NBC Action Communities

Ick.  I understand the reasoning above due to timeframes..but 1-4 inches?  That forecast would satisfy 90% of the snowstorms historically in the KC metro.

LOL

Snowing now in Platte City.

Gary,

What do you think the probability will be that the upper low will form in southern Kansas or just slide on by.  We have seen this set-up a number of times before...

Also, in the previous blog, you mentioned a "February twist..."  what did you mean by that?

Fred

-------------------

Just look outside today, this is a February twist.

Gary

Gary--It is a mini blizzard in Topeka right now.  Moderate to sometimes heavy snow and winds 35-40 miles per hour.  We have nearly white out conditions.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Gary and Weather Team,

It is almost white out here in downtown Topeka. The snow is sticking on the roads and on the grass. Hopefully it will subside by 4pm or so.

Ryan

wow! I have not seen it snow this hard in Grandview yet this year, it's awsome! If it would only keep it up for 6hrs, lol

So it won't be snowing for the drive home this evening?

Cold and snowy in Olathe...looks like a shaken up snowglobe outside.  

We are soooo wanting a snow day!! You say the next storm will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. Does that mean it will start snowing Wednesday night into Thursday? Also, my daughter will be coming down to KC from Manhattan Thursday afternoon around 3. What do you think the conditions will be around that time?

Finally a few flurries in Harrisonville, though it's difficult to distinguish them from blowing bits of leaves and debris.

I've heard 1 to 4 inches 10 times this season...and every time we get the 1 inch.

I see nothing different.

we are having flurries here...I would not be surprised if St joseph got over an inch....thats a huge area of pink showing up, up there!

looks like the southern edge of the snow is not as solid...or as wide...but a good dusting will make me happy these days....

22 and dropping fast!

Brent

Okay, so I know you don't really want to talk about Thursday, BUT when in the day is the snow forecasted, I don't care so much how much snow but when it is important when it is going to fall  Out school had to cancel our primary grades "read and snuggle" once before this month due to weather and it is looking like Thursday is going to be a wash too.  If the snow is due early in the day or really really late in the day, we might be able to still have our event.  Thanks for your information!

well, that was short lived, hehe

For my local this year (Ward Pkwy Mall), the motto is "a dusting to two, then it's through."

Ok..this Thursday’s storm is different than the rest, and oddly fits the upper air pattern.  Gary likely can give more details as I don’t look too often at the upper air cycle, but this one seems to ring a bell.

If we remember, there are three storm tracks.  Through the zonal flow, which has been much of this month up about the 17th, the flow has come largely out of the NW and the vorts have dug down to about Joplin before racing NE.  Mostly this part is controlled by the northern branch and is very progressive.  More frontal type storms opposed to ULL spawned storms.

These have followed the normal storm track for the zonal flow.  About 3 days ago, we shifted into western troughing of the amplified flow, which has shown to drop more troughs not from the NW, but dropping into the West and flowing through a bit more from the west/southwest.

If each flow has a fingerprint, that is it.  And with the fingerprint comes a different track.  Look at this storm on Thursday.  This track is a bit different than what we have been watching lately, and as such..the results at the surface will change a bit in both location and amounts.

This Thursday’s storm is very well organized and continues to build as it passes us.  As a side note, LOOK OUT EAST COAST.

Ok..that out of the way, look at how it looks from bottom up.  It is not vertically stacked completely as it is near us, but it is from the surface up to about 600mb.  That is a sign of a very well constructed storm and as Gary mentions, as it begins to close off, it becomes a more formidable snow maker.  It does close off as it passes us by, thus the East Coast warning.

So…in this western amplified flow, you see more well constructed storms, which are also a bit slower due to their stacking, and also you see a more W/SW track to them.  These are more of the ULL type opposed to frontal.  They also go a different direction.  These do not zip to the NE like the zonal flow, but as they close off, or strengthen – they tend to do two things.

First, the are more cutoff from the northern stream.  This allows them to build more and slow down.  Second, they tend not to follow the zonal flow storm path.  

In looking at the horrible NAM, it does show it nearly or does cutoff at the 500mb level just to our south.  The GFS doesn’t quite do it, but very close.  Because of this, the path will be more easterly than NE.  

Gary, remember this track as these types of storms go more over NE Arkansas opposed to zipping up through central MO?  This is the first of two or three we will see this.  The early Feb storm following this one will likely do the same thing.

While it is hard for me to prove this out in the upper level maps in prior cycles, I am sure Gary can do it.  What I do know, is that this is a trait of this part of the cycle.  I also know that this amplified flow started a few days ago.  On schedule might I add.

Gary has indicated that this is the start of the active cycle..and the reason for this is because of these different storm types.  These slower moving, better organized storms are the ones responsible for the majority of the precipitation totals in the prior cycle months.   Look back in early December and October when we entered this phase…pretty impressive.

The active pattern really started about January 17th.  If I remember right, we were greeted with snow from the 16-17th.  This part of the active pattern is predominantly shown from a central troughing until January 24th.  Now, we are seeing the shift to a western troughing, which brings in this different type of storm, and should continue to about Feb 7th.

Sad to say, after the 7th, the spicket largely turns off back to the zonal flow.  Oh sure, we will have some storms, but will be more frontal of nature.  Lots of fronto/baroclinic potential in March.

All this said, I am going to go a bit more than the 1-4 inches for this storm.  Per surface trending and the disposition of this time in the cycle, I am inclined to go more than this.  I am thinking closer to 3-5 as I see it now..but it has potential for more.

Gary has taken the high road with this..and probably will be wiser for it.  Just based on what the cycle analysis shows and how these have trended, I am going for more.

Brent – this part of the cycle which only lasts for about a week is what you likely should look for during the rest of the winter/spring.  It is about the only time you should get your hopes up for more than a snowflake or two.  I think in Spring time, the roles will reverse perhaps.

LOL

Snowing very good in Leavenworth, as someone mentioned above, it looks like a mini-blizzard out there.

St Joe is now in the moderate snow with what fell earlier around 8:00 AM a grassy areas are the nearly covered and thanks to the wind most of the snow has blown off the streets and sidewalks.  Topeka radar you on the fritz again and has not updated since 11:15.              

still flurries here.....

I would say it is like a blizzard here in Edwardsville.  The snow mixed with the wind is making visibility very bad.   Not to mention that it is so cold.  It is starting to get a little slick in spots too!!  Be careful everyone!!!!

scott, in your opinion, do you think the snow will be heavier south or north

Still snowing like crazy here in Olathe.  The street in front of my house is completely covered.

