretty strong cold front blowing in, but really in the seven day, temps don't seem to be too far from normal. In other words, I can live with this! Hey O.U. pulled one out tonight! Why does Jack hate the Cats so much?

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The Sooners shouldn't have struggled so much against OSU, but it was bedlam.

Gary

If it would only be in the low 30s tomorrow when this front move through what do you think the temperatures would be by afternoon???...jus something curious that came to my head.

I missed the forecast... what time is the snow expected to start and stop in KC north to Liberty?

I guess the active pattern does not include much arctic air for any sustained periods. I looked at the 0Z GFS and it looks like the pattern will stay very progressive with the Gulf of Alaska low and the ridge alternating positions every couple of days. The true cold air looks to stay further north again.

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Yes, but in December we didn't know it was going to stay cold through New Years, so let's just see how it circulated down here.  There is a lot of Arctic air across most of Canada.

Gary

WOW, tomorrow is going to be interesting, another thing that might have to be considered for up here where we had the bad ice is that there are still a lot of loose branches around on area trees, we still have some on our roof! So might have to be careful tomorrow, well the front is really bearing down;)

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Nick,

Let us know if you see any snow.

Gary

Gary:

Good change in the air morning to you this morning sir!!! As of 4:30 A.M., the front is coming through Lawrence-the 10Z surface charts show it right on top of us and our winds have already switched to the west-you can just smell/feel the difference this morning!!! Man is this exciting!!!! Unleash the hounds!!!!

A couple random musings this morning that as always I hope make sense:

1.  Today is going to be an incredible/fascinating weather day in and of itself-it is already 32 in Concordia, Kansas as of 4:30 this morning and the teens are not that far behind-just an incredible front. It may not snow all that much but snow isn’t everything (did I really just say that!!! LOL)-let’s face it, with the winds and temperature changes today, this is going to be quite the weather day!!!!


2. Water vapor imagery this morning: If I am seeing things correctly, there looks to be a spin developing out in East Central Colorado-it appears the upper level vort. max is now developing-will be interesting to see how strong this really gets and if the models have handled  this correctly. Also, all that Pacific moisture streaming into the Baja of California and into the SW U.S-wow!! Finally, you can see Thursday’s storm crashing down the coast of California this morning


3. Thursday: I did indeed take a quick look this morning at the 0Z runs but I am so focused on today!! However, it appears that the GFS is much further north than the Euro for sure. Looking at just the models in and of themselves it appears that both are predicting a pretty large area of High Pressure sitting from Minnesota back into Pennsylvania that is somewhat suppressing the low; however, the 0z GFS has these different than it did at 18Z so the changes are subtly happening. I think that on one run out of the next 3, the GFS and Euro are going to over compensate and are going to forecast this low to track over the top of Kansas City before finally honing in on a solution. This has been stated on the BLOG but to me, one has to follow the LRC and where long range troughs have set up this year-this storm will indeed fall into place and track across Joplin or just a bit south.

4.  Three being said, I do believe in my humble little hobbyist mind that we are seeing the hints on the models of a set up Thursday that gives the whole area a decent snow event. This is taking on the classic signs: a high pressure to the North that is funneling down the cold air but not too far to suppress things real bad and a developing piece of energy in the southern jet with abundunt moisture available-a classic combination for here. Of course, in this year’s pattern WAA has done a number as it always does here so that could be one fly in the ointment but I just think that this time, we may hit the jack pot and the whole area may see a 3 plus inch event or if we really hit the jack pot more. It just appears things are really coming together and more importantly, it fits the LRC!!!!!


Oops-I did not mean to write so much about Thursday or so much in general-kind of got carried away again LOL!! Today is the day to focus on-what an incredible weather day today is going to be-just WOW!!!!! Have a great day Gary and the whole Weather Team-good luck over the next 72 hours as it is going to be a wild ride and I know you are going to be extremely busy!!! I hope you can all get some rest and some time today I hope you get to go out and experience the winds and changes-always great to enjoy the weather itself!!! As always, thanks for reading and providing such a great place for the weather-I am putting the over/under at 200 posts today!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, we will concentrate on Thursday later on, right now the strongest front of the season is blasting in.  Great analysis, as usual.

Gary

5:36AM here at 130th and State Avenue and my weather station is currently stating

54.4°
SSW Wind @ 6MPH

Bryan

Data as of: 5:56 AM @ 130th and State Avenue
Temperature:  52.9°F
Pressure:  29.25"
Average Wind:  5mph NW
Humidity:  100%  
Dew Point:  53°F
Wind Chill:  51°F

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Bryan,

Keep us updated on when you see the front moving through.

Gary

Gary:

Quick check in before heading to work:

Temp. dropping quickly here now-dropped 4 degrees in 2 minuets-winds howling now out of the NW-Topeka is already in the upper 30's and Concordia is in the teens with Manhattan at 31-this is flippin awesome/incredible!! What a day this is going to be!! Also noticed a line of snow developing in Western Kansas-UNLEASH THE HOUNDS!!!!

Well, no politics or history being taught today-today students will be watching the weather!!! LOL

Bill in changing Lawrence

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Bill,

I haven't written a new blog yet, but we will work on one soon.  I am just waiting for the front to move through first.

Gary

Sorry-one last check then I have to get to work:

At 6:00 A.M. were at 50 degrees-now at 6:18 we are at 41-man is this awesome!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Front now moving through Western KCK

6:20 AM Update

Temperature:  46.2°F
Pressure:  29.26"
Wind: North @ 16MPH
Humidity:  100%  
Dew Point:  46°F


Wind Chill:  43°F

6:24AM
Temp is now 42.4°
North Wind @ 29 MPH

Down to 29 in St. Joseph with a NW wind around 17 mph with gusts up to 30mph. It is dropping quickly.