Snowing heavily at 59th and N Oak in Gladtone.  Visibility is about 1/4 mile.  Be careful.

Scott,

I agree with you on why the roles will probably reverse for spring, the main reason being because you always look for the SE quadrant of the Low for severe weather, and in the winter you look at the N and NW quadrant. Thus if this pattern holds in tact, and a strong la nina which tends to favor larger severe weather outbreaks. I would imagine a few major severe weather outbreaks in the Missouri valley, Alot of people I know compare this la nina and weather pattern to 1974, in 1974, we had a few very significant tornado outbreaks, one being an infamous outbreak to our east, and another in early June in Kansas and Oklahoma..

In the meantime, an exception like this storm Thursday and cold fron today, has the potential to bring a suprising late season snow or freeze again.

It is accumulating very nicely on my deck, would have say 1/2 inch already, (rough estimate)

At times it appears to be snowing almost straight up! Nearly white-out conditions in the Crown Center area right now.

adogg, too soon to tell..I am thinking more of a widespread pattern.

But as soon as I say that, someone will prove it wrong.  I think the south will get more than they have..but, it is this last few hours that are the most telling regarding the discrete dynamics.

Pretty cool today though...nice snowglobe affect.  [but it shouldn't have been a suprise?]

Atop Mt Oread here in Lawrence, big flakes are falling!  I obviously didnt measure, but there is enough on the sidewalks to be slick!  Too bad these storms are on tues/thurs because I have classes from 930-7 both days!

Congrats weather team for getting this one right.... Again!!

Brian

jbtornado -

Exactly.  The SE side, if the pattern holds, would be more apt to be in the warm sector.

"a strong la nina which tends to favor larger severe weather outbreaks."  Blah.  Don't know if I agree, but can't say I can prove it wrong either.  I hate ENSO relationships being used for operational impacts to patterns in the area.  Perhaps a weak trend, but nothing I can't analyze and say "aha"

WOW, just took the dog out for a short walk in this, amazing, it is coming down hard and it is blowing like crazy, WOW my digital thermometer is reading about 13.8 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    A MINI BLIZZARD I WOULD SAY.

Gary and Team,

It did look like a blizzard in downtown Topeka earlier. I'd say we got a quick inch of snow and I am seeing drifts that look around 6 inches deep or so at my location.

I notice that the blog is getting more posters from the Topeka area (Michael in Berryton is probably the "Dean" of the group!).  I noticed there was also a poster from Salina recently.

This says a lot for you and the weather team's work since we have not been able to get KSHB-TV on our local Topeka cable TV for a number of years now.  As a weather enthusiast all my life, I enjoy reading the blog, getting modelitis and the excitement we all have when the weather gets wild like it can do around here.  Anyway, congratulations and thanks!

Mike in Topeka

thanks scott, if that wind would let up a bit, down here in drexel we might have a dusting, as of now, no snow at all on the ground!

20 degrees and very windy in Excelsior Springs. Beautiful weather if you ask me. You can have your sunny and 70........I'll take snowy and 20 any day.

Will Thursday's storm come blasting in like this one?

This wind is crazy!! BBQ lid blew off and smashed my concrete garden statue. :( I'm hiding out in the basement and the window well covers are vibrating real bad. When will this blast of wind subside a little bit? I can handle 20 MPH Gust, but 43 MPH... NOT!

Hey Mike L

I used to watch Gary years ago on the Fox Station in KC on our cable out here in Salina, and we also had KSHB til 2000 so I got to see him for a little over his year as he became a chief meteorologist at KSHB. We still get the ABC KC station on our cable here and the Topeka CBS affilliate and of course all the Wichita stations, but I never forgot him when we got the internet, and this blog and forecasts and the internet have been such a great blessing for weather fanatics for keeping up with my favorite meteorologists all over the midwest. This blog helps me realize I am far from alone!

And yeah if you all can't tell, I'm ready for spring! I know thats not too popular here though!

Gary---The snow is subsiding here in Topeka---Mike in Topeka (Thanks for the compliment but I am not sure I am the Dean from Topeka's bloggers per say) is right, there is about an inch downtown.  So much snow blew around!  Yes, I completely agree with the other Mike's statement--I wish our Cox would put you all back on!  But with your blog and I can hear you on 980 am, it is great to get the best weather information.  Next looking forward to Thursday's storm.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

WOW, IT IS ALMOST A WHITE OUT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:0

I've got a North Wind sustained at 26 MPH and a gust of 42 that was recorded at 1232 PM. Moderate snowfall and near whiteout conditions at 130th and State Avenue. Temp is currently at 15.6 as well.

Bryan

Mini Blizzard here, Nice!! It looks like Olathe already has about 1/2" maybe a little more. We'll just called it a very heavy Dusting.

Snowing like crazy in TOnganoxie!  We have an inch at least with 5-6" drifts.  I just came home from work, roads are getting bad.  Only had trouble at a stop sign on a hill, spun the whole way.  It is a blustery 12 degrees.   I want a big snow Thursday so I don't have to go anywhere!!  

farmgirl, why would you hide out in your basement?

We have nearly white out conditions in Lenexa right now!!! Take that back, white out conditions!! Really heavy snow, this is really cool.

Snow starting to subside in Platte City, but still bitterly cold and windy.  Unofficial visual observation: heavy dusting to maybe 1/2" of snow.

I wish people out on the roads would remember to turn on their headlights! In near white-out conditions like this it's difficult to see cars that don't have their lights turned on!

I'm confused on why the NWS hasn't issued a Blowing Snow Advisory for anyone in our area.  I don't know what the criteria is for one, but I do know you can't see more than 200 yards in front of your car on the highway.  White out conditions and no warning?  Hmmm.........

snow pellets here...I would say light to moderate snow falling

mini blizzard!

very light dusting so far.

15 degrees!

its dropped so much!

kellyann my guess is that's where the computer is anyways...lol!

I went out at lunch for a bit.  holy moly it's crazy out there!  Didn't need a  coat when I came to work and now I need a bigger one.

the snow is just blowing straight to springfield...its not stopping here to accumulate!
LOL

marlina I just noticed on KC Scouts website that a bunch of message boards around the metro say "low visibility turn on headlights"

Roads are very slick...there is a 19 car pile up on North Bound I-35 just past Johnson Drive...  :(

Near-whiteout conditions up here near N Oak & Barry Rd... can barely see the house across the street!

white out conditions still occuring in western kck, 11.4 here now as temps have dropped almost 50 degrees since 515AM. IMPRESSIVE!!

I was awake from 2:15 AM until 7:45 AM.  At 2, the temp was 54 degrees at KCI.  At 6 AM, I believe the temp was 50 degrees.  At 7 AM, the temp was 38 degrees.  Now, it is 11 degrees at KCI.  The temp there has dropped 39 degrees in  the last seven hours.  This reminds me of that day on Feb. 1, 1989, where the temp was in the 40s/50s in the early morning and the temps were down in the single digits by nightfall.

Snowing with blowing snow here.

Kristi

gary i have about an inch over here by worlds of fun and still comin down.

When is this stuff now predicted to end and, do you think there will be problems with the roads some rush hour, or just the visibility with the snow that fell blowing around?

It would be interesting on tonight's news to maybe chart the temps during the first hour or two when the cold front moved through.  Perhaps what it was every 15 minutes from right before the front to 90-120 minutes later.

I just got home from work a bit ago and that's about a 15 minute WALK!  Usually it's not bad no matter how cold for me but factor in the wind and... HOLY FROZEN EYEBALLS, BATMAN!!!  I bundle up appropriately but I've been home for probably 10-15 minutes now and I'm only now thawing out.  LOL

I LOVE how it looks outside, though.  It's so... WHITE!  LOL  I live for storms and winter storms particularly excite me.  As one other blogger said, if only the snow would keep coming down at this clip for another 6+ hours.  :-)

Why the NWS does not put us at least under a blowing snow advisory baffles me. You would think they would attempt to error on the side of caution to alert the public of what's out there, but then again, they just blew off that "near-Blizzard" that hit Topeka and St. Joseph earlier where there were multiple 30 call pile-ups.

NBC action news is MUCH more accurate and reliable than the NWS!

It's been snowing here since about 10:30 (flurries) with some whiteout conditions. We've got about an inch on the ground now. Very white.

I hide out in the basement cause I can't stand to hear the wind blast against the house. I'm on the open prairie with no trees... all hay/pasture land. So when the winds howl, I retreat. ANd it is warmer in the basement too. :)

WOW- I just took the dog for a short walk, the snow is coming down sideways!  The wind cuts right through you.  We have about 1/2+ here in S. OP.  Just plain nasty.

WOW WOW WOW at time i can only see 2 houses away its so white outside. near 291 and stark road norhteast side of town.

Farmgirl,
How are all your animals doing today?  I know the weather today has to be hard on them.

Kristi

marlina10 ~ That is one of my biggest pet peeves!

It was 50 degrees here (NW Ray County) at 5:30am, right now, my weather station reads 11.8.  About 1/2" of snow or little more.  At one time, I could just make out my mailbox which is approx 70 yards from the house.  Does that constitute white out conditions?  Seems to be getting lighter outside now...

I know there is a 10 car pile-up on EB I-70 ************** Everyone drive safe! The visibility is poor in the snow bands and the roads are icy in spots! Jeremy

I think the heaviest of the snow (which was at most, moderate) is starting to come to a close here.

It looks like they shut down part of I-35 around Antioch or Johnson Dr. from looking at the Scout cam.  Pretty bad accident.  Just a little Wind Advisory folks, nothing to worry about!

Kristi, I must say, you seem to sleep at the strangest times, lol..How can you stay awake all night?

A light dusting here.us ************ You should see a quarter to half inch...maybe:) Better than nothing! Jeremy

snowing hard in drexel, looks like we may get 1/2 inch if we're lucky ************ The heaviest snow has been from around KC and points north. But the cold air is being 'enjoyed' by everyone! Jeremy

I would not say that it is snowing hard...I think people are exaggerating the intensity...because of the winds.....I haven't seen snow heavier than moderate so far...and people are talking about very heavy snow?...I think its an exaggeration....the winds make it look hard...but when you go outside...its not really that heavy....

I'm looking on esp...and I am getting just as heavy snow as everyone else......but I mean moderate...lol *************** Brent, If it wasn't snowing heavy the obs at KCI and MKC would not be reporting heavy snow. Maybe just moderate snow where you are at, but there has been a period of heavy snow with the most intense radar echoes. Jeremy

smmikeman, seems you are in my neck of the woods...how much have we gotten up there?

Jeremy-

Is is going to slow enough for road crews to get out and clean up before rush hour lunatics are releasd? ************** The snow yes...the wind will gradually ease this evening. The sun should appear before the day is over in KC, like Gary mentioned last night. Jeremy

That forecasted dusting for points south of KC is sure starting to accumulate.....mini-blizzard conditions here in Drexel and WOW what a temp swing this morning. I have been out of this region for a while and its been several years since experiencing an almost 50 degree temp drop in a few hours. ************ The moderate/heavy snow will be very brief well south of KC. Just a heavy dusting probably. Jeremy

between moderate and heavy snow burst here in Harrisonville now...coming down at a decent clip....still about 1/8 in. of snow... **************** Thanks for the update Brent! Jeremy

I can't believe it's still snowing as hard as it is!  Hard to tell how much has fallen because of the blowing snow but I'd have to guess that it's better than 1/2 inch.  I'm not looking forward to picking up the kids from school today!   ************ At least you should just battle the wind and cold then. Watch for the icy spots though. Jeremy

Well the snow has let up here in St. Joe but everything is white again;)
hard to tell but I would say maybe an inch.  It is still snowing some, and the wind is also still blowing pretty good.   Oh and while we are having a mini blizzard, with temps in the teens... St. Louis in under a TORNADO WATCH, and there is wind chills in North Dakota -50 degrees, and that is of course with the new scale, I can't even fathom what they would be with the old scale, I wonder in what range our wind chills would be with the old scale, to get a historical perspective on the intensity of this cold slam. *************** That old wind chill chart was a little crazy. I remember the -70 wind chills growing up and thinking...wouldn't I freeze the second I went outside? Never happened:) Jeremy

Peculiar update.. moderate to heavy snow at times..seems the wind has slowed a little ..snow is starting to cover the lawn and sidewalks...temp at  15 degrees ************* Great to hear from you! Thanks! Jeremy

It looks as if the sun is out above the snow, really weird! ************* We'll see a little sun to end a crazy day! Jeremy

Brent...don't you think you're exaggerating a little on the intensity of the "heavy" snow burst?  ;)  Just kidding...but at times it really has been quite bad out there.

Quick update: Lee's Summit has 1" of snow maybe a little more.  White out conditions with very strong winds!  Moderate snow. ************ Are you smiling today Jacob? Jeremy

Gary....I just wanted to say thank you for the blog and for the updates through out the day.  I know you have plenty going on there and you taking the time to do the blog multiple times through out the day is just another example of how much you care.  Thank you Deb ************** Deb, Thanks for your comment...Gary will see it when he arrives at work any second. We love the blog and hope everyone that takes part does as well! Jeremy

WOW!  I just drove my daughter from Overland Park at 101st and Lamar, to my mom's house in Shawnee at 67th and Lackman. When I left my house it was lightly snowing and I thought it would be no problem.  435 from Metcalf till about 95th St was ok, visibility was fair, but it wasn't slick and you could see a ways in front of you. At a bit north of 95th it still wasn't slick but the visibility became bad, could barely see 2 car lengths in front of me. I would normally exit at Shawnee Mission Parway, but at  Midland I had to get off 435 because I couldn't see one car length in front of me,  and it looked like just a few feet ahead was even worse. I felt it would be safer to not be on the highway at that point. From Midland to Lackman was slick and hard to see, Lackman was awful, I could barely get up a hill and then I slid in my mom's apartment complex parking lot.  She seemed to already have nearly an inch at her apartment and it was still snowing pretty hard. My ride was home was about the same, except visibility was bad all the way to Quivira, then got to fair until Metcalf. ************* Thanks for sharing the update! Jeremy

Foodl - I agree - I think the NWS should have put out a blowing snow advisory..but they didn't.  The did alude to it in a a recent short term posting...

"119 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

.NOW...
HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE NOW EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY AROUND AN INCH
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO TWO INCHES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OF THE SNOW...WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
" ***************** With the statement they put out last night I'm surprised a Winter Weather Advisory or Blowing Snow Advisory wasn't in place. But I think most got the message that watched Gary last night. Jeremy

Snow letting up here in S. OP, can just see the top of the blades of grass.  I'd say we got a good inch here. ************* Snowing is ending quick from west to east. Thanks for the total. Jeremy

Its crazy in Columbia. There is a small area of heavy precip right on top of us. Its all in the form of very large snow balls, (Graupel).
Very loud, and they are the size of atleast pees, a few even larger.

Jeremy - I could see skipping the WWA due to totals, but certainly if you are going to do a Wind Advisory and snow is in the forecast, then a Blowing Snow Advisory should go with it.  In fact, likely would just do the BSA instead of the wA.

But then again..just me...armchair met at this point.  LOL

Jeremy - are you still taking the under on .25 for Thursday's storm? *********** Actually I'll take over a .25" of snow:) Jeremy

I can't tell if it's still snowing or if it's just blowing now.   ************* I'd say a little of both where you are at. Jeremy

letting up finally at 59th & N Oak.  Just eyeballing would say between 1 1/2 inc to 2 inchs.  Little snow devils wipping around the lot.  N Oak is getting better but still slow.

driving on 435 today in Kansas from 1130am to 130pm was absolutely awesome!!!
ENJOY EVERYONE!
Please, please, please, one foot thursday! ************** We'll work on that;) Jeremy

Just goes to show the NWS can't hit the mark with their winter weather watches/warnings.  They do a great job with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, but this winter weather turns into a guessing game.

Anyway, I know to get the best forecast in town from NBC Action News.  Every thought about sending out your own weather warning messages on your text message system? *************** We'll leave the watches/warnings/advisories to NWS. Gary did a great job last night. I saw other forecasts on my day off and I thought it was their day off too:) Jeremy

WOW  St Louis was 70 at noon.  Now the temp is 52 there.  I wonder how far the temp will drop there.

Kristi ************ Probably into the teens. Jeremy

This looks promising...I'd take the over by far.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

slowed down a lot now, looks like just under 2 inches or so.

I am really surprised that the NWS did not issues a Blowing Snow Advisory.

Kristi

Jeremy, lets keep it at liquid.  I am sure it will be over .25 in snow.  LOL.  Dare you go over .25 liquid?  I am.  Also, how about the same bet for the upcoming two Feb storms?  I will take the bet now for over .25 liquid.

6pack of coke?

LOL.

I said above "Sad to say, after the 7th, the spicket largely turns off back to the zonal flow.  Oh sure, we will have some storms, but will be more frontal of nature.  Lots of fronto/baroclinic potential in March. "

For those scoring at home, look long range at around 300hr.  The flow flattens out back to zonal.

Incredible.

nastyweather - I am not sure I agree with you on the NWS and winter.  They do pretty well.  I believe they missed today, but it is the only time I can think lately that they did.

Besides, it is KSHB you should be watching - not the NWS.   Ha. *************** We don't support betting in the blog:) Hard to pin down one exact location and say it will or won't have over/under .25" on Thursday. I think some areas will, but exactly who is the big question. Since I'm off I will let Gary/Jeff handle the forecast snow totals for Thursday. Jeremy

"I saw other forecasts on my day off and I thought it was their day off too:) Jeremy"

Not nice Jeremy.

LOL ************* Oh well...

My mom talked to one of her brothers who lives in Ridgway CO yesterday.  For all you snow lovers, there is probably three feet of snow on the ground there.  If you wondering where Ridgway is..  It is about 80 miles south southeast of Grand Junction CO or 10 miles north of Ouray CO (at the foot of the north side of the San Juan Mountains).

Kristi

What is the criteria for a blowing snow advisory?  I would think that today would fit but I'm no meteorolgist.

Jeremy - chicken.  LOL ************ That's okay...I've been called worse by my 2 year old. Jeremy

Jeremy...you just got called out!  Don't put up with that!  ;)

well we ended up with about a quarter inch of snow...its hard to measure though..sometimes just by looking at it you can tell...anyway...

good job on the forecast Gary!
trhe other stations didn't make this out to be too big of a deal...but it caused travel problems...so I am glad to warned us about it!

now lets get a good 6 inches south of I-70 on thursday.....thats what everyone but you is saying!

please up your totals! ************** Brent, Now that today is calming down(falling snow). It will be easier for Gary to focus on Thursday. Especially at 10pm tonight. Thanks for sending in your total. Jeremy

Scott the NWS also missed the boat with the Heavy Snow Warnings back in December.  To their credit it's only twice I've noticed them way under/over estimated things.  Also, they do an excellent job with severe weather, so I'm not throwing them under the bus entirely.  Regardless, I just pay attention to their watches/warnings. **************** Their statement last night covered things. But to overall unless you have internet or a weather radio you probably don't see the NWS forecast. Jeremy

Looks to be one final shot of moderate snow coming down now here in S. OP.  What a day!

Jeremy...BIG SMILE ON MY FACE!  I am really looking forword to Thursday! ************ Jacob, This was a wild day! Now let's just get a good snow on Thursday for you! Jeremy

and here comes the sun... ************ Hey...we warmed up 1 degree at KCI in the last hour! Jeremy

Olathe North- 1.5" very hard to measure with wind *********** Tough to measure. I'd say closer to 1" where I'm at in Olathe. Jeremy

Yeah I didn't believe it either but 1.5" here near Barry Rd & N Oak with drifts to 2". Took 6 separate measurements, 4 of which were 1.5", 1 at 1.75", and 1 at 2" in various locations on the driveway. *************** OK...thanks for the total. Jeremy

the snow has stopped... falling but it is still being blown pretty good at times and the wind of course is still howling! *********** I'm guessing you are enjoying this too Nick! Jeremy

Yes the old chart was crazy but it is still an interesting thing to point out when trying to compare wind chill events to older ones.

we have very light flurries here now in south Raytown.

Kristi

jeremy... i sent an email to your kshb account several hours ago. i was going to post it here - something from an associate in MN - but should have known you couldn't stay away from the blog!

btw... we're at about an inch here near K-7 and K-10.

Anybody live around south-ish?  Towards Warrensburg?  What's happening there?  Still snowing (or blowing) in Blue Springs.  The roads are very very slick.  Hopefully they can get out and do something before evening!

Anybody live around south-ish?  Towards Warrensburg?  What's happening there?  Still snowing (or blowing) in Blue Springs.  The roads are very very slick.  Hopefully they can get out and do something before evening!

We have already picked up over 2" of snow and the wind is very strong blowing the snow on the ground and the snow falling creating whiteout conditions!!!

THROW THE NAM OUT!!  Man its WAY OFF compared to the GFS!

Simplykristi,
Yeah--the San Juan's are famous for some of deepest bases (for skiing purposes) in the Rockies.  Wolf Creek and Teluride ski areas are lovin' all the snow I am certain!  Thanks for the report.  It is nice to think about a place where snow does some good, besides just looking pretty.  
Back to the blustery, blizzard here!  Just north of Basehor the sun has just begun to peek out and we have a good dusting (with all the blowing around I am just not sure how much snow actually fell).  It is 14 degrees.  Yikes!
--Anna

snow has stopped in drexel, quarter of an inch probably, looking forward to thur. ************* Thanks for keeping us updated. Jeremy

wow I feel jealous when I hear people saying they got an inch!....

I'll sit with my .25 I guess...lol


whats left of it....I think it all went on vacation down to springfield...with the winds!

sunshine and 11.9 here in KCK ************* Doesn't that sun feel good:) Jeremy

NOAA radio last nite at 7:00pm was for 1 inch of snow Kansas City and north;  they were correct based upon info from yesterday afternoon.

St Joseph received 1.7 inches of powder likely .05 moisture.  NWS has been more accurate this year than I can ever remember them being in the past.  Their hazards briefing is very cautious but imformative.  So do not bash the guys that pay for the models, satelites, soundings and national radar network.  A WINTER STORM WATCH for Thursday would not surpise me but will it come tonite or tomorrow morning?  

St Joseph has now had 28.1 in of snow this winter throw in Thursday and we will be over 30 inches easy. ************** Personally I see advisories/watches coming Wednesday. Probably not this p.m. Jeremy

Im jealous od an inch too. Its pitiful

Today's snow was awesome!!
What a nice very short blizzard that was, almost anyway.  It hasn't blown that hard yet w/ the snow.  Looks very close to an inch here in OP, hard to tell, it was a quick one.  The blowing and drifting is just awesome!!! I hope that upper level low Thursday would form, but alteast as of "now" widespread 1-4 as your are currently thinking is ok with me.  This winter has ROCKED!  We also have enough outside here to go sledding again, so much fun.  
Your forecast was straight on as I told everyone at work, they didn't believe it would stick- lol, how can it not when the snow fell so hard with the temps falling so quick.  Some very interesting weather going on, there was an avalanche in Washington that I had to communicate critical notifications for UPS and created a mess for same day shipments in that area!  Also snow in China?- weird, lots of stories going around about that here at work.  Alot of different places are seeing the beauty of winter this year!  I know im enjoying it until the end!  I bet next year will be similiar but we won't know until November, LOL.    

Looking out my window, I see the smallest patch of blue sky!  Actually, maybe it's not that small! :)  (It's the little things that make me happy LOL!)

i have about 0.7 inches here, not quite an inch in Parkville. It's 12F here and snow is blowing all over the place. Gary, Jeremy, Do you guys think that the north will get more snow again or the south or will it be a widespread storm?

We have between 1.5" and 2.5" in Lenexa (79th and Lackman). Most of my measurements came in right at 2", but in the windswept part of the yard they were a little lower. There are some very impressive drifts too! This was a very nice surprise, because, while I knew it would snow, I was not expecting this much!!  Now, lets see what we can do for Thursday.....    :)

David

Anna,
Ridgway normally misses a lot of the heavy snowfall because the SW winds usually blows the snow over the valley where Ridgway is (It sits at about 7000 feet above sea level.).  It's unbelievable of how much snow Ridgway has gotten this year.  I think that the Rockies have had some good snowfall in some parts. I know the San Juans have gotten hit with a lot of snow so far.

Kristi

Looks like one half-inch here in south Raytown.

Kristi

The late afternoon visible satelite should bear out accums as the sun is out here now!  But still 12.8 degrees likely get to Zero befor midnite with this snow cover.  50 to zero is nothing to write home about in one day!

Waiting on the GFS should start comming out in 20 min.!

i hope we can do better than this on Thursday.

Pretty impressive for a while there with all the snow blowing around. I am surprised NWS never issued an advisory of some kind. Clearly this was enough to make travel hazardous, which is their normal criteria for a WWA or Blowing Snow Advisory.

Now that the snow has stopped it looks like things are improving, though.

Take that back, GFS starting to roll out now!

Today's snow brough Parkville's total to 14.7 inches.

--------------

Thank you!

Gary

Gary-

Just woke up from sleeping off another third trick at the railroad, and here in the Northland, near the Gladstone Post Office, there's a solid one inch of snow, but of course 2 to 3 inches in the areas where it has drifted and blown around.

------------

Thanks for the report, we hope you had enough sleep.

Gary

And, the sky is BLUE.  I should be out burning off some Kodachrome 64!

Hey snow fans...check this out from NWS' afternoon discussions...

"model trends of continuing to show higher quantitative precipitation forecast in this deformation band may necessitate a Winter Storm Watch in the next forecast package"

THe NWS did issue a warning about the snow and wind and visibilities -- at 4:01 a.m. this morning.  You can sign up to have them emailed to you.  This is just part of it:

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET DURING THE DAY...WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
TO BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
NIGHTFALL. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS...AS BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE
GROUND VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PERSONS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35...WHERE
CROSS-WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD ALSO BE
ANCHORED.

I thought I remembered getting one but everyone is saying they didn't issue it I thought I'd lost what was left of my mind!  :)

Im likeing the GFS.  Give EVERYONE  a solid 3-5in.  But its still 2 days away.

RogOz, that's part of the daily hazardous weather outlook. They issue that every day. But they did not actually issue a winter-weather warning of any kind. When they do that, it puts much more emphasis on it, and adds a headline to every forecast.

Ok...just had my first take on the new GFS.  Looks good.  I would like to see it come through as advertised, but need it do deepen just a bit more.  We are solid in the comma head.

QPF should never have been in doubt based on where in the cycle this is.  Same will be said for the early Feb storms.

I like the PVA, I like where the metro is in relationship to the lower level lows.  I like the temp profiles in the lower atmosphere..it looks good.  Just needs to deepen a bit and start its negative tilt just a frame earlier.  That would be optimal.

I am not counting that out yet.  I would expect to see based on this run for some real amounts to start coming out.  And I would expect to see quite a variance throughout the different media and forecasting outlets.  I am still in for 3-5 in the metro, but if it deepens, that might be a bit light.

I would not be suprised to see QPFs from .25-.6 from this.  Also, it appears to be possible to see snow chances through 4 frames of the run.  That would lend to an extended window for opportunity.

Lets see what happens...

-----------------

Scott,

It isn't a solid comma head.  This storm is being modeled best by the GFS, thus far.  We have had a storm very similar to Thursday's a couple of times already.  And, they don't close off until they are southeast of Kansas City.  This is good and bad.  It is good as it builds the precipitation shield all the way to the Nebraska/Iowa borders.  It is bad because we really don't get a true comma head. 

I am holding out hope for a more organized solution.  We will see.

Gary

Are we ever going to see that storm that produced 4" of rain & freezing rain over northern MO cycle through again? If it combined with the Artic airmass, that would be at least 2 feet of snow.

It would be so incredible to be in a 16"+ snowstorm!

---------------------

Well, we are seeing signs of one of  our wetter storm systems next week. 

Gary

Are we ever going to see that storm that produced 4" of rain & freezing rain over northern MO cycle through again? If it combined with the Artic airmass, that would be at least 2 feet of snow.

It would be so incredible to be in a 16"+ snowstorm!

Okay, to all of you out and about (well you aren't out and about RIGHT NOW, if you are reading this, but I digress)  BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS!!!  The roads are deceptive.  They LOOK like snow, when in fact they are encased in an unsavory coating of ice.  I drove about five miles home from work 30 minutes ago, and in that short journey I witnessed a guy t-bone a bus, and another guy do a 720 into a light pole whilst pulling into a Quik Trip parking lot.  QUITE TREACHEROUS.  Don't be fooled by the sun or the other insane motorists zipping about in their Ford Subdivisions talking on their phones.  They will feel the brunt of their carelessness.  

Don't go anywhere unless you have to.  I mean, really.  Like if you cut your arm off in a bizarre meat carving accident, then you can leave your house.

Just a word to the wise.
(this took place roughly at 152 & Barry Road, btw)

This is good news for all of you snow lovers!   MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT WAVE
DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT...THEN CONTINUING ITS
INTENSIFICATION AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. INITIAL DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PREDOMINANT ELY
FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED AS STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT AND
THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE BOTH FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
OVERSPREAD THE COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM. NAM-WRF MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION...AND
REMAINS THE OUTLIER VERSUS GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THIS FACET IS MOST
TROUBLESOME CONSIDERING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGS A VERY WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION BAND WITH ASSOCIATED TROWAL AND FRONTOGENETICAL FEATURES
TO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OR AMOUNTS...HOWEVER MODEL TRENDS OF
CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGHER QPF IN THIS DEFORMATION BAND MAY
NECESSITATE A WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

yeah foodl3!!!

I want that storm to come back with arctic air!

Scott, Im not sure if I ask you this or not at an earlier time...but where do I go to see the GFS that you are looking at?

I think 3-5" is a pretty solid bet. No real reason to believe it will deepen/close off until it is SE of the metro. It's very common, not just in this winter but in previous ones, to have storms strengthen just after passing KC.

full sunshine in Harrisonville!

Gary - I think this storm is a bit different.  Just me.  I noted why above.

Help me learn.  How is the below not a nice comma head?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_700_048l.gif

-------------------

Scott,

About 12 hours later it does become a stronger comma head.  We are in the developing process of the comma head.  It is something we will have to pay close attention too.  If it does mature into a comma head, then the upper low will be forming a bit farther north and we could increase our snowfall forecast.  But, at this moment I will wait and see another day's worth of data.  Even though it fits best for it to form into an upper low a bit later, I would love it see it form a bit earlier.  Could this be the interesting February twist (no pun intended)? 

Look at the 700 mb map at 66 hours. This is now a fully formed comma head.

Gary

That storm that brought all the rain/ice also brought lots of warm air....

kellyann, I look at the NCEP site for the models.  There are others..and some are easier to read than others.  I just go with this site as I have used it since I have learned.

You might also try the forecast tools in the SPC site.  It has some very nice tools for the SREF.

Overcast with peeks of sunshine in Warrensburg area.  Not too much snow, probably 1/4 inch if that, but it was fun to watch!

Here is something for Brent...lol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f048&startdate=2008012915&field=SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_

Just got my power back on in Central OP... was out for about a hour.   Glad to get it back on before sunset.  

Thursdays storm looks interesting.   I notice the NWS says that south of the river will be in the zone for heavier snow as of now... above an advisory level.  

I assume we should see WSW popping up tomorrow.   It will be nice to have a daytime snow event for once.   They all seem to hang out west all day before moving through the metro.   I assume no chance of that this time since it is a further south track... but it can change so fast in a day.   Lets see what tomorrow looks like.

the 4 o clock weather station said that areas south of Kansas city may see 6 plus inches on thursday!!!!!!!!!!!!!

whats your take on this Gary?

still thinking st joesph?

Scott, thanks a bunch!

The 12Z GFS MOS wants to bring 4 inches to KMCI/Downtown.

Yup..here comes the forecasts...lol...knew they would be wild.

I'm a little surprised someone went out on a limb and said 6"+ for areas south of KC already.  Maybe I'm missing something but every time we get a little closer to these events things shift northward.  We'll see.

Brent, I have heard up to 4 inches for south KC

that was on a radio station about 5 min ago

Well I dont think that was Gary, cause he has already said he is going to wait before he gives his est. snowfall total.

6+ would be awsome, but until gary hints toward it, dont count on it

how, another station said 4 inches in the north and 6 inches down south!

PatsSoxCelts, I heard the same thing only the area for 6 inches was far southern Mo and Ks is what they said. South  of Harrisonville. Brent would just have a fit if he missed the big snow again, only to the south this time, LOL

i meant to say wow, another said 4 inches in the north and 6 inches down south!

Someone took my thunder or line or snow they eject north all winter; we will see what happens in 48 hrs and what the models are saying in 24.  We have only had a WSW for the ice storm events the watch area for the Dec 22  9 incher was south of I-70.  NEED I SAY MORE  

Well now that specific numbers are being thrown out, I'm curious what Gary will say in his forecast.

Well here in St. Joe it is an amazing sight, crystal clear skies, a powdery snow being picked up in huge tufts from the ground and lifted into the air light up by the sun with snow blowing along the ground like sand in the windy desert, and even snow whirls whipping by.  Another thing that is neat is that we live near a high school foot ball field that is sitting at a lower elevation with higher ground on all sides except for the south side, and when a big gust of wind comes up from the north and west you can see the snow raise straight up into the air in response to the oncoming gust of wind as it creates a brief vacuum effect over the field.

Here's what Springfield NWS is saying about snow potential.  I'll be shocked if this storm stays that far south of KC.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=sgf&storyid=12543&source=0

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh click left hand side for winter weather and check out the percentages for >4 inches and >8 inches for the area two days out....I say bring on at LEAST 8 inches and make it worth it!!!

Stormdog here  - miserable frigid weather - but you all have to have your snow stuff - this pattern if it continues, might offer nice thunder opportunities later.

Peace out,
Dog ************** Stay warm tonight dog! Jeremy

gary, are you still going with 11 for the low tonight? its already down to 12 and it is going to be a clear night with snow on the ground....single digits seem likely, atleast.

well, todays storm was surely stronger than expected, maybe thursdays will follow suit...i am not overly impressed with the latest gfs, there is less qpf now than there was yesterday.  fortunately, we will probably be looking at a respectable snow ratio during the storm, that will make up for the modest qpf.  

we are in the window for the gfs trending north, lets see what the 0z brings... ***************** PVT, The storm wasn't much stronger than expected. Gary went a dusting to 1" last night and was the only one having temps in the teens this afternoon. Anyways, he does have a low in the single digits tonight. We've also been discussing how the models continue...especially the NAM push storms too far south this season. We should have a much better idea by 10pm tonight. Gary said he may narrow down the snow bands by then. Jeremy

Gary's calling for 1 to 4 inches right now.  He will look at things again for the 10 PM newscast.

Kristi

Gary has said 1-4 inches all day . ************ He talked about narrowing the bands tonight. Jeremy

About a half inch here in Raytown. Amazing temperature drop!

Now Thursday will be fun!
BTW is anything wrong with the broadcast? We have Dish and 41 is weird all other channels are fine.

Kelly ************** Kelly, All the others stations in town banded together to prevent us from getting the most accurate forecast to viewers:) j/k If we hear of others problems like that we will mention it to the engineers. Jeremy

Whoever it was that reported 1.5" to KSHB in Lee's Summit, either needs a pair of glasses or is using the metric scale.  At 291 and Langsford, we got at best a little over 1/4".... ************* Maybe the measurement was a mini snow drift. I'm sure totals varied so we can add yours to the list. Thanks for adding it. Jeremy

GaryB, lol...I agree, I went to my sisters a little while ago and there is no way they have 1.5. maybe half an inch , .75 at the most

Kelly in Raytown,
We have DISH Network too and 41 started acting up.  I thought that I was going to miss Gary's forecast  at 5.  I was going to be upset if I missed it.

Kristi

simplykristi, i have the same problem with DISH. And it's ONLY 41. It makes me mad.

Thanks Kristi. I switched to antenna and it was the same.
I thought I had a issue.
Kelly

Had same problem with Dish as well. Ill watch the 6pm news cast

Hey Jeremy..what will give you a better idea tonight at 10PM, another run? ************ Pretty much. The GFS keeps giving the area a 'broad brush' total. I think we are looking for it to start a more definite band or two. That is a question to ask Gary though. I'm just trying to help with the blog. Not so much the forecast. Jeremy

We've not had any problems with DISH Network and 41 in the past hour.  The problem cleared up before Gary's forecast.  Hopefully, everyone with DISH Network is able to see 41 now with no problems.

Kristi

ok...yeah it was further south than harrisonville....the station that said 6+ for south areas......but they stopped the graphic at noon....and they commented that it would not be done snowing then!

so I think 6 inches could easily fall south of me, by the night

It has cleared up! Good forecast Gary!

Kelly

Measurement averaged about 1.0 inch here in Blue Springs. Total is now at 11.0. ************** Thanks for the report! Jeremy

Gary, how much do you think downtown KC will get Thursday?

The other blog in town at noon today said that thursday still looks good.  As in no snow?  They are horrible. and so is their blog. **************** Let's try to keep the focus here and on the weather. We can't control what others do. Jeremy

i could be wrong weatherjaded, but i think he meant it looks good for snow...its obvious that its going to snow on thursday.

jeremy, i didnt say the storm was MUCH stronger than expected, but it certainly was stronger than anticipated.  i was just suggesting that it would be nice if the trend continued.  also, just for the record to keep you guys honest, your forecast was for 22 at noon, yet it turned out to be 11.  no big deal as you guys are still the best and all, but its the truth.  moving on...

clear skies, light winds, snow on the ground.  i would love to see temps bottom out around 0 tonight.   *************** I'm not arguing, just saying our forecast was the best hands down, just the truth:) Gary will have an update on the blog tonight. Probably after the NAM comes out to give some thoughts now that we can put today behind us. Jeremy

If you take a look at the "Hour-By-Hour" forecast on the WeatherChannel.com, by Thursday night at 12 Midnight, the SNOW SHOWERS will be coming into the Kansas City area, shifting to light snow by 2:00A.M. Thursday, and turning into "SNOW" by 5:00A.M.. And from 5:00 A.M. until 4:00 P.M., it will still be snowing.By 5:00 P.M., we will see Partly Cloudy skys. How much snow will we get that whole snowy Thursday? I am thinking maybe between 2-5" of snow! So for that "Snuggle and Read" event, you might be having to change the date. :(. Sorry. *************** I would be surprised if it is snowing at midnight. The WC forecast is computer generated with NO human having any input before it reaches your TV. In all honesty I would trust any blogger here to look at 2 different models and make that same forecast with more accuracy. Just my two cents. Hopefully everyone that has activities can still get them in Thursday. Jeremy

Will there be another blog update tonight? ************** Yes. Jeremy

GFS looks good for 3-7 inches across the area!

i say 5-8 inches of snow for the metro area. Looking at My new models it shows that it will start snowing by 9AM. By noon the metro will have seen 2-4 inches of snow. It will continue to snow till bout 8 or 9 pm and then we will have 5-8 inches of snow with the 8 inches around harrisonville and warrensburg and 5 inches by about levenworth and KCI ************ Your forecast would make many happy. I think the snow starts before 9am though. Jeremy

you guys certainly had the most accurate forecast, as i previously mentioned, you still are the best in the area-on a curve your forecast was great!...  ever since that rain event that was supposed to be ice at the beginning of the winter(early december)...i have refused to look at the nam! it jaded me big time.

alexmarron, i would take the weather channels hour by hour forecast with a grain of salt...however, your snow totals may not be far off!
**************** PVT...you are spot on with the NAM. Really to far south with every storm this season. Or it puts the heavy precip. in the wrong place. I'm waiting for it to catch up and fool us sometime though. But I don't think it will be this time... Jeremy

Yet Jeremy this is brand new data from about 13 minutes ago. Yet you guys will probabily predict 3-5 which was my last snowfall total untill i bumped mine up to 5-8 inches.

If we see more than 4 inches in olathe it will be a victory for Me and my friends. **************** I think 4" would be a victory for everyone that loves snow. Jeremy

chfs327, you really think that we will get that much?! I cant wait then!

Half inch here at best in SE Lee's Summit.

Wanted to add my 2 cents regarding the advisories/lack there of today. The NWS issued a wind advisory for today last night -- which I think was the right call for several reasons.

1.) If you happened to read the content of the initial wind advisory and several follow-up statements, they all mentioned blowing snow and even wind chills as secondary/tertiary issues.
2.) Snow accumulations over 99% of the area were less than an inch. This does not meet advisory criteria. Many areas did not receive more than flurries with the "blizzard-like conditions" over a localized area and certainly on my trip across KC this afternoon, didn't last more than 10-15 minutes in a given spot. It wasn't even snowing that hard, the wind just made it appear that way -- hence why I ended up with a whole lousy 1/2 inch.
3.) The winds howled for a good 8 hours before subsiding. Again the wind was the hazard, not the snow.

Most importantly, 4, regarding accidents -- I was nearly involved in one and at first it wasn't making sense why cars were sliding around in < 1 inch of dry wind blown snow.

If any of you were up between midnight and 6 this morning, you would have witnessed how unbelievably humid it was. As advertised, the dewpoint skyrocketed into the lower 50s and my temp actually climbed all the way back to 57 at 1AM!! The pavement was soaking wet looking like it had rained several hundredths despite fair skies -- a phenomenon we see a couple times a year when the dewpoint rises quickly exceeding the pavement temperatures. With the sharp frontal passage this morning, temperatures dropped some 20-30 degrees in 2 hours (and continued all the way down to the mid teens). This water did not have a chance to evaporate and essentially "flash froze" to the pavement. So, folks were driving about see wind swept snow of little consequence and getting into major accidents because under that snow was basically an ice rink. It's still that way now...you'll note a thin sheet if you brush away the snow.

Looking ahead to Thursday, an interesting storm for sure. At least for once the southern areas stand the best chance and not far northern Missouri. However, experience suggests that the upper low/sfc low track would favor the Ozarks much more than us, especially considering the amount of cold air we have in place would force the best frontogenesis down that way. Considering I have yet to have > 2" in any of the upmteen events this year, this looks like the best shot, but I think for the sweet spot in this storm, you gotta be I-44 bound. Another quick mover too. Well, here's to hoping the track is about 50 miles further north which would certainly get us in the 3-5" range on the south side.

******************* I really had no problems with advisories today. Could have gone either way...we communicated what the weather would be like today so no one that watched Gary last night should have been too surprised. Thursday should be fun...for some:) Jeremy

Gary,

By looking at the extended forecast it looks like I will make it out of MCI on Saturday morning flying into Denver?  Or is there still a chance for the bad weather to be here?
************* Right now it looks good for that time frame. Jeremy

I'm still not convinced this storm is going to track far south like the models are taking it I believe we will see average 5 inch amounts around the metro,and I wouldn't be surprised if this storm shifts north like they have most of winter time.

im thinking up north will get 4 inches Thursday, Jeremy how much do you think that slightly north of the river will get[Parkville]?

Here north of Lawson we got about an inch and a half of snow. It is a little hard to measure though, so I may be a little off. We had to go to Cameron today for a funeral and it was near white out conditions going north on interstate 35. It was pretty slick in spots and just down right nasty. The wind was so strong it was hard to keep the car on the road. I'm looking forward to Thursday and the snow. Will be waiting for the next blog udate...nwmissourigal ************* New info just coming out now... Jeremy

Jeremy/Gary - What does Monday/Tuesday of next week look like?  We are going on a big family vacation to Florida (Disneyworld) and then taking our kids on a surprise Disney cruise.  I want to put my mind at ease and am hoping for no snow/ice so we can get out of KCI on Tuesday morning.  :-)

--------------------

Monday and Tuesday is way too complex to go into at this time, it has trended towards being one of our wetter storms, but I don't have a feel on it yet.

Gary

Jeremy when will you do a new blog. *********** Gary just added some thoughts...maybe more later! Jeremy

My goat loves to watch gary and his team.  He is rooting for a big snow on thursday, so he can go outside and play in it.

Gary. I say 5-8 inches of snow. if we get 4 it will be good but i want 5-8 inches

"It will continue to snow till bout 8 or 9 pm and then we will have 5-8 inches of snow with the 8 inches around harrisonville and warrensburg"

YES